drunken MLB 2004

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 1-1 dead even. I am happy to get out of yesterday even. While I could have been 2-0, I could just have easily been 0-2.

YTD; 58-57 +17.54

Wednesday:

New York Mets +163

Big Unit is always overpriced. Glavine can still pitch, ans the rest of the matchup is about even. Too much value to pass on.

Toronto -103

Lilly started off rough but has improved (last 3 starts 2-0, team is 3-0, WHIP 1.12) while Affeldt is 0-3 this year and KC is 0-6 with him pitching. He won't get much help from the bullpen which has an ERA north of 5 in their last 3 games. Toronto is completely the better team and will have a great chance to win this afternoon.

Cleveland +180

Tough to go against Wakefield, but Lee has been decent and the hitting is there for the tribe. I see the value, just have to hope the Cleveland bullpen doesn't blow another. May be worth a shot on the 5-inning line.

Anaheim +180

This line is entirely too high. The As have won both time Sele has pitched, and while Vazquez has also pitched well, Anaheim is at least equal in hitting and bullpen. Yankees lines are almost always over-inflated, but this is a bit more than I expected.

 

[kidslick]

drunken with ya on 2 of your plays tor/clev

i like the over in the yankees games yanks have always hit sele very well very humid out here today with 15 mph winds ball should be jumping i hope.. lol good luck

 

[drunkguy]

kidslick- looks like we both did OK yesterday

Yesterday 3-1 +4.2

YTD; 61-58 +21.74

Thursday:

Montreal +135

Sun-Woo Kim has been effective this year going 2-0 on two starts with WHIP and ERA both close to 1. Doug Davis doesn't have much, and I think the rest of the matchup is fairly even. Montreal also looking to avoid a sweep in this series.

Anaheim +145

Lackey started the season rough but has really improved, winning his last 3. I am not impressed with Lieber, and he got hit on pretty well against Seattle last time out. The Angles won last night, and had every chance to win the night before. I think they really are the superior team here, and still fail to get respect with this big line. With Posada out, it adds even more value on the Angels.

 

[jaypaw]

You beat me to it on anaheim...

Lieber hast started out too well and Lackey - though he hasnt faced a lineup like the yanks yet - has not shown many flaws this year.

I'm suprised the yanks are favored by so much.

GL

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2 losers -2 units

YTD: 61-60 +19.74

Not too much great on the schedule today. Will be out of town all weekend (Atlantic City), so this will be a good chance to take a few days off from baseball and regroup. Should be back Monday, but since it is a short schedule, probably won't pick another play util Tuesday next week.

Pittsburgh +135

Pitching matchup is fairly even here, neither of them are dominant, although Vogelsong looked pretty good last time out. Pittsburgh does have the edge just about everywhere else, particularly on offense where SD (and especially Bons) have been struggling and Pittsburgh has been hot.

Tampa Bay-Cleveland over 9 -125

Two struggling pitchers (both with ERAs over 5). Tampa has not been hitting well, but this might be an opportunity to get their stats up. Cleveland is batting almost .300 versus righties. Indians bullpen is also terrible and shoiuld give up a couple of extra runs. For the trend guys...the last 3 meetings of these teams have gone over the number.

 

[drunkguy]

last time (Friday): 2-0 +2.35

YTD: 63-60 +22.09

For Tuesday:

Chicago Cubs -120

Good pitching match-up, though I have to side with Clement. Otherwise, I see everything else in favor of the Cubs, even without Sosa playing. Giants are struggling badly and they may not be 100% mentally. I think the fact that Sosa may be out and that Clement is coming off a loss is keeping this line down a bit more than it should be.

Minnesota -101

Santana has not been beaten as a starter since last July, and I don't think the Jays are going to be the ones to break that streak. Batista finally got his first win of the season, but still gave up 5 runs in the process. Again, I see this as a one-sided contest and am surprised the line is so low.]

Baltimore +150

Tough to play on a pitcher in his second start, but Cabrera ahowed some decent stuff his last start, allowing only 2 hits in 6 innings against the white sox. Freddy Garcia has been pitching a lot better than his W-L- record would indicate, but has not been getting the run support. However, Garcia may have a harder time against the O's who are hitting over .300 against righties. Overall, I think it is worth taking a shot on Cabrera at this number.

Detroit +165

Bonderman may not be terrific, but with the way they have been swinging the bats, the Tigers are worth a play at this line. Harden has been streaky - he has given up only 1 run three times this season, but two of those have been against weaker hitting teams of Tampa Bay and Seattle (the other time was his last start against Detroit).

Anaheim +145 (2 units)

I see this as more of an even-money proposition. Although the Angel's are dealing with a rash of injuries, Sele has shown some improvement and Vazquez has been slumping. At home, I think this is a nice overlay on a very hot team.

 

[drunkguy]

For some reason my plays didn't post this morning (or maybe I just forgot). I also post them at the other major forums if anyone wants to check up on my honesty

Yesterday: 1-1 dead even

YTD: 67-63 +25.93

Got a lot to do tomorrow, so I am going to hit some overnights...all lines from Pinnacle as of 1 AM

Los Angeles +121

Pitching matchup fairly even here - Ishii has been better but Myers has shown some improvement lately. LA has been hitting well, and Philly has struggled against lefties, especially at home (.211 avg). I think the+121 is a big enough overlay to play on.

Colorado +116
Colorado-Cincinatti under 9 +102

Two hot pitchers here, but I have been very impressed with Joe Kennedy who has a 1.14 WHIP and 2.85 ERA as a Rockies pitcher (in 5 games at Coors he has only given up 10 runs) and in 8 starts he has only given up more than 2 runs twice (3 and 4). Paul wilson has also done well, going 5-0 (and Cinci is 7-1 in his starts). However, the offensive matchup is strongly in favor of Colorado, although I see this being a low scoring game. I wouldn't be surprised to see this finish 2-1 or 2-3, with most of the runs being given up by the relievers.

Baltimore -1.5 +204

I will take a shot with Rodrigo Lopez. IN 12 relief appearances (27.1 innings) he has given up only 1 run and has a WHIP of 0.88. Moyer has been average so far this year and definitely can be hit on. I am playing this on the Alt runline because there is a decent chance that Lopez can totally fizzle in the starter role, although he has two appearances of more than 4 innings and didn't give up a hit in either of them. I figure he has a chance for a great showing, but if not, Baltimore may likely lose. So the Alt RL has the most value in this case.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 1-3 -1.98

YTD: 68-66 +23.95

For Friday, only one play:

Boston +100

Arroyo is coming off a great game against toronto where he gave up only 3 hits and no runs in 8 innings. Boston at home, with a better bullpen, and at even money is a decent bet.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 1-0 +1.00

YTD: 69-66 +24.95

Saturday: getting started a little late :beer Big card and all AL today

Texas +120

Contrearas is going to struggle coming back from the minors and having to go right up against the well-hittiong Rangers. Drese is a good pitcher and should be able to keep this one close enough to win.

Cleveland -107

The pitchers are both about the same statistically (WHIP around 1.20, ERA, around 3.5), but Westbrook is 3-1 his season and Waechter has lost his last 3 due to a lack of run support. Cleveland is a much better hitting team and I expect that to make all the difference.

Toronto +210

Although it is tough to go against Pedro, this line is just way too high for this matchup. Lilly has not been great this season, but at better than 2-to-1, there is too much value to pass up.

Chicago White Sox +120

This is a pretty close matchup. Cotts is making his first start for the White Sox, but he has beend ecent in relief. Radke has shown improvement his last few games. But the Twins are suffering through a bunch of injuries. The Sox are attractive enough as a small underdog to take tonight.

Detroit +150
Detroit-Seattle OVER 8.5 +100

This is a game of two struggling pitchers (both having ERAs over 6.00). I think this is more of a toss-up type game, with either team being able to put together some nice offensive numbers.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 3-3 +0.63

YTD: 72-69 +25.58

Sunday:

St Louis-Chicago UNDER 9.5 -120

Two decent pitchers here: Clement has a 1.09 WHIP and a home ERA of 1.53 and Morris has a 1.06 WHIP. Morris pitched against the Cubs earlier this year and allowed only 4 hits in 9 innnings in a 1-0 win. Cubs are also dealing with a lot of injury trouble. Only thing propping this line up is the wind at Wrigley,but still worth at a shot at 9.5.

Detroit +150

Bonderman coming off his best start of the year and has been pitching well. Garcia has been pitching ok this year but not getting the run support to get the wins. Detroit has the better offense and are a steal at +150.

Anaheim -1.5 +175

This is more of a bet against Cabrera than anything else. He has looked impressive in his first 2 starts up from the minors, but those were against the white sox and mariners, and the angels are going to be a little tougher when swinging the bats. I don't think the rookie luck will continue. Sele is a solid pitcher and he should keep the Baltimore offense in check, and the Anaheim bullpen is solid. I think the blowout potential is here and I see the most value in the runline.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2-1 +1.75

YTD: 74-70 +27.33

Monday, one play on a short card:

Anaheim +100

I find it hard to believe that we are still getting these kind of numbers on anaheim. Blue Jays started off the season horribly and still haven't improved much. Miller is 1-0 for Toronto but the Jays are 1-4 in his starts. Bullpen is still struggling. Lackey has a 3-5 record but statistically is not that bad and 4 of those losses were to above average teams (Texas and New York). I expect Lackey to start pulling in some wins and this is a good spot for that to happen.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 0-1 -1.00

YTD: 74-71 +26.33

Tuesday:

Cincinatti +112

Paul wilson is 6-0 this year and the Reds are 8-1 with him starting. He has been absolutely on fire with a WHIP of 0.84 and an ERA of 1.64 over his last 3. Beckett is good, but still overrated. At first glance, the offensive edge goes to Florida, but both teams actually are having about the same success against right-handed pitchers. Cincinatti is red hot right now, winning 9 of their last 10, and I am very surprised to see them come in as a dog. Usually I avoid these kind of streaking teams, but as a home dog, this is too much vale to pass on.

Chicago Cubs +116

Here we have 2 pitchers going in different directions. Zambrano has been having a great year, but he actually has improved, winning 2 of his last 3 starts (one no decision which the Cubs won) and lowering his WHIP and ERA over the last 3 outings (now down to 0.54 WHIP and 1.13 ERA). Oswalt is 0-2 over his last 3 starts (and Houston lost all 3) with a WHIP of 1.48 and ERA of 5.75 oiver those 3 games. Cubs are having problems with injuries, but they have been hitting fine and have the superior bullpen.

Minnesota -105
Minnesota-Tampa Bay over 9.5 -115

Two pitchers that have been getting hit on pretty good (pitchers have a combined ERA of over 12). Zambrano has been getting absolutely crushed lately (last 3 WHIP of 3.00 and ERA of 14.73) and has gicen up 6 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts. Tampa also has a worse bullpen and usually terrible hitting, making a play on Minnesota at even money look good. I will also play the over due to the below-average pitching in this match. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 games these two pitchers pitched, and Minnesota is 7-1 on the over for the last 8 games.

 

[drunkguy]

Tough day yesterday 1-3 -2.08

Wednesday:

Seattle +122

Moyer looked good last time out and has been improving. Seattle has the better bullpen. This is a match-up of lefties and Seattle actually has the offensive edge here (batting .275 vs lefties compared to the Indians at .255)

Oakland +140

Lowe 0-3 in his last 4 starts with a Whip close to 2 and an ERA at 8.56. This includes his last start against lowly Tampa where he gave up 7 ER on 8 hits in just over 2 innnings pitched. Redman has also been struggling, but not as badly and this pitching match-up is at a minimum even. Slight offensive edge to Boston. The Sox do have the superior bullpen, but that (and home field) are not enough to justify a line of +140 here.

Florida +105

Phelps making his first start for Florida, but has been moderately successful as a reliever. He may have some success tonight, as the Reds have been absolutely horrible against lefties (only batting .211). Florida has the offensive edge and the line is also slightly inflated due to the reds being "red hot" and winning 9 of their last 10.

Will cap the 8 PM and later games in an hour or so...running a little late at the moment.

 

[drunkguy]

Alright, here's the rest for Wed. Big Card:

Texas +157

Benoit is underrated. Since becoming a starter, he is 2-0 in 5 games. His starts have come against some tough hitting teams: Yankees, Boston, Seattle, and Detroit twice. even through that schedule, he has managed to hold a WHIP of 1.29. He has a 5.4 ERA, but he has been getting the run support to keep winning. I see the other matchups in this game as fairly even, so I think this line represents a large overlay.

Chicago Cubs +141

I just have to back Maddux as this big of a dog. Statistically the pitching matchup is fairly even. Houston has an offensive edge (especially considering the injuries to the cubs), but again, this line is more than juicy enough to take a shot with.

Pittsburgh +150

Another nice value play with a good hitting team. Pittsburgh has left a lot of men stranded, which is leading to a deceivingly bad record. I expect that trend to turn around. Pitt also with the better bullpen and batting over .300 against righties. Neither of the pitchers intrigues me much in this game, so i will back the dog that can put up some offensive numbers.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 3-3 +0.77

YTD: 78-77 +25.02

Thursday. I rarely play totals but I see 2 today that I will take a shot with:

Anaheim +112

Washburn has been great this year 7-1. In his last 3 he heas a WHIP of 1.08. Statistically, he is the equal of Halladay, and also has the better offense and better relievers on his side.

Boston-Oakland UNDER 9 -115

Two awesome pitchers here. In their last 3 games: Mulder WHIP 0.59 ERA 1.33; Arroyo WHIP 0.80 ERA 3.15. Although the offenses of these teams are effective, runs will be at a premium today.

Baltimore +134

This game is off the board at many places right now, but I will quote the line from cascade. I was big on Ponson before the season started, and although he has struggled, I have to think he has a lot of upside. Likewise, I have been fading Contreras as much as possible, as I think he has always been overrated. Contreras has a WHIP of 1.76, and I think he will struggle against a O's team hitting .301 vs righties. Baltimore was getting a lot of attention early, but everyone seems to have jumped off the bandwagon since they have been losing (3-7 last 10). This adds some line value, as well as the fact that we are fading the Yankees. I do have some concern aboiut Baltimore's bullpen (ERA over 12 in the last 3), so you may want to consider a 5-inning line.

Seattle-Cleveland OVER 9.5 -105

Meche has been absolutely horrible at 0-5 this year. Over his last 3 he has a 7.71 WHIP. Cleveland will hit well against him. Westbrook has also been slumping over his last 3 with a 5.31 ERA. Cleveland's bullpen also has an ERA over 7.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: starting to string a few bad days together 1-3 -2.15

YTD: 79-80 +22.87

For Friday:

St Louis +150

Carpenter has been pitching very well. In his last 3 he is 3-0 with a WHIP of 0.84 and an ERA of 2.11. Irate the remainder of the matchup fairly even, so +150 represents a good value.

Colorado +135

I see Colorado with the edge in just about every category here...I think this game should be close to a pick.

Texas +115

Dickey has been slumping, but he should have enough to keep Toronto from getting much offense. Texas hits well against lefties (.292) and this offense should be able to score against Lilly.

Cleveland +115

I have to go with Cliff Lee, who has allowed 3 or more runs only twice in 9 starts. Zito has been way off-form this year, so I'm going to hope he stays that way, although Oakland has won in his last 3 starts.

Tampa Bay +185

Waechter is an underrated member of this pitching staff, holding a 1.09 WHIP this season. Tampa Bay has been hitting better, and I have to think they have a decent chance at home against the Yanks.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 2-3 -0.35 units

YTD: 81-83 +22.52

Saturday. Short card today, as I do not see a whole lot of value in these lines. Will probably be a light weekend for me,a s I will be travelling, but I probably will stop in occassionally:

Cincinatti -107

The pitchers are fairly equal here, but Cincinatti has the clear advantage on offense. Cinci has been playing well (8-2 last 10, 3-1 in Acevedo's last 3), and as a team they are hitting close to 0.300 over the last 10.

Anaheim -105

Rauch is coming up from the minors and will be going up against an Angel's team batting .284 against righties. The Angles have won straight games in which Sele pitched (going back to when he was still in relief), and in his last 3 appearances Sele is pitching a 1.18 WHIP and a 2.12 ERA.

 

[drunkguy]

2-0 yesterday +2.00

YTD: 83-83 +24.52

Sunday:

New York Mets +157

This is a pretty even pitching matchup, with the offensive edge going to the Marlins, but +157 is just too much of an overlay in a game which figures to be pretty close and low-scoring.

Colorado +190

Another pure value play. Sure Schmidt has been excellent, but is demanding a larger price than he should especially when Colorado has the offensive advantage. Kennedy has also been pitching better than most think...He has a 1.2 WHIP and 3.49 ERA even though 6 of his 10 starts have been at Coors.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 0-2 -2.00 units

YTD: 83-85 +22.52

Memorial Day. 5 plays over just 3 games today, as I see a few totals I like:

Chicago Cubs +131

Two good pitchers who haven't been pitching well lately. I see this as about a 50-50 proposition, and will gladly take Maddux as a home dog in a very winnable game.

Cincinatti-Florida UNDER 8 -105
Florida -1.5 +155

Over his last three starts, VanPoppel: 0.96 WHIP, 2.89 ERA. He has 4 starts (22.5 innings) this season, and has allowed 0,2,2,4 earned runs in those games. Phelps made his firststart of the season against the Reds and allowed only 1 hit over 7 innings. His WHIP over his last three starts is 0.43 with a 0.00 ERA. Cinci is only batting .203 vs lefties. I think this all adds up to a possible shutout of Cincinatti.

Colorado-San Diego OVER 9 +105
Colorado +165

These two pitchers met on Wednesday to give up a total of 16 runs. Jeennings has been terrible all year, with a 1.96 WHIP and 8.00 ERA. Eaton has a 1.38 WHIP and a 5.92 ERA on the season, but over his last 3 he has a 1.65 WHIP and 9.00 ERA. The combined over-under record of these pitchers is 13-6 favoring the over this season. Both teams have the offense to get plenty of runs in today. I will also take Colorado, because with the way runs should be coming in today, either team should have a decent chance to win.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2-3 -0.14

YTD: 85-88 +22.38

Tuesday. unfortunately no time for write ups today as I am getting back on the road. My plays:

Houston -102
Milwaukee -107
Baltimore +185
Texas +135
Tampa Bay +147