2014 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[elevenblack301]

Well it's that time of the year again, boys and girl, ladies and gentlemen, it's Triple Crown time.

We are less than 3 weeks away, so it is time to start talking and throwing our hat into the handicapper's ring.

..........First, I want to thank God for allowing my friends and I to once again experience this time , heaven for any horse 'fan.

............Second, I want to thank all of you who have contributed to this thread over the years in a positive way, you know who you are, and it is truly appreciated.

For That's what it's about, .............. all of us pitching in and trying to bring home some 'bacon' that 1st Saturday in May.


So, as always, will be putting a lot of numbers on here, to crunch and decipher in a few days, but to start here is an interesting article ( just read it myself ) about the prep races,

You can read it here..................

http://helloracefans.com/handicapping/patterns/the-major-prep-factor/


....................................Thanks again, and looking forward to a great Triple Crown season.

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Here is a list that I like to look at, and I will state the facts again, that this is not set in gold........................I, like all horse players and fans KNOW that these times are not a GREAT TOOL in selecting your plays...................as we all know that these times vary with the Track, the Track Condition, the Weather, the Jockey, and etc..........so just because one horse has a better time than the next one doesn't mean that he is better.................

But it is interesting to look at none the less , These are the 1 1/8 Times for each of the probable entries as we move forward toward Derby Day........


......................1 1/8 Times For The Possible Entries

California Chrome......................................1.47.2
Chitu.......................................................1.47.4
Midnight Hawk...........................................1.48.1
Hoppertunity............................................1.48.2
Wildcat Red..............................................1.49.0
Constitution.............................................1.49.0
Commissioner...........................................1.49.1
Candy Boy................................................1.49.1
Wicked Strong..........................................1.49.1
General A Rod...........................................1.49.1
Dublin Up..................................................1.49.2
Danza.......................................................1.49.3
Cairo Prince...............................................1.49.3
Saamrat....................................................1.49.4
Social Inclusion..........................................1.49.4
Dance With Fate........................................1.50.0
Schivarelli..................................................1.50.1
Medal Count..............................................1.50.2
Bayern......................................................1.50.3
Vicars In Trouble........................................1.50.3
Ride On Curlin............................................150.3
Uncle Sigh.................................................1.50.4
Tapiture....................................................1.51.0
Noble Moon...............................................1.50.4
Intense Holiday..........................................1.51.1
Commanding Curve....................................1.51.3
We Miss Artie.............................................1.52.1
Harrys Holiday............................................1.52.1
Ring Weekend............................................1.56.0

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: And here are the records for the entries which have raced at Churchill Downs.................Have they been successful at this track ?

.....................................# starts.......record

Tapiture..............................3.............1-0-2
General A Rod.....................1.............0-1-0
Harrys Holiday.....................2.............1-1-0
Commanding Curve..............3.............1-1-1
Social Inclusion....................3..............0-1-1
Coastline.............................2.............1-1-0
Noble Moon.........................1.............1-0-0
Dublin Up............................1.............0-0-0
Ride On Curlin......................3.............0-1-1
Ring Weekend.....................1..............0-0-1


Have a great day everyone..............Be Well...........

 

[elevenblack301]

And here are the 'running style' of the possible entries......................


Horse.....................Run Style.................PTS

California Chrome........+E/P.........................7
Vicars in Trouble.........+E/P.........................5
Wicked Strong...............P
Chitu.........................+E/P.........................8
Hoppertunity..............+E/P.........................4
Intense Holiday..............P...........................2
Midnight Hawk............+E/P.........................7
Samraat....................+E/P.........................6
Social Inclusion............+E...........................8
Commanding Curve.......P............................1
Constitution..............+E/P..........................6
Wildcat Red................+E............................8
Schvarelli..................+E/P..........................8
Candy Boy................+E/P..........................4
General A Rod...........+E/P..........................8
Dublin Up...................+E...........................7
Uncle Sigh..................+E...........................5
In Trouble................+E/P...........................8
Commissioner.............S.............................3
We Miss Artie..............P.............................3
Cairo Prince.................P.............................5
Harrys Holiday...........+E.............................8
Coastline.................+E/P...........................5
Noble Moon.............+E/P...........................4
Tapiture..................+E/P...........................6
Ride On Curlin..........+E/P..........................8
Bayern.....................+E............................6
Bobbys Kitten.........+E/P............................7

 

[Ketch]

Great thread! Thanks for doing this every year

 

[tanner12oz]

:think2: Here is a list that I like to look at, and I will state the facts again, that this is not set in gold........................I, like all horse players and fans KNOW that these times are not a GREAT TOOL in selecting your plays...................as we all know that these times vary with the Track, the Track Condition, the Weather, the Jockey, and etc..........so just because one horse has a better time than the next one doesn't mean that he is better.................

But it is interesting to look at none the less , These are the 1 1/8 Times for each of the probable entries as we move forward toward Derby Day........


......................1 1/8 Times For The Possible Entries

California Chrome......................................1.47.2
Chitu.......................................................1.47.4
Midnight Hawk...........................................1.48.1
Hoppertunity............................................1.48.2
Wildcat Red..............................................1.49.0
Constitution.............................................1.49.0
Commissioner...........................................1.49.1
Candy Boy................................................1.49.1
Wicked Strong..........................................1.49.1
General A Rod...........................................1.49.1
Dublin Up..................................................1.49.2
Danza.......................................................1.49.3
Cairo Prince...............................................1.49.3
Saamrat....................................................1.49.4
Social Inclusion..........................................1.49.4
Dance With Fate........................................1.50.0
Schivarelli..................................................1.50.1
Medal Count..............................................1.50.2
Bayern......................................................1.50.3
Vicars In Trouble........................................1.50.3
Ride On Curlin............................................150.3
Uncle Sigh.................................................1.50.4
Tapiture....................................................1.51.0
Noble Moon...............................................1.50.4
Intense Holiday..........................................1.51.1
Commanding Curve....................................1.51.3
We Miss Artie.............................................1.52.1
Harrys Holiday............................................1.52.1
Ring Weekend............................................1.56.0

raw times mean nothing and I truly mean nothing...these time are taken from different tracks, with different pace scenarios, different weather etc etc... As I've said the previous 3 years in this thread raw times not factoring in anything else means nothing...post stats on the jockeys underwear colors and it would be as useful

 

[tanner12oz]

I would like to add the disclaimer that elevenblack has lost something like 100k in his "shared with friends" monopoly money bets over the past handful of years. As I have stated and other horseplayers have stated the way this guy plays his alleged tickets is an automatic loser....just saying...check last years thread and the year before and the year before...its my favorite thread of the year...it is akin to someone making a speech on medicine because they played the game operation...some of us live this sport 24/7 365 and have the scars to prove it...we aren't 3 day a year horseplayers...tread lightly and I'll contribute like I do every year much to 11's dismay

 

[tanner12oz]

raw times mean nothing and I truly mean nothing...these time are taken from different tracks, with different pace scenarios, different weather etc etc... As I've said the previous 3 years in this thread raw times not factoring in anything else means nothing...post stats on the jockeys underwear colors and it would be as useful

the standard is 1 second is 5 lengths so using the 11black info Cali chrome would beat ring weekend by 50 lengths...do I need to explain how ridiculous raw times are...seriously?

 

[elevenblack301]

Great thread! Thanks for doing this every year

Ketch,

Thanks for the kudos............................love this stuff and always have..............thanks for all that you contribute too..............are you leaning toward anyone yet ?

 

[elevenblack301]

raw times mean nothing and I truly mean nothing...these time are taken from different tracks, with different pace scenarios, different weather etc etc... As I've said the previous 3 years in this thread raw times not factoring in anything else means nothing...post stats on the jockeys underwear colors and it would be as useful

Can you, or did read the beginning of this post where I explain exactly what you comment on....................it said something like this..............

Here is a list that I like to look at, and I will state the facts again, that this is not set in gold........................I, like all horse players and fans KNOW that these times are not a GREAT TOOL in selecting your plays...................as we all know that these times vary with the Track, the Track Condition, the Weather, the Jockey, and etc..........so just because one horse has a better time than the next one doesn't mean that he is better..............

Guess your reading skills are as good as your math skills , if I remember correctly from the previous years.............

 

[elevenblack301]

I would like to add the disclaimer that elevenblack has lost something like 100k in his "shared with friends" monopoly money bets over the past handful of years. As I have stated and other horseplayers have stated the way this guy plays his alleged tickets is an automatic loser....just saying...check last years thread and the year before and the year before...its my favorite thread of the year...it is akin to someone making a speech on medicine because they played the game operation...some of us live this sport 24/7 365 and have the scars to prove it...we aren't 3 day a year horseplayers...tread lightly and I'll contribute like I do every year much to 11's dismay

This will be the last time I reply to your nonsense........................ you are a total 'ja'.........and have always been .........................I do not remember a time ever, when you posted any of your plays, never...............and then you come forward afterwards with a 'picture' of someone's winning ticket and brag about what you did...................... grow some balls and grow up................ or better yet stick to your other 'horse threads ' that you and your real handicappers are a part of.............

This will be the MY LAST REPLY TO YOU.........................life is too short and you aren't worth the time...................but I will wish you well ......................

 

[tanner12oz]

So why post raw times if you yourself think they are useless?

lol yeah your right I posted someone else ticket that was from my local otb (pittsburgh-meadows) and it coincidentally managed to have my username posted in the same photo.....you have yet to even post a losing ticket that is yours and here I am posting winning 1800 tickets on 50 bets...you want me to post the w2g also? I'm bringing it with evidence to back it up and you are still posting 20,000 in plays without a lick of evidence and raw times that should be used for wallpaper...

like I said I love this thread and I hope by some miracle you ate actually dumping 20k into these pools cuz your simply fattening the pot for the real players

 

[tanner12oz]

Last years thread featuring my score and 11b's losses http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=952799&page=12

 

[IMISREMEMBER]

hey black and tanner 120z start your own thread, who the fuck cares what you think, i have been watching for last three years how you attack eleven black, who cares what you think, , he is posting information who the fuck cares why attack? you can go in every sport and see dip shits with there plays attack them, your a super dime playa admit it.

 

[tanner12oz]

I will never jump on anyone who posts a legit angle or legit info but again we have raw times here which are complete and utter nonsense...i know I get offtrack and attack 11b at times but its mainly the information and strategy he presents that I post about..we have alot of people who check out this thread to gain insight on a sport they don't follow the other 11 months out if the year..i simply want to provide an alternative to those people so they aren't left with a bitter taste in there mouth...

remember horseracing is different then other sports and we are betting into a par mutual pool which means me vs you...you vs me...

I'm not going to post page after page of useless stats but when I see something of interest or see a conversation I can add too I will make my presence felt. I want us all to get filthy fucking rich on this race because its one of two days in racing you can legit change your life...its a tough game though and people need to be armed with as much useful info they can to make an informed decision

 

[elevenblack301]

hno: Hope everyone is having a great Tuesday....the weather at home here reminds me of the Derby when Sunday Silence prevailed......................we were freezing watching that beautiful horse come down the stretch..................but it was a ball as always.

Here are the Prime Power numbers for the Derby contenders as of this date, April 15................


151.7 California Chrome
148.3 Social Inclusion
148.2 Samraat
147.8 Vicar's in Trouble
145.5 Cairo Prince
145.2 In Trouble
145.1 Intense Holiday
144.9 Chitu
144.6 General a Rod
144.6 Midnight Hawk
144.4 Tapiture
144.1 Uncle Sigh
143.5 Bayern
143.5 Hoppertunity
143.4 Wildcat Red
142.3 Candy Boy
142.2 Medal Count
142.0 Schivarelli
141.7 Dance With Fate
141.5 Noble Moon
141.5 We Miss Artie
141.1 Wicked Strong
141.1 Coastline
140.9 Ring Weekend
140.8 Constitution
140.2 Ride On Curlin
139.7 Danza
138.7 Commissioner
138.6 Harry's Holiday
138.1 Commanding Curve


These numbers are from Brisnet and here is a quick explanation of what they say ..............

So, just how good is Prime Power? Take a gander at these results: based on a lengthy study of tens of thousands of races, Prime Power hits 31% top winners! That's sounds great, but when the study is broken down further and we focus strictly on dirt races, the results get even more interesting:

Top Prime Power horses by three full points (3.0+) or better score 39% of the time!
Top Prime Power horses by six full points (6.0+) or better score 46% of the time!
Top Prime Power horses by ten full points (10.0+) or better score 55% of the time

If the results of this study don't get you excited, you may need a reality check. Nowhere else will find any rating that even comes close to this! Prime Power pinpoints key horses that win a high percentage of the time. We're talking big percentages here - much higher than the success rate of favorites.


Hope that some of you may use these numbers to your advantage in trying to 'cap' this monster of a race.................if they are garbage to others then so be it ( but we don't have to hear about it, do we ? )...............I will post what I like to look at, and what I have done for more than 40 years or so......................and hope that it may in someway or another help someone out there in the future when they are following this great sport.....

As always.....be well.............less than 3 weeks now.....

 

[wabashwonders]

I would like to add the disclaimer that elevenblack has lost something like 100k in his "shared with friends" monopoly money bets over the past handful of years. As I have stated and other horseplayers have stated the way this guy plays his alleged tickets is an automatic loser....just saying...check last years thread and the year before and the year before...its my favorite thread of the year...it is akin to someone making a speech on medicine because they played the game operation...some of us live this sport 24/7 365 and have the scars to prove it...we aren't 3 day a year horseplayers...tread lightly and I'll contribute like I do every year much to 11's dismay

Dude, why don't you take your negativity elsewhere. Whether you like it or not this thread can be very helpful to many on here and always gets plenty of info leading up to the derby. Every year you come in here and bash elevenblack and I for one(and I'm sure many agree with me) think you are a fucking asshole for doing it. If you don't have anything positive to contribute then just shut the fuck up.

 

[tanner12oz]

Midnight hawk heading to the Illinois derby

 

[tanner12oz]

In case anyone was wondering the "prime power" number is a formulated number based upon Speed, Class, Pace, form, weight, distance etc etc.

 

[elevenblack301]

Dude, why don't you take your negativity elsewhere. Whether you like it or not this thread can be very helpful to many on here and always gets plenty of info leading up to the derby. Every year you come in here and bash elevenblack and I for one(and I'm sure many agree with me) think you are a fucking asshole for doing it. If you don't have anything positive to contribute then just shut the fuck up.

Wabashwonders,

Could have not said it better myself.............................it's funny how some people continue to be an asshole......................I use to give this joker the benefit of the doubt...............have for years and he keeps doing the same shit, over and over, like I hate to say , the 'broken record' crap............................I guess when once an asshole, always an asshole...............he is, was and always will be , life is too short to put up with these type of individuals.............it just is...............................I will no longer reply to his shit..................

On a finer note................Always have enjoyed and appreciated your input in this thread and others....................looking forward to your continued input, suggestions and of course plays............... enjoy and be well......