2018 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[wabashwonders]

:think2: OK, my final top ten.........................before my selections in a day or two................

1.) Mendelssohn -
2.) Vino Rosso -
3.) My Boy Jack -
4.) Bolt D" Oro
5.) Audible
6.) Hofburg-
7.) Justify-
8.) Free Drop Billy-
9.) Magnum Moon-
10.) Flameaway

----for some reason starting to think Free Drop Billy could also be making a big run in the end with My Boy Jack and Hofburg.............Have to see how Mendelssohn looks after his big travel...............had to land in Indy and then ride up to Louisville ( that would make me feel poorly )........if Justify or Moon can pull this off, then so be it...................they will be in a class by themselves................just think the large number of horses are going to bother them more than the others.................especially Justify, he has only run against I believe 6 others before.

....Be Well All..............

Good group. The only one I don’t like is Audible but I’m loving Mendelssohn, Hofburg and My Boy Jack.

 

[LENBO]

https://racingdudes.com/blinkers-off-297-3rd-annual-jon-white-interview/

Long podcast so I'll give Jon White's picks for those who won't have time to listen .

He's going against his system this year and picking...

Justify with 3 strikes / My Boy Jack 1 strike / Mendelssohn 0 strikes / Audible 1 strike .


There will be a final strikes sytem article coming Wednesday but here is the latest strikes system article a/o 4/19

https://www.xpressbet.com/component...9-kentucky-derby-field-takes-shape?Itemid=101

Final Jon White Strikes system article .


One change . He puts Bolt D'Oro fourth ahead of Audible .


https://www.xpressbet.com/component...-2018-kentucky-derby-picks-strikes?Itemid=101



1. Justify (3-1 morning line) (3 strikes)
2. My Boy Jack (30-1) (1 strike)
3. Mendelssohn (5-1) (0 strikes)
4. Bolt d’Oro (8-1). (1 strike )

 

[elevenblack301]

Lenbo,

Thanks for the update. Still having trouble digesting his pick of Justify, and going against his strikes philosophy. But who knows..................

 

[Kaboom]

I'm still leaning Justify , Magnum Moon ,Mendelssohn , Long shot Hofburg ... 2nd place same horses but using Good Magic ( he's out of Curlin ) which matches Exaggerator 's 2nd place finish a few years back ..and both horses have identical Dosage's of 3.40 and CD ( Center Distribution) 0.82

also ... in their Conduit Mare Profile

Exaggerator ....Conduit Mare Profile = 5-4-2-9-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.59 Triads = 11-15-19

Good Magic ........Conduit Mare Profile = 4-7-2-10-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-19-20

Very Similar ... I will be playing Good Magic to place for $20 , myself .... on top of a bunch of other gimmicks LOL !!!



Who you on ????

 

[Baldheadedprick]

elevenblack301 thanks for creating this thread lots of good info ~~ good luck with your bets

 

[elevenblack301]

:aktion033 Hello everyone....................feels like Christmas Eve all over again, with the Big Day coming tomorrow..............

First off, a Big Thanks to all of those who contributed to this thread, your comments, suggestions, insight and such and your selections are much appreciated.

Second , let's look at my final selections.................

Here are my top 7 horses now...........

- Mendelssohn..................................will he be able to break the dreaded Dubai curse.........he look swell, and curious to see how Rayaa does in the oaks today
- Vino Rosso.....................................think he will relish this distance as does Johnny V
- Bolt D' Oro....................................think he is sitting on a big effort......should turn the table on Justify here
- My Boy Jack...................................will be flying when turning for home
- Hofburg........................................another one who be coming like a freight train
- Audible..........................................the distance may bother him
- Justify...........................................will he be able to break the dreaded Apollo curse.........

Will be playing these seven in exotic boxes and keying them on top in some tri and super tickets...............

Be well all, and talk to you on the other side of the moon...........( hmmmm, Magnum Moon )

 

[Don'tCountOnIt]

11 black I like MBJ to hit the board however do you think his last work of 5f in 1:03 indicates he is tired. He has already run 2 races in 4 weeks. His other 5f works are 1:00 & 1:01....interesting.

 

[wabashwonders]

Live odds are showing My Boy Jack as 2nd choice(5-1) behind Justify and just ahead of Mendelssohn right now.

 

[skoda]

My $30 investment..... Tri-boxed

If the stars line-up. The 1st Saturday in May.... 5th in 2018 before and after draw I'll try

2-3-4-6-13​

for 50 cents. If

"Vino Rosso​

" # isn't included <<<< I'll do 6 TBX for $60 and if a grey is running I'll play $10 ATB on the Grey. Who the best on paper isn't always in the winners circle.

I gave up buying a program years ago. Unless you are putting 10,000 to win on the best you should play the rest and hope for the best to lose.....

All hail American Pharoah! The much-ballyhooed, hard-charging colt came away with a win in the 141st Kentucky Derby, narrowly beating out nearest runners-up Firing Line and Dortmund to claim a first-place finish. In other words, it happened the way the odds said it would: the favored American Pharoah made good on the confidence of all those folks who placed bets on him, in front of a record-high television audience. But that isn't as common as you might expect.

How often does the favorite win the Kentucky Derby, would you reckon?​

​

Obviously, for a race with as long a history as the Derby's (the first race was held back in 1875), you're dealing with a lot of numbers. But luckily, there are records on this: 49 out of the 141 Kentucky Derbys have been won by the favorite, just over one-third of the time.


Always a good read eleven 301
​

Good Luck with your plays.....

Throwing the inside numbers 234 and lucky 13

6-10-14-18

14/5-7-16-18

got 14 in double. Lets double up!

 

[Hamilbet]

Damn! just heard them say heaviest rain theyve had all day is now and a total of 3 in.

 

[Kaboom]

Where you at Eleven ... Miss all your info bro ??? Appreciate all u do !!!!