2018 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[elevenblack301]

:think2: So how many of these 'contenders' have been getting slightly better ( if you think Beyers, SPD, LP numbers ) for the past 3 races ?


Horse which have got better at Beyers ---- SPD ------ LP in the last few races.


- Audible-------------------------------Y-------------Y-----------N
- Noble Indy---------------------------Y-------------Y-----------N
- Bolt D’Oro---------------------------Y-------------N-----------N
- Justify-------------------------------N-------------Y-----------N
- Magnum Moon----------------------Y-------------N-----------N
- Lone Sailor--------------------------Y-------------Y-----------N
- Hofburg-----------------------------Y-------------Y------------Y
- Combatant--------------------------Y-------------N-----------Y

For whatever this all means............................2 weeks to the big dance..............

Be well all...........

 

[wabashwonders]

Something I read on DRF today that most probably figured but now is confirmed.

Dale Romans will instruct jockey Corey Lanerie to send Promises Fulfilled to the lead in the Derby. Romans was quoted saying “Let’s just say I wouldn’t want to be the horse in front of him trying to get ahead of him, at least if they are trying to win”

pace could be brutal.

 

[elevenblack301]

Something I read on DRF today that most probably figured but now is confirmed.

Dale Romans will instruct jockey Corey Lanerie to send Promises Fulfilled to the lead in the Derby. Romans was quoted saying “Let’s just say I wouldn’t want to be the horse in front of him trying to get ahead of him, at least if they are trying to win”

pace could be brutal.

And just who is going to be chasing that rabbit................going to be fun..........

 

[elevenblack301]

w-thumbs!^ I believe that this years winner will have to post a triple digit beyer...................probably all past winners have done this so no big revelation of course............

Which horses have already posted a triple digit .........

.............Horses Who Have Had Triple Digit Beyers


- Good Magic----------------------100
- Bolt D’Oro-----------------------103,101,102
- Justify---------------------------104,101,107

 

[elevenblack301]

hno: Some interesting stuff..........................

Recently I heard ( and read ) that since the prep races went to the 100 point system for certain prep races.............the eventual Kentucky Derby winner would have won one of these races previously. So let’s check these “Horses” which won the prep races worth 100 pts.........


- Noble Indy
- Mendelssohn
- Audible
- Good Magic
- Justify
- Vino Rosso
- Magnum Moon


So , to make it easier for us, according to this, this year’s winner will be one of these named.

Be well all............

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Now with less than 2 weeks to derby day.................my top 10.....................


1.) Mendelssohn -
2.) Audible -
3.) Vino Rosso
4.) Justify -
5.) Bolt D'Oro
6.) Magnum Moon
7.) My Boy Jack -
8.) Hofburg-
9.) Good Magic-
10.) Flameaway -

----- Be Well All....................

 

[wabashwonders]

:think2: Now with less than 2 weeks to derby day.................my top 10.....................


1.) Mendelssohn -
2.) Audible -
3.) Vino Rosso
4.) Justify -
5.) Bolt D'Oro
6.) Magnum Moon
7.) My Boy Jack -
8.) Hofburg-
9.) Good Magic-
10.) Flameaway -

----- Be Well All....................

I like your list. My Boy Jack is another longshot I really like also. This horse can run all day long and I think the race will set up nicely for him. Might not win but a definite use underneath.

 

[elevenblack301]

I like your list. My Boy Jack is another longshot I really like also. This horse can run all day long and I think the race will set up nicely for him. Might not win but a definite use underneath.

I am sure you have already, but watch his replays.......................he loves coming down the stretch................seems like he switches to another gear on the far turns always......

If he can be positioned well, and not completely back of the pack, look out..............he will be passing many horses in the end. Will definitely include him in my exotics...........

Actually thinking of a Mendlessohn, Vino, MBJack and Hofburg, and Audible box...........

 

[wabashwonders]

I am sure you have already, but watch his replays.......................he loves coming down the stretch................seems like he switches to another gear on the far turns always......

If he can be positioned well, and not completely back of the pack, look out..............he will be passing many horses in the end. Will definitely include him in my exotics...........

Actually thinking of a Mendlessohn, Vino, MBJack and Hofburg, and Audible box...........

I watched all 4 races last night and the thing that actually stood out was he ran 4 very good races on 4 different tracks. And his best race might have been in the Southwest on a muddy track, so he can handle an off track also if that happens. I’m a fan of the Desormeaux brothers too.

 

[wabashwonders]

Quip will not run in the Derby and will go to the Preakness. The rumor is Gronkowski may not run either. Combatant is now in and Instilled Regard next if Gronkowski doesn’t run.

 

[elevenblack301]

Quip will not run in the Derby and will go to the Preakness. The rumor is Gronkowski may not run either. Combatant is now in and Instilled Regard next if Gronkowski doesn’t run.

Much thanks for the update....................do not believe Gronkowski has a chance, but he would have taken a lot of money his way.................just because of his name and the casual bettor............Quip was one of my tosses...

 

[wabashwonders]

Much thanks for the update....................do not believe Gronkowski has a chance, but he would have taken a lot of money his way.................just because of his name and the casual bettor............Quip was one of my tosses...

I agree. I do like that Combatant got in because I have him in future pool 2 at 72-1.

 

[elevenblack301]

I agree. I do like that Combatant got in because I have him in future pool 2 at 72-1.

Nice................very nice.......will be rooting for you on that one

 

[wabashwonders]

Nice................very nice.......will be rooting for you on that one

I bet a few more than usual on future plays this year hopefully it will pay off. Also got Mendelssohn at 31-1 in pool 1, which I thought was a big gamble when I bet it but looks good now. Just wish I had made the same gambles in pools 2 and 3 when he was 44-1 and 28-1.

 

[elevenblack301]

w-thumbs!^ Which horses carry that ever so elusive X Factor gene................They are...................

Audible
Bolt D”Oro
Free Drop Billy
Good Magic
Hofburg
Justify
Lone Sailor
Mendelssohn
My Boy Jack
Promises Fulfilled
Solomini
Vino Rosso

Starting to get very interesting................

 

[elevenblack301]

About the X Factor gene..................since the early 70's ............37 winners likely carried this large heart gene, according to their pedigree charts and physical characteristics...........


1973-1975 - yes
1976 - no
1977-1981 - yes
1982-1983 - no
1984 - yes
1985-1986 - no
1987 - yes
1988-1989 - no
1990 - yes
1991-1992 - no
1993-2000 - yes
2001-2003 - no
2004 - yes
2005-2006 - no
2007-2008 - yes
2009 - no
2010 - yes
2011-2012 - no
2013-2017 - yes

 

[elevenblack301]

Shush()* Below are the final 3-furlong times in the last Derby prep race for the last six Kentucky Derby winners:

2017-Always Dreaming (36.56 in Florida Derby)
2016-Nyquist (37.64 in Florida Derby)
2015-American Pharoah (37.82 in Arkansas Derby)
2014-California Chrome (36.69 in Santa Anita Derby)
2013-Orb (37.74 in Florida Derby)
2012-I’ll Have Another (36.42 in Santa Anita Derby)




With the above being said here are the top ten estimated final 3 furlongs for this year’s contenders..........


- Magnum Moon .....................36.47
- Justify.................................36.87
- My Boy Jack.........................37.21
- Mendelssohn........................37.34
- Bolt D’Oro............................37.35
- Audible................................37.48
- Vino Rosso...........................37.63
- Hofburg...............................37.88
- Good Magic..........................38.21
- Lone Sailor...........................38.21




Some very good stuff here, I believe.............

Be well all....................

 

[Kaboom]

Outstanding work ...as always bro .... Thank u for sharing !!!

 

[Baldheadedprick]

your thread has been so informative- thanks

 

[wabashwonders]

11, Good to see some others showing appreciation for the work you do with this thread every year. Refreshing change from some of the actual pricks who have been negative towards it in years past. Great work!!