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SUNDAY, JANUARY 22​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
CIN at BUF03:00 PMCIN +6.0
U 49.0
+500 +500
DAL at SF06:30 PMDAL +4.0
O 46.5
+500 +500
 

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Armadillo Sports

49ers 19, Cowboys 12
Game was 9-9 after three quarters.
Prescott threw INT in red zone just before halftime, when they trailed 9-6.
Rookie QB Purdy is 7-0 in his first seven NFL starts.
49ers visit Philadelphia next week in the NFC title game.

Bengals 27, Bills 10
Bengals’ first two drives: 16 plays, 151 yards, 14 points.
Mixon ran 20 times for 105 yards and a TD.
Bengals ran ball for 172 yards (5.1 yards/carry)
Cincinnati @ Kansas City is next week’s AFC title game.

— Joe Burrow is now 5-1 in NFL playoff games; all the other QB’s in Bengals’ history are a combined 5-14 in playoff games.

— Chiefs’ backup QB Chad Henne led a 98-yard TD drive Saturday, while Patrick Mahomes was getting his sprained ankle looked at. Henne was 5-7 passing for 23 yards in his brief stint; all season long, he had taken a total of 18 snaps.

The 37-year old Henne is 18-36 as an NFL starter, earning around $40M in his career. He’s started one game since 2014, but he was ready when needed Saturday.

— Odds for the conference championship games next week:
49ers @ Eagles (-2.5, 45.5)
Bengals @ Chiefs (-1.5, 47.5)
 

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CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

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PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) in home games after a win in the current season.

KANSAS CITY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) against conference opponents in the current season.




NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships


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NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships


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SAN FRANCISCO (15 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (15 - 3) - 1/29/2023, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (14 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (15 - 3) - 1/29/2023, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
CINCINNATI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CINCINNATI is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Conference Championships


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Trend Report
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San Francisco @ Philadelphia
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco

Cincinnati @ Kansas City
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


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The Niners are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in four of San Francisco's last five games.
The Niners are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of Philadelphia's last five games.
The Eagles are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games.
The Eagles are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games.
The Niners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against Philadelphia.
The Niners are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against Philadelphia.
The Niners are 5-1 SU in their last 6 road games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of Philadelphia's last five matchups against San Francisco.
 

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The Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games.
The Bengals are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Kansas City.
The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
The Chiefs are 6-0 SU in their last six games.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 14 games against Cincinnati.
The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last five home games.
The Bengals are 7-1 SU in their last eight matchups against Kansas City.
The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
 

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

49ers (15-4) @ Eagles (15-3)

— San Francisco won its last 12 games (10-2 ATS)
— Last four times 49ers were in playoffs, they went WWL
— 49ers outscored last ten opponents 192-66 in second half.
— 49ers are 11-0 when they score 24+ points, 4-4 when they don’t.
— Last four games, 49ers converted 78-157 (49.7%) on third down.
— In 11 post-bye games, 49ers ran ball for 151 yards/game.
— 49ers (+2.5) lost 44-23 at KC in their one game as underdog this season.
— Over is 9-4 in their last 13 games.
— 49ers are +24 in turnovers in their wins, minus-8 in losses.
— Shanahan is 58-48 as an NFL coach, 6-2 in playoff games.
— Rookie QB Purdy is 7-0 as NFL starter; last week was his first playoff game.
— Third time in last four years 49ers are in NFC Championship game (1-1 last two)

— Eagles won six of their last eight games.
— Eagles are 2-3 in playoffs since winning Super Bowl five years ago.
— Since 2010, Eagles are 3-3 SU in home playoff games.
— Philly is 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS at home this season.
— Under is 4-1 in last five Eagle games.
— Last 11 games, Philly converted 67-138 3rd down plays (48.6%).
— Last eight games, Eagle opponents converted 40-120 (33.3%) on 3rd down.
— Philly gave up 32-40-20 points in its losses this season.
— Siranni is 24-12 as a head coach, 1-1 in playoff games.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 10-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Hurts is 24-11 as NFL starter, 1-1 in playoff games.
— Last time Eagles were in Super Bowl was 2017, with Pederson/Foles as coach/QB.

— Teams last met in Week 2, 2021 (49ers won 17-11 @ Philly)
— Eagles won seven of last ten series games.
— Since 2005, 49ers are 1-3 ATS in visits to Philadelphia.
— Last nine times conference title game was #1-#2 seed game, #1-seed was 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS.

Bengals (14-4) @ Chiefs (15-3)
— Cincinnati won its last ten games (13-3 ATS last 16).
— Cincy is 5-1 SU/5-1 ATS in last six playoff games; before last year, they hadn’t won a playoff game since 1990.
— Cincinnati is 7-3 SU on road TY; they won last five road tilts.
— Bengals are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Three of Bengals’ four losses are by 3-3-2 points, all on last-second FG’s.
— Bengals are 13-0 if they score 21+ points, 1-4 if they score 20 or less.
— Cincy converted 95 of last 194 (49%) third down plays.
— Bengals scored 40 TD’s on their last 116 drives.
— Bengals ran ball for 172 yards LW (previous four games, total of 230).
— Bengals scored 118 points on last 22 red zone drives.
— Last five games, Bengals are +6 in turnovers.
— QB Burrow is 5-1 in playoff games; he also won a national title at LSU.

— Chiefs won 13 of last 15 games (6-9 ATS).
— KC has now been favored in its last 15 playoff games.
— Chiefs were held under their team total in eight of last 11 games.
— Chiefs are 10-14-1 ATS last 25 games as home favorite (4-4 TY).
— Last two games, Chiefs converted 16-41 third down plays (39%).
— Last four games, opponents converted 24-65 on third down (36.9%).
— Chiefs have 89 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 57.
— Chiefs lost field position battle in nine of last 13 games.
— Mahomes is 9-3 in playoff games.
— Chiefs are in 5th straight AFC title game (2-2 previous four)
— Last three years, Chiefs are 8-2 in playoff games.
— Reid is 20-16 in playoff games, 10-7 with the Chiefs.

— Chiefs (-2.5) lost 27-24 in Cincinnati on December 4th.
— Bengals won seven of last eight series games.
— Cincinnati is 3-3 ATS in last six visits to Arrowhead.
— Since 2003, when #1-seed is playing a #3 or lower seed in conference title game, the #1-seed is 6-4 ATS in those games.




NFL
Weather Report

Conference Championships


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SUNDAY, JANUARY 29

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
SF at PHI03:00 PMSF +2.5
U 45.5
+500 +500
CIN at KC06:30 PMCIN + 2.0
U 48.0
+500 +500
 

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Armadillo Sports

Eagles 31, 49ers 7
Total yardage was 269-164, Eagles; San Francisco completed only 11 passes the whole game.
49ers’ only touchdown drive was 46 yards.
San Francisco was an underdog twice this year; they lost those games 44-23/31-7.
I’m a Rams’ fan; this result is fine with me, but the game wasn’t fun to watch.

— San Francisco’s last five playoff appearances:
2012: W-W-L34-31 in Super Bowl
2013: W-W-L23-17 in NFC title game at Seattle
2019: W-W-L31-20 in Super Bowl
2021: W-W-L20-17 in NFC title game at LA Rams
2022: W-W-L31-7 in NFC title game at Philadelphia

Chiefs 23, Bengals 20
Butker kicked a 45-field goal with 0:03 left for the win.
Late hit on Mahomes out of bounds on previous play set up the winning FG.
Mahomes threw for 326 yards and two TD’s- he was the 10th pick of the 2017 Draft.
Bears took Mitch Trubisky with the 2nd pick in that draft, which explains a lot.

Chiefs’ first three drives: 27 plays, 175 yards, 13 points.
Chiefs rest of the game: 39 plays, 182 yards, 10 points.
Bengals had nine penalties for 71 yards, Chiefs 4 for 55 yards.
Kansas City is now 3-2 in AFC title games the last five years.

— Super Bowl losers who get to the conference title game the next season are now 8-6.

— This is the first time in five years that two #1-seeds are playing in a Super Bowl; last five times two number 1 seeds met in the Super Bowl, the underdog won four times.

— Opening Line on the Super Bowl: Chiefs opened at -1.5, with a total of 49.5, but soon after that money moved the line to Eagles -2.5.
 

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SUPER BOWL

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PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) in home games after a win in the current season.

KANSAS CITY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in the current season.




NFL
Long Sheet

Championship


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KANSAS CITY (16 - 3) vs. PHILADELPHIA (16 - 3) - 2/12/2023, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Championship


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kansas City @ Philadelphia
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games


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Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City
is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Kansas City's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
 

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Championship

Eagles (16-3) vs Chiefs (16-3)

— Eagles won eight of their last ten games.
— Eagles won their two playoff games, 38-7/31-7
— Eagles are 7-1 SU away from home this season.
— Philly is 3-2 ATS vs AFC teams TY; they had been 6-11 in previous 17.
— Under is 5-1 in last six Eagle games.
— Last 12 games, Philly converted 72-153 3rd down plays (47.1%).
— Last nine games, Eagle opponents converted 42-128 (32.8%) on 3rd down.
— Philly gave up 32-40-20 points in its losses this season.
— Siranni is 25-12 as a head coach, 1-2 in playoff games.
— Eagles are 1-2 in Super Bowls; their win was five years ago.
— Hurts is 25-11 as NFL starter, 2-1 in playoff games.
— Eagles beat Arizona 20-17 on this field in Week 5.

— Chiefs won 14 of last 16 games (7-9 ATS).
— KC had been favored in its last 15 playoff games.
— Chiefs were held under their team total in nine of last 12 games.
— Chiefs are 0-1 ATS as an underdog thus year (lost 24-20 to Bills)
— Last two games, Chiefs converted 23-55 third down plays (41.8%).
— Last five games, opponents converted 30-79 on third down (37.8%).
— Chiefs started season with a 44-21 win on this field.
— Mahomes is 10-3 in playoff games.
— Chiefs are in Super Bowl for third time in five years.
— Last three years, Chiefs are 9-2 in playoff games.
— Reid is 21-16 in playoff games, 11-7 with the Chiefs.
— Reid is 3-0 against his old team, the Eagles.

— Last five times two #1-seeds played in Super Bowl, underdog went 4-1.
— Underdog is 7-4 ATS in last eleven Super Bowls.
— AFC won five of last eight Super Bowls SU.
— Prediction: Chiefs, 27-26
 

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C/Notes and U/Dog...........BOL with your action today guys......
thank you for all your time and thought's this past season......
much appreciated...........indy
 

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SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 12

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
KC at PHI06:30 PMKC +1.0
U 51.0
+500 +500
 

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