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UFC Vegas 62:

1.0 Todorovic by KO/TKO Rd 1/2 +115
0.5 Assuncoa +330
1.0 Cirkunov +180 / 0.3 by SUB +360
1.0 B Davis +135 / 0.3 by SUB +850
0.5 Malkoun by DEC +200
1.0 Hughes +140 / 0.3 by SUB +1100
0.3 Jackson +510

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Grasso KO/TKO Rd3 +2500
Taira win in Rd2 +1000
Brito SUB Rd2 +1500

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Hey ERock do you have any early leans for 280?
I think there are a lot of live dogs on this card, at least at their current prices. Outside of Yan, Fiorot, Borrahlo, Petrosyan, Mokaev and Rosa, the rest of the dogs are worth a strong look, IMO.
 

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UFC 280:

1.0 Oliveira +160 / 0.3 by SUB +325
1.0 Dillashaw +150 / 0.3 by DEC +300
1.0 Dariush +165 / 0.3 by DEC +333
0.5 Fiorot by KO/TKO +490
1.0 Muhammad +125 / 0.3 by DEC +190
1.0 Muradov +180 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +420
1.0 Oezdemir +150 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +310
1.0 Almeida +145 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +700
1.0 Omargadzhiev +155 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +1100

Continued success.
 

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Don't you think the price is a bit too high for Yan?
Not a big fan of Sean but it isn't like Yan is likely to wrestle him
At -260 it seems a bit much for a striking match whith his length and mix of strikes
 

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Don't you think the price is a bit too high for Yan?
Not a big fan of Sean but it isn't like Yan is likely to wrestle him
At -260 it seems a bit much for a striking match whith his length and mix of strikes
I felt like there was a bit of value on O’Malley with the opening numbers, where Yan was -400 or higher, but that value is gone now. I actually think there’s some sliver of value on Yan who I believe is around -250 now. I priced Yan at -300, but I’m not real high on O’Malley who I’ve always thought was a rising star more for his image than his skill set.

That being said, I could just be flat out wrong with this guy. I wasn’t overly impressed when he was fighting really low levels of talent and he looked awful when he stepped up in competition. This is a three rounder though, which favors O’Malley because Yan would have an ever more significant advantage in a five round fight.

The size and length advantage for O’Malley does concern me a bit, but his striking defense is sub par and he’s facing a high volume technical striker with excellent movement, which could lead to tons of issues for O’Malley. Yan has a tendency to start slow, but that may change in a three round fight, especially after giving early rounds away against Sterling last fight, which ultimately cost him.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Yan does take him down at some point, if he gets on top of a hurt O’Malley I think he’ll get the finish via GnP.

I’m going to pass though, maybe throw a sprinkle on something at best.

Anyone you really like on this card?
 

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I also do find it somewhat odd this matchup is even happening now. Apparently White was adamantly against this fight when it was originally discussed, but Maynard and company talked him into it.

What changed? I’m assuming it’s either a.) they actually think O’Malley can win or b.) they feel O’Malley’s star won’t be diminished by a loss to what is essentially the “guy” in the division at the moment.

I would agree with the latter, if this is a highly entertaining war, FOTN type of shit, O’Malley’s star will skyrocket even in a loss. Now if he gets starched immediately or loses a boring one-sided 3-0 type of fight, I would think that would have to put a dent in his image in the short-term.
 

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Adding…..

Some sprinkles, all 0.1

Oliveira SUB Rd1 +1000
Yan KO/TKO Rd3 +1150
Fiorot KO/TKO Rd1 +1100
Omargadziev KO/TKO Rd2 +3200
Rosa win in Rd3 +1500

Continued success.
 

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Wow, that decision was fucking terrible. Unfortunately this sport could be going down the same path as boxing and become unwatchable in a few years.
 

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That's 1 of the worst decisions I've seen for a fight with top tier guys in it. The standup was pretty even but Yan did a whole lot more grappling and wrestling.


Parlayed Yan/Islam, once that lost I just bet Islam for more out of tilt so ended up OK but should've made money on that.

I like Olives and said ITT I liked him vs Gaethje before the weight issue but that win created a huge overreaction to how good he is. Islam was -400 before that for a reason. You aren't beating elite grapplers/wrestlers from guard in 2022.
 

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Dariush may be the best matchup for Islam
He seems to have good TD defense and rolls with it on the ground
I actually think he may be toughr than Volk even though Volk may be more talented size for size

TJ and Sterling was such a disappointment regardless
Think Sterling probably wins either way
TJs movement hasn't seemed the same since the Cruz fight
Something even in his striking seems off
 

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UFC Vegas 63:

1.0 Allen -110 / 0.3 by DEC +240
1.0 Gore +140 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +350
1.0 Rountree +160 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +300
1.0 Dolidize +155 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +525
1.0 Arlovski +210 / 0.3 by DEC +300
1.0 Mota by KO/TKO +165

Continued success.
 

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Some sprinkles……

All 0.1

Hooper SUB Rd3 +1600
Mota KO Rd1 +400
Vanderaa KO Rd3 +2700
Dolidize win in Rd3 +1900
Gore KO Rd1 +900

Continued success.
 

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UFC Vegas 64:

1.0 M Rodriguez ITD +200
1.0 D Rodriguez +100 / 0.3 by DEC +275
1.0 Parisian +125 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +300
1.0 Maness +205 / 0.3 by DEC +500
1.0 Lopez +310 / 0.3 by SUB +1400
1.0 Viana -135 / 0.3 by SUB +360
1.0 Vidal -120 / 0.3 by SUB +500

Continued success.
 

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Some sprinkles…..

All 0.1

M Rodriguez KO/TKO Rd4 +2200
M Rodriguez KO/TKO Rd5 +2900
Dawson win in Rd3 +1200
Minner SUB Rd2 +1300
Viana SUB Rd2 +1400

Continued success.
 

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Izzy -165 vs Pereira is the weirdest opening line I can recall in sometime, I get styles make fights but Pereira would be a dog to like 5-6 guys in this division that Izzy would be a prohibitive -300 fav over

welp, guess I'm gonna have to lose a lot of money on this

Up to -225.....lets make it happen, be that MW GOAT
 

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UFC 281:

1.0 Pereira +190 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +275 / 0.1 KO/TKO Rd2 +1400
1.0 Zhang ITD +100 / 0.1 KO/TKO Rd4 +1600
1.0 Poirier by KO/TKO +165 / 0.1 KO/TKO Rd2 +750
1.0 Riddell +105 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +340
1.0 Reyes by KO/TKO +130 / 0.1 KO/TKO Rd1 +265
1.0 Azaitar by KO/TKO +150
1.0 Arce +175 / 0.3 by DEC +310
1.0 Ulberg -125 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +195 / 0.1 KO/TKO Rd3 +1800

Continued success.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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UFC 281:

1.0 Pereira +190 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +275 / 0.1 KO/TKO Rd2 +1400
1.0 Zhang ITD +100 / 0.1 KO/TKO Rd4 +1600
1.0 Poirier by KO/TKO +165 / 0.1 KO/TKO Rd2 +750
1.0 Riddell +105 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +340
1.0 Reyes by KO/TKO +130 / 0.1 KO/TKO Rd1 +265
1.0 Azaitar by KO/TKO +150
1.0 Arce +175 / 0.3 by DEC +310
1.0 Ulberg -125 / 0.3 by KO/TKO +195 / 0.1 KO/TKO Rd3 +1800

Continued success.
Big Thread in the Main Forum on this Event, stop by.

Do any of these props stand out to you?

 

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Adding…..

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All 0.1

Choi KO/TKO Rd3 +1600
Kowalkiewicz SUB Rd1 +1700
Petroski SUB Rd2 +1600
Blanchfield SUB Rd2 +1500
Hooker KO/TKO Rd2 +950
Edgar by Split/Majority +1200

Continued success.
 

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