drunken MLB 2004

[drunkguy]

yesterday 1-2 -1.00
YTD: 33-30 +14.00

for Tuesday:

Philly +140

I like Milton as a decent sized dog, and thinki the Phillies bats will start showing up soon.

Florida-Colorado under 13 -115

Two decent pitchers and Oliver has had decent luck at Coors.

New York Mets +113

Glavine has looked great this season, and Nomo with his inflated ERA may be just the cure for the Mets offensive problems

Tampa Bay +175

Tough to go against Wakefield, but Abbott has been the best of the Devil Rays' starters and Tampa bay may be able to get together enough offense to give +175 some nice value.

 

[jaypaw]

Good point man - I'm looking into fading the sox here too with that great +# on Tampa but I still need to convince myself that wake is due to come down to earth...

the -1.5 tampa number is +245 @pinny

tampa has only won 7 but 6 of their 7 have been by 2 or more.

just a thought.

 

[drunkguy]

yesterday: 2-1 (1 no action) +1.38
YTD: 35-31 +15.38

big card for Wednesday:

Colorado +150

Beckett has been getting hit on pretty well this season, so I will side with the home dog. Jennings has had success against the Marlins (3-0 lifetime).

Cincinatti -107

Wilson has been struggling lately but has been getting the offensive support to pull it out. The reds lost 9-8 yesterday, but committed 5 errors and gave up a lot of hits. Kinney did look better last time out, but has not been great this season. I think wilson will show some improve over his last two games and pull out the win.

Chicago White Sox -1.5 +130

Schoenweis has been pitching well this year. Jason Davis gave up 6 runs and 10 hits his last time out to Detroit (who ended up winning 17-3), and he has given up 17 runs in 4 starts this season. I like the chances of the white Sox winning this one in a blowout.

Detroit +154

Maroth looks much better than last year, and the Detroit bullpen has been solid. Tough to go against Colon, but he is on the road and the Tigers have a good offense that should be able to hit on him.

Oakland -115

Quite honestly, the As are a better team in every respect, especially with Mulder on the mound. I have been fading Contreras since last year, and think he will have yet another sub-par outing. The only thing holding this line this low is the popularity of the Yankees.

Tampa Bay +204

It doesn't look like anyone has a line on this right now, but I see this on RX live lines, so I will use it. Abbott has been pitching well and I think he can han9 in there. Boston has the superior starter and the bullpen looks great right now, but I have to think Tampa has a chance to win this one, and see value in the huge line. I would play at anything down to about +190. For my record, I will readjust if this line is way off anything available, or count it as "no play" if the line is below 190 when it opens up.

 

[drunkguy]

terrible day yesterday: 1-5 -3.68 units
YTD: 36-36 +11.7 units

For Wednesday. Only one play now, may add later:

Tampa Bay (game 1) +140

Zambrano started off hot and has cooled off a little but is still on top of his game. Kim is coming off rehab and I don't think he will be pitching up to form.

 

[drunkguy]

A little short on time today, so I will dispense with the writeups. Big card coming:

lost 1 yesterday

overall 36-37 +10.7

Cinci +185
Pit +140
Chic -131
Fla -135
Det 145
Bal -116
Oak -113
CWS +115
Min -107

 

[drunkguy]

In a bit of a slump lately. Too busy looking at the Derby to get to the early games

yesterday: 3-5 (1 no action) -2.42
YTD: 39-42 +8.28

For Saturday:

Pit -108

Oliver Perez has been having a hell of a season, while Obermueller has really struggled as a starter.

 

[drunkguy]

no plays yesterday, last time out 1-0 +1 unit

YTD: 40-42 +9.28 units

For Monday I have a pretty big card, with 6 plays against a small schedule of 7 games:

Cincinatti +220

Pure value play, Wilson is undefeated and Oswalt has been a bit off his game lately. We'll see if Cinci can at least steal the last one in this series.

Chicago White Sox +108

Schoenweis is the stronger pitcher even though he struggles last time out. Chicago bats should have an easy time against Aionsworth

Cleveland +180

Another value play with the big home dog. Tough to go against Schilling, but he hasn't been on top of his game this year (except for his last outing), and the BoSox have been struggling (lost last 3). Westbrook has been pitching great for Cleveland.

Tampa Bay +146
Tampa Bay-Texas UNDER 10.5 -120

Abbott. though not great last time out, has been pitching well this year. The same can be said for rogers. Rangers are on a streak and a little overrated, giving us some added value on the dog. I think both pitchers come out strong as give us a "pitchers duel" tonight.

Detroit +190

I see a lot of value on the board today, and this is another one of them. Marith beat Colon last time they faced each other. The teams match up fairly even offensively, and neither bullpen is stunning, so I will make a play on what I see as an inflated line.

 

[drunkguy]

good day yesterday: 4-2 +4.08

YTD: 44-44 +13.36

I don't see too much tempting for Tuesday, so only one play:

Tampa Bay +129

I have been backing Zambrano quite a bit this season, and feel he is the fastly superior pithcer today. Run support has been lacking, but there is added value due to Tampa Bay on a losing streak while Texas has been red hot and scored a ton yesterday, driving the line higher than it should be.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 1-0 +1.29

YTD: 45-44 +14.65

For Wednesday:

San Diego/Atlanta UNDER 9 -110

Wells has pitched better than his stats suggest. Wright has also been decent and I wouldn't count on either of these offenses to have an explosive game.

Colorado -103

Kennedy has been pitching well, and don't take the Montreals hitting performance last game to continue. Day has also not been horrible, but got rocked last time out against the dodgers.

Cincinatti +100

I have a lot of faith in Acevedo although he hasn't looked good in his last few outings. Milwaukee is less than impressive, so I will side with the home team. There is also a heavy Pinnacle lean on Cincinatti here, as they now have Cinci as the favorite.

Baltimore -105

I has high hopes for Ponson this season and he hasn't been living up to expectations. I expect him to get back on track. Buehrle has not ben tterrific either. Baltimore has the better offense, bullpen, and is at home.

Minnesota +126 (2 units)

This looks like a trap to me, but I can't help but to take it. Silva has been pitching well and is getting the run support to win. Piniero actually looks horribly out of form. I would have expected this line to be a pick or worse. Either I am missing something and am horribly wrong, or this is the best bet I've seen in awhile.

 

[drunkguy]

yesterday 4-1 +4.47

YTD: 49-45 +19.12

For Thursday:

Pittsburgh +200

Comparing these two teams, I don't think there is that much of a disparity between these teams to have this big of a line. Houston has been dominating Pittsburgh, but Benson has been good and is coming off his best game of the year.

Bos -1.5 +105

I expect Pedro to improve from his last time out and although he hasn't been stellar this year, I think he will start getting into rhythm soon. Sabathia has been good this year, but coming off a 2-week break due to an injury to his throwing arm

Minnesota +140

Radke coming off a great game. Garcia has been pitching well, but has not had the run support he needs, which will make all the difference here in what should be a low-scoring game.

Oakland +150

Tough to go against the streaking Yanks, but Harden is underrated and I think the As steal one at home here.

Tampa Bay +160

This line is a just a bit too high to pass on. Although his record doesn't show it, Gonzalez has been effective and with a little help from the offense, has a good chance to pull off the win today.

 

[drunkguy]

Just to give everyone a head's up...I have been invited to a guest appearance on "Luke's Bet On It", a radio show that airs on Tan Talk 1340 AM in Tampa FL and is also broadcast on instantfm.com. The show airs from 3-5 PM on Friday (my segment should start around 4). They put together a great show and it is definitely worth tuning in each week. The shows are also archived on the website. I will be talking a little bit about baseball handicapping tomorrow. Thanks to Luke for inviting me on.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 2-3 -0.45
YTD: 51-48 +18.67

Reminder: see post above about my appearance on instantfm.com this afternoon. I'll talk about a couple of the selections today

For this afternoon:

Colorado +205

Tough to go against Zambrano at home, but Estes has also been pitching well and the value is there at more than 2-1


Will be back later for the late games.

 

[drunkguy]

looks like I will start off with one loser. My picks from "Bet On It" have a *

rest of the card for a pretty big day. I am running late for happy hour, so no writeups today:

Montreal +165
Los Angeles +102
Chicago/Tor under 10 -120
Boston -1.5 +105
*Cleveland +110
*Oakland -115
*Tampa +190

 

[drunkguy]

squeezed out a profit yesterday 4-4 +0.67

YTD: 55-52 +19.34

For Saturday:

Philadelphia +120

I see this as a pretty even matchup. Arizona has been hitting better, but Philly has the better bullpen and will start to improve offensively.

Detroit +165

Texas and Dickey, while good, are a bit overrated at this point. Detroit is competent enough to pull this off and I think this line is a bit overinflated.

 

[TheGeneral+]

Nice profits DG.

Keep it up

 

[drunkguy]

Thanks General. I look forward to meeting you and the rest of the RX crew in Vegas.

ground out a little profit yesterday 1-1 +0.2

YTD: 56-53 +19.54

Sunday:

Colorado +140 (2 units)

Joe Kennedy is still highly underrated.He has pitched 6 games thsi season, has a 4-0 record and the Rockies have gone 5-1 in his starts. Heis pulling a 1.05 WHIP and 2.23 ERA even though 4 of those starts have been at Coors field. Cubs are obviously a public team, adding value to this play, and Mitre has not been terrfic.

San Diego +145

I see this as a airly even matchup. Beckett has not been great and Eaton is pitching a little better than his record would suggest. I see a lot of value at +145.

Tampa Bay +170

I will continue to ride Zambrano. Washburn has not been pitching well but is 5-1 due to getting a wholw lot of offensive support.

 

[drunkguy]

tough day yesterday 0-3 -4.00 units, but those will happen when playing a lot of dogs

YTD: 56-56 +15.54

Only one play on Monday's short card:

Cleveland +200

This is more of a play against Kim. Neither pitcher has been pitching well, but this is only Kim's second start this season and he got hit hard by Cleveland his last time out. Cleveland's offense can hang with Boston, so 2-1 is a very big overlay to me. For those of you that play half-time lines, you may want to take a look at Cleveland over the first 5 innnings before Boston's bullpen comes in late.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 1-0 +2.00

YTD: 57-56 +17.54

Tuesday: I see a lot of potential plays today, but most are still up in the air. Probably will be back later with a few more

Anaheim +160

Thought the pitching matchup favors New York, Escobar should be able to hang in there and the Angels have been hitting better and have the better bullpen.

Minnesota -135

Silva has been hot and Piniero is not. I see pretty much everything in favor of Minnesota and the line is a little short for being at home.

 

[BlackampGold]

DG - Great job this year with those doggies! I have really hit a cold spell after starting out hot so you will be happy to know I am taking Seattle today. Lots of value with a team on a 9-game winning streak so good luck with Anaheim.

 

[drunkguy]

B&G - I saw you on Seattle which gave me a little hesitation on Min. With baseball you never know what can happen. Good luck with your plays today