NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 10
Sunday’s games
Seahawks (6-3) vs Buccaneers (3-5) (@ Munich)
— Seahawks won/covered five of their last six games.
— Seattle is 5-0 when it allows less than 27 points.
— Seattle’s last four opponents stayed under their team total.
— Last four weeks, Seattle is 13-45 on 3rd down conversions.
— Seattle trailed at halftime once this year, in Week 2.
— Last three weeks, Seahawks converted 18-37 third down plays.
— Seahawks are 10-5 ATS last 15 games as an underdog.
— Seahawks are 8-13-1 ATS last 22 games coming off a win.
— Five of Seahawks’ last seven games went over the total.
— Geno Smith is 19-23 as an NFL starter.
— NFC West teams are 10-11-1 ATS outside the division.
— Tampa Bay lost five of its last seven games (0-6-1 ATS)
— Last three games, Bucs scored 4 TD’s on 42 drives.
— Last five weeks, Tampa was outscored 69-41 in second half.
— Last five weeks, Bucs ran ball 100 times for 285 yards (2.85/carry)
— With Brady, Tampa Bay is 4-3-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— With Brady, Tampa Bay is 11-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Tampa Bay is 0-4 this year when it gives up more than 15 points.
— Seven of nine Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
— Brady is 311-91 as a NFL starter, 33-15 in Tampa.
— NFC South teams are 8-15-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Buccaneers won four of last six meetings.
— Teams have not met since 2019.
— Three of last four meetings went over the total.
Jaguars (3-6) @ Chiefs (6-2)
— Jacksonville lost five its last six games (1-5 ATS)
— Jaguars are 1-6 in one-score games.
— Last five games, Jacksonville ran ball for 175.8 yards/game.
— Jaguars are 10-20-1 ATS last 31 games as a road underdog.
— In his career, Pederson is 10-16 ATS as a road underdog.
— Jaguars are 3-2 ATS last five games coming off a win.
— Over is 4-0 in Jacksonville’s true road games TY.
— Jaguars converted 24 of last 49 third down plays (49%)
— 2nd-year QB Lawrence is 6-20 as an NFL starter.
— AFC South teams are 9-10 ATS outside the division.
— Chiefs won four of their last five games.
— Chiefs were held to 17-20 points in their two losses.
— KC is 10-19-1 ATS last 30 games coming off a win.
— Last four weeks, Chiefs converted 37-58 (63.8) third down plays.
— Kansas City is 7-12 ATS last 19 games as a home favorite.
— Chiefs have 19 TD’s on their last 51 drives.
— Kansas City gave up 20+ points in seven of eight games.
— Chiefs have 44 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 31.
— Chiefs are 9-19-1 ATS last 29 games coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 65-17 as an NFL starter.
— Chiefs won last five series games (4-1 ATS)
— Jaguars are 2-3 ATS in last five trips to Kansas City.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Texans (1-6-1) @ Giants (6-2)
— Texans lost six of their last seven games SU (2-4 ATS last six).
— Texans have been outscored 97-63 in second half of games.
— Houston has allowed 180.4 rushing yards/game this season.
— Texans are 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— Texans are 10-17-1 ATS last 28 games coming off a loss.
— Houston is 32-103 (31.1%) on 3rd down this season.
— Texans averaged less than 6.0 yards/pass attempt in 6 of 8 games.
— Houston is 2-7-1 ATS last ten games vs NFC teams.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 3-15-1 as an NFL starter.
— AFC South teams are 9-10 ATS outside the division.
— Giants won/covered six of first eight games.
— Giants are 3-5 ATS in last eight post-bye games.
— They trailed by 10+ points in three of their six wins.
— Giants are 3-1 SU at home, winning by 3-8-4 points.
— Giants are 4-7-1 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite (2-1 TY)
— Giants are 6-0 if they score more than 16 points.
— Last three games, Big Blue converted 31-67 (46.3%) on third down.
— Giants opponents stayed under team total in six of eight games.
— Giants are 33-28-1 ATS in last 62 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 6-1-1 in Giant games this season.
— Daniel Jones is 18-27 as an NFL starter, 6-2 TY.
— Giants won last four meetings, covered last three.
— Texans lost 30-17/14-10 (1-1 ATS) in last two visits here.
— Under is 3-2 in last five series games.
Saints (3-6) @ Steelers (2-6)
— Short week for Saints after Monday’s home loss to Baltimore.
— Saints lost 6 of last 8 games; their turnover ratio is minus-11.
— New Orleans scored 25+ points in five of their last six games.
— Saints are 1-5 when they score less than 27 points.
— New Orleans is 9-4 ATS last 13 games as a road dog (0-2 TY).
— Last five games, Saints have only two takeaways (minus-4).
— New Orleans is 12-7-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a loss.
— Saints have been outscored 53-18 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Four of last six New Orleans games went over the total.
— Dalton is 79-77-2 SU as an NFL starter, 2-4 with the Saints.
— NFC South teams are 8-15-1 ATS outside the division.
— Steelers lost six of their last seven games.
— Steelers have no turnovers (+9) in their wins, 14 (-9) in losses.
— Pittsburgh has only 10 TD’s on 83 drives this season.
— Pittsburgh has been outscored 36-13 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Steelers are 7-1 ATS last eight games as a home underdog (1-1 TY).
— Steelers are 3-1 ATS in their last four post-bye games.
— Under is 6-2 in their games this season.
— Pittsburgh stayed under its team total four of last five games.
— Pittsburgh has been outscored 86-47 in second half of games.
— Pickett is 1-3 as a starter in his rookie season.
— Saints won four of last five series games.
— New Orleans split their last two visits to Pittsburgh.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Lions (2-6) @ Bears (3-6)
— Detroit lost five of its last six games (1-3-1 ATS last five)
— Lions are 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
— Last four games, Detroit was outscored 57-7 in second half.
— Lions have given up 24+ points in 7 of 8 games.
— Last two games, Detroit converted 10-20 third down plays.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 5-19-1 SU, 15-9-1 ATS.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 6-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Detroit is 0-3 SU on road TY, losing by 4-29-18 points.
— Over is 4-1 in Detroit’s home games; under 3-0 on road.
— Last two games, Detroit opponents converted 16-27 on 3rd down.
— Chicago lost five of its last six games.
— Last two games, Chicago gave up 49-35 points
— Opponents scored TD’s on 10 of last 17 drives.
— Bears scored 33-29-32 points in last three games (1-2 SU)
— Last four games, Bears ran ball for 238-243-240-252 yards.
— Chicago is 4-0 ATS in last four games as a home favorite.
— Bears trailed at halftime in eight of nine games.
— Last two games, Bears converted 27-49 third down plays.
— Chicago is 12-17-1 ATS last 30 games coming off a loss.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is 5-14 as an NFL starter.
— Bears won seven of last eight series games.
— Lions are 1-4-1 ATS in last six visits to Chicago.
— Under is 7-5 in last dozen meetings.
Browns (3-5) @ Dolphins (6-3)
— Cleveland lost four of last five games, bu tcovered 3 of last 4.
— Browns are 1-6 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Five of Browns’ first eight games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
— Browns scored 26-29-32 points in wins; they’re 0-3 scoring less than 26.
— Cleveland outgained seven of its eight opponents.
— Cleveland is 7-6 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog (2-0 TY).
— Browns ran ball for 217-171-172 yards in their wins.
— Five of their eight games went over the total.
— Brissett is 17-28 as an NFL starter.
— Browns turned ball over 11 times in last four games (minus-6)
— AFC North teams are 14-10 ATS outside the division.
— Dolphins won last three games, scoring 31-35 points last two weeks.
— Miami is 5-0 this season in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Dolphins are 5-0 if they score more than 17 points.
— Miami is 11-4-1 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite (2-1 TY).
— Dolphins converted 13 of last 22 third down plays.
— Miami is +4 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in losses.
— Last four games, Miami averaged 7.3/7.5/9.2/10.1 yards/pass attempt.
— Three of their four home games stayed under the total.
— Last 3+ years, Dolphins are 17-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Tagovailoa is 19-9 as an NFL starter.
— AFC East non-divisional favorites are 8-5 ATS TY.
— Cleveland won five of last seven series games.
— Browns covered their last three visits to Miami.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Vikings (7-1) @ Bills (6-2)
— Vikings won last six games (4-1-1 ATS).
— Last six games, Vikings scored 27.2 ppg.
— Vikings are 9-12 ATS last 21 games as road underdogs (0-1 TY)
— Minnesota is 11-8-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a win.
— Last seven games, Minnesota has 15 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 26.
— Last five games, Jefferson caught 41 passes for 621 yards.
— Under is 5-3 in their games this season.
— Cousins is 67-62-2 as an NFL starter.
— Vikings have seven takeaways in last three games (+5)
— NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 5-6 ATS.
— Josh Allen tweaked his elbow last week (check status)
— Case Keenum (30-36 as NFL starter) is Buffalo’s backup QB
— Bills won four of their last four games, scoring 25.8 ppg.
— Buffalo is 3-0 at home, with wins by 34-35-10 points (2-1 ATS).
— Bills outscored their opponents 90-37 in second half.
— Last two games, Allen threw 4 INTs (minus-2 turnovers)
— Buffalo is 11-6 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite.
— Bills scored 13 TD’s on their last 38 drives.
— Buffalo has 41 plays of 20+ yards (opponents 27)
— All eight Buffalo games stayed under the total.
— Bills are 11-4 ATS in last 15 games vs NFC teams.
— Allen is 48-26 as an NFL starter.
— Bills won four of last five series games.
— Vikings lost 17-16/17-12 in last two visits to Buffalo.
— Three of last four meetings stayed under the total.
Broncos (3-5) @ Titans (5-3)
— Since 1991, Denver is 25-7 ATS in post-bye games.
— Broncos are 0-3 in true road games, losing by 1-9-3 points.
— Denver lost four of last five games, with losses by 9-3-3-7 points.
— Broncos scored 16 or fewer points in six of eight games.
— Broncos allowed 9-10-17 points in their three wins.
— Denver held all eight opponents under 6.0 yards/pass play.
— Last six games, Broncos are 25-98 (25.5%) on third down.
— Denver is 1-4-1 ATS last six games as a road underdog.
— Last five games, Broncos converted 16-67 third down plays.
— Seven of eight Denver games stayed under the total.
— AFC West teams are 7-13 ATS outside the division.
— Check to see whether Tannehill/Willis starts at QB.
— Tennessee won five of last six games (6-0 ATS), allowing 16 ppg.
— Titans ran ball for 314-172 yards in their last two games.
— Tennessee has outscored opponents 116-59 in first half.
— Titans have been outscored 99-33 in second half.
— Opponents have converted only 30-105 (28.6%) third down plays.
— Tennessee held last six opponents under their team total.
— Titans are 15-13-2 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite (1-1 TY).
— Last three games, Tennessee allowed only 4 TD’s on 34 drives.
— Seven of eight Titan games stayed under the total.
— Willis was 11-26/97 passing in his first two NFL starts.
— AFC South teams are 9-10 ATS outside the division.
— Teams split their six meetings.
— Broncos covered three of last for visits to Colonie.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Colts (3-5-1) @ Raiders (2-6)
— Colts fired their OC last week, their head coach Monday.
— Indy doesn’t have a coach who has called plays in an NFL game.
— Colts have trailed all nine games after the third quarter.
— Colts have been outscored 149-76 in quarters 1-3 this season.
— Underdogs covered six of their nine games.
— Colts went under their team total in eight of nine games TY.
— Last six games, Colts outscored opponents 73-50 in second half.
— Eight of their nine games stayed under the total.
— Colts are 6-3 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
— Indy is 10-5-1 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.
— Colts converted 0-14 third down plays LW.
— Indy scored one TD on 24 drives in Ehlinger’s first two NFL starts.
— AFC South teams are 9-10 ATS outside the division.
— Las Vegas lost last two games, outscored 24-0 in second half.
— Raiders are 2-1 SU at home; they led 20-0 at halftime of the loss.
— Raiders are 0-4 SU in games decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.
— Last seven games, Las Vegas’ opponent is 6-0-1 against its team total.
— Raiders are 5-7 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Las Vegas has won field position in only one game TY (Week 3)
— Las Vegas is 7-13 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
— Last four games, opponents converted 32-54 on third down.
— Five of last seven Raider games went over the total.
— Derek Carr is 59-77 as an NFL starter.
— AFC West teams are 7-13 ATS outside the division.
— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Colts are 3-2 ATS in last five road series games.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Cardinals (3-6) @ Rams (3-5)
— Cardinals lost four of their last five games.
— Last three games, Arizona gave up 20-20-21 2nd half points.
— Arizona is 1-6 when it scores less than 29 points.
— Cardinals trailed at halftime in eight of their nine games.
— Last four games, Arizona converted 17-51 third down plays.
— Arizona is 14-4-1 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog.
— Cardinals outscored opponents 42-15 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Last three Arizona games went over the total.
— Cardinals are 6-5 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
— Kyler Murray is 25-30-1 as an NFL starter.
— Rams lost four of their last five games.
— Rams were held to 10-9-10-14-13 points in their losses.
— In their losses, LA was outscored 68-9 in second half.
— Last five games, Rams ran ball for only 66 yards/game.
— Rams stayed under their team total the last six weeks.
— Under McVay, Rams are 17-19 ATS as a home favorite.
— Rams have one takeaway in their last six games (minus-5).
— Five of Rams’ last six games stayed under the total.
— Stafford is 19-10 as QB of the Rams.
— Under McVay, Rams are 8-8 ATS in NFC West home games.
— Rams (-3) won 20-12 at Arizona in Week 3.
— Rams won 12 of last 13 series games.
— Cardinals are 1-5 ATS last six visits to LA.
— Under is 7-4 in last 11 meetings.
Cowboys (6-2) @ Packers (3-5)
— Cowboys won/covered six of their last seven games.
— Last two games, Dallas scored nine TD’s on 19 drives.
— Last four games, Dallas ran ball for 163-134-139-200 yards.
— In their two losses, Cowboys lost field position by 12-17 yards.
— Dallas was 5-0 ATS as a road favorite last year.
— Cowboys are 2-1 SU on road, beating Giants/Rams.
— Last five games, Cowboys outscored foes 78-21 in 2nd half
— Dallas covered five of last six post-bye games.
— Under is 6-1-1 in their games this season.
— This is Cowboys’ first game on natural grass this year.
— NFC East teams are 17-7-2 ATS outside the division.
— Packers lost their last five games, scoring 15.8 ppg.
— Since 2018, Packers are 2-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— Green Bay went under its team total in seven of eight games.
— Last two weeks, Green Bay was outscored 32-8 in first half.
— Packers converted 14 of last 27 third down plays.
— Last six weeks, Green Bay gave up 152.2 rushing yards/game.
— Three of last four Packer games stayed under the total.
— This is Green Bay’s first 5-game losing streak since 2008.
— Rodgers is 153-82-1 as an NFL starter.
— NFC North teams are 10-11-1 ATS outside the division.
— McCarthy coached the Packers from 2006-18, going 135-85-2
— Green Bay won six of last seven series games.
— Cowboys are 2-4 ATS last six visits to Lambeau.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Chargers (5-3) @ 49ers (4-4)
— Chargers won four of their last five games.
— Bolts covered four of last five games as a road underdog.
— Chargers gave up 37-38-37 points in their three losses.
— Chargers have been outscored 105-68 in second half.
— Bolts ran ball for 91 or fewer yards in seven of eight games.
— Last two games, Chargers allowed 214-201 rushing yards
— Chargers are +5 in turnovers in their wins, minus-3 in losses.
— Chargers are 6-3-2 ATS last 11 games vs NFC teams.
— Four of Bolts’ last six games went over the total.
— Herbert is 20-20 as an NFL starter.
— AFC West teams are 7-13 ATS outside the division.
— 49ers are 4-0 when they score 24+ points, 0-4 when they don’t.
— Last three games, 49er opponents were 23-36 on third down.
— Last two games, 49ers converted 13-23 on third down.
— 49ers are 3-0 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— 49ers trailed their last three games at halftime.
— SF is 14-9 ATS in last 23 games vs AFC teams (0-2 TY)
— Three of last four 49er games went over the total.
— 49ers are +5 in turnovers in their wins, minus-8 in losses.
— 49ers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine post-bye games.
— QB Garoppolo is 40-19 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers won last five series games (4-1 ATS)
— Bolts won 38-35/48-19 in last two visits to Santa Clara.
— Over is 4-1-1 in last six meetings.
Monday’s game
Commanders (4-5) @ Eagles (8-0)
— Washington won three of last four games, all decided by 5 or less points.
— Six of their last seven games stayed under the total.
— Washington converted only 15 of last 60 third down plays.
— Last four games, Washington is +3 in turnovers (minus-7 in first five).
— Commanders are 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a road dog (1-2 TY).
— Commanders are 5-9 ATS last 14 games coming off a loss.
— Last eight games, Commanders have been outscored 110-40 in first half.
— Washington is 6-10 ATS in last 16 NFC North road games.
— Opponents stayed under their team total six of last seven games.
— QB Heinicke is 9-11 as an NFL starter.
— Philly won its first seven games (5-3 ATS), scoring 28.1 ppg.
— Philly won/covered all four home games TY.
— Eagles covered their last eight games as a home favorite.
— Eagles have 28 touchdowns on 77 drives this season.
— Philly has converted 50-99 3rd down plays.
— Eagles outscored first seven foes 161-72 in first half.
— Philly is 3-7 ATS last ten games as a road favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Philly is 15-13 ATS coming off a win.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— 3rd-year QB Hurts is 17-11 as an NFL starter.
— Eagles (-6) won 24-8 at Washington in Week 3.
— Philadelphia won nine of last ten series games.
— Commanders are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Philly.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
