when do you bet a trend? or when is a trend actually a trend and not due to random ch

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Well, that was nice. Got annihilated with Unicaja. 12-0 streak and I pounce... and o/c a fuckign over. Unluckiest dude on the planet.

And almost every other game in past few days got punked. Fantastic!



Unicaja 12-1 under (Spain)
5/26


Obradoiro 0-7 ATS
(Spain)
5/19 -- +5.0
5/26


Southland Sharks 9-1 Over
(New Zealand)
5/19
-- 198.5 , 300am EST

Legnano 13-2 Over (Italy)
5/19 -- 166.5


Oberwart Gunners 10-2 over (Austria)
5/21 --

Anwil 7-2-1 ATS (Poland)

5/21 --


Anadolu 6-0 ATS (Turkey)
5/19 -- +4.5

Kauha 8-0 ATS (Finland)
5/20 --

5/22

Hapeol Eilat 9-1 Under (Israel)

5/20 --



Some thoughts:
Unicaja -- had 44 spare going into 4th. Then a blitz. Still worthy of consideration as they did everything right, then just a collapse in one quarter.
Obra -- team in massive downward spiral. 0-7 SU and ATS last 7. Lost by avg of -13 in each game.
Southland -- back on the horse in a great over scenario vs. #1 team in league. Great over chance.

Legnano -- continues to deliver on the over. will they keep it up?
Ober -- huge defensive game out of nowhere? beginning of end for overs?
Anwil -- got game 1 on road. game 2 was a tall ask. collapsed late. good scenario for game 3 at home
Anadolu -- incredible strength, but going up against CSKA. tough ask
Kauaha -- strong. await Monday line
Hapeol -- really hot. margin in which cover the under is a good number.



This is how it always works. You take those games in the last few days and all the trends coming crashing down and lose.... and then the next day on Sunday it produces a 3-1 or 4-0. Strong feeling this will happen.
 

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Okay, cleaned it up a bit.

Going to do something different and make a "final selection" out of the options available from time to time. There are 4 games tomorrow and I can give substantial reasons why 2 of them could lose -- Anadolu and Obra. Obra is in a massive decline, but their opponent is no juggernaut.

Legnano just keeps producing but that number in that league is a slight put off... and it's also the reason why they don't raise it.

Southland -- can think of almost no reasons why it won't hit. All the stars aligned in this game. Home dog vs #1 team in league. Last game they scored almost 230 points. Had 9-0 over but then played a walk up team to kill the stream. This game is same as games before the last one. 60 pt quarter achieved... and a 50 ptr... then need 45 (easy to do) in the remaining other 2 quarters.



FINAL SELECTION [001]:

Southland over 198.5
 

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Lol, few minutes into the game and the live line has already drifted 10 points off the FT total. LMFAO. Can I curse a streak or what?

Over is already dead at this pace unless OT. Utterly.... fucking ... amazing.
 

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That is an awesome 10-0 streak. I just checked. And HOU is a +146 dog today.

NZ offered at some books, others not. It is kind of odd. Pinny refuses to do NZ basketball. Don't know why.



Southland amazingly got the win by a half point (122-77). Line closed around 195.5. Obra lost by 3 points... but have to see where the line closed at b/c I think it drifted down like the Southland line did. I go by the official close for the trend stats.



Do not understand the Nadal line (-190/+163). Djok is 14-3 SU in last 17 against Nadal. And Nadal just only recently snapped a 8-match losing streak against Djok. Nadal's form this year on clay has been shit and he has no titles on clay in 2019. He has smoked a lot of quitters in Rome, but this is a declined Nadal compared to years past. And if a high level Djok shows up, Nadal is cooked.



Some others for today:

+2 ------- Milwaukee 6-0 ATS and 10-1 ATS
169.5 --- Rasta Vechta 13-2-1 Over in last 16
-6 -------- Venezia 1-6 ATS
 

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That was pretty amazing. Won with the 'Final Selection' as posted above (over 198.5), but the official close they put at 199.5; thus a loss for the trend update.

For the official close, the four plays went 0-4. Ha ha. Pretty amazing. And the other 3 trends went 1-2. Total of 1-6. Incredible! However, did discover Rasta Vechta and they acted perfectly (now 14-2-1 over for them). They are a good performer and in full motion. One of the 2 unders in their 17 games was a loss by 1 point. From what I see, I see them to keep pouring in points.



-- Obra covered but still lost. 0-8 SU and 1-11 SU. Just were playing a team lower on the ladder, perhaps thus the better result.
-- Southland still a live one for the future.
-- Legnano a rare under bomb after going 9-1 over. Monitor
-- Anadolu ran into top team CSKA. They are the class of Europe. The cover streak ends. Season over. Removed.




Unicaja 12-1 under (Spain)
5/26


Obradoiro 1-7 ATS
(Spain)
5/26


Southland Sharks 9-2 Over
(New Zealand)
5/23 --
5/30 --
6/08 --

Legnano 13-3 Over
(Italy)

5/21

Oberwart Gunners 10-2 over (Austria)
5/21 --

Anwil 7-2-1 ATS (Poland)

5/21 --


Kauha 8-0 ATS (Finland)
5/20 -- -2.5

5/22

Hapeol Eilat 9-1 Under (Israel)

5/20 -- not available

Rasta Vechta 14-2-1 Over (Germany)
5/22 --
5/25 --




Monday:

-2.5 ------ Kauha
under ??? ---- Hapeol Eilat


Under 171.5 --- Rilski Sportist 10-1-1 Under.


Kauha appears to be the superior team by a length, imo. But -2.5 on the road in this situation. Can be risky. But hard to fade 8-0 ATS and SU.
Hapeol under looks great. Best defense team in league (Hap) vs lowest scoring team in the league (LeZion). No total yet, otherwise would add this to a final selection. New addition is Rilski (Bulgaria). One over in last two months (10-1-1 under)
 

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Should say that Djok's performance was a joke. Some days Djok will just decide to not show up and be mentally absent. When he goes into that mode, he becomes a joke. He did it against Roddick and it was pathetic. He did it today and after the first few games one knew that that type of Djok had showed up. It was reminiscent of when Nadal played Djok in the USO final and Nadal looked like he would run through a wall and Djok just didn't want to be there. Nadal beat him.

In the end, this is what will not put Djok down as the greatest of all time. He may equal or beat Fed's slam count, but with that extra mental component he could've surpassed all by a wide margin and even challenged 25 slams.



ATP French Open
Sun 5/26 5:00AM
<cite>all players have action</cite>

Rafael Nadal
<input id="editx" name="C_53" size="4"> +110
Novak Djokovic <input id="editx" name="C_54" size="4"> +250
Dominic Thiem
<input id="editx" name="C_55" size="4"> +600
Stefanos Tsitsipas
<input id="editx" name="C_56" size="4"> +2000
Roger Federer
<input id="editx" name="C_57" size="4"> +2200
Alexander Zverev <input id="editx" name="C_58" size="4"> +2800
Fabio Fognini
<input id="editx" name="C_59" size="4"> +5000
Stan Wawrinka
<input id="editx" name="C_60" size="4"> +6600
Daniil Medvedev <input id="editx" name="C_61" size="4"> +7500
Juan Martin Del Potro
<input id="editx" name="C_62" size="4"> +8000
Borna Coric <input id="editx" name="C_63" size="4"> +10000
Andy Murray <input id="editx" name="C_64" size="4"> +10000
Diego Schwartzman
<input id="editx" name="C_65" size="4"> +10000
Gael Monfils
<input id="editx" name="C_66" size="4"> +10000
Kei Nishikori <input id="editx" name="C_67" size="4"> +12500
Grigor Dimitrov <input id="editx" name="C_68" size="4"> +15000
Marco Cecchinato <input id="editx" name="C_69" size="4"> +15000
Marin Cilic <input id="editx" name="C_70" size="4"> +20000
Milos Raonic <input id="editx" name="C_71" size="4"> +20000
David Goffin <input id="editx" name="C_72" size="4"> +20000
Karen Khachanov <input id="editx" name="C_73" size="4"> +20000
Nick Kyrgios <input id="editx" name="C_74" size="4"> +20000
Hyeon Chung <input id="editx" name="C_75" size="4"> +20000
Roberto Bautista-Agut <input id="editx" name="C_76" size="4"> +20000
Fernando Verdasco <input id="editx" name="C_77" size="4"> +20000
Denis Shapovalov <input id="editx" name="C_78" size="4"> +25000
Tomas Berdych <input id="editx" name="C_79" size="4"> +25000
Nikoloz Basilashvili <input id="editx" name="C_80" size="4"> +25000
Lucas Pouille <input id="editx" name="C_81" size="4"> +30000
Pablo Carreno-Busta <input id="editx" name="C_82" size="4"> +30000
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
<input id="editx" name="C_83" size="4"> +30000
Richard Gasquet <input id="editx" name="C_84" size="4"> +30000
Kyle Edmund <input id="editx" name="C_85" size="4"> +50000
Andrey Rublev <input id="editx" name="C_86" size="4"> +50000
Cameron Norrie <input id="editx" name="C_87" size="4"> +50000

<tbody>
</tbody>
 

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All final selections are -110. Eilat is 5-0 under and 9-1 under last 10.

Israeli league can be tricky at times as it can be a high-scoring league. Eilat given up 26-27-32-33 in one half of 4 of their last 5 games. And low scoring quarters of: 12, 14, 13, 12, 09, 12, 16, 15.

If Eilat can play that kind of defense for a half, this game will have a high probability for an under.




FINAL SELECTION [002]: 1-0

Hapoel Eilat under 166.5





-3.5 ------------- Kauha , 1130am EST

Under 169 ------ Rilski Sportist 10-1-1 Under. , 12pm EST

under 166.5 ---- Hapeol Eilat , 140pm EST
 

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Trends are very misleading,teams change with personell,from front offices to players and head coaches coming and going.If you rely betting on trends,then you will lose more than you win.


Situations are a better way to go,as you can follow it closer and know more about teams involved,..JMO
 

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Eilat 81-77.

A lot of these have had only one loss in about two months. Then I post em.... and I think about 8/10 lost, lolz. Pretty amazing. Rilski just missed the under.

-3.5 ------------- Kauha , 1130am EST
Under 169 ------ Rilski Sportist 10-1-1 Under

under 166.5 ---- Hapeol Eilat , 140pm EST



Unicaja 12-1 under (Spain)
5/26


Obradoiro 1-7 ATS
(Spain)
5/26


Southland Sharks 9-2 Over
(New Zealand)
5/23 --
5/30 --
6/08 --

Legnano 13-3 Over
(Italy)

5/22 -- 162.5

Oberwart Gunners 10-2 over (Austria)
5/21 -- 153.0

Anwil 7-2-1 ATS (Poland)

5/21 -- -4.5


Kauha 8-1 ATS (Finland)

5/22

Hapeol Eilat 10-1 Under (Israel)

5/??

Rasta Vechta 14-2-1 Over (Germany)
5/22 --
5/25 --




153.0 -- Oberwart over
-4.5 ---- Anwil

??? ----- Quimsa 0-7 ATS and 1-9 ATS.
??? ----- Ormanspor 6-0 Under. Thought I listed this one before ???
176.5 -- Telekom Bonn 5-0 Over and 10-2 Over.
145.5 -- Royal Hali Gaziantep 7-1-1 Under.
+5 ----- Valladolid 6-1 ATS


No final selections. Vechta for Wednesday looks really good. Will examine.
 

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Always happy to remove a team that doesn't do it's job. Oberwart games in defense mode. Removing.

Bonn looks like it will go over. Valladolid getting thrashed. Quimsa no lines anywhere.


153.0 -- Oberwart over (151 FT)
-4.5 ---- Anwil ***
??? ----- Ormanspor 6-0 Under ***
145.5 -- Royal Hali Gaziantep 7-1-1 Under ***


176.5 -- Telekom Bonn 5-0 Over and 10-2 Over.
+5 ----- Valladolid 6-1 ATS

??? ----- Quimsa 0-7 ATS and 1-9 ATS.
 

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Will add the Teamer advisory. The other advisory in the past regarding the HOU RL was good, but I am very selective when taking RL bets. So can't add it for my particular style.


Great day finally for some of this shit.

-- Oberwart is out. Not acting right.
-- Anwil is out. They covered and go to 8-2-1, but not many games left for them and situationally (word?) not good.
-- Gazian another under -- 8-1-1. But not much room for covering in the future. Won't add them.
-- Bonn got the over. 6-0 and 11-2. Added.
-- Valladolid miracle cover. Closed at +6.5 and covered by half. Now 7-1 ATS but covering is more circumstantial. Not adding.
-- LAD ML win. 15-0. Welcome to the club.

153.0 -- Oberwart over (151 FT)
-4.5 ---- Anwil ***
??? ----- Ormanspor 6-0 Under ***
145.5 -- Royal Hali Gaziantep 7-1-1 Under ***
176.5 -- Telekom Bonn 5-0 Over and 10-2 Over ***
+5 ----- Valladolid 6-1 ATS ***
LAD ML --- LAD 14-0 last 14 with Kershaw

??? ----- Quimsa 0-7 ATS and 1-9 ATS.


Unicaja 12-1 under (Spain)
5/26


Obradoiro 1-7 ATS
(Spain)
5/26


Southland Sharks 9-2 Over
(New Zealand)
5/23 --
5/30 --
6/08 --

Legnano 13-3 Over
(Italy)

5/22 -- 162.5

Kauha 8-1 ATS (Finland)

5/22 -- -8.0

Hapeol Eilat 10-1 Under (Israel)

5/??

Rasta Vechta 14-2-1 Over (Germany)
5/22 -- 168.5
5/25 --


Bonn 6-0 Over and 11-2 (Germany)
5/25

LAD Kershaw 15-0 Win (MLB)
5/?? --



Three in action for Wednesday. Rasta is the cream of the crop. If loses, range of 162-168. Will either be extremely close or a win.
Side note: Won't ever add Kershaw as a FS unless he's -110 or better. All FS's -110.


FINAL SELECTION [003]: 2-0

Rasta Vechta over 168.5
 

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Wed.

162.5 ---- Legnano 13-3 over
-8.0 ------ Kauha 8-1 ATS
168.5 ---- Rasta 14-2-1 over

-3.5 ------ Armani 2-10-1 ATS
+3.0 ----- Dinamo Sassari 15-3 ATS (Have not lost a game since 3/10)




 

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Vechta up to 171.

Btw, for future fun a parlay would have (aprox odds):

+2400 odds : 5-teamer (no pun intended)
+4700 odds : 6-teamer
+9100 odds : 7-teamer

$20 > 480
$20 > 940
$20 > 1820
 

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Amazing. Literally running and gunning, but no shots falling. Started game with missing about first 8 shots. Both teams shot in the teens.

15-11, end 1st

Need 47,48,48 from here on out. In all likelihood that killed the over. Did take over 41.5 for 2nd, though. Oh well, can't win em all.... unless you get OT.
 

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