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SATURDAY, JANUARY 14​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
SEA at SF04:30 PMSF -9.5
U 42.0
+500 +500
LAC at JAC08:15 PMLAC -2.5
U 47.5
+500 +500
 

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Armadillo Sports

Jaguars 31, Chargers 30
Chargers led 27-0 with 1:00 left before halftime.
Lawrence in 1st half: 10-24, 77 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT’s
Lawrence in 2nd half: 18-23, 211 yards, 3 TD’s
Jacksonville won, despite being minus-5 in turnovers.

I cannot emphasize enough how rare it is for an NFL team to be minus-5 in turnovers and still win the game. Doug Pederson is 5-2 as a head coach in the playoffs.

49ers 41, Seahawks 23
Seattle led this game 17-16 at halftime.
49ers had nine drives; they scored 4 TD’s, kicked 4 FG’s.
San Francisco averaged 10.5 yards/pass attempt.
Metcalf caught 10 passes for 136 yards, 2 TD’s for Seattle.




NFL
Weather Report

Wild Card Round


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The total has gone OVER in five of Dallas' last seven games.
The Cowboys are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games.
The Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
The total has gone OVER in four of Tampa Bay's last five games.
The total has gone UNDER in six of Tampa Bay's last seven games against Dallas.
The Bucs are 4-1 SU in their last five home games.
The Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against Tampa Bay.
The Cowboys are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games against Tampa Bay.
The Cowboys are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
 

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SUNDAY, JANUARY 15

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
MIA at BUF01:00 PMBUF -14.0
O 44.0
+500 +500
NYG at MIN04:30 PMNYG +3.0
O 48.0
+500 +500
BAL at CIN08:15 PMBAL +8.5
O 40.0
+500 +500
 

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Armadillo Sports

— In the history of the NFL, there have been 692 games where one team was +5 or better in turnovers; those teams are 657-30-5.

In playoff games, teams with a +5 or better turnover ratio were 26-0 before the Chargers lost in Jacksonville Saturday night— now they’re 26-1.

Bills 34, Dolphins 31
— Buffalo led 17-0 early in 2nd quarter.
— Dolphins led 24-20 midway thru 3rd quarter.
— Bills outgained Miami, 423-231.
— Last three Buffalo games went over the total.
— Bills host Cincinnati in next round Sunday afternoon.

— Bills won their last eight games, scoring 32-35-35-34 in last four.
— Last three games, Buffalo converted 30-53 third down plays.
— Miami lost six of its last seven games overall.
— Dolphins’ last six games were all decided by 6 or less points.
— Miami lost its last five playoff games; their last win was in 2000.

Giants 31, Vikings 24
— QB Jones threw for 301 yards, ran for 78 more.
— Giants’ first four drives: 35 plays, 316 yards, 24 points.
— Giants outgained Minnesota, 431-332.
— Giants converted 7-13 third down plays.
— Giants visit Philadelphia in next round Saturday night.

— Last six years, #6-seeds are 9-3 SU/11-1 ATS in this round of playoffs.
— Giants are 14-4 ATS this season, 6-2 as a road underdog.
— Kirk Cousins is now 1-3 in his career in playoff games.
— Over was 8-2 in Minnesota’s last ten games.
— Vikings were 13-5 this season, but were outscored by 10 points.

Bengals 24, Ravens 17
— Bengals scored on a 98-yard fumble return for a TD with 11:37 left, after QB Huntley lost the ball trying to score on a QB sneak.
— Ravens outgained Cincinnati 364-234, to no avail.
— Baltimore was 9-2 this year giving up 20 or less points, 1-6 if they give up 20+.
— In their last seven games, Baltimore scored 13.1 ppg.
— Since 2015, Ravens are 1-4 in playoff games.

— Cincinnati won its last nine games (12-3 ATS last 15).
— Bengals converted 7-13 on third down, Ravens 3-11.
— Bengals’ first two drives: 24 plays, 114 yards, 9 points.
— Bengals’ last five drives: 30 plays, 117 yards, 7 points.
— Bengals are 12-0 this season if they score 21+ points.

— Next weekend’s playoff schedule:
Saturday:
Jaguars @ Chiefs (-8.5)
Giants @ Eagles (-7)

Sunday:
Bengals @ Bills (-4.5)
Cowboys/Bucs winner @ 49ers

— Former Cardinals’ coach Kliff Kingsbury is going to be paid $5.5M a year every year thru 2027 by Arizona; will be interesting to see if/when he gets back into coaching.




NFL
Weather Report

Wild Card Round


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MONDAY, JANUARY 16

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
DAL at TB08:15 PMTB +2.5
U 45.5
+500 +500
 

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Armadillo Sports

Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 14
First time in 30 years Dallas won a road playoff game.
Cowboys’ first two drives: 6 plays, minus-5 yards, no first downs
Cowboys’ next six drives: 58 plays, 404 yards, five TD’s
Dallas K Maher missed four of five PAT’s
Cowboys play the 49ers in Santa Clara Sunday night.
 

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JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in the last 3 seasons.

NY GIANTS are 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) as a dog in the current season.

BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after a win by 3 or less points in the last 3 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games against conference opponents in the current season.




NFL
Dunkel

Divisional Round


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NFL
Long Sheet

Divisional Round


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JACKSONVILLE (10 - 8) at KANSAS CITY (14 - 3) - 1/21/2023, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (10 - 7 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (14 - 3) - 1/21/2023, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games this season.
NY GIANTS are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
NY GIANTS are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
NY GIANTS are 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
NY GIANTS are 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
NY GIANTS are 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NY GIANTS are 90-65 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (13 - 4) at BUFFALO (14 - 3) - 1/22/2023, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (13 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 4) - 1/22/2023, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in home games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in January games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Divisional Round


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jacksonville @ Kansas City
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville

NY Giants @ Philadelphia
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing NY Giants

Cincinnati @ Buffalo
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Dallas @ San Francisco
Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Divisional Round

Saturday’s games
Jaguars (10-8) @ Chiefs (14-3)

— Jaguars are in playoffs for 1st time since 2017, 2nd time since ’07.
— Jacksonville won its last six games (5-1 ATS).
— Jacksonville was down 27-0 last week, rallied for 31-30 win.
— First time EVER a team won playoff game with a minus-5 TO ratio.
— Jaguars won last three road games, scoring 36-19-31 points. .
— Jaguars are 3-5 ATS this season as a road underdog.
— Last six games, Jaguars scored 29.5 ppg (18 TD’s/63 drives)
— Last six games, Jaguars outscored foes 103-30 in second half.
— Jaguars covered four of last six games overall.
— Last five games, Jaguars converted 32-74 (43.2%) on third down.
— As a head coach, Pederson is 6-0 ATS as an underdog in playoff games.

— Chiefs won 12 of last 14 games (6-8 ATS).
— KC has now been favored in its last 14 playoff games.
— Chiefs were held under their team total in seven of last ten games.
— Chiefs are 10-13-1 ATS last 24 games as home favorite (4-3 TY).
— Last two games, Chiefs converted 10-29 third down plays.
— Last four games, opponents converted 17-52 third down plays.
— Last ten games, Chiefs are minus-3 in turnovers (10-13)
— Chiefs have 87 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 54.
— Chiefs lost field position battle in eight of last 12 games.
— Mahomes is 8-3 in playoff games.
— Last four years, KC won its first playoff game, by 18-20-5-21 points.
— Last three years, Chiefs are 7-2 in playoff games.
— Reid is 19-16 in playoff games, 9-7 with the Chiefs.

— Chiefs (-9) beat Jaguars 27-17 here in Week 10; they were -3 in turnovers.
— Chiefs outgained Jacksonville 486-315, led 20-7 at halftime.
— Kansas City won last six series games (4-2 ATS)
— Jaguars are 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to Arrowhead.
— Last four years, #1-seeds are 3-5 ATS in this round.

Giants (10-7-1) @ Eagles (14-3)
— Giants are in playoffs for first time since 2016, 2nd time since ’11.
— Giants haven’t won consecutive games since Weeks 6-7.
— Giants are 4-6-1 SU in last 11 games, after a 6-1 start.
— Giants are 14-4 ATS this season, 6-2 as a road underdog.
— Giants are 8-0-1 allowing 20 or less points, 2-7 allowing 21+ points.
— Over is 6-3 in their last nine games.
— Giants are 5-1-1 TY in games decided by 6 or less points.
— Daniel Jones is 22-31-1 as an NFL starter, 1-0 in playoff games.
— Jones threw for 301 yards, ran for 78 more LW in Minnesota.
— Giants outgained Vikings 431-332, were 7-13 on third down LW.
— Giants are 9-2 in last 11 playoff games, winning Super Bowl in ’07/’11.

— Eagles are in playoffs for 5th time in six years.
— Eagles are 1-3 in playoffs since winning Super Bowl five years ago.
— Since 2010, Eagles are 2-3 SU in home playoff games.
— Philly is 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS at home this season.
— Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Eagle games.
— Last ten games, Philly converted 57-124 3rd down plays (46%).
— Last seven games, Eagle opponents converted 35-107 (32.7%) on 3rd down.
— Philly gave up 32-40-20 points in its losses this season.
— Siranni is 23-12 as a head coach, 0-1 in playoff games.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 9-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Hurts is 23-11 as NFL starter; he lost 31-15 at Tampa in his one playoff game.

— Since 2007, dogs are 4-2 ATS in this in round in divisional rematches.
— These teams are meeting for third time in seven weeks.
— Eagles (-7) won first meeting 48-22 in New Jersey, running for 253 yards.
— Second meeting was meaningless Week 18 game (22-16 Eagles)
— Giants are 5-1 ATS in last six visits to Philadelphia.
— Last four years, #1-seeds are 3-5 ATS in this round.

Sunday’s games
Bengals (13-4) @ Bills (14-3)

— Cincinnati won its last nine games (12-3 ATS last 15).
— Cincy is 4-1 SU/4-1 ATS in last five playoff games; before last year, they hadn’t won a playoff game since 1990.
— Cincinnati is 6-3 SU on road TY; they won last four road tilts.
— Bengals are 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Three of Bengals’ four losses are by 3-3-2 points, all on last-second FG’s.
— Bengals are 12-0 if they score 21+ points, 1-4 if they score 20 or less.
— Cincy converted 89 of last 184 (48.4%) third down plays.
— Bengals scored 37 TD’s on their last 109 drives.
— Last three games, Bengals were held to 53-73-55-51 rushing yards.
— Bengals scored 98 points on last 18 red zone drives.
— Last four games, Bengals are +5 in turnovers.
— QB Burrow is 4-1 in playoff games; he also won a national title at LSU.

— Bills won their last eight games, scoring 32-35-35-34 in last four.
— Buffalo is 3-7-1 ATS since their bye week.
— Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.
— Last three games, Buffalo converted 30-53 third down plays.
— Bills scored 28+ points in seven of last nine games.
— Bills scored 42 TD’s on their last 137 drives.
— Buffalo has 81 plays of 20+ yards (opponents 63)
— Last four Buffalo games went over the total.
— Buffalo has trailed twice at halftime TY (11-2-4 in first half)
— Josh Allen is 4-3 in playoff games (4-0 home/0-3 road)
— Last two years, Buffalo is 4-2 in playoff games, winning by 3-14-30-3 points.
— Before that, their last playoff win was in 1995.

— Bengals led 7-3 in Week 17 meeting in Cincinnati; game was cancelled after player on Buffalo had a cardiac issue on the field.
— Cincinnati won four of last six meetings; last one before Week 17 was in 2019.
— Bengals are 2-4 SU/2-4 ATS in last six visits to Buffalo.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.
— Since 2013, underdogs are 3-2 ATS in this round., when #’s 2-3 seeds meet.

Cowboys (13-5) @ 49ers (14-4)
— Since 1996, Dallas is 0-4 in its 2nd playoff game, losing by 9-31-5-8 points.
— Short week for Dallas after Monday night’s win in Tampa.
— Cowboys won 13 of their last 17 games (11-6 ATS).
— Before LW, Cowboys’ last road playoff win was in 1992 (1-8 since)
— Last seven games, Dallas converted 70-131 on third down.
— Last nine games, Cowboys outscored foes 147-99 in 2nd half.
— Cowboys are 2-1 ATS as a road underdog TY.
— Dallas is +14 in turnovers in its wins, minus-3 in losses.
— Dallas K Maher missed 4-5 PAT’s in last week’s 31-14 win.
— McCarthy is 11-9 in playoff games; he won Super Bowl in 2010.
— Cowboys lost four of six games on natural grass TY.
— QB Prescott is 63-39 as an NFL starter, 2-3 in playoff games.

— San Francisco won its last 11 games (9-2 ATS)
— Last four times 49ers were in playoffs, they went WWL
— 49ers outscored last ten opponents 182-60 in second half.
— 49ers are 11-0 when they score 24+ points, 3-4 when they don’t.
— Last four games, 49ers converted 71-143 (49.7%) on third down.
— In ten post-bye games, 49ers ran ball for 158.4 yards/game.
— 49ers are 9-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Over is 9-3 in their last 12 games.
— 49ers are +23 in turnovers in their wins, minus-8 in losses.
— Shanahan is 57-48 as an NFL coach, 5-2 in playoff games.
— Rookie QB Purdy is 6-0 as NFL starter; he was 18-30/332 in his first playoff game.

— Last four years, #2-seeds are 6-2 ATS in this round.
— Last year in playoffs, 49ers beat the Cowboys 23-17 in Dallas.
— Cowboys won six of last eight series games.
— Dallas won its last four visits here; their last loss here was in 1997.
 

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The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
The Jaguars are 6-0 SU in their last six games.
The Chiefs are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last five games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of Kansas City's last five games against Jacksonville.
The Chiefs are 15-2 SU in their last 17 home games.
The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Kansas City.
The Jaguars are 0-6 SU in their last six games against Kansas City.
The Jaguars are 4-16 SU in their last 20 road games.


The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
The total has gone OVER in six of the Giants' last nine games.
The Giants are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games against Philadelphia.
The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
The total has gone OVER in eight of Philadelphia's last 12 games.
The Eagles are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in six of Philadelphia's last nine games against the Giants.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 14 home games.
The Giants are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games against Philadelphia.
The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
 

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The Bengals are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games.
The Bengals are 9-0 SU in their last nine games.
The total has gone OVER in four of Buffalo's last five games.
The Bills are 8-0 SU in their last eight games.
The total has gone OVER in seven of Buffalo's last ten games against Cincinnati.
The Bills are 5-0 SU in their last five home games.
The Bengals are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against Buffalo.
The Bengals are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games against Buffalo.
The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.



49ers are 5-1 to the Over in the last six games
49ers are 6-0 ATS in the last six games
Cowboys are 4-1 to the Under in their last five road games
Cowboys are 3-1 ATS in the last four games as an underdog
 

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SATURDAY, JANUARY 21​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
JAC at KC04:30 PMJAC +9.5
U 53.0
+500 +500
NYG at PHI08:15 PMNYG +8.0
O 48.0
+500 +500
 

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Armadillo Sports

Chiefs 27, Jaguars 20

— Mahomes sprained his ankle in 1st half; backup QB Henne led a TD drive. Mahomes played the second half.
— Jaguars turned ball over twice in fourth quarter.
— Jacksonville covered six of its last seven games.
— As a head coach, Pederson is 7-0 ATS as an underdog in playoff games.

— Chiefs’ first three drives: 35 plays, 224 yards, 17 points.
— Mahomes was 22-30/195 passing, with 2 TD passes
— Chiefs lost field position battle in nine of last 13 games.
— Chiefs are in the AFC Championship game for the fifth year in a row.

Eagles 38, Giants 7
— In three meetings TY, Eagles outscored Giants 61-7 in first half.
— Giants in first half: 19 plays, 64 yards, no points.
— Eagles in first half: 42 plays, 260 yards, 28 points.
— Total yardage for game: Eagles 416, Giants 227

— Philly is 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS at home this season.
— Eagles were 10-14 on third down, Giants 5-13.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 10-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Philadelphia will host the NFC Championship game next Sunday.
 

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