2018 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[elevenblack301]

And Hofburg has some stats which I absolutely love....................his Late Pace numbers ( 80,99,101 ) and his SPD numbers ( 79,96,104 ) have gotten better with each race..................more to come with all of those numbers later.

 

[elevenblack301]

OK, one week gone a 3 weeks to go to Derby Day.................Here is my new top 10...........

1.) Mendelssohn - can he break the Dubai Curse
2.) Audible - believe he has another big race on deck
3.) Magnum Moon - think he is the better of the 'did not race as a 2 yr olds '
4.) Justify - starting to think he will have a tougher time than expected
5.) Vino Rosso - interesting colt here and why did Johnny V decide this mount instead of his others
6.) Bolt D'Oro - just can not get a handle on him yet of how he will bounce back after 2 grueling west coast races
7.) Good Magic - wants to be there
8.) My Boy Jack - this horse reminds me of Charismatic, a big closer and we know what he did
9.) Hofburg - seems to be getting better every race
10.) Flameaway - just always seems to be in the running and in the money

----- Be Well All....................

 

[elevenblack301]

popcorn-eatinggif Here is a little info, for what it is worth................

Which prep tops the list with the most winners in recent history ?


It’s the Florida Derby with four. Right behind are the Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park with two. After that, the Blue Grass, Spiral and Sunland Derby, each have one.


As satisfying as it may be to cash a win bet on the Derby, it’s even more thrilling – and financially rewarding – to hit the exacta or trifecta on a race with a 20-horse field. To that end, the 33 top three finishers in the last 11 years can be a means to filling in some of the blanks.




The prep that leads the way with seven in-the-money finishers might be surprising. With two wins, three seconds and thirds, it is the Arkansas Derby.


The two stakes next are the Santa Anita Derby with six in the money finishers This one is quite logical, being the Santa Anita Derby with two wins, two seconds and two third.


And the other reflects the value of expecting the unexpected at the Derby. It’s the Louisiana Derby with no wins, but two seconds and three thirds – all of them coming in the last seven years. Beyond that, in the last five years at least one Louisiana Derby horse has figured in the trifecta in three of them. Considering that the odds of those five horses in the Derby were 37-1, 34-1, 10-1, 9-1 and 6-1, including a horse from Fair Grounds’ definitive prep in a boxed exacta or trifecta could be the key to unlocking a huge payoff.


After that comes the Florida Derby with the four wins but only one second which wold also give them five finishers in the money.


Next is the Blue Grass with a win and two thirds for three. The Sunland Derby and Spiral both have a win and a second.

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Here are the Prime Power Ratings as of today's date...........

152.6 Good Magic
152.1 Audible
151.8 Justify
149.2 Bolt d'Oro
149.0 Magnum Moon
147.3 Enticed
146.3 Solomini
145.5 Vino Rosso
144.7 Noble Indy
142.8 Free Drop Billy
142.7 My Boy Jack
142.6 Flameaway
141.8 Hofburg
141.2 Restoring Hope
140.8 Sporting Chance
140.6 Quip
140.0 Firenze Fire
138.7 Combatant
137.5 Snapper Sinclair
137.0 Lone Sailor
136.1 Greyvitos
136.1 Pony Up
135.1 Bravazo
135.0 Dream Baby Dream
134.7 Promises Fulfilled
134.6 Reride
133.8 Givemeaminit
129.1 Machismo
NA MendelssohnNA Gronkowski


---- very easy to wean some horses from the 'win % chance' from this list...............

 

[elevenblack301]

Fast Facts​

• The Kentucky Derby winner is the only horse that will grace the infield winner’s circle each year. All other race winners use the grandstand winner’s circle.
• Bay is the most popular coat color of Derby winners, with 52 since 1875. Chestnuts may have a better chance of winning, though, as they have won 33 percent of Derbies (46) but only represent about 26 percent of foals born according to Jockey Club registry data.
• The Kentucky state song, “My Old Kentucky Home,” has been performed at the race annually by the University of Louisville marching band since 1936.
• “S” is the most popular first initial among Derby winners with 19 all-time, most recently Super Saver in 2010.
• The Twin Spires have watched over Churchill Downs since 1895 and are one of the most recognizable structures in sports.

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Here are a few more 'stats' as one may say concerning this year's entries in the Derby.........



Number of Lifetime Graded Races and Number of 1 1/8 Races


------------------------------- # G-------------------# 1/8


- Good Magic-----------------4------------------------1
- Audible----------------------2------------------------1
- Noble Indy------------------2------------------------1
- Vino Rosso------------------3------------------------1
- Bolt D’Oro------------------6-------------------------1
- Enticed----------------------6------------------------1
- Justify-----------------------1------------------------1
- Flameaway------------------6------------------------1
- Brazazo----------------------4------------------------1
- Promises Fulfilled-----------2-------------------------1
- Runaway Ghost-------------2------------------------1
- Free Drop Billy--------------7------------------------1
- Lone Sailor------------------3------------------------1
- Hofburg---------------------1-------------------------1
- Firenze Fire-----------------7-------------------------2
- My Boy Jack-----------------4------------------------1
- Instilled Regard-------------4------------------------1
- Dream Baby Dream---------1------------------------1
- Restoring Hope--------------1------------------------1
- Old Time Revival------------1-------------------------1
- Magnum Moon...................2..............................1
- Quip.................................2..............................1
- Solomini............................5..............................1
- Combatant........................3...............................1

 

[elevenblack301]

:aktion033 And the SPD ratings for the boys................

My SPD Numbers Calculations..................Highest SPD #


- Justify-----------------------------106.0--------------114
- Bolt D’ Oro-----------------------102.3---------------110
- Audible---------------------------102.0---------------107
- Good Magic----------------------100.3---------------105
- Flameaway------------------------98.3----------------101
- Vino Rosso------------------------97.6---------------102
- Instilled Regard-------------------97.6---------------102
- Solomini---------------------------97.3----------------101
- My Boy Jack----------------------97.0-----------------99
- Noble Indy------------------------97.0----------------100
- Enticed----------------------------97.0----------------104
- Magnum Moon--------------------96.3----------------100
- Free Drop Billy-------------------96.3-----------------99
- Promises Fulfilled----------------95.3----------------104
- Combatant------------------------94.0---------------96
- Hofburg---------------------------93.0---------------104
- Quip-------------------------------92.3----------------98
- Firenze Fire-----------------------91.6----------------94
- Bravazo---------------------------91.0-----------------98
- Old Time Revival-----------------90.3----------------101
- Dream baby Dream--------------90.3-----------------92
- Restoring Hope-------------------88.6-----------------96
- Lone Sailor-----------------------88.0-----------------100



Be well all........................going to be post time before you know it..................

 

[Kaboom]

popcorn-eatinggif Here is a little info, for what it is worth................

Which prep tops the list with the most winners in recent history ?


It’s the Florida Derby with four. Right behind are the Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park with two. After that, the Blue Grass, Spiral and Sunland Derby, each have one.


As satisfying as it may be to cash a win bet on the Derby, it’s even more thrilling – and financially rewarding – to hit the exacta or trifecta on a race with a 20-horse field. To that end, the 33 top three finishers in the last 11 years can be a means to filling in some of the blanks.




The prep that leads the way with seven in-the-money finishers might be surprising. With two wins, three seconds and thirds, it is the Arkansas Derby.


The two stakes next are the Santa Anita Derby with six in the money finishers This one is quite logical, being the Santa Anita Derby with two wins, two seconds and two third.


And the other reflects the value of expecting the unexpected at the Derby. It’s the Louisiana Derby with no wins, but two seconds and three thirds – all of them coming in the last seven years. Beyond that, in the last five years at least one Louisiana Derby horse has figured in the trifecta in three of them. Considering that the odds of those five horses in the Derby were 37-1, 34-1, 10-1, 9-1 and 6-1, including a horse from Fair Grounds’ definitive prep in a boxed exacta or trifecta could be the key to unlocking a huge payoff.


After that comes the Florida Derby with the four wins but only one second which wold also give them five finishers in the money.


Next is the Blue Grass with a win and two thirds for three. The Sunland Derby and Spiral both have a win and a second.

Morning 11

Can u please share the 5 horses that finished ITM from GP ? Much appreciated !!!

 

[Kaboom]

OK, one week gone a 3 weeks to go to Derby Day.................Here is my new top 10...........

1.) Mendelssohn - can he break the Dubai Curse
2.) Audible - believe he has another big race on deck
3.) Magnum Moon - think he is the better of the 'did not race as a 2 yr olds '
4.) Justify - starting to think he will have a tougher time than expected
5.) Vino Rosso - interesting colt here and why did Johnny V decide this mount instead of his others
6.) Bolt D'Oro - just can not get a handle on him yet of how he will bounce back after 2 grueling west coast races
7.) Good Magic - wants to be there
8.) My Boy Jack - this horse reminds me of Charismatic, a big closer and we know what he did
9.) Hofburg - seems to be getting better every race
10.) Flameaway - just always seems to be in the running and in the money

----- Be Well All....................

Really like Audibles last race but a small concern of mine is ....

His stamina is at an 11 in the Conduit Mare Numbers . While that does not mean he can’t win, the last time a horse with that low a stamina number has won on the first Saturday was 1970.

Thoughts bro ? Appreciate the insight

 

[elevenblack301]

Morning 11

Can u please share the 5 horses that finished ITM from GP ? Much appreciated !!!

Hello Kaboom..........

Hmmmmm, going to have to check on that, just took this story as it was posted and the author did not list the names of the horses.

But will try to find something, thanks....

 

[elevenblack301]

Really like Audibles last race but a small concern of mine is ....

His stamina is at an 11 in the Conduit Mare Numbers . While that does not mean he can’t win, the last time a horse with that low a stamina number has won on the first Saturday was 1970.

Thoughts bro ? Appreciate the insight

I really like looking at , and digesting all of these trends...............as 'this has not happened since,.............no horse has done this with this high a number or low number against them .................and so on and so on.

And most of the time these 'trends' hold true...................but then there is always the outside chance that a horse can pull it off even with all of the trends against him. Audible looks good............always is properly positioned in the race and always shows up to play.............I do like him and he has to be considered a top play in my book.

Thanks and be well

 

[elevenblack301]

:aktion033 Here are the Late Pace numbers, which are very important in this type of race, I believe............

--------My Late Pace Numbers Calculations.............Highest LP #


- Bolt D’ Oro----------------------106.6----------------------114
- Audible--------------------------105.6----------------------118
- Magnum Moon------------------104.6----------------------115
- Vino Rosso----------------------102.6---------------------106
- My Boy Jack--------------------101.7----------------------106
- Combatant----------------------101.3---------------------116
- Flameaway---------------------100.0---------------------110
- Instilled Regard----------------100.0---------------------105
- Good Magic----------------------99.3---------------------109
- Solomini-------------------------99.0---------------------111
- Justify---------------------------98.6---------------------117
- Quip-----------------------------98.0---------------------109
- Dream baby Dream-------------96.6--------------------106
- Noble Indy-----------------------94.0--------------------103
- Hofburg--------------------------93.3--------------------101
- Free Drop Billy-------------------93.0-------------------102
- Promises Fulfilled----------------91.6-------------------102
- Lone Sailor-----------------------90.6-------------------103
- Enticed---------------------------90.0--------------------95
- Bravazo---------------------------88.3-------------------100
- Restoring Hope------------------83.0--------------------90
- Old Time Revival----------------80.3---------------------92
- Firenze Fire----------------------78.3--------------------104


- Be well all,

 

[Kaboom]

Hello Kaboom..........

Hmmmmm, going to have to check on that, just took this story as it was posted and the author did not list the names of the horses.

But will try to find something, thanks....

Awesome buddy ...only if possible ...no problem ...but thank you !

 

[Kaboom]

I really like looking at , and digesting all of these trends...............as 'this has not happened since,.............no horse has done this with this high a number or low number against them .................and so on and so on.

And most of the time these 'trends' hold true...................but then there is always the outside chance that a horse can pull it off even with all of the trends against him. Audible looks good............always is properly positioned in the race and always shows up to play.............I do like him and he has to be considered a top play in my book.

Thanks and be well

Most everybody will be on him , for sure , imo ....

I also don't like his high Index number of 1.32 in the Conduit Mare Profile ... Last 27 years no horse has an Index in the CMP of higher than 1.09 ( Charismatic 1999 ) ...

Just trying to poke holes in horses to give us all an edge bro ... He may still whip these guys , for sure .... just using my number breakdowns ....

 

[wabashwonders]

Morning 11

Can u please share the 5 horses that finished ITM from GP ? Much appreciated !!!

2016...Gun Runner won Louisiana Derby and ran 3rd in Kentucky Derby at 10-1

2014...Commanding Curve ran 3rd in Louisiana Derby and 2nd in Kentucky Derby at 37-1

2013...Revolutionary won Louisiana Derby and ran 3rd in Kentucky Derby at 6-1

2011...Nehro ran 2nd in Louisiana Derby and 2nd in Kentucky Derby at 9-1


cant find the 5th horse he is talking about. Only horse to finish in trifecta at those odds was Lookin at Lee(33-1) last year but he ran in Arkansas Derby

 

[elevenblack301]

:aktion033 Thanks to all of those who have posted comments so far........................Much Appreciated..............let's try and bring home a winner..............or better yet some exotic wagers


Now how about those Beyer Figures..................


-----My Beyer Numbers Calculations.........Highest Beyer #

- Justify----------------------104.0--------------------107
- Bolt D’Oro------------------98.0---------------------103
- Good Magic----------------94.6---------------------100
- Magnum Moon------------94.3----------------------98
- Audible--------------------94.0----------------------99
- Flameaway----------------92.6----------------------93
- My Boy Jack---------------92.3----------------------94
- Solomini-------------------92.3----------------------93
- Vino Rosso----------------91.0----------------------98
- Noble Indy----------------90.0----------------------95
- Combatant----------------89.6----------------------94
- Enticed--------------------88.0----------------------95
- Free Drop Billy------------87.3---------------------90
- Quip-----------------------84.6----------------------94
- Bravazo-------------------82.0----------------------93
- Lone Sailor---------------81.6----------------------95
- Firenze Fire---------------81.0----------------------90
- Hofburg-------------------79.0----------------------94
- Promises Fulfilled--------73.0----------------------96

 

[Kaboom]

2016...Gun Runner won Louisiana Derby and ran 3rd in Kentucky Derby at 10-1

2014...Commanding Curve ran 3rd in Louisiana Derby and 2nd in Kentucky Derby at 37-1

2013...Revolutionary won Louisiana Derby and ran 3rd in Kentucky Derby at 6-1

2011...Nehro ran 2nd in Louisiana Derby and 2nd in Kentucky Derby at 9-1


cant find the 5th horse he is talking about. Only horse to finish in trifecta at those odds was Lookin at Lee(33-1) last year but he ran in Arkansas Derby

Excellent work bro !!!

Thank u !!!

GL on the Derby !!!!

 

[wabashwonders]

popcorn-eatinggif Now the ever so " may mean something, or may mean absolutely nothing ' statistic...............


-----------------------Fastest Time for 1 1/8 Race


- Audible...................................1.49.2
- Vino Rosso..............................1.49.3
- Enticed...................................1.49.3
- Justify....................................1.49.3
- Magnum Moon........................1:49.4
- Dream Baby Dream.................1.49.4
- Hofburg..................................1.50.0
- Good Magic.............................1.50.0
- Quip......................................1:50.0
- Solomini.................................1:50.1
- Noble Indy..............................1.50.1
- Bolt D’ Oro.............................1.50.1
- Flameaway.............................1.50.1
- Lone Sailor..............................1.50.1
- My Boy Jack...........................1.50.2
- Combatant.............................1:50.2
- Restoring Hope.......................1.50.3
- Free Drop Billy.......................1.50.4
- Instilled Regard......................1.51.3
- Firenze Fire...........................1.51.4
- Bravazo.................................1.54.0
- Old Time Revival....................1.54.3
- Promises Fulfilled...................1.56.3


- Gronkowski..............................?
- Mendelssohn............................?




We all know that these times come from many different tangibles, such as different racetracks, different track surfaces, different weather conditions, different jockeys, who had what for breakfast that day.....and so on and so on etc..... But it is simply a number which I like to take a look at.............again, may mean absolutely nothing, but.......................

Be well all........................

I believe Enticed’s time should be 1:50.1 since he finished 3 lengths behind Vino Rosso in the Wood.

Do you happened to have the beyer figures for each horse for these times? I found a few but not all and it’s interesting to note Justify earned a 107 beyer, 8 points higher than the 99 Audible earned despite having a slower time. Not sure it means much but interesting if you look at beyer speed figures.

 

[Michelangelo]

Always enjoy this thread, 11 black. Thanks to you and those who contribute.

 

[elevenblack301]

I believe Enticed’s time should be 1:50.1 since he finished 3 lengths behind Vino Rosso in the Wood.

Do you happened to have the beyer figures for each horse for these times? I found a few but not all and it’s interesting to note Justify earned a 107 beyer, 8 points higher than the 99 Audible earned despite having a slower time. Not sure it means much but interesting if you look at beyer speed figures.

wabash...........

Yep you are correct...........Enticed should be 1.50.1

The Beyers that I have for each of these times are as follows.....

-----------------------Fastest Time for 1 1/8 Race.....Beyers for each of the 1/8 races with best times...........


- Audible...................................1.49.2...................................99
- Vino Rosso..............................1.49.3...................................98
- Justify....................................1.49.3....................................107
- Magnum Moon........................1:49.4.....................................98
- Dream Baby Dream.................1.49.4
- Hofburg..................................1.50.0...................................94
- Good Magic.............................1.50.0....................................95
- Quip......................................1:50.0......................................92
- Enticed...................................1:50.1.....................................93
- Solomini.................................1:50.1.....................................92
- Noble Indy..............................1.50.1....................................95
- Bolt D’ Oro.............................1.50.1.....................................102
- Flameaway.............................1.50.1.....................................93
- Lone Sailor..............................1.50.1....................................95
- My Boy Jack...........................1.50.2......................................94
- Combatant.............................1:50.2.....................................92
- Restoring Hope.......................1.50.3
- Free Drop Billy.......................1.50.4......................................89
- Instilled Regard......................1.51.3
- Firenze Fire...........................1.51.4......................................81
- Bravazo.................................1.54.0......................................64
- Old Time Revival....................1.54.3
- Promises Fulfilled...................1.56.3.....................................47

- Gronkowski..............................?
- Mendelssohn............................?


Thanks and have a great weekend, boys and girls.............