drunken MLB 2004

[drunkguy]

For those who never followed me before, I play almost all my plays for 1 unit. I will occassionally throw out a higher rated play, but only rarely. You will never see me laying big chalk (over -150 or so) and I will be generally be playing low-to-medium dogs. That is where I see the most value and where I have had the most success.

Last year was my first year posting baseball (actually my first year on the forums period). My record:

regular season: 48-46 +7.41 units
post season: 13-6 +14.39 units


for April 4:

Baltimore +172 (Boston) [2 units]

Some value has been taken out of this Baltimore line - it opened about a dime higher. With that said, Baltimore's lineup is much stronger than last year, Pedro has been struggling in the Spring, and injuries to the Sox are going to hurt their run production. I do think Ponson will be able to control the game early. I think this is a big overlay for Baltimore backers.

If Pedro does have a good game, Bostons bullpen should be able to screw it up enough to keep us in it.

Baltimore is much improved from last year, and I think this is not represente din the line. It will take a few weeks before the betting public sees what they can do and the lines catch up. O's are one of my picks for a most improved team this year, and I think they may catch the big favorites (and a lot of bettors) sleeping. I love the O's as a big home dog.

One more note: it looks to me that Pinnacle is looking for Baltimore money today. This is just a word of warning...

 

[jaypaw]

GL drunkman

 

[Mosi]

Best of luck this season Drunk.

 

[drunkguy]

Damn..too much activity in this forum, I was laready down to the bottom of the page

jaypaw, mosi - thanks for the words of encouragement

nice start . maybe I should quit now

1-0 +3.44 units

For Monday:

Pittsburgh +145

Wells is a decent pitcher...went 5-3 with ERA around 2 at home last year. Milwood a little out of form as of late. Like my last play I am going against a big public fav (Philly's a lock to win the division, right?) on the road. Line value is there.

San Diego +100

I am pretty big on the Padres this year and think they will be much improved. Dodgers very poor offensively, and while Lawrence is not a pitcher I would like to rely on, he did finish the season decently last year and hopefully will pick up from there. I can't say I am entirely excited about this bet at only +100, I still think it has some value.

 

[Journeyman]

Nice call Drunk...the O`s offense will keep them in games this year...any of the young arms emerge and they are a threat to win 88-90 games...Finally a step in the right direction!

Good to see you here posting with analysis.

 

[drunkguy]

thanks J-man

3-0 +5.89

For 4/6

Tampa Bay +195

First off, this is not a particularly strong play for me. However, I think the line value is there enough to take a shot. We saw this matchup just a few days ago in the season opener in Japan. Zambrano looked OK vs the Yanks lineup (3 runs, 6 hits in 6 innnings), while Mussina got worked for 10 hits and 5 runs over 5 innings. Does this mean Zambrano owns the Yanks? Probably not. But getting 2-1 at home is too much to pass up, especially since the DRays will have some confidence.

 

[drunkguy]

4-0 +7.84

a big card for me today

Chicago/Kansas City under 10 -105 (2 units)

Loiaza and May are both coming off great years last year. LIne is a bit overinflated due to the 16 runs scored yesterday (although 6 of those came in the 9th). As long as the Sox bullpen doesn't fall apart again, this this should stay well under the number.

Cincinatti +170

Another big home dog coming off a loss yesterday in which they had decent offensive production against Wood, even without Griffey, who should return tonight. I think the pitching matchup is fairly even, and Sosa had trouble hitting yesterday.

Milwaukee +185

Milwaukee has started off hot, and I can't pass when getting almost 2-1. They are hitting and scoring real well (15 runs in first 2 games). I am a little hesitatnt to back Kinney, but he did look decent at times last year and I am hoping he will show some improvement.

Chicago White Sox -115

Loazia is the better pitcher here. They should have won last night, and I will take them as small away favs tonight.

 

[Dante]

nice calls Drunkguy

 

[drunkguy]

Thanks Dante

7-1 +11.54

For 4/8

Cincinatti +155

Extra motivation for the Reds to win their home series against divisional rivals. Although Acevedo doesn't get much attention, he has the potential to put otgether omse good games this year, and a decent offense to back him up. As with the past few days, I see a lot of value with the big home dog in what I see as a fairly even matchup.

Milwaukee +170

I think Capuano may surprise here. I'm not really sold on St Louis in general, and think Milwaukee can steal another close one.

New York Mets +150

Not particulalry strong pitching on either side of this, so I will go with the Mets who have been consistent over the past two games.

Chicago White Sox +220

This is a pure value play. I don't think you should ever be getting this much on the white sox this season, especially since the Yanks have been underacheiving

 

[drunkguy]

9-2 +13.79

(Mets game was no action yesterday)

For 4/9 - an unusually big card today

Milwaukee +160

Here we have a team who just took 3 out of four in St Louis returning home to face another division rival. Houston meanwhile droped 2 out of 3 at home to the Giants. Was Houston maybe a bit overrated in the preseason? Only time will tell. Brewers don't have the most solid pitcher today in Obermueller, but it is always nice to be getting big odds with a hot team at home.

Colorado +145

We have two inconsistent pitchers matching up on two fairly mediocre teams. I'll take the odds in this situation. I see this closer to an even money situation today.

Toronto +140

Toronto is the AL East team everyone forgets about. They have a pretty potent line-up, and going up against a rookie today. Don't let their disastrous series aginst Detroit lead you astray. Lilly will hopefully step up this year.

Chicago White Sox +205

Just like yesterday, more of a value play and a play against the Yankees than anything else. Again, I don't believe the White Sox should ever be getting that much. I've never been totally sold on Contreras either.

Baltimore -130

I see everything on Baltimore's side in this one, especially the pitching matchup. Ponson is going to be one of my top pitchers to bet on this year. I usually avoid taking road favorites, but this one looks too good to pass on.

 

[jimmyk+]

Lily has pitched well vs the Sox recently , he's not intimidated by this line-up, plus, lefties in afternoon games at Fenway always a good angle. Add to that the long flight/delay for the Sox after extra innings in Balt. last night , and this looks like a good 'dog here

 

[drunkguy]

2-3 yesterday to barely squeak out a profit. hungover capping does not equal good capping, so I took the morning off. besides, a lot of value is gone with a bunch of dogs winning this week, so I am going to take it slow. Onl one play tonight.

YTD: 11-5 +13.94


Toronto +145 (you probably can find 150 if you look)

Halladay looked like crap last time out, but he is still a solid pitcher. Pedro looks a little shakeier, and a little slower, than usual. With Damon out, I think the Jays have a good shot to win this one on the road.

 

[drunkguy]

11-6 +12.94

back into the weekly grind, only two for me today:

Cinci +155

Wilson looked good last time out: 4 hits and 6 SO in 7 innnings, no runs against the Cubbies. Wolf not so great looking against Pittsburgh. It's still early in the season, but so far Cinci looks to have a better bullpen and the bats seem to be swinging alright. +155 is too much to pass on.

Cleveland -107

We just saw this matchup a few days ago when Cleveland dominated 11-4. Lohse looked absolutely awful, giving up 9 hits and 5 runs in 4 innings. I like cleveland to win this matchup again at home.

A couple other games look interesting to me (Pit +200, Mil +150, Hou +135, Texas +135) but not good enough to bite on

 

[Kapusta]

DrunkGuy-I'm on the same two games Good Luck to us!

 

[drunkguy]

I am taking Tampa Bay +270 right now. Will update other plays tomorrow

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

Keep up the good work DD. These doggies are alive.

 

[drunkguy]

Thanks MFG

Yesterday: 2-0 +2.55
Overall: 13-6 +15.49

Tonight:

Houson -128

Last time out Clemens looked great, Suppan not so hot. Both teams decent hitting, but the Astros bullpen was able to shut down St Louis last night.

Milwaukee +145

Capuano looked impressive last time out. I see this as a fairly even matchup, so I have no problem taking the generous dog line. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Bonds come out a little flat tonight.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 1-1 dead even

YTD: 14-7 +15.49

Feeling a little under the weather today, so I will keep it short:

Baltimore +150

Baltimore won 10-3 last time these two pitchers squared off. POnson did not have a great outing that time, but I do think he will improve and be able to handle the Boston hitters.

May add another one later.

 

[jaypaw]

This year they havent squared off - do you mean last year?

Ponson won earlier this year vs Pedro final score 7-2

 

[drunkguy]

Earlier game scratched, and please ignore my flu-induced delirium on that write up :lol:

Adding:

NY Mets -106

Yates looked pretty decent last time out, Piazza returning to the linrp. Thompson did not look terrific last time out.