I believe you're right! TY ^^^^
Hopefully the forecast is wrong! 100% Friday/Saturday with 70% Saturday 5th! Looking forward to draw
:aktion033 Hello all.........................Just want to say to everyone who has made some very nice comments ......................" Thank You Very Much "......................
I appreciate all of your input , suggestions, comments, and of course selections as we get nearer to the day. It is truly appreciated. We do this together as one..............
OK, getting close.......I really think we are going to have a wonderful derby to wager on.....................should be some excellent opportunities for wagering in the exotics...............
Be well all.................
I appreciate all of your input , suggestions, comments, and of course selections as we get nearer to the day. It is truly appreciated. We do this together as one..............
OK, getting close.......I really think we are going to have a wonderful derby to wager on.....................should be some excellent opportunities for wagering in the exotics...............
Be well all.................
Loser!@#0 OK, here is another great angle I always like to look at.................... The Raise a Native line...................
The list of Kentucky Derby winners that traces back to Raise A Native influence is startling.
As of last year there have been 20 Kentucky Derby winners that link back to Raise A Native on the sire line. They are American Pharoah, Always Dreaming, I'll Have Another, Super Saver, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Real Quiet, Grindstone, Thunder Gulch, Strike the Gold, Unbridled, Alysheba, Genuine Risk, Affirmed, Street Sense, and Majestic Prince.
On the broodmare side of the equation there were Mine That Bird, Barbaro and Real Quiet.
Going back to 1980 and Genuine Risk that amounts to 21 winners in the last 38 editions of the Kentucky Derby.
That is quite a roster. And guess what, Raise A native has another roster in 2018.
Taking a random look for instance at “The Derby Dozen” an important weekly updated preview column from Steve Haskin we find the following.
Vino Rosso and Good Magic, each of whom are sired by Curlin, who traces back to Smart Strike, Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.
Magnum Moon, whose dam Macoumba traces back through her sire Malibu Moon to Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.
My Boy Jack, whose dam Gold N Shaft is a daughter of Mineshaft who himself goes back through Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.
Enticed, whose dam It’s Tricky is also a daughter of Mineshaft who himself goes back through Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.
Flameaway is another from the broodmare side. His dam Vulcan Rose was a daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus who had the same Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native connection.
As you read this you might be forgiven if you ask, why not just give credit to Mr. Prospector? Fair enough…but I will give credit where credit is due. And it was Raise A Native who begot Mr. Prospector.
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Thanks to the individual that posted this story online................
The list of Kentucky Derby winners that traces back to Raise A Native influence is startling.
As of last year there have been 20 Kentucky Derby winners that link back to Raise A Native on the sire line. They are American Pharoah, Always Dreaming, I'll Have Another, Super Saver, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Real Quiet, Grindstone, Thunder Gulch, Strike the Gold, Unbridled, Alysheba, Genuine Risk, Affirmed, Street Sense, and Majestic Prince.
On the broodmare side of the equation there were Mine That Bird, Barbaro and Real Quiet.
Going back to 1980 and Genuine Risk that amounts to 21 winners in the last 38 editions of the Kentucky Derby.
That is quite a roster. And guess what, Raise A native has another roster in 2018.
Taking a random look for instance at “The Derby Dozen” an important weekly updated preview column from Steve Haskin we find the following.
Vino Rosso and Good Magic, each of whom are sired by Curlin, who traces back to Smart Strike, Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.
Magnum Moon, whose dam Macoumba traces back through her sire Malibu Moon to Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.
My Boy Jack, whose dam Gold N Shaft is a daughter of Mineshaft who himself goes back through Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.
Enticed, whose dam It’s Tricky is also a daughter of Mineshaft who himself goes back through Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.
Flameaway is another from the broodmare side. His dam Vulcan Rose was a daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus who had the same Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native connection.
As you read this you might be forgiven if you ask, why not just give credit to Mr. Prospector? Fair enough…but I will give credit where credit is due. And it was Raise A Native who begot Mr. Prospector.
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Thanks to the individual that posted this story online................
hno: Here are some interesting facts about this year's derby.............1. The post-time favorite has won the race each of the last five years, a streak that hasn’t been matched since 1895. This year, expected favorite Justify will try to emulate Orb (2013), California Chrome (2014), American Pharoah (2015), Nyquist (2016), and Always Dreaming (2017).
2. The Kentucky Derby is one of the highest-attended sporting events in the world. Last year 158,070 horse racing fans packed the track, and the average over the last 10 years is 160,963.
3. Horses whose first initial is “A” have won the race 11 times from 96 tries, including Always Dreaming’s win last year. The 11.5 percent success rate is higher than any other initial, good news for fans of Audible.
4. No foreign-born horse has won the run for the roses since 1983, when Canadian-born Sunny’s Halo was victorious. Canadian-bred Flameaway will try this year.
5. The red rose has been the official flower of the race since 1904, and the winner’s garland features more than 400 of them.
6. Trainer Todd Pletcher has entered four or more horses in the Kentucky Derby on five occasions, more than any other trainer. This year he’s expected make that six occasions as he enters 20 percent of the field: Magnum Moon, Audible, Noble Indy, and Vino Rosso.
7. Triple Crown winner Secretariat still holds the speed record in the Derby, completing the 1 ¼ miles in 1:59.40 in 1973. Monarchos is the only other horse who’s cracked two minutes, winning the 2001 edition in 1:59.97.
8. The Florida Derby has produced three of the last five Kentucky Derby winners: Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming. Audible, Hofburg, and Promises Fulfilled are the three 2018 Florida Derby runners expected for this year’s Derby.
9. The Kentucky Derby is the oldest continuously run major sporting event in the country. It has been run every year since 1875, making this year the 144th edition.
10. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882. Eight have tried in the last 10 years including Battle of Midway (third) and Patch (14th) last year. Both Magnum Moon and Justify will try to beat the “curse” this year.
11. Though both are 3-year-olds, Kentucky Derby contender Mendelssohn is technically the uncle of fellow Kentucky Derby hopeful Audible. Mendelssohn’s dam (mother) is also the dam of Audible’s sire (father), Into Mischief.
12. Last year fans bet a whopping $209,179,920 on Kentucky Derby day races, a record. More than $139 million of it was bet on the Derby alone.
------ Hope Audible listens to his uncle next Saturday...............
Draw is next....... Usually Wednesday
Justify (2-1)
Magnum Moon (4-1)
Mendelssohn (9-2
Bolt d'Oro (5-1)
Good Magic (7-1)
Audible (10-1)
Vino Rosso (12-1)
Enticed (18-1)
My Boy Jack (20-1)
Solomini (20-1)
Instilled Regard (20-1)
Noble Indy (24-1)
Lone Sailor (40-1)
Flameaway (40-1
Combatant (40-1)
Promises Fulfilled (50-1)
Bravazo (50-1)
Free Drop Billy (50-1)
Strike Power (50-1)
Restoring Hope (50-1)
Firenze Fire (60-1)
Snapper Sinclair (75-1)
Dream Baby Dream (100-1)
Magnum Moon (4-1)
Mendelssohn (9-2
Bolt d'Oro (5-1)
Good Magic (7-1)
Audible (10-1)
Vino Rosso (12-1)
Enticed (18-1)
My Boy Jack (20-1)
Solomini (20-1)
Instilled Regard (20-1)
Noble Indy (24-1)
Hofburg (30-1)
Lone Sailor (40-1)
Flameaway (40-1
Combatant (40-1)
Promises Fulfilled (50-1)
Bravazo (50-1)
Free Drop Billy (50-1)
Strike Power (50-1)
Restoring Hope (50-1)
Firenze Fire (60-1)
Snapper Sinclair (75-1)
Dream Baby Dream (100-1)
Good work as usual eleven - Some more speed info .
[h=1]Who's fastest? Comparing Derby contenders' speed figures[/h]
Speed figures, of course, only show how fast horses have run — not how fast they could run. But Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures, along with Brisnet Speed Ratings, can give us an idea of who belongs near the top of your 2018 Kentucky Derby wagers.
For instance, Classic Empire and Always Dreaming sported some of the top figures heading into last year’s race at Churchill Downs. But Classic Empire posted his number as a juvenile. Always Dreaming peaked at the right time and won.
“I look at them,” said Mike Battaglia, who has set the Derby’s morning line more than 40 years, on figures. “I try to find a horse that has a little worse Beyer — that’s probably better than what the Beyer says.”
No matter how you use them, consider speed figures part of the equation. Here, we’ve listed the last three numbers from each source to help with your handicapping.
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire
Speed figures, of course, only show how fast horses have run — not how fast they could run. But Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures, along with Brisnet Speed Ratings, can give us an idea of who belongs near the top of your 2018 Kentucky Derby wagers.
For instance, Classic Empire and Always Dreaming sported some of the top figures heading into last year’s race at Churchill Downs. But Classic Empire posted his number as a juvenile. Always Dreaming peaked at the right time and won.
“I look at them,” said Mike Battaglia, who has set the Derby’s morning line more than 40 years, on figures. “I try to find a horse that has a little worse Beyer — that’s probably better than what the Beyer says.”
No matter how you use them, consider speed figures part of the equation. Here, we’ve listed the last three numbers from each source to help with your handicapping.
Beyer Speed Figures
Brisnet Speed Ratings
TimeformUS Speed Figures
[h=1]Who's fastest? Comparing Derby contenders' speed figures[/h]
Speed figures, of course, only show how fast horses have run — not how fast they could run. But Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures, along with Brisnet Speed Ratings, can give us an idea of who belongs near the top of your 2018 Kentucky Derby wagers.
For instance, Classic Empire and Always Dreaming sported some of the top figures heading into last year’s race at Churchill Downs. But Classic Empire posted his number as a juvenile. Always Dreaming peaked at the right time and won.
“I look at them,” said Mike Battaglia, who has set the Derby’s morning line more than 40 years, on figures. “I try to find a horse that has a little worse Beyer — that’s probably better than what the Beyer says.”
No matter how you use them, consider speed figures part of the equation. Here, we’ve listed the last three numbers from each source to help with your handicapping.
Speed figures, of course, only show how fast horses have run — not how fast they could run. But Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures, along with Brisnet Speed Ratings, can give us an idea of who belongs near the top of your 2018 Kentucky Derby wagers.
For instance, Classic Empire and Always Dreaming sported some of the top figures heading into last year’s race at Churchill Downs. But Classic Empire posted his number as a juvenile. Always Dreaming peaked at the right time and won.
“I look at them,” said Mike Battaglia, who has set the Derby’s morning line more than 40 years, on figures. “I try to find a horse that has a little worse Beyer — that’s probably better than what the Beyer says.”
No matter how you use them, consider speed figures part of the equation. Here, we’ve listed the last three numbers from each source to help with your handicapping.
Beyer Speed Figures
| Horse | Last Start | Two Back | Three Back |
| Magnum Moon | 98 | 97 | 88 |
| Good Magic | 95 | 89 | 100 |
| Audible | 99 | 99 | 84 |
| Noble Indy | 95 | 91 | 84 |
| Vino Rosso | 98 | 85 | 90 |
| Bolt d'Oro | 102 | 101 | 91 |
| Enticed | 93 | 95 | 76 |
| Mendelssohn | 106* | N/A | N/A |
| Justify | 107 | 101 | 104 |
| Flamaway | 92 | 94 | 68 |
| Solomini | 92 | 92 | 93 |
| Bravazo | 64 | 93 | 89 |
| My Boy Jack | 90 | 94 | 93 |
| Promises Fulfilled | 47 | 96 | 76 |
| Free Drop Billy | 89 | 83 | 90 |
| Lone Sailor | 95 | 78 | 72 |
| Hofburg | 94 | 83 | 60 |
| Firenze Fire | 81 | 79 | 83 |
| Combatant | 92 | 92 | 85 |
| Instilled Regard | 90 | 91 | 92 |
*Special figure assigned for UAE Derby
Brisnet Speed Ratings
| Horse | Last Start | Two Back | Three Back |
| Magnum Moon | 99 | 100 | 90 |
| Good Magic | 98 | 98 | 105 |
| Audible | 107 | 105 | 94 |
| Noble Indy | 100 | 96 | 95 |
| Vino Rosso | 102 | 91 | 100 |
| Bolt d'Oro | 110 | 98 | 99 |
| Enticed | 99 | 104 | 88 |
| Mendelssohn | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Justify | 114 | 104 | 100 |
| Flamaway | 97 | 97 | 101 |
| Solomini | 95 | 96 | 101 |
| Bravazo | 76 | 98 | 96 |
| My Boy Jack | 94 | 99 | 98 |
| Promises Fulfilled | 67 | 104 | 90 |
| Free Drop Billy | 67 | 104 | 90 |
| Lone Sailor | 100 | 83 | 81 |
| Hofburg | 104 | 96 | 79 |
| Firenze Fire | 90 | 93 | 92 |
| Combatant | 94 | 95 | 92 |
| Instilled Regard | 102 | 95 | 96 |
TimeformUS Speed Figures
| Horse | Last Start | Two Back | Three Back |
| Magnum Moon | 114 | 116 | 106 |
| Good Magic | 121 | 113 | 116 |
| Audible | 120 | 114 | 102 |
| Noble Indy | 116 | 106 | 103 |
| Vino Rosso | 120 | 104 | 112 |
| Bolt d'Oro | 128 | 122 | 110 |
| Enticed | 119 | 115 | 100 |
| Mendelssohn | 120 | 114 | 108 |
| Justify | 131 | 122 | 129 |
| Flamaway | 120 | 111 | 115 |
| Solomini | 108 | 113 | 118 |
| Bravazo | 94 | 110 | 104 |
| My Boy Jack | 114 | 112 | 114 |
| Promises Fulfilled | 91 | 116 | 103 |
| Free Drop Billy | 115 | 107 | 111 |
| Lone Sailor | 113 | 96 | 100 |
| Hofburg | 116 | 104 | 86 |
| Firenze Fire | 107 | 104 | 109 |
| Combatant | 108 | 111 | 107 |
| Instilled Regard | 119 | 109 | 113 |
Also for what it's worth 'stuff', looking at Lenbo's post of speed, there are 3 horse which have improved in each 'rating' from three back, to two back to the last race............
And they are,
- Audible
- Noble Indy
- Hofburg
Again, for whatever it's worth................just seems Hofburg keeps showing up.......
And they are,
- Audible
- Noble Indy
- Hofburg
Again, for whatever it's worth................just seems Hofburg keeps showing up.......
Adding my 10 cents idea, hoping my Math Table still works.....
[FONT="] [/FONT][FONT="]SPEED COVERSION GUIDE OF DERBY CONTENDERS [/FONT]
[FONT="] FINAL THREE-EIGHTS (3/8ths) of a mile Fractions for latest Contenders:[/FONT]
[FONT="] (FINAL TIME OF 1 1/8 DISTANCE CONVERTED TO TIME OF 1 ¼ DISTANCE)[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT][FONT="]SPEED COVERSION GUIDE OF DERBY CONTENDERS [/FONT]
[FONT="] FINAL THREE-EIGHTS (3/8ths) of a mile Fractions for latest Contenders:[/FONT]
[FONT="] (FINAL TIME OF 1 1/8 DISTANCE CONVERTED TO TIME OF 1 ¼ DISTANCE)[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT]
| [FONT="]Horse[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Race (Finish Position)[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Final Time 1 1/8[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Conversion to 1 ¼[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Combatant[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Arkansas Derby (4[SUP]th[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:50.59[/FONT] | [FONT="]:36.30 2:02.64[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Magnum Moon[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Arkansas Derby (1[SUP]st[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:49.86[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]:36.47[/FONT][FONT="] 2:01.80[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Solomini[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Arkansas Derby (3[SUP]rd[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:50.57[/FONT] | [FONT="]:36.80 2:02.64[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Justify[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Santa Anita Derby (1[SUP]st[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:49.72[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]:37.11[/FONT][FONT="] 2:01.40[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]My Boy Jack[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Louisiana Derby (3[SUP]rd[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:50.40[/FONT] | [FONT="]:37.14 2:02.60[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Quip[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Arkansas Derby (2[SUP]nd[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:50.53[/FONT] | [FONT="]:37.16 2:03.00[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Bolt d’Oro[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Santa Anita Derby (2[SUP]nd[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:50.23[/FONT] | [FONT="]:37.40 2:02.43[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Audible[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Florida Derby (1[SUP]st[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:49.48[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]:37.51 2:01.00[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Mendelssohn[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]UAE Derby (1[SUP]st[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:55.86[/FONT][FONT="] (1 3/16)[/FONT][FONT="] 1:46.42 (1 1/8m)[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]:37.59 [/FONT][FONT="]1:58.32[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Vino Rosso[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Wood Memorial (1[SUP]st[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:49.72[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]:37.66[/FONT][FONT="] 2:01.40[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Hofburg[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Florida Derby (2[SUP]nd[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:50.05 [/FONT] | [FONT="]:37.80 2:02.20[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Lone Sailor[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Louisiana Derby (2[SUP]nd[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:50.32[/FONT] | [FONT="]:38.19 2:02.30[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Good Magic[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Blue Grass Stakes (1[SUP]st[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:50.41[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]:38.27 2:02.34[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Enticed[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Wood Memorial (2[SUP]nd[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:50.21[/FONT] | [FONT="]:38.30 2:02.28[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Flameaway[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Blue Grass Stakes (2[SUP]nd[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:50.70[/FONT] | [FONT="]:38.62 2:02.92[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Free Drop Billy[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Blue Grass Stakes (3[SUP]rd[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:51.13[/FONT] | [FONT="]:38.67 2:03.32[/FONT] |
| [FONT="]Noble Indy[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]Louisiana Derby (1[SUP]st[/SUP])[/FONT] | [FONT="]1:50.28[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT] | [FONT="]:38.81 2:02.29[/FONT] |
