Is Deshaun Watson in the same fantasy tier as Brady and Brees?
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
It is entirely one thing for a rookie quarterback in his sixth career start to become the first to ever throw for more than 400 passing yards with four passing touchdowns while also rushing for more than 50 yards in one game, but to execute these historic statistics against the mighty Seattle Seahawks and in their stadium is quite ridiculous. Still, this is what Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson achieved Sunday in arguably the best football game of the season, a 41-38 Seahawks win because veteran Russell Wilson and his team’s defense were just a little bit better.
That’s hardly a slight on Watson, of course, as the Clemson product selected 12th overall in the draft totaled 32.8 PPR points, and by the way, he’s already topped that mark in two other games. Watson was ranked as the No. 10 quarterback for Week 8 by ESPN Fantasy’s crew but clearly that wasn’t generous enough. The thought was the Seahawks' defense, perhaps not as dominant as in recent seasons but still really tough and in a top tier with the Denver Broncos, would make things difficult for Watson. Well, the kid didn’t win the game, but it sure didn’t look like things were difficult as he proved himself matchup-proof for fantasy purposes and vaults to the top of the position hierarchy.
After all, no quarterback in history had ever thrown more than 18 touchdown passes in his first seven career games, but Watson, after thriving against the likes of the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns defenses, showed against Seattle it doesn’t really matter which team he’s facing or where. His ability to elude defenders and improvise plays is indeed special, and he might just end up fantasy’s top player this season. After all, the Texans still meet the defenses of the Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers this season, along with the lowly Indianapolis Colts twice! There’s a legitimate debate for Watson versus Tom Brady, and perhaps this rare hot take is driven by Sunday’s events, but who possesses more statistical upside? Brady last reached 20 PPR points in Week 4. Watson is getting there every week!
Further, according to colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft, Watson’s 168.86 fantasy points through his first seven games -- and remember the Texans foolishly started veteran Tom Savage in Week 1! -- represent the third most since 1950, regardless of position. Only Eric Dickerson and Marcus Allen had more. There’s simply no excuse for Watson to be active in only barely a third of ESPN standard leagues in any week -- as he was for this Week 8 -- unless he starts acting like a rookie, which doesn’t seem likely. Trade Brady, Carson Wentz or Drew Brees for Watson? Yeah, that actually appears the proper move.
Second down: As for the other Texans, sophomore wide receiver Will Fuller V hauled in two more touchdowns on five receptions and 125 yards, earning a cool 29.5 PPR points. Fuller has played in four games and caught 13 passes, with seven of them going for touchdowns. Fuller is talented, of course, but that’s an unsustainable rate of touchdowns to receptions and it can’t possibly continue. It doesn’t mean Fuller can’t become a safe WR2, though, because he did see eight targets and there could be more 100-yard games with Watson at the helm. Normally we’d quickly move to trade someone like Fuller, but it’s unlikely someone in your league will fall for believing Fuller will score twice every week, either. DeAndre Hopkins enters Sunday night as fantasy’s top scorer of the week and a potential top-five wide receiver the rest of the way, but Fuller might now be a WR2 as well.
Meanwhile, running back Lamar Miller might seem statistically disappointing this season, with perhaps Watson’s and the passing game’s emergence playing a role, but that’s actually not true. Miller’s performing just fine. It was nice to see the veteran find the end zone twice in Seattle, as he entered the week having scored two touchdowns in six games, both in Week 4 against the Titans. Unlike in his Miami Dolphins days, the perceived problem hasn’t been a lack of touches. Miller has shared some touches with rookie D'Onta Foreman but he’s also reached double digits in PPR scoring in all but one game, so opportunity is there and should remain so. Face it, Miller is more RB2 than top-10 option, but he’s worth activating each and every week.
Third down: As for the Seattle side of this -- the Seahawks did, after all, win the exciting contest -- it’s pretty clear Wilson isn’t slowing down, and part of the reason is the sheer lack of any semblance of a running game for support. Few thought former Packer Eddie Lacy would be great, but he might not be worth the team’s roster spot, let alone a fantasy one. Lacy turned his six rushes Sunday into the same number of rushing yards as you and I: zero. That still beat Thomas Rawls, who rushed for minus-1 yard. There’s no sign of brittle pass-catcher C.J. Prosise suiting up for a game. Wilson has to throw the football, and another thing we’re learning is that it doesn’t have to be to wide receiver Doug Baldwin. Oh, Baldwin led the team with 10 targets Sunday but managed a mere six catches for 54 yards. We still like him and view him as a WR1.
However, Baldwin has topped Sunday’s 11.4 PPR points -- which for context, won’t result in a top-20 performance at the position for Week 8 -- in a mere two games this season, while wide receiver colleagues Paul Richardson, Tyler Lockett and tight end Jimmy Graham each performed better Sunday. Richardson caught two touchdowns, giving him five in the past six games, and he should appear on many more fantasy rosters soon. He’s currently at 10 percent. Lockett had 121 receiving yards, which is a Seahawks season best. And Graham has scored four touchdowns the past three games and reached double digits in PPR scoring five consecutive games. He’s no Zach Ertz, but Seattle’s schedule is eminently friendly the rest of the way and Wilson should be a top-five QB, Baldwin a top-10 WR and Graham perhaps a top-five TE.
Fourth down: Rookie running backs Joe Mixon of the Cincinnati Bengals and Marlon Mack of the Indianapolis Colts faced off Sunday as fantasy managers wondered aloud -- we’ve heard you! -- why these guys aren’t being given the opportunity to reach statistical stardom. Well, perhaps there’s a reason why and it’s time to stop expecting such great results. Mixon turned a short Andy Dalton pass into an exciting 67-yard play that nearly resulted in a touchdown, but on his other touches, and against a poor defense, the Oklahoma product was relatively quiet, as in past weeks. Mixon entered play averaging 3.2 yards per rush. That will drop after he turned his 11 carries into a meager 17 yards. The Colts had permitted more than 170 rushing yards and a total of 77 PPR points to the position the past two games. Mixon hardly stepped up and two of the next three games are at Jacksonville and Denver. He shouldn’t be ranked as a RB2.
Mack continues to make big plays, as he did with his 24-yard catch-and-run for a touchdown Sunday, and for the fifth game of his six he’s delivered a play of 20 or more yards, but unfortunately he’s been consistent in subpar areas as well. Mack rushed 11 times for 27 yards. He’s reached 30 rushing yards in one game. Beloved veteran Frank Gore, meanwhile, rushed for 82 yards and while that was a season best, there’s no indication the Colts will either trade him before Tuesday’s deadline or limit his touches. Mack has recently seen more work in the passing game and perhaps as with Duke Johnson Jr. or Chris Thompson he’ll earn flex status for his receiving work soon, but he’s not there yet. Several rookie running backs are having fantastic seasons, and Mixon and Mack could become valuable and reliable fantasy assets, but they’re certainly not there yet.
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
It is entirely one thing for a rookie quarterback in his sixth career start to become the first to ever throw for more than 400 passing yards with four passing touchdowns while also rushing for more than 50 yards in one game, but to execute these historic statistics against the mighty Seattle Seahawks and in their stadium is quite ridiculous. Still, this is what Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson achieved Sunday in arguably the best football game of the season, a 41-38 Seahawks win because veteran Russell Wilson and his team’s defense were just a little bit better.
That’s hardly a slight on Watson, of course, as the Clemson product selected 12th overall in the draft totaled 32.8 PPR points, and by the way, he’s already topped that mark in two other games. Watson was ranked as the No. 10 quarterback for Week 8 by ESPN Fantasy’s crew but clearly that wasn’t generous enough. The thought was the Seahawks' defense, perhaps not as dominant as in recent seasons but still really tough and in a top tier with the Denver Broncos, would make things difficult for Watson. Well, the kid didn’t win the game, but it sure didn’t look like things were difficult as he proved himself matchup-proof for fantasy purposes and vaults to the top of the position hierarchy.
After all, no quarterback in history had ever thrown more than 18 touchdown passes in his first seven career games, but Watson, after thriving against the likes of the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns defenses, showed against Seattle it doesn’t really matter which team he’s facing or where. His ability to elude defenders and improvise plays is indeed special, and he might just end up fantasy’s top player this season. After all, the Texans still meet the defenses of the Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers this season, along with the lowly Indianapolis Colts twice! There’s a legitimate debate for Watson versus Tom Brady, and perhaps this rare hot take is driven by Sunday’s events, but who possesses more statistical upside? Brady last reached 20 PPR points in Week 4. Watson is getting there every week!
Further, according to colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft, Watson’s 168.86 fantasy points through his first seven games -- and remember the Texans foolishly started veteran Tom Savage in Week 1! -- represent the third most since 1950, regardless of position. Only Eric Dickerson and Marcus Allen had more. There’s simply no excuse for Watson to be active in only barely a third of ESPN standard leagues in any week -- as he was for this Week 8 -- unless he starts acting like a rookie, which doesn’t seem likely. Trade Brady, Carson Wentz or Drew Brees for Watson? Yeah, that actually appears the proper move.
Second down: As for the other Texans, sophomore wide receiver Will Fuller V hauled in two more touchdowns on five receptions and 125 yards, earning a cool 29.5 PPR points. Fuller has played in four games and caught 13 passes, with seven of them going for touchdowns. Fuller is talented, of course, but that’s an unsustainable rate of touchdowns to receptions and it can’t possibly continue. It doesn’t mean Fuller can’t become a safe WR2, though, because he did see eight targets and there could be more 100-yard games with Watson at the helm. Normally we’d quickly move to trade someone like Fuller, but it’s unlikely someone in your league will fall for believing Fuller will score twice every week, either. DeAndre Hopkins enters Sunday night as fantasy’s top scorer of the week and a potential top-five wide receiver the rest of the way, but Fuller might now be a WR2 as well.
Meanwhile, running back Lamar Miller might seem statistically disappointing this season, with perhaps Watson’s and the passing game’s emergence playing a role, but that’s actually not true. Miller’s performing just fine. It was nice to see the veteran find the end zone twice in Seattle, as he entered the week having scored two touchdowns in six games, both in Week 4 against the Titans. Unlike in his Miami Dolphins days, the perceived problem hasn’t been a lack of touches. Miller has shared some touches with rookie D'Onta Foreman but he’s also reached double digits in PPR scoring in all but one game, so opportunity is there and should remain so. Face it, Miller is more RB2 than top-10 option, but he’s worth activating each and every week.
Third down: As for the Seattle side of this -- the Seahawks did, after all, win the exciting contest -- it’s pretty clear Wilson isn’t slowing down, and part of the reason is the sheer lack of any semblance of a running game for support. Few thought former Packer Eddie Lacy would be great, but he might not be worth the team’s roster spot, let alone a fantasy one. Lacy turned his six rushes Sunday into the same number of rushing yards as you and I: zero. That still beat Thomas Rawls, who rushed for minus-1 yard. There’s no sign of brittle pass-catcher C.J. Prosise suiting up for a game. Wilson has to throw the football, and another thing we’re learning is that it doesn’t have to be to wide receiver Doug Baldwin. Oh, Baldwin led the team with 10 targets Sunday but managed a mere six catches for 54 yards. We still like him and view him as a WR1.
However, Baldwin has topped Sunday’s 11.4 PPR points -- which for context, won’t result in a top-20 performance at the position for Week 8 -- in a mere two games this season, while wide receiver colleagues Paul Richardson, Tyler Lockett and tight end Jimmy Graham each performed better Sunday. Richardson caught two touchdowns, giving him five in the past six games, and he should appear on many more fantasy rosters soon. He’s currently at 10 percent. Lockett had 121 receiving yards, which is a Seahawks season best. And Graham has scored four touchdowns the past three games and reached double digits in PPR scoring five consecutive games. He’s no Zach Ertz, but Seattle’s schedule is eminently friendly the rest of the way and Wilson should be a top-five QB, Baldwin a top-10 WR and Graham perhaps a top-five TE.
Fourth down: Rookie running backs Joe Mixon of the Cincinnati Bengals and Marlon Mack of the Indianapolis Colts faced off Sunday as fantasy managers wondered aloud -- we’ve heard you! -- why these guys aren’t being given the opportunity to reach statistical stardom. Well, perhaps there’s a reason why and it’s time to stop expecting such great results. Mixon turned a short Andy Dalton pass into an exciting 67-yard play that nearly resulted in a touchdown, but on his other touches, and against a poor defense, the Oklahoma product was relatively quiet, as in past weeks. Mixon entered play averaging 3.2 yards per rush. That will drop after he turned his 11 carries into a meager 17 yards. The Colts had permitted more than 170 rushing yards and a total of 77 PPR points to the position the past two games. Mixon hardly stepped up and two of the next three games are at Jacksonville and Denver. He shouldn’t be ranked as a RB2.
Mack continues to make big plays, as he did with his 24-yard catch-and-run for a touchdown Sunday, and for the fifth game of his six he’s delivered a play of 20 or more yards, but unfortunately he’s been consistent in subpar areas as well. Mack rushed 11 times for 27 yards. He’s reached 30 rushing yards in one game. Beloved veteran Frank Gore, meanwhile, rushed for 82 yards and while that was a season best, there’s no indication the Colts will either trade him before Tuesday’s deadline or limit his touches. Mack has recently seen more work in the passing game and perhaps as with Duke Johnson Jr. or Chris Thompson he’ll earn flex status for his receiving work soon, but he’s not there yet. Several rookie running backs are having fantastic seasons, and Mixon and Mack could become valuable and reliable fantasy assets, but they’re certainly not there yet.
