NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 11
Thursday game
Titans (6-3) @ Packers (4-5)
— Tennessee won six of last seven games (7-0 ATS), allowing 15.1 ppg.
— Titans are 3-2 SU on road (4-1 ATS)
— Tennessee has outscored opponents 123-69 in first half.
— Titans have been outscored 99-43 in second half.
— Opponents have converted only 34-122 (27.9%) third down plays.
— Tennessee held last seven opponents under their team total.
— Titans are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog (3-1 TY).
— Last four games, Tennessee allowed only 5 TD’s on 46 drives.
— Eight of nine Titan games stayed under the total.
— AFC South road underdogs are 5-7 ATS outside the division.
— Packers lost five of their last six games SU.
— Packers are 17-9 ATS last 26 games as a home favorite.
— Green Bay went under its team total in seven of nine games.
— Last three weeks, Green Bay was outscored 46-22 in first half.
— Packers converted 20 of last 40 third down plays.
— Last six weeks, Green Bay gave up 153.1 rushing yards/game.
— Under is 6-4 in Packer games this season.
— Last three games, Green Bay ran ball for 173.7 yards/game.
— Packers are 1-3 ATS this year coming off a win.
— NFC North home favorites are 4-3 ATS outside the division.
— Tennessee won four of last six meetings.
— Titans lost 40-14/55-7 in last two visits to Lambeau.
— Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
— Home team won five of last six series games.
Sunday’s games
Rams (3-6) @ Saints (3-7)
— Rams lost five of their last six games.
— Rams are 3-0 scoring 20+ points, 0-6 when they score less.
— In their losses, LA was outscored 78-23 in second half.
— Last five games, Rams ran ball for only 69.3 yards/game.
— Rams stayed under their team total the last seven weeks.
— Under McVay, Rams are 7-4-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Rams have one takeaway in their last seven games (minus-7).
— Five of Rams’ last seven games stayed under the total.
— WR Cooper Kupp (ankle) is out for the next month.
— NFC West road underdogs are 4-2-1 ATS outside the division.
— Saints lost 7 of last 9 games; their turnover ratio is minus-13.
— Last five games, Saints have only two takeaways (minus-6).
— New Orleans scored two TD’s on their last 19 drives.
— Last two games, Saints have one play of 20+ yards.
— Saints are 1-6 when they score less than 27 points.
— New Orleans is 6-5 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
— New Orleans is 12-8-1 ATS last 21 games coming off a loss.
— Saints have been outscored 53-25 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Last three New Orleans games stayed under the total.
— Dalton is 79-78-2 SU as an NFL starter, 2-5 with the Saints.
— NFC South teams are 9-17-1 ATS outside the division.
— Rams won five of last seven series games.
— LA is 1-3 ATS in last four games in the Superdome.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
Browns (3-6) @ Bills (6-3)
— Cleveland lost five of last six games (3-2 ATS last five).
— Browns are 7-7 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog (2-1 TY).
— Browns lost field position by 10+ yards in three of last four games.
— Browns scored 26-29-32 points in wins; they’re 0-4 scoring less than 26.
— Cleveland outgained seven of its nine opponents.
— Over is 6-3 in their games this season.
— Browns ran ball for 217-171-172 yards in their wins.
— Five of their eight games went over the total.
— Brissett is 17-29 as an NFL starter.
— Browns turned ball over 12 times in last five games (minus-7)
— Bills lost their last two games, both by a FG.
— Buffalo is 3-1 at home, with wins by 34-35-10 points (2-2 ATS).
— Last three games, Bills were outscored 33-12 in second half.
— Last three games, Buffalo has no second half TD’s on 15 drives.
— Last two games, Allen threw 6 INTs (minus-4 turnovers)
— Buffalo is 11-7 ATS last 18 games as a home favorite.
— Bills scored 16 TD’s on their last 51 drives.
— Buffalo has 49 plays of 20+ yards (opponents 35)
— Eight of nine Buffalo games stayed under the total.
— Bills are 15-6 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss (0-2 TY).
— Allen is 48-27 as an NFL starter.
— Bills won four of last six series games.
— Browns lost last three trips to Buffalo by 20-16-7 points (0-3 ATS)
— Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Eagles (8-1) @ Colts (4-5-1)
— Short week for Eagles after their loss Monday night.
— Philly won all four road games TY, by 3-16-3-12 points (1-3 ATS).
— Eagles are 3-8 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Eagles have 31 touchdowns on 87 drives this season.
— Philly has converted 55-107 3rd down plays.
— Eagles outscored first seven foes 175-92 in first half.
— Philly is 12-19 ATS last 31 games coming off a loss.
— NFC East teams are 18-8-2 ATS outside division (1-4-2 as road favorites)
— Last three games, Eagles were outscored 26-0 in last 2:00 of each half.
— 3rd-year QB Hurts is 17-12 as an NFL starter.
— Colts won their first game under interim HC Saturday last week.
— Colts lost three of last four games SU.
— Colts have been outscored 163-95 in quarters 1-3 this season.
— Underdogs covered seven of their ten games.
— Colts went under their team total in eight of ten games TY.
— Last seven games, Colts outscored opponents 85-63 in second half.
— Eight of their ten games stayed under the total.
— Since 2018, Colts are 2-3 ATS as a home underdog (1-0 TY).
— Indy is 14-15 ATS last 29 games coming off a win.
— In Ryan’s last three starts, Colts converted 20-39 third down plays.
— Ryan is 128-111-1 as an NFL starter, 4-3-1 with the Colts
— Colts are 12-5-1 ATS last 18 games vs NFC teams.
— Eagles won last three meetings, by 4-3-2 points.
— Teams split last two series games played here (over 2-0)
— Four of last five series games went over the total.
Commanders (5-5) @ Texans (1-7-1)
— Washington won/covered four of last five games.
— Short week for Commanders after their win in Philly Monday.
— Washington converted 12-21 third down plays Monday.
— Previous five games, they were 15-60 on third down.
— Last five games, Washington is +5 in turnovers (minus-7 in first five).
— Since 2018, Commanders are 5-1 ATS as a road favorite (1-0 TY).
— Commanders are 12-6-1 ATS last 19 games coming off a win.
— Last nine games, Commanders have been outscored 124-60 in first half.
— Washington is 6-10 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC teams.
— Six of their last eight games stayed under the total.
— Opponents stayed under their team total seven of last eight games.
— Check on which QB starts; Wentz may return from IR.
— Texans lost seven of their last eight games SU (2-5 ATS last seven).
— Texans have been outscored 114-76 in second half of games.
— Houston has allowed 181.6 rushing yards/game this season.
— Texans are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
— Texans are 10-18-1 ATS last 29 games coming off a loss.
— Houston is 35-113 (31.0%) on 3rd down this season.
— Texans averaged less than 6.0 yards/pass attempt in 6 of 9 games.
— Houston is 2-8-1 ATS last eleven games vs NFC teams.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 3-16-1 as an NFL starter.
— AFC South teams are 11-13 ATS outside the division.
— Texans won last three series games, by 2-11-3 points.
— Teams split last two meetings played here.
— Three of last four meetings went over the total.
Jets (6-3) @ Patriots (5-4)
— Jets won/covered five of their last six games.
— Jets won/covered all four of their road games TY.
— Previous two years, Jets were 4-11 ATS as a road dog (3-0 TY)
— Jets are 4-9 ATS in last 13 post-bye games.
— Last five games, Jets outscored foes 68-29 in second half.
— Gang Green is 1-5 ATS in last six AFC East road games.
— Last four weeks, opponents converted 19-62 (30.6%) third down plays.
— Last four Jet games stayed under the total.
— Jets held five of last six opponents under their team total.
— 2nd-year QB Wilson is 9-11 as an NFL starter.
— New England won four of last five games (5-1 ATS last six).
— Patriots are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Patriots are 22-21 SU since Brady left; 12-9 ATS at home.
— New England gave up 20-37-27-33 points in losses; 14-0-15-17-3 in wins.
— NE is +7 in turnovers in its wins, minus-6 in losses.
— Last four games, Patriots outscored foes 70-32 in 2nd half.
— Mac Jones is 13-11 as an NFC starter.
— Four of their last six games went over the total.
— Last two years, Patriots lost their post-bye game, 18-12/27-17.
— This is Patriots’ 4th game in row vs rookie/2nd year QB.
— Patriots (-2.5) won 22-17 in Meadowlands three weeks ago.
— New England won last 14 meetings.
— Jets are 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Foxboro.
— Four of last five series games went over the total.
Lions (3-6) @ Giants (7-2)
— Detroit won last two games by total of seven points.
— Lions are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
— Last five games, Detroit was outscored 77-28 in second half.
— Lions have given up 24+ points in 8 of 9 games.
— Last three games, Detroit converted 15-31 third down plays.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 6-19-1 SU, 16-9-1 ATS.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 7-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Detroit is 1-3 SU on road TY, losing by 4-29-18 points.
— Over is 4-1 in Detroit’s home games; under 3-1 on road.
— Last two games, Detroit opponents converted 22-38 on 3rd down.
— Giants won/covered seven of first nine games.
— Giants were held to 16-13 points in their losses.
— Giants are 7-0 if they score more than 16 points.
— They trailed by 10+ points in three of their wins.
— Giants are 4-1 SU at home, winning by 3-8-4-8 points.
— Giants are 5-7-1 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite (3-1 TY)
— Last five games, Big Blue converted 32-67 (47.8%) on third down.
— Giants opponents stayed under team total in seven of nine games.
— Under is 7-1-1 in Giant games this season.
— Giants are 8-7 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
— NFC East home favorites are 9-0 ATS outside their division TY.
— Detroit won three of last four series games.
— Lions covered four of last five visits to the Meadowlands.
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Panthers (3-7) @ Ravens (6-3)
— Carolina is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS since firing their coach.
— Panthers have also fired four assistant coaches since then.
— Carolina is 3-7 ATS last 10 games as a road dog (1-3 TY).
— Panthers are 0-4 SU on road, losing by 3-14-3-21 points.
— QB Mayfield gets start; he is 31-35 as an NFL starter, 1-4 TY.
— Carolina has converted only 34-120 (28.3%) third down plays.
— Carolina is 9-8 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 18-41 SU.
— Six of last nine Panther games stayed under the total.
— Carolina is 2-5 ATS in last seven games vs AFC opponents.
— Baltimore won four of its last five games SU.
— Five of last six Raven games were all decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Ravens led 35-14/20-3/20-10 in their three losses TY.
— Ravens are 2-7 ATS last nine games as a home favorite.
— Last six games, Ravens have run ball for 181.4 yards/game.
— QB Jackson leads Ravens with 635 RY; next highest is Drake, with 344.
— Five of Ravens’ last six games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore is 12-18-2 last 32 games vs NFC opponents.
— Jackson is 44-18 as an NFL starter.
— Baltimore is 15-5 ATS in last 20 post-bye games (3-3 last six).
— Carolina won three of last five series games.
— Teams split last two meetings in Baltimore.
— Last four meetings went over the total.
Bears (3-7) @ Falcons (4-6)
— Chicago lost six of its last seven games SU (2-5 ATS).
— Last two games, Chicago gave up 49-35-31 points
— Opponents scored TD’s on 13 of last 25 drives.
— Bears scored 33-29-32-30 points in last three games (1-3 SU)
— Last four games, Bears ran ball for 238-243-240-252-258 yards.
— Chicago is 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog (1-4 TY).
— Bears led at halftime once this season (1-8-1).
— Last two games, Bears converted 33-60 third down plays.
— Chicago is 12-18-1 ATS last 31 games coming off a loss.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is 5-15 as an NFL starter.
— Falcons lost three of last four games SU.
— Four of their five home games were decided by 3 or less points.
— Underdogs covered eight of their first ten games.
— Last three games, Falcons converted 27-58 (46.6%) on third down.
— Last four opponents converted 58-120 (48.3%) third down plays.
— Falcons are 14-12 ATS last 26 games coming off a loss (3-2 TY).
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 1-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last eight games, Falcons ran ball for 164.9 yards/game.
— Mariota is 34-39 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Chicago won six of last nine series games.
— Bears are 4-2 SU/ATS in last six visits to Atlanta.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
Raiders (2-7) @ Broncos (3-6)
— Las Vegas lost last three games, outscored 36-13 in second half.
— Raiders are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS road this year.
— Raiders are 0-5 SU in games decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.
— Las Vegas led 17-0 in three of their seven losses.
— Last eight games, Las Vegas’ opponent is 7-0-1 against its team total.
— Raiders are 12-7 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog.
— Las Vegas has won field position in only two games TY.
— Las Vegas is 7-14 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
— Last five games, opponents converted 38-65 (58.5%) on 3rd down.
— Six of last eight Raider games went over the total.
— Derek Carr is 59-78 as an NFL starter.
— Raiders are 8-12 ATS in last 20 AFC West road games.
— Denver lost five of last six games, with losses by 9-3-3-7-7 points.
— Broncos scored 16 or fewer points in seven of nine games.
— Last five games, Denver was outscored 41-20 in second half.
— Last five games, Broncos have six TD’s on 60 drives.
— Broncos allowed 9-10-17 points in their three wins.
— Denver held 8 of 9 opponents under 6.0 yards/pass play.
— Last six games, Broncos are 29-115 (25.2%) on third down.
— Denver is 7-13-2 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Eight of nine Denver games stayed under the total.
— Last two years, Broncos were 4-2 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Raiders beat Denver 32-23 at home in Week 4.
— Las Vegas won last six meetings.
— Raiders are 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to Denver.
— Under is 8-3 in last eleven series games.
Cowboys (6-3) @ Vikings (8-1)
— Cowboys won/covered six of their last eight games.
— Last three games, Dallas scored 13 TD’s on 31 drives.
— Last four games, Dallas ran ball for 159 yards/game.
— Last two games, Cowboys gave up 240-207 rushing yards.
— Dallas is 5-1 ATS last six games as a road favorite.
— Cowboys are 2-2 SU on road, beating Giants/Rams.
— Last six games, Cowboys outscored foes 92-38 in 2nd half
— Dallas is +9 in turnovers in its wins, minus-3 in losses.
— Under is 6-2-1 in their games this season.
— NFC East teams are 18-8-2 ATS outside the division.
— Vikings won last seven games (5-1-1 ATS).
— Last seven games, Vikings scored 28 ppg.
— Vikings are 4-0 SU at home, scoring 28.8 ppg.
— Minnesota is 12-8-1 ATS last 21 games coming off a win.
— Last eight games, Minnesota has 23 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 34.
— Last five games, Jefferson caught 51 passes for 811 yards (162.2 ypg).
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Cousins is 68-62-2 as an NFL starter.
— Vikings have 11 takeaways in last four games (+7)
— Vikings had 8 plays of 20+ yards LW; four of them were on 3rd down.
— Dallas won four of last five meetings.
— Cowboys won last three visits to Minnesota, by 4-3-2 points.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Bengals (5-4) @ Steelers (3-6)
— Cincinnati won five of its last seven games (6-1 ATS).
— Three of Bengals’ four losses are by 3-3-2 points, all on last-second FG’s.
— Cincy converted 42 of last 80 (52.5%) third down plays.
— Bengals are 2-3 SU on road, winning at Jets (27-12), Saints (30-26).
— Under Taylor, Bengals are 4-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— Cincy scored 13 TD’s on their last 28 drives.
— Three of Bengals’ last four games went over the total.
— Cincy is 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 AFC North road games.
— 3rd-year QB Burrow is 20-18-1 as an NFL starter.
— Bengals are 1-5 ATS in last six post-bye games.
— Steelers lost six of their last eight games.
— Steelers have no turnovers (+11) in their wins, 14 (-9) in losses.
— Pittsburgh has only 12 TD’s on 92 drives this season.
— Pittsburgh has been outscored 43-13 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Steelers are 7-1 ATS last eight games as a home underdog (1-1 TY).
— Last two games, Steelers ran ball for 144/217 yards.
— Under is 7-2 in their games this season.
— Last seven games, under is 4-2-1 in Steelers’ team total.
— Pittsburgh has been outscored 86-57 in second half of games.
— Pickett is 2-3 as a starter in his rookie season.
— Steelers upset Bengals 23-20 in OT at Cincinnati in Week 1.
— Cincinnati won three of last five series games.
— Steelers are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Cincinnati.
— (Over is 3-1-1 in last five meetings).
Chiefs (7-2) @ Chargers (5-4)
— Chiefs won five of their last six games (4-2 ATS).
— Chiefs were held to 17-20 points in their two losses.
— KC is 11-19-1 ATS last 30 games coming off a win.
— Last five weeks, Chiefs converted 44-68 (64.7%) third down plays.
— Kansas City is 3-1 ATS as road favorite TY, winning by 23-10-21 points.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Last two games, Chiefs are minus-4 in turnovers (0-4)
— Chiefs have 50 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 34.
— Chiefs are 10-19-1 ATS last 30 games coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 66-17 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers lost two of their last three games.
— Bolts are 4-11-1 ATS last 16 games as a home underdog.
— Chargers are 4-1 giving up less than 27 points.
— Chargers have been outscored 117-68 in second half.
— Bolts ran ball for 91 or fewer yards in eight of nine games.
— Last three games, Chargers allowed 214-201-157 rushing yards
— Chargers are +5 in turnovers in their wins, minus-3 in losses.
— Chargers are 4-2-2 ATS last eight AFC West home games.
— Three of Bolts’ last four games stayed under the total.
— Herbert is 20-21 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers lost 27-24 at Arrowhead in Week 2.
— Chiefs won 13 of last 16 series games.
— Kansas City is 8-1 ATS in last nine road series games.
— (Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings)
Monday’s game
49ers (5-4) vs Cardinals (3-6) (@ Mexico City)
— 49ers are 4-0 when they score 24+ points, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Last three games, 49er opponents were 29-52 on third down.
— Last three games, 49ers converted 22-40 on third down.
— 49ers are 1-3 ATS in their last four games.
— 49ers trailed their last four games at halftime.
— They outscored last two opponents 33-0 in second half.
— Six of nine 49er games stayed under the total.
— 49ers are +5 in turnovers in their wins, minus-8 in losses.
— 49ers are 9-6 ATS in last fifteen NFC West games.
— QB Garoppolo is 41-19 as an NFL starter.
— Cardinals lost four of their last five games.
— Last three games, Arizona gave up 20-20-21 2nd half points.
— Arizona is 1-6 when it scores less than 29 points.
— Cardinals trailed at halftime in eight of their nine games.
— Last four games, Arizona converted 17-51 third down plays.
— Arizona is 14-4-1 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog.
— Cardinals outscored opponents 42-15 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Last three Arizona games went over the total.
— Cardinals are 6-5 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
— Kyler Murray is 25-30-1 as an NFL starter.
— 49ers won 12 of last 15 meetings.
— Underdogs are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
