Yesterday 2-0-1/YTD: 30-16, +34.3 units
August 22nd
Canucks to Win the Series (+255), 2 units- I think there is some real value here. The Canucks really impressed me in their win over St. Louis. They could have easily gotten worn down and felt the pressure when the series got tied up 2-2. Instead they came out and scored ten goals in the next two games and closed it out in six. I think they are going to cause problems for Vegas with their speed and the confidence that they are clearing playing with. Vegas is a good team and I certainly wouldn't be surprised if they won the series. But they had some shaky moments against Chicago and they should not be 3 to 1 favorites in this series. Give me the Canucks to pull the upset.
Islanders to Win the Series (+110), 2 units- I'm sticking with the Islanders in this matchup. They are really playing well and I think are the better team here. I respect Philly's toughness and I like Hart in net. But just like he had back to back shutouts in their last series, he also had two games where he gave up 5 goals to a Montreal team that isn't exactly rife with offensive talent. The Islanders will be a much bigger test for Hart and Varlamov has been very solid in net. He has a .934 save percentage with a 1.67 GAA. New York is playing with a ton of confidence and I think they are the better team in this series.
A couple quick thoughts on the other two series. Colorado is the better team and should advance, but I don't want to lay -250 to -270. I like Dallas as a sleeper team and may have been tempted to take a shot on them. But I didn't like their coach's comments after their series win against Calgary. He was talking about how teams are struggling in the bubble and how challenging it is. I think he was talking about his own team and didn't want to call them out. If Dallas is lacking the mental toughness heading into this series, they have no chance.
The Bruins/Lightning series is a toss up. I may have given the Bruins a slight edge with Rask, now I see a slight edge to Tampa without him. And the bookmakers agree as I see the Lightning are -120 in the series. I thought they would be in the -140 to -170 range and if they were, I probably would have taken Boston. But I would rather bet on individual games of the series versus the series as a whole. Both teams have a lot of skill on offense and strong defenseman. I would say Tampa is probably the more talented team, but they also have a propensity to come up short in the postseason. This should be a great series to watch and I am looking forward to it.
I may have a play on the Dallas/Colorado game later once I look into it a little deeper.