2014 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

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$2 exacta $38 19 with all. I like the rider, and it gives me chance to hit wth a long shot in the second.
 

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Just read in another forum that yesterday horses on lead or near lead were winning
 

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I watched all races. Untapable may have hit near a 110 beyer--if it stays the same today I think we'll see some fast times. After anguishing over how to play the big race, I've come to the conclusion that Tapiture is a highly overlooked horse and will include him in win and place. His rebel trip was absolutely unfair to him--the worst trouble any contender has faced...and he still ran well. I don't put much stock in the AK derby. Asmussen is getting shit on and after his win yesterday I feel the race gods are on his side. Tapiture has one of the top 3 pedigrees for this race...plus the buckpasser x gene. I may kick myself later, but I will play the bulk of my exotics with Tapiture and Chrome on top and bottom----intense holiday, ROC, MD, Candy Boy, Uncle Sigh and Danza underneath. All of those horses had great works (Chrome questionable with his works--he is definitely NOT Orb).
 
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Would like to add this info i saw posted in another forum..Using Brisnet historical PP's.. Over the last 14 derbies, 11 times the winner recorded at least a 101 LP figure in their prep (the other 3 were a 98, 96 and a 79 to the statistical anomaly that was Mine That Bird).

Looking to the Derby, triple digits are with Danza with a 106 LP last out, Dance with Fate 101 (poly) & Ride on Curlin 101.

Above 95 are C Chrome (97), General A Rod (97), Wildcat Red (99), Chitu (96)

Something to strongly consider...

Good stuff.............................will be adding Ride On Curlin to some of my exotics...............

Best to all...........................................time to bring this one home...............................
 

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My 140th Kentucky Derby Tier Selections:

Top Tier: (Those I think could win and will be using mostly in trifecta keys and boxes.)

#14 Medal Count
#5 California Chrome
#16 Intense Holiday
#13 Chitu

Second Tier Usage:
#4 Danza
#6 Samratt
#8 General A Rod
#10 Wildcat Red
#18 Candy Boy
#20 Wicked Strong

Special Long Shot for fun because I have $10 burning a hole in my pocket: #17 Commanding Curve to win.

Best! Enjoy your two minutes~!
 

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Mr. Po Thead derby $$$ 4 (Danza) with 20 (Wicked strong weed) 4/20 exacta. that is all.
 

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$1 triple with keying Chrome on top with several horses 2nd & 3rd

#5/#10/All ($17)

#5/All/#10 ($17)

#5/#1/All ($17)

#5/#14/All ($17)

#5/#15/All ($17)


#5 ($100 WP)
 

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TGC,

Good call sir.. Chrome was very impressive. I don't see how anyone can bet against this guy in the Preakness..
 

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This is a very good story for racing.very humble beginnings for all involved. Horse was geared down and cruised to victory just like his previous starts. Will be a heavy favorite at the preakness.

yesterdays outcome was logical featuring the first , second and third choice in the super and the bomb was just about a mirror image of last years golden soul bomb...i imagine lots of people had lucrative days yesterday. I cashed a large future wager from November and some small pick 3's.

NBC coverage has to go. Actual inrace is great but the Johnny weir fashion crap was seriously over the top.

anyone going to the preakness for the first time shoot me a pm and I can walk ya through the do's and don'ts of the preakness from a 10 year veteran.
 

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So I played the last race (maiden) after the Kentucky Oaks and bet a trifecta. I had figured out the race and had singled 11 over a few combinations. I liked the 8, 7 and 10 and thought I had the 7 in place and after the race was excited that I had the trifecta. Turns out I didn't actually have the 7, but was paid anyway as a consolation ($245). The pool was over $600,000.....which begs the question can one scoop a trifecta pool? I know you can scoop the superfecta but wasn't sure about the tri. If it is possible, then this by far is the worst blunder of my entire life. Someone please tell me its not possible to scoop a trifecta pool.
 

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Yes you can scoop a tri at small tracks with small pools...

you weren't paid a consolation and the tri was hit...without seeing your actual ticket I'm thinking you hit it for a buck being that the 2 $ tri paid just under 500 which makes sense with your 245 payout
 

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12th race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 02, 2014


Video Race Replay

Off at: 6:35 Race Type: Maiden Special Weight
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Sex Restriction: Fillies and Mares
Purse: $60,000
Distance: Six Furlongs On The Dirt
Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:10.41

Pgm

Horse

Jockey

Win

Place

Show

11 French Press Alan Garcia 19.40 8.40 5.60
8 Taketheodds Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. 4.00 2.80
7 Sugar Run Wild Stewart Elliott 4.00
Also ran: 9 - Impetuous Youth , 10 - Dream of Bertie , 6 - Mildred , 2 - Crack Your Whip , 4 - Katie O. , 3 - Toy Land , 12 - Secret Journey , 1 - Chief Dante
Scratched horses: Heavenly Princess (Trainer)

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff

$2 Pick 3 1-13-11 (3 correct) 446.80
$2 Exacta 11-8 66.20
$2 Consolation Pick 3 1-10-11 (3 correct) 168.60
$2 Superfecta 11-8-7-9 2,864.80
$2 Trifecta 11-8-7 491.20
Winning Breeder: JMJ Racing Stables, LLC
 
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SECOND YEAR IN A ROW , TRAINER DALLAS STEWART GETS HIS BOMB IN THE EXACTA GOLDEN SOUL 2013, COMMANDING CURVE 2014, SAME PREP RACES WTF, FOR ME SECOND YEAR IN A ROW I GOT 4 OUT OF 5 IN SUPER HIGH 5, 3-4 in SUPERFECTA MISSING HIS BOMBS, LESSON LEARNED......STILL A GREAT day and THREAD .......
 

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This is a very good story for racing.very humble beginnings for all involved. Horse was geared down and cruised to victory just like his previous starts. Will be a heavy favorite at the preakness.

yesterdays outcome was logical featuring the first , second and third choice in the super and the bomb was just about a mirror image of last years golden soul bomb...i imagine lots of people had lucrative days yesterday. I cashed a large future wager from November and some small pick 3's.

NBC coverage has to go. Actual inrace is great but the Johnny weir fashion crap was seriously over the top.

anyone going to the preakness for the first time shoot me a pm and I can walk ya through the do's and don'ts of the preakness from a 10 year veteran.


The derby has become so commercialized past couple years & its getting worse.

Men wearing woman's clothing & commentating on TV. I have no further comments.......

On to the Preakness
 

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