Why the Cards will beat the Phillies

[Stewball]

It was a tough decision for LaRussa.

Do you pinch hit in a low scoring game, or do you leave in your starter who is pitching well with a low pitch count??

For those citing Garcia's difficulties after 6 inn, what were the pitch counts for those games?? He was sailing along, 1 bad pitch got belted. There isn't a magic inning that you just automatically yank him.

 

[BookDoctor]

thess12345.

Just stop it. You're making too much sense.

You will never convince people who love laying chalk that they are wrong, or made a poor wager.

Its much easier to just bet on the favorite. This site is a haven for chalk players, and that is all well and good. Just don't try to reason with them. Their reasoning is usually this;

I bet on the best team, I don't care what the odds are.

A poor wager is a wager that loses, if theres alot of chalk, and you win. Then you made a good play.

 

[thess12345]

I don't pinch hit for him ever. I'm not sure if I mentioned this in thread but I was at the game, and i honestly felt like Garcia was going to go 8 shutout the way he was throwing, and he very well may have if Molina blocks that ball (If, if, if).

And you also knew the Cards were going to get to the Phillies bullpen before they could just throw madson/lidge. The Cards bats battled the entire day and had extremely good at bat, or atleast most of them (thought Berkman looked like Sh^t tho). Really, really wish this was a 7 game set.

 

[thess12345]

A poor wager is a wager that loses, if theres alot of chalk, and you win. Then you made a good play.

lmao. No. Just no.

You've never played poker have you? If you have, it's the same thing here. shoving duece-7 for 20BBs when you're opponent has put in 16BBs is not a good idea. Neither is laying 270 for the Phillies in this series. It may pay off, but over the long run you're losing money.

 

[thess12345]

**Note, for all you nits, I'm not comparing betting the Phillies winning this series to shoving duece7, but rather the fact that the wrong play does win-but doesn't pay off in the long run. Maybe the better analogy was calling a flush draw on the flop getting only 2-1.

 

[Shub]

The Cards lost this game when the best hitter in baseball gets 4 hits (3 doubles) and you can't knock him in. Two players with 4 hits, 14 runners left on base. It's easy to question Larussa in hindsight but if Garcia gets that out different story. Lance berkman needs to step up tonight and I think he will take one out of his old buddy oswalt. The cards led the NL in runs 5.67 per game so I'm taking the over 7 1/2. The phils will put up some runs vs the righty Jackson. The game starts a hour later 6:07 the shadows will have less of an impact tonight. Also the cards miss holidays bat in the lineup. Might but something slight on the over grand salami. Would love to see cards win tonight and force a game 5 .

 

[CaptFlippy]

The Phillies more than likely will not lose a game in the postseason. THATS HOW GOOD THEY ARE. Sure biased but I'm a gambler and will be on them every single game. I'm very confident they will not lose.

You've got to be feeling a little silly right about now, you are, aren't you? Pretty bold statement to make about any sports team, probably still thinking the "Dream Team" make's it to the Superbowl; LOL!

 

[Willye]

-190 on fri wow....

 

[CaptFlippy]

-190 on fri wow....

Wow, that's crazy! Thank goodness there is NCAA football to bet on. LOL! The Capt~

 

[Stewball]

A poor wager is a wager that loses, if theres alot of chalk, and you win. Then you made a good play.

You couldn't be more wrong. Its a long term game, and the odds matter immensely.

I've played the Cardinals in Games 2-4. Odds were +162, +109, +106. Add 20 cents to each line and that is what Philly went off at. 2 wins for +268, 1 loss at 1.00 = 1.68 units of profit.

Playing Philly every game laying juice every time you win 2 units for the 2 wins, but lost at -182 and -111 = -2.93.

So by breaking even so far at 2-2 you have lost nearly a unit. How are you going to tell me playing favorites is a good thing, and that a poor wager is one that loses?? If you bet them in game 5 and they manage to win, you have basically broken even. If I were to play St Louis in Game 5 and they lose, I still am up over half a unit.

I go 2-2, you go 3-2...and I make more.

But the odds don't matter, its all about just getting the win.

Wagers that lose laying massive juice are tough to overcome. Thats why I set a threshold on how much juice I will ever lay on a favorite, no matter how much I like them.

 

[ExodusNZ]

You couldn't be more wrong. Its a long term game, and the odds matter immensely.

I've played the Cardinals in Games 2-4. Odds were +162, +109, +106. Add 20 cents to each line and that is what Philly went off at. 2 wins for +268, 1 loss at 1.00 = 1.68 units of profit.

Playing Philly every game laying juice every time you win 2 units for the 2 wins, but lost at -182 and -111 = -2.93.

So by breaking even so far at 2-2 you have lost nearly a unit. How are you going to tell me playing favorites is a good thing, and that a poor wager is one that loses?? If you bet them in game 5 and they manage to win, you have basically broken even. If I were to play St Louis in Game 5 and they lose, I still am up over half a unit.

I go 2-2, you go 3-2...and I make more.

But the odds don't matter, its all about just getting the win.

Wagers that lose laying massive juice are tough to overcome. Thats why I set a threshold on how much juice I will ever lay on a favorite, no matter how much I like them.

Well said.

 

[thess12345]

**cough** **cough**

 

[MrRodgers12]

cant wait for the series, should be electric! wont be going to game 1 as I cant ignore the packers, but will be at game 2!

 

[thess12345]

I really envy you, Rodgers. Not gunna lie though, I hope Morgan get's plunked by Motte atleast once.

 

[MrRodgers12]

I really envy you, Rodgers. Not gunna lie though, I hope Morgan get's plunked by Motte atleast once.

lol, ill take the free base runner, wouldnt be suprised if he did get plunked.

im actually in a win win situation in this series, if Brewers win it, I get my team in the World series, and would be really jacked, or if the Brewers lose, ill be pissed, but have a nice future bet on the cards winning it going still.

 

[thess12345]

ya I've seen you mention that a few times, nice odds you got. I got the Cards to win the NL at like 15-1 and felt good. I put enough on that so that if they happened to make it I could pay for a trip to a game in the WS.

I will say the Brewers scare me more than the Phillies.

 

[thess12345]

<3 the people who talk all the shit after game 1 and three and yet don't come back into the thread when the Phillies lose the series...

 

[barnzy32]

Yes, i agree. The Brewers do scare me more the Phili. They have an offense!!

 

[MrRodgers12]

Cardinals are hot no doubt, looking forward to the series.

 

[CaptFlippy]

The Phillies more than likely will not lose a game in the postseason. THATS HOW GOOD THEY ARE. Sure biased but I'm a gambler and will be on them every single game. I'm very confident they will not lose.

Have we heard from this guy since he posted this? The Capt~