Wednesday 3/11/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott made Valspar 'chalk'

Tournament: Valspar Championship
Date: Mar. 12 - Mar. 15
Venue: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
Location: Palm Harbor, FL

The PGA continues its Florida swing of the season when they head to Palm Harbor for the Valspar Championship. This is a fairly new event as it was founded back in 2000 and has been held annually since then at the par-71, 7,340-yard Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club. Scores have become increasingly hard to come by here in the past few years with the winner doing worse in each successive season since Gary Woodland posted a 15-under in 2011.

Last year it was Aussie John Senden who held off Americans Kevin Na and Scott Langley for the win. He shot a score of 7-under over the four days of the tourney, posted the lowest round of the week with a 64 on Saturday and tamed the “Snake Pit” for two birdies on the final day of competition. Only two players (K.J. Choi and Retief Goosen) have earned the trophy here multiple times and eight of the 14 champions have been from other countries besides the United States.

It should be an exciting field to watch as Henrik Stenson and Adam Scott stay in Florida to compete here and join Jim Furyk, Justin Rose and Jordan Spieth to round out players from the top-10 of the Official World Golf Rankings in the field. Besides that just three other golfers (Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed and Jamie Donaldson) will be competing from the top-25 in the OWGR.

Now let’s take a look over some players who could do really well this week and bring home a win come Sunday.

Golfers to Bet:

Jim Furyk (20/1): The Valspar Championship is one of 16 tournaments that Furyk has won over his tremendous career, doing so with a score of 13-under par in 2010. Since then he has continued to play solid golf at Innisbrook with a top-20 finish each year and also was the runner-up in 2012. Furyk was the best scrambler on tour last year after being successful in 69.3% of his opportunities and he already has a scrambling percentage of 66.7% on the year. He has dotted the top of the leaderboard in each of the first three events he’s played in this year so far, placing no worse than 14th, and seems poised to earn his first win since 2010 in Palm Harbor this week.

Daniel Berger (40/1): Berger is the newest phenom on what is becoming a young man’s game with super-athletic newcomers poised to rule the game. He showed his ability on the main stage when he took on Paddy Harrington in a playoff at the Honda Classic, eventually losing, but showing that his first win is not far off. It wasn’t his first solid showing, though, and he has six top-25’s and three top-10’s in 11 events this year. His combination of total driving (93, 8th on tour) and scrambling (62.8%, 53rd on tour) should give the 21-year-old the power and finesse that it takes to win on this course.

Harris English (40/1): English missed his last cut at the Honda Classic, but had made it to the weekend in each of the previous six tourneys and included both a third and second-place finish. He’s long off the tee (299.5 yards per, 27th on tour) and has a scrambling percentage of 65.6% (27th on tour) which allowed him to get a seventh-place finish at this event back in 2013. He’s been a consistent competitor on tour over the past three years with a total of 13 top-10’s since the start of 2013 and while he only has two victories, he should always remain a threat to put up some low numbers and this week is no different.

Justin Leonard (500/1): Leonard is a long way away from being the player who has won on the tour 12 times in his career and he hasn’t done so since 2008. While he hasn’t played to the top of his game, he’s always put up solid efforts at Innisbrook and has three top-30 finishes in the past four years; including a fourth in 2013. His scrambling (68.5%, 10th on tour) and driving accuracy (67.9%, 22nd on league) show that he is still an extremely talented golfer and could put up his best effort of the year this week.

Boo Weekley (85/1): Weekley is having a great start to the year and has already nearly matched his winnings from last year and has three top-10’s in his first eight events after getting just one such finish last year in 24 tourneys. The three-time PGA Tour winner is coming off a solid tie for sixth at the Puerto Rico Open when he shot 69-68 on the weekend. He hasn’t performed particularly well here recently, with a missed cut in 2012 and an 84th-place finish last year, but he showed he can tame Innisbrook with a runner-up performance in 2013 where he shot an amazing 63 on Sunday and nearly overtook Kevin Streelman. His amazing ability to dominate the courses with strokes gained tee-to-green (1.22, 10th on tour) and finesse with a 64.3% success-rate scrambling (30th on tour) will give him every opportunity to string together some nice holes and low scores.

Valspar Championship Betting Odds

Adam Scott 12/1
Henrik Stenson 25/2
Jordan Spieth 27/2
Jim Furyk 20/1
Patrick Reed 24/1
Matt Kuchar 25/1
Luke Donald 27/1
Justin Rose 29/1
Brandt Snedeker 30/1
Lee Westwood 30/1
Ryan Moore 30/1
Nick Watney 35/1
Daniel Berger 40/1
Gary Woodland 40/1
Harris English 40/1
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Jamie Donaldson 45/1
Kevin Na 45/1
Martin Laird 50/1
Russell Knox 55/1
Jason Dufner 60/1
Sangmoon Bae 60/1
Will MacKenzie 60/1
Ian Poulter 65/1
Padraig Harrington 65/1
Brendon Todd 70/1
Charley Hoffman 70/1
John Senden 70/1
Joost Luiten 75/1
Justin Thomas 75/1
Cameron Tringale 80/1
Boo Weekley 85/1
Kevin Streelman 85/1
Brian Harman 95/1
Charles Howell III 95/1
Brendon de Jonge 100/1
Francesco Molinari 100/1
George McNeill 100/1
Retief Goosen 100/1
Shawn Stefani 100/1
Robert Garrigus 110/1
William McGirt 110/1
Freddie Jacobson 120/1
Jerry Kelly 120/1
Kevin Chappell 120/1
Marc Leishman 120/1
Adam Hadwin 120/1
Chesson Hadley 130/1
Jonathan Byrd 130/1
Tony Finau 140/1
Alex Prugh 150/1
Daniel Summerhays 150/1
Jason Kokrak 150/1
K.J. Choi 150/1
Scott Stallings 150/1
Morgan Hoffmann 160/1
David Toms 170/1
Rory Sabbatini 170/1
Scott Langley 180/1
David Hearn 190/1
Jeff Overton 190/1
Sean O 'Hair 190/1
Carlos Ortiz 200/1
Ernie Els 200/1
Matt Every 200/1
Will Wilcox 200/1
Jonas Blixt 210/1
John Peterson 220/1
Zac Blair 230/1
Alex Cejka 240/1
Jon Curran 240/1
Martin Flores 240/1
Michael Thompson 240/1
Andrew Svoboda 250/1
Blayne Barber 250/1
Brian Stuard 250/1
Bryce Molder 250/1
Charlie Beljan 250/1
Colt Knost 250/1
Jhonattan Vegas 250/1
Michael Putnam 250/1
Spencer Levin 250/1
Vijay Singh 250/1
Ben Crane 300/1
Bo Van Pelt 300/1
Carl Pettersson 300/1
J.J. Henry 300/1
Jason Bohn 300/1
Jim Herman 300/1
John Huh 300/1
Kyle Reifers 300/1
Ryo Ishikawa 300/1
S.J. Park 300/1
Scott Brown 300/1
Stewart Cink 300/1
Chad Campbell 350/1
Chad Collins 350/1
D.A. Points 350/1
Erik Compton 350/1
Fabian Gomez 350/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 350/1
Lucas Glover 350/1
Andres Romero 400/1
Billy Hurley III 400/1
Brian Davis 400/1
Danny Lee 400/1
Hudson Swafford 400/1
John Merrick 400/1
Kevin Kisner 400/1
Luke Guthrie 400/1
Mark Wilson 400/1
Max Homa 400/1
Nicholas Thompson 400/1
Ken Duke 450/1
Ricky Barnes 450/1
Steve Wheatcroft 450/1
Derek Fathauer 500/1
Justin Leonard 500/1
Steven Bowditch 500/1
Tim Wilkinson 500/1
Chez Reavie 550/1
John Daly 550/1
Justin Hicks 550/1
Robert Allenby 550/1
Sam Saunders 550/1
Troy Merritt 550/1
Brice Garnett 600/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Auto CampingWorld 500
By Micah Roberts

Are you kidding me with Kevin Harvick? This guy is on some kind of major roll right now and things will get only tougher for the rest of the NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers as Harvick goes to his best track, Phoenix, this weekend.

All Harvick has done after winning his first Sprint Cup title in 2014 is finish second-place in the first two races of 2015 and then win his first Las Vegas Cup race on Sunday. If we go back to the final three races of 2014, Harvick has finished first or second in six straight races now. He's won in four of his last nine starts.

And now he goes to Phoenix where he's won six times over his career including the last three races there and four of the last five. How do you bet anyone else this week? The only problem with betting Harvick is that the sports books know all this past history as well and you'll be lucky to get 7/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $350).

So let's see if we can make a case for anyone else and to begin with we'll take a look at Jimmie Johnson who will be the second choice to win at 5/1 odds.

All Johnson has done at Phoenix is win four times and average a 7.7 finish which is tops in the series. The only problem with Johnson is that his last Phoenix win was 2009. He's gone 10 races there without winning -- his longest Phoenix drought.

Carl Edwards is the only driver other than Harvick to win at Phoenix over the past five races there. In addition to his 2013 win, he also won in 2010 and has a 12.2 average finish. The problem with Edwards is that he's yet to have a top-10 in three starts in his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing. Because of his past history, you'll only get 12 to-1 odds him which isn't attractive enough considering his slow start to 2015.

Another driver having an awful time of it thus far has been Jeff Gordon who is currently 29th in points. He's had a great car in all three races so far, but has had every kind of bad luck imaginable. On Saturday at Las Vegas, his pole winning car was struck by Danica Patrick in practice and he was forced into a back-up car which had to start from the rear. He's had 32 starts at Phoenix and captured two wins and an 11th-place average finish. His car will be good once again and at 10-to-1 odds, he's an attractive wager. But the bad luck part of his season looms large and might have a few bettors shy away from him at the bet window.

Denny Hamlin also has a career average of 11th-place at Phoenix in his 19 career starts, which includes a win in 2012. Hamlin's best type of tracks over his career has been the flat variety and Phoenix is about as flat as they get. He's had four top-5 finishes in his last six Phoenix starts. He presents good value at 12-to-1 odds.

Brad Keselowski hasn't won at Phoenix before but he did win on similar flat tracks at Richmond and New Hampshire last year. He's finished sixth or better in five of his last six Phoenix starts.

The driver that will probably give Harvick his most competition is Keselowski's Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano who had his best season of racing at Phoenix last year with a fourth and sixth-place finish. Logano has the look of a being a force all season long and he should find himself with his third top-5 finish of the season, and maybe his first win on the track.

The only driver to have top-5 finishes in all three races this season besides Harvick has been Dale Earnhardt Jr., who will get 8-to-1 odds this week. He won at Phoenix in the 2003 and 2004 season and is on a run of finishing eigth or better in his past four starts there, including runner-up in this race last season.

A driver everyopne can't help but root for is Martin Truex Jr. who has shown extraordinary power in the first three races of 2015 and currently sits fifth in points. It's rare to see a single car team have success in NASCAR and it's even rarer to see a team have any success when their garage isn't in Charlotte -- Furniture Row Racing is based out of Denver. If including the two non-points races at Daytona, Truex Jr. has finished eighth or better in all five races, including runner-up at Las Vegas Sunday. His best run at Phoenix was fifth-place in 2009.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (7/2)
2) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
3) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
5) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Rockets (43-20) at Trail Blazers (41-20)


Date: March 11, 2015 10:30 PM EDT

The Houston Rockets have been doing fine without Dwight Howard, though their defensive stalwart may soon return.

The Portland Trail Blazers aren't as fortunate.

Following an ugly first look at how things could be without Wesley Matthews, the Blazers now must overcome their top perimeter defender's absence against one of the league's most prolific backcourt stars as they host James Harden and the Rockets on Wednesday night.

Then again, having Matthews for the teams' first two meetings didn't help Portland stop Harden. Two of his four highest-scoring games of the season came against the Blazers, posting 44 points in a 110-95 win Dec. 22 and scoring 45 in a 109-98 defeat Feb. 8.

Maybe the key to those results was the losing team missing its best big man. LaMarcus Aldridge sat out the first meeting with an illness, then had a team-high 24 points last month as Portland outscored Houston in the paint 46-30. Howard sat out that game with a right knee injury which continues to keep him sidelined, though coach Kevin McHale said it was "a good sign" over the weekend that the former Defensive Player of the Year had begun some conditioning and floor work.

While Houston (43-20) has managed a 13-6 record since losing Howard, winning seven of its last nine, Portland (41-20) was handed a bad loss in its only game after Matthews suffered a season-ending ruptured Achilles. The Blazers entered Minnesota on Saturday with a five-game winning streak but lost 121-113 to the Western Conference's worst team, surrendering their highest point total of the season.

"I probably talk to him more than anybody, so it's definitely different," Aldridge said of being without Matthews. "But we've got guys out there that can go compete still."

Matthews might have been able to help slow down Timberwolves shooting guards Kevin Martin and Gary Neal, who combined for 56 points to help offset Damian Lillard's 32.

"(Matthews) does it all. He can defend, he can post up, he can knock down the open 3," Neal said. "They're definitely going to miss him."

Arron Afflalo, not known for his defense, moved into the starting lineup and had 14 points - only slightly below Matthews' average - but fouled out for the first time in two years and had no steals. Matthews is among the NBA leaders since the beginning of February with 2.0 per game.

"There were times that he was just trying to do the right thing," Lillard said of Afflalo, acquired from Denver on Feb. 19. "I had to keep encouraging him to be himself."

Harden is certainly doing that, averaging 29.3 points this month despite recently being surpassed by Russell Westbrook for the NBA scoring lead (27.4 to 27.1). Additionally, Harden has added 9.9 assists per game over his last seven.

However, it may be as important to the Rockets that Corey Brewer keeps stepping up. They're 7-1 since Jan. 23 when he surpasses his season average of 11.4 points, including 24 in Saturday's 114-100 win in Denver.

"He's a game-changer," Harden said.

Brewer has been a catalyst since being acquired from Minnesota in a three-team trade in December.

"I feel if I have a lot of energy it picks everybody else up," he said.

This game is Houston's first in Portland since Lillard hit a series-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer in Game 6 in the first round of last year's playoffs. The Rockets have been in town since Sunday.

"Of course (the Rockets remember the shot) but I think they aren't thinking about that," Lillard said. "It's not the playoffs right now. They're coming in here just trying to get another win."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Rough road ahead'

Washington fell 91-85 to the Milwaukee Bucks Saturday night. It was the eight loss in ten attempts for the Wizards. Dropping the loot as 4.5 point road underdogs in Milwaukee the Wizards have now lost nine straight at the betting window. Wizards try to reverse this rough stretch for backers when they visit Charlotte Monday night. It'll be a bumpy road for Washington. The Wizards not playing very good ball have been stung twice already this season by Hornets and have lost the past five SU/ATS vs their division rival. Those numbers in hand and knowing Wizards hit the court having lost nine consecutive games away from the Nation's Capital (1-8 ATS) the lean is Charlotte ridding a 5-0 (4-1 ATS) winning streak. Sportsbooks have BUGS 2.5 point chalk, a favorable number as Hornets have covered in six of nine at home laying 3.5 or less.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB AAC Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence

March 12-15
All games played at XL Center - Hartford, CT

TECH NOTES:
Teams off a DD SU win are 5-0 ATS
Teams are 4-1 ATS off a DD ATS win
Teams are 4-1 ATS vs opp off SU win w/ revenge

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: SMU, TULSA, TEMPLE, CONNECTICUT

THE WAY WE SEE IT:
The 2nd year of this newbie conference tournament finds former one-year lessee Louisville now calling the ACC home. Stepping in to fill their shoes is the Larry Brown-led SMU Mustangs, one of only two teams in the country to currently rank in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive field goal percentage (Utah the other). Last year’s NIT runner-up, the Ponies rebounded from a sluggish 2-3 start to lead the charge on this conference. They’ll need to overcome a putrid 1-11 SU and 2-9-1 ATS recent conference tourney mark, including 9 straight losses... Frank Haith is one of three new coaches in the loop this season, leaving Missouri for TULSA in a surprise move. The Hurricane returned eight rotation players from last year’s NCAA tournament team and were tied atop the conference with SMU prior to Sunday's loss. Haith’s sparkling 15-5 ATS record in conference tourney games jumps off the page, as does his 17-4-1 ATS career mark as a favorite in games against opponents off a double-digit win.

Last season TEMPLE became the first team in school history to lose 20 or more games in a single season. As a result, the Owls missed out on the NCAA tournament for only the 2nd time in Dunphy’s 8-year tenure with Temple. An influx of transfers, coupled with a tenacious brand of defense, has the Owls in prime contention to snap three straight one-and-outs in this tourney and head back to the dance floor... And then there is CONNECTICUT, last year’s NCAA tournament champs. Kevin Ollie’s squad is certainly nowhere near last year’s level but you simply can’t ignore the Huskies’ postseason pedigree: 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in conference tourney play since 2011. Ollie’s 33-2 SU mark against sub .600 foes figures to find them advancing deep into this event. THE SLEEPER: CINCINNATI
20-win Bearcats bowed out as the top seed in this event to UConn last season and loom as a legitimate threat. An impressive 5-1 SUATS mark in games this season versus .750 or greater opponents confirms that notion.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET:

PLAY AGAINST ANY TEAM OFF A DOUBLE-DIGIT WIN
In analyzing results from this fledgling conference tournament last season, it’s apparent that no one team stands heads and shoulders above another. A shocking 0-5 SUATS mark by teams performing in AAC tourney games off a double-digit victory is proof of that judgment.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB A-10 Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence

March 11-15
All games played at Barclays Center - Brooklyn, NY

TECH NOTES:
-- Favorites w/3+ days of rest are 13-2 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS losses
-- Favorites w/3+ days of rest are 13-3 ATS off BB SU losses
-- DD favorites are 2-5 ATS off a DD ATS win
-- Dogs are 14-30-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge
-- Dogs are 19-41-1 ATS off a SU dog win
-- #1 seeds are 0-4 ATS as dogs
-- #2 seeds are 11-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win
-- #4 seeds are 15-3 ATS L18 as favorites
-- #5 seeds are 0-6 ATS as dogs off SUATS loss
-- #7 seeds are 5-1 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 5-0 ATS off DD SU loss and 6-1 dogs vs opp off SUATS loss

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: VCU, DAVIDSON, DAYTON, RHODE ISLAND

THE WAY WE SEE IT: This revamped conference has delivered 11 teams to the Big Dance the past two seasons, including six last year, with Dayton making it to the Elite Eight. Last year’s champ, VCU, was a preseason Top 20 squad, only to underachieve this campaign. The Rams also own spotty performances in conference tourney play, most notably a 1-8 ATS mark as double-digit chalk. In addition, Shaka Smart’s crew showed a propensity to play down to the level of opposition this season, going just 6-10 ATS versus sub .666 opponents. Still, the Rams are very dangerous and if they play anywhere to their preseason potential, they could be cutting down the nets at the Barclays Center.

Newcomer DAVIDSON arrived as a perennial power from the Southern Conference and did not disappoint. The Wildcats have appeared in 12 NCAA (missed last year) and 6 NIT tourneys, while owning 12 conference tournament titles since 1966. Veteran Bob McKillop has been the Davidson head coach for each of the last 26 years. Color this team experienced and dangerous (20-4 ATS this season at press time)... After being bounced by Florida in the Elite Eight, DAYTON played with renewed confidence this season. A 6-2 SUATS mark (at press time) against .500 or greater A-10 foes keeps the Flyers in a positive state of mind. RHODE ISLAND, the 3rd of four 20-win teams in this competitive conference, chewed up and spit out sub .666 foes this season, going 18-2 SU and 11-6 ATS. They stalled, however, with a 2-5 SUATS mark against anything better – all of which figures to earn them a win or two in this tourney.

THE SLEEPER: GEORGE WASHINGTON
The Colonials were pegged as the 2nd best team in this loop by the A-10 media before the first whistle sounded. And they played like it, bolting out to a 16-4 start before unraveling down the stretch. The feeling here is the lure of a 20-win season, coupled with a 16-7 ATS conference tourney record they bring to this party, is about to pay off as a 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record on neutral floors this season raises the bar.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET:

PLAY ON: NO. 1 SEED IN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
As competitive as this league is and has been, top seeds have been like annuities when arriving to the championship games. That’s confirmed by our well-oiled machine as it notes No. 1 seeds are 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in title games when facing a No. 2 or lower seed, including 6-0 ATS as favorites of 5 or more points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 10 Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence

March 11-15
All games played at United Center - Chicago, IL

TECH NOTES:
-- Teams are 8-1 ATS w/DD SU revenge, dogs 6-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs opp off BB SU wins w/revenge
-- DD dogs off a DD SU loss are 5-2 ATS
-- Teams off BB SU losses are 8-2 ATS w/same-season revenge
-- Teams off a SU dog win are 1-5 ATS vs opp off a SU favorite loss
-- #1 seeds are 8-2 ATS S’07 vs #6 seeds or lower opp off SU win
-- #2 seeds are 5-1 ATS off 3 SUATS wins
-- #3 seeds are 2-8 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins and 1-4 ATS off DD ATS win
-- #5 seeds are 7-0 ATS off a SU dog win
-- #7 seeds are 5-0 ATS w/revenge, 0-7 ATS off SU loss vs opp w/revenge
-- #10 seeds are 6-0 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 7-1 ATS off BB SU losses and 8-2 ATS off SU loss

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: WISCONSIN, MARYLAND, OHIO STATE, MICHIGAN STATE

THE WAY WE SEE IT:
The NCAA Tournament committee will have its hands full trying to decide which teams to leave home from the powerful Big Ten conference with as many as nine teams in the loop likely to have 20 wins by the time the nets are cut down in this tourney. WISCONSIN is the most likely choice to capture a No. 1 seed, and deservedly so. Only Kentucky and Virginia own fewer losses away from home at press time this season. While 12 of their 16 tourney wins have been by double-digit margins, the Badgers have been anything but money winners in conference play the past two seasons (13-22-2 ATS overall), and last won this title in 2008 – as a No. 1 seed. MARYLAND, slotted into the 10th spot by preseason poll beat writers, was a major overachiever thanks to a dominating 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS mark in games versus greater-than .777 foes this season. But a 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS record against No. 1 seeds in conference tourney games may end up biting the Turtles in the end.

Ranked 15th in the preseason polls, OHIO STATE disappointed despite an offense that ranked in the Top 10 in offensive field goal percentage. A 3-7 SU and 2-7-1 ATS mark in games away from Columbus does not bode well. However, an 18-4 SU record in this event since 2007, with 6 title game appearances, could prove to be the perfect placebo needed. And speaking of strong Big Ten tourney history, last year’s champ MICHIGAN STATE brings a sparkling 22-12 SU record into this event since 1999. And when it comes to title games, Tom Izzo’s troops are a spotless 4-0 SUATS in Big Ten championship games. Can’t fade that.

THE SLEEPER: IOWA
The Hawkeyes earned their stripes as a visiting team this season with an 8-3 SU and 7-3 ATS record. They were also outstanding in games versus sub .850 opposition, going 18-5 SU and 12-6-1 ATS. All of which leads us to Iowa’s 19-8 ATS mark in this tourney, including 12-1 ATS off back-to-back wins. Under most circumstances, a resumé like that would earn most teams Final Four status in events like this.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET:

PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE WITH REVENGE
Once again we’ll take a leap of faith with Tom Izzo – not all that hard, actually – and back them with revenge in this affair. It would serve you well to note that the Spartans are 29-10 SU and 28-8-1 ATS with same-season conference revenge since 2000 – including 22-0 SU and 19-2-1 ATS when favored by 4 or more points – and 6-0 ATS in this tourney. Enough said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence

March 11-14
All games played at Sprint Center - Kansas City, MO

TECH NOTES:
-- Favorites off BB SU losses are 6-13 ATS
-- Teams who are 3-0 SUATS L3 are 1-11 ATS with revenge and 2-12 ATS as dogs
-- Teams are 0-9 ATS w/DD SU revenge and 0-8 ATS w/ same season revenge
-- Dogs off BB SU wins are 2-9 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss
-- #1 seeds are 0-8 ATS w/3+ rest off SUATS win, 0-5 ATS off DD ATS win w/ 3+ rest and 1-6 ATS w/3+ rest vs opp off DD SU win
-- #2 seeds are 4-0 ATS w/same-season revenge, 7-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU & BB SUATS wins
-- #5 seeds are 5-1 ATS w/ same season double-revenge, 0-6 ATS L6 vs opp off SUATS win, 0-6 ATS L6 vs opp off SUATS win and 0-5 ATS vs opp off SU dog win
-- #6 seeds are 1-6 ATS w/revenge vs opp off SUATS win
-- #8 seeds are 6-0 ATS as DD dogs and 10-1 ATS vs an opp off SU win

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: KANSAS, BAYLOR, OKLAHOMA, IOWA STATE

THE WAY WE SEE IT:
With each team in the conference having played one another, and only two teams owning a losing record, this is arguably the most talented loop in the land. They are, however, a far cry from the Big 12 that sported three 30-game winners – for only the 2nd time in NCAA history – two seasons ago. Ten consecutive regular season championships makes KANSAS the overwhelming choice in this event. That and the fact they were the only team in the Big 12 with the possibility of finishing the season with a winning record on the conference road (check result at Oklahoma Saturday, 3/7). A loss to Iowa State in the semi’s last year prevented the Jayhawks from reaching the championship game for the 10th time since 1997. FYI: when they do arrive, they perform like Dorothy and her friends in Emerald City, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last ten title games…

BAYLOR opened (11-1 SU) and closed (5-1 ATS) the season on a strong foot, thus landing them the 2nd slot in our projected Final Four. A 13-2 SU and 6-3 ATS log this season against .666 or less opponents should get them to the semi’s and from there, who knows? What we do know is the Bears lost to Iowa State in the title game last season and will be anxious to make another appearance.

OKLAHOMA hit a bit of a spread wall coming down the stretch of the regular season (0-5 ATS at press time), and have failed miserably of late in this tourney (3-10 SU and 1-12 ATS last 13 games), but Sooners head coach Lon Kruger is conference tournament tested: 19-8 SU and 17-10 ATS versus sub .770 foes. Given the fact his troops are the 10th ranked team in the land in defensive field goal percentage, we’ll likely ‘buy’ rather than ‘sell’ the Sooners this go-round. IOWA STATE returns as the defending champion knowing they were 1-9 SU in their previous ten games in this event prior to pulling off last year’s surprise. Carrying the weight of that bulls-eye may be asking too much, especially since the last time they managed to capture this tourney, they were bounced in the NCAA first round as 11.5-point favorites. Yikes.

THE SLEEPER: TEXAS
This former Top 10 squad was bit by the injury bug and lost its way as the season progressed. Yet they still managed to finish in the Top 10 in defensive field goal percentage and rebound margin (along with Kentucky and Virginia), the two staples when it comes to defining quality teams. Landing a 20th win in this tourney would go a long way toward an invite to the Big Dance.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET:

WEST VIRGINIA IN GAME ONE
At first glance this might look hard to swallow, given the Mountaineers’ one-game-and-out mark each of the past four Big 12 tourneys. Remember, though, none of those four squads owned a win percentage of greater than .666. In conference tourney games with greater-than .666 teams, Bob Huggins is 30-8 SU, including 14-2 SU in tourney openers. This year’s team can play.

 

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Looking for Leaders
By Jim Feist

College Basketball’s Diminishing Edge: Senior Leadership

It's time! Time for college basketball teams to begin conference tourney play, also known as separating the contenders from the pretenders. It's important to understand and closely examine the schedule of college hoop teams. Some teams start off the season playing a bunch of cream puffs, while others face a mixture of good and bad teams.

What has taken shape the last few months, though, is largely conference play. Since conferences are purposely made up of schools with a similar level of talent, you need to pay attention to how teams start the season and what their schedule was like. Some schools want to get a few cheap victories over smaller schools and fatten up their won/lost record early in the season, while others want to test their teams early to toughen them up for conference play

Now it's time for conference tournament play, essentially the THIRD season of college basketball. The first season was November and December, non-conference games, plus coaches trying to figure out their personnel and strengths and weaknesses. The second season has been conference play the last two months, and now it's tourney time. This is where the weak links drop off, while the better and more motivated teams advance.

So this time of the season, is it important to have senior leadership? Kentucky dazzled everyone with their kids three years ago winning the title and Anthony Davis was the 4th freshman to win the Final Four Most Outstanding Player Award. However, that is not the norm, either. Remember that their only senior, Darius Miller, was 6th man off the bench and was the second leading scorer in the Final Four win over Louisville with 13 points.

Last year No. 7 seeded UConn was a surprise national champ. Think they had an abundance of experienced leadership? Of the starting five, Shabazz Napier dazzled, along with fellow senior Niels Giffey, plus DeAndre Daniels and Ryan Boatright were juniors. That experienced team didn’t miss a free throw in the title victory againhst Kentucky, 60-54, while the young Wildcats went 13-of-24 (54% from the line).

Two years ago Louisville won it all with one senior and two juniors in the starting lineup. The previous five years before the Kentucky kids won it, college basketball's champions, UConn, Duke, Kansas, Florida and North Carolina, had a combined 20 of 25 starters who were juniors or seniors. In 2011 UConn had a pair of juniors, including star Kemba Walker, while the team they beat, Butler, was a senior-laden squad.

Four years ago, Duke started 3 seniors and 2 juniors in the title game against Butler. In 2009 North Carolina had three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup when they whipped Michigan State for the title, 89-72. Clearly, having that kind of an edge in experience can be an important factor, though it isn't everything, especially with more college athletes leaving earlier for the pros.

The two years prior to those teams, Florida and North Carolina had starting fives with no seniors. 11 years ago, Syracuse's Jim Boeheim combined with a gifted group of freshmen and sophomores to win the NCAA title. The Orangemen upset Kansas in a thrilling finale, 81-78, with a starting five of two freshmen (F Carmelo Anthony, G Billy Edelin), two sophomores (C Craig Forth, F Hakim Warrick) and only one senior (G Keith Duany). The kids played like veterans for the Orangemen and note that Syracuse was 9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS on the road. No nerves away from home for the kids, straight up and against the number!

In the final three tournament games they were a +3, +3 and +5 dog to Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas and won them all straight up (+200 in the title game on the money-line). We are in an era with fewer seniors in college hoops, but let's not downplay the value of veteran leadership, as the Blue Devils showcased last season.

The 2006 Florida team had four junior starters who had been together for a while, then came back the next year and repeated. North Carolina in 2005 had three rock solid juniors in Ray Felton, Sean May and Rashard McCants. In 2004, UConn had senior guard Taliek Brown and star junior center Emeka Okafur.

If you're looking for a team that might win it all, history suggests talent, depth, good coaching and experienced leadership are four key ingredients for success in March. So, yes, generally speaking, junior and senior leadership are important assets to have during conference tournament play and the upcoming Big Dance.

NCAA Champions

2014 UConn (2 seniors, 2 juniors)
2013 Louisville (1 senior, 2 juniors)
2012 Kentucky (none)
2011 UConn (2 juniors)
2010 Duke (4 senior starters, 1 junior)
2009 North Carolina (3 senior starters, 2 juniors)
2008 Kansas (2 junior starters, 2 seniors)
2007 Florida (4 junior starters, 1 senior)
2006 Florida (4 junior starters)
2005 North Carolina (3 junior starters, Felton, McCants, May)
2004 UConn (1 key senior, Taliek Brown, junior Emeka Okafur)
2003 Syracuse (Starters: 2 frosh, 2 soph, 1 senior)
2002 Maryland (2 key seniors, Lonnie Baxter, Juan Dixon)
2001 Duke (1 key senior, Shane Battier)
2000 Michigan State (Starters: 3 seniors, 2 juniors)
1999 Connecticut (Starters: 2 seniors, 2 juniors)
1998 Kentucky (Starters: 2 seniors, 3 juniors)
1997 Arizona (Starters: 3 juniors)
1996 Kentucky (Starters: 2 seniors, 2 juniors)
1995 UCLA (Starters: 3 seniors)

 

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Conference Tournament Odds

Odds provided by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

ODDS TO WIN AAC
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: Hartford, CT
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 5:30 pm Pacific time) SMU 7/5
UCONN 7/2
CINCINNATI 7/2
TULSA 7/1
TEMPLE 7/1
MEMPHIS 10/1
FIELD 60/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 ACC TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 10-14, 2-15
Location: Greensboro, NC
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 9:00 am Pacific time) DUKE 7/4
VIRGINIA 7/4
NOTRE DAME 6/1
LOUISVILLE 8/1
FIELD 3/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-15, 2015
Location: Brooklyn, NY
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 11:30 am Pacific time) DAVIDSON 2/1
DAYTON 3/1
VCU 3/1
RHODE ISLAND 7/1
RICHMOND 10/1
GEORGE WASHINGTON 12/1
FIELD 10/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: New York, NY
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 9:00 am Pacific time)
VILLANOVA 4/5
GEORGETOWN 4/1
BUTLER 7/1
XAVIER 7/1
PROVIDENCE 7/1 ST JOHN'S 12/1
FIELD 100/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 BIG 10 TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-15, 2015
Location: Chicago, IL
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 11:30 am Pacific time)
WISCONSIN 4/5
OHIO ST 9/2
MICHIGAN ST 6/1
MARYLAND 6/1
IOWA 15/1
PURDUE 15/1
INDIANA 60/1
FIELD 15/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: Kansas City, MO
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 9:30 am Pacific time)
KANSAS 3/1
IOWA ST 7/2
OKLAHOMA 7/2
BAYLOR 9/2
WEST VIRGINIA 8/1
OKLAHOMA ST 15/1
FIELD 9/2

ODDS TO WIN 2015 BIG SKY TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 12-14, 2015
Location: Missoula, MT
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 10:00 am Pacific time)
MONTANA 6/5
EASTERN WASHINGTON 9/5
NORTHERN ARIZONA 6/1
SACRAMENTO ST 8/1
NORTHERN COLORADO 15/1
IDAHO 30/1
WEBER ST 30/1
PORTLAND ST 25/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 BIG WEST TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 12-14, 2015
Location: Anaheim, CA
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 12:00 pm Pacific time)
UCSB 5/2
CAL IRVINE 5/2
CAL DAVIS 3/1
LONG BEACH ST 9/2
HAWAII 8/1
CAL POLY 12/1
CAL RIVERSIDE 40/1
NORTHRIDGE ST 200/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 CONFERENCE USA TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 10-14, 2015
Location: Birmingham, AL
(Close betting on Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 12:30 pm Pacific time)
LOUISIANA TECH 2/1
OLD DOMINION 2/1
UTEP 4/1
UAB 5/1
WESTERN KENTUCKY 10/1
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST 25/1
CHARLOTTE 25/1
FIELD 50/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 MAC TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 9-14, 2015
Location: Cleveland, OH
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 3:30 pm Pacific time)
BUFFALO 7/5
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 3/1
TOLEDO 3/1
KENT ST 15/1
FIELD 3/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 MOUNTAIN WEST TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: Las Vegas, NV
(Close betting on Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 12:00 pm Pacific time)
SAN DIEGO ST 9/4
BOISE ST 9/4
COLORADO ST 5/2
UNLV 6/1
WYOMING 12/1
UTAH ST 25/1
NEW MEXICO 25/1
FRESNO ST 60/1
AIR FORCE 200/1
NEVADA 300/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 PAC 12 TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: Las Vegas, NV
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2014 at 12:00 pm Pacific time)
ARIZONA 4/7
UTAH 3/1
OREGON 8/1
UCLA 10/1
FIELD 7/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 SEC TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-15, 2015
Location: Nashville, TN
(Close betting on Friday, March 13, 2015 at 10:00 am Pacific time)
KENTUCKY 5/18
FIELD 16/5

ODDS TO WIN 2015 SOUTHLAND TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: Katy, TX
(Close betting on Friday March 13, 2014 at 3:00 pm Pacific time)
STEPHEN F AUSTIN 1/2
SAM HOUSTON ST 5/2
FIELD 5/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 SUN BELT LEAGUE TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 12-15, 2015
Location: New Orleans, LA
(Close betting on Friday, March 13, 2015 at 3:00 pm Pacific time)
GEORGIA ST 5/7
GEORGIA SOUTHERN 3/1
LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 4/1
LOUISIANA MONROE 12/1
FIELD 8/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 WAC TOURNAMENT
Date: MARCH 12 / 14, 2015
Location: LAS VEGAS, NV
(Close betting on Friday, March 13, 2015 at 6:00 pm Pacific time)
NEW MEXICO ST 5/11
FIELD 19/10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Four handicapping tips for betting NCAAB conference tournaments
By DOC'S SPORTS

The best betting appetizers to the annual feast known as the NCAA tournament are the various conference tournaments that take place over this week.

These serve as a warmup for the top teams in country, as they jockey for better seeding in the Big Dance. However, for a good number of teams, the conference tournaments represent one final chance to earn a place in the 68-team field by snagging an automatic bid that comes with winning it all.

Many of the traditional handicapping practices still apply. However, given the sudden-death nature of this format, there are a few additional betting tips to take into consideration when wagering on conference tournament action:

Good programs vs. Bad teams

By now we have a clear picture of every team in the nation and it becomes painfully obvious which ones are good and which one are bad.

While there are exceptions to every rule, don’t start thinking that teams such as Florida at 15-16 (10-19-1 ATS) or Michigan at 15-15 (12-16 ATS) are going to suddenly find their groove and go on a run.

Try and stay away from higher-profile schools that have good programs but are strapped with a bad team this year.

Season series

A few of the conference tournament matchups will mark the third time that two teams have faced each other this year.

Do your homework and try an uncover situations where a talented team has already lost twice to the team they are facing in the next round. Many times, you will find a couple key factors that contributed to the regular season sweep.

A good example would be if Butler meets Georgetown in the semifinals of the Big East tournament. The Hoyas won both encounters with the Bulldogs this season by a combined eight points. Georgetown is the No. 2 seed in the tournament but beating Butler a third time – especially with the Bulldogs playing so well right now – may be asking too much.

Ride the trends

While teams will be judged on their entire body of work when it comes to earning a spot in the NCAA tournament, it’s the programs that are hot ATS right now that you want to ride into their conference tournament.

The Davidson Wildcats rolled into the postseason on a nine-game SU and ATS streak in the Atlantic 10, grabbing the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. They get a double-bye and play the winner of La Salle vs. UMass - winning and covering in each of the meetings with those two programs in the regular season.

The Maryland Terrapins have won seven in a row and have covered in five of those contests, including a victory over Wisconsin as a 6-point home underdog.

Great players vs. Good teams

Every March there seems to be an example of what a great, pro-caliber player can mean to his team.

Connecticut rode Kemba Walker all the way to a national title in 2011 and along the way made some serious money for anyone who went along for the ride, with a 9-1 ATS record in Big East and NCAA Tournament play.

Anthony Davis was the backbone of Kentucky’s title run the following year, leading the Wildcats to a 4-1 ATS run in the final five rounds of the tournament before becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft.

Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, Texas' Myles Turner, and Arkansas' Bobby Portis all find their names high on the NBA mock draft boards.

Teams with a great individual superstar tend to trump good teams with no true standouts. These prime-time-players all have dreams of being the next Kemba Walker and leading their team to a national title. But, they also realize they are auditioning for the NBA and the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, which can be an even bigger source of motivation.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's ACC Tips
By Kevin Rogers

(9) Florida State vs. (8) Clemson – 12:00 PM EST

Both these squads put together 8-10 records in ACC play as the road team captured each matchup. FSU held off Clemson at Littlejohn Coliseum in mid-January as 4 ½-point underdogs, 59-55, while the Tigers avenged that defeat by knocking off the Seminoles in Tallahassee two weeks late, 62-55 as 2 ½-point ‘dogs. Clemson struggled down the stretch, losing six of its final eight games following that seven-point victory at FSU on February 4, while scoring 61 points or less in five of those defeats.

The Seminoles capped the regular season with a 61-52 triumph over Pittsburgh, snapping a three-game skid. FSU is one of the hottest ATS teams in the country by covering 11 of its past 13 contests, including an 8-1 ATS mark as an underdog. The ‘Noles have won three straight ACC tournament opening games, as FSU edged Clemson, 73-69 in the quarterfinals of the 2013 tournament. The Tigers have dropped three of their past four ACC tournament contests with the lone win coming in overtime against Georgia Tech last March.

(12) Boston College vs. (5) North Carolina – 2:30 PM EST

Past Duke, the second-hottest team in the ACC entering the conference tournament is Boston College, who won its fourth straight game in Tuesday’s 66-65 triumph over Georgia Tech in the first round. The Eagles erased a six-point deficit in the final two minutes, but failed to cover as 2 ½-point favorites to snap a 4-0 ATS run. BC has lost six straight meetings with North Carolina, including a 79-68 defeat in Chestnut Hill as 9 ½-point underdogs on February 7.

The Tar Heels will be without forward Kennedy Meeks (12 ppg) on Wednesday, who will miss the game with a fever. UNC won six of nine conference games this season away from Chapel Hill, while basically playing a home contest in nearby Greensboro. The Heels began conference play at 2-7-1 ATS, but has cashed in five of the past eight games. Roy Williams’ squad has eclipsed the ‘over’ in five straight ACC tournament games since the 2012 conference championship, while hitting the ‘over’ in six of the last nine contests overall.

(10) Pittsburgh vs. (7) N.C. State – 7:00 PM EST

Two teams going in different directions tip off the night action in Greensboro as Pittsburgh looks to snap a three-game skid. The Panthers have lost three in a row twice in conference play, coming off defeats recently to Wake Forest, Miami, and Florida State. Pitt put together a dreadful 5-12-1 ATS record in ACC play, which includes a 68-50 setback in Raleigh to tip off league action as three-point underdogs on January 3. The Panthers shot just 32% from the floor in that loss, as Jamie Dixon’s team dropped seven of nine road games in the conference.

The Wolfpack has won five of its past six games to help creep closer to an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament. Three victories in this stretch for N.C. State have come on the road, including impressive efforts at Clemson, North Carolina, and Louisville. Mark Gottfried’s squad has cashed in six of the last seven contests, including a 3-1 ATS record as a favorite in this span. N.C. State has been a strong play in the ACC tournament the last three seasons, putting together a 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS record.

(14) Virginia Tech vs. (6) Miami, FL – 9:30 PM EST

The Hokies survived Wake Forest in Tuesday’s first round with an 81-80 triumph to cash as 4 ½-point underdogs and advance to the quarterfinals. It took 19 conference games, but the 81 points put up on Tuesday was the most scored by Buzz Williams’ club in regulation against an ACC foe this season (Hokies scored 86 in overtime loss to Duke). Now, Virginia Tech will attempt to win back-to-back games for the first time since December, while trying to avenge an 82-61 home loss to Miami last Saturday in which the Hurricanes drilled 15 three-pointers and led 46-18 at halftime.

Miami blew out Virginia Tech twice this season, including a 76-52 rout in Coral Gables last month as 12-point favorites. The Hurricanes have gone through many ups and downs this season, but UM is firmly on the bubble and can use a few wins this week to get over the hump and back into the Big Dance. The ‘Canes have won five of their last seven games, while hoping to get guard Angel Rodriguez back in the lineup after missing time with a wrist injury. Miami struggled as a favorite away from Coral Gables this season by posting a 2-5 ATS record when laying points on the highway.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's Pac-12 Tips
By Kevin Rogers

(9) Washington State vs. (8) California – 3:00 PM EST

The Cougars and Golden Bears split a pair of matchups this season with the road team winning each time. Washington State stunned California in Berkeley as 9 ½-point underdogs in early January, 69-66 to pick up their first Pac-12 win. The Bears started conference play at 1-6, but began a five-game winning streak with a 76-67 triumph in Pullman as 2 ½-point ‘dogs on January 29. In that victory, Cal shot nearly 51% from the floor and limited to Washington State to 33% shooting from the field.

The Golden Bears have stumbled of late by dropping five of their past six games, with the lone victory coming against Oregon State at home, 73-56 earlier this month. Cuonzo Martin’s club cashed just once in six opportunities as a favorite in Pac-12 action, but has covered five of their past seven games away from Berkeley. Washington State closed conference play with an overtime victory over Colorado last Saturday, only the fourth win in the past 14 games for the Cougars. The positive for Ernie Kent’s team heading into the first round of this tournament is WSU’s 4-0 ATS record the last four contests.

(12) USC vs. (5) Arizona State – 5:30 PM EST

Andy Enfield is a long way from Dunk City as his USC squad finished last in the Pac-12 for the second straight season with a 3-15 conference record. The Trojans hung with Colorado in the opening round of last March’s Pac-12 tournament in a 59-56 defeat as 8 ½-point underdogs. Now, USC battles an Arizona State club that has won five of its past seven games to forge above .500 and lock up a postseason berth likely in the NIT.

The Sun Devils held off the Trojans in their only meeting this season in Tempe, 64-59 on February 22, but USC cashed as 12-point underdogs. ASU struggled to cover numbers as a favorite down the stretch, posting a 2-5 ATS record when laying points since late January. USC wasn’t a bad team to back in spite of them placing 12th in the conference as the Trojans covered six of their final nine contests, including a 6-1 ATS record as a road underdog since January 22.

(10) Colorado vs. (7) Oregon State – 9:00 PM EST

The Beavers showed some promise in a rebuilding season by starting 9-3 overall and 5-2 in Pac-12 play. Oregon State stumbled down the stretch by losing six of its final seven contests, but the lone win came against Colorado in convincing fashion at home, 72-58 on February 21. The Beavers blitzed the Buffaloes for a 27-9 lead in the first half and never looked back, but that’s the only ATS win OSU has picked up in the last seven trips to the court.

Colorado wasn’t a sound team away from Boulder, winning just three of 14 times, as two of those victories came against the bottom two teams in the conference (Washington and USC). The Buffaloes began league play with back-to-back home wins over UCLA and USC, but Tad Boyle’s squad stumbled to a 5-11 finish in the Pac-12, while covering three of their final 10 games. Since joining the conference in 2011-12, the Buffaloes have posted an impressive 7-2 SU and 4-4-1 ATS record in the Pac-12 tournament.

(11) Washington vs. (6) Stanford – 11:30 PM EST

The Cardinal seemed in good shape for an at-large tournament berth with an 18-9 record to close out February, but Stanford has lost three straight games to jeopardize a chance at the Big Dance. Johnny Dawkins’ club closed the campaign with a 91-69 blowout loss to regular-season champion Arizona, as the Cardinal has dropped seven of 10 since knocking off Washington, 84-74 as two-point road favorites on January 28. Stanford pulled off the season sweep of Washington, which included a 68-60 home triumph in early January as the Cardinal needed overtime to cash as six-point favorites.

The Huskies suffered through a 5-13 campaign in Pac-12 play thanks to injuries and the removal of big man Robert Upshaw from the team in late January. Upshaw was nearly a double-double machine, while leading the nation in blocks with 79 prior to his dismissal by head coach Lorenzo Romar. Since starting 3-3 in the conference, UW slipped to 2-10 in the last 12 contests, but its signature victory came in the regular season finale against Utah as 13-point home underdogs, 77-68 for only their second cover in the last eight games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's Pac-12 Action

WASHINGTON HUSKIES (16-14) vs. STANFORD CARDINAL (18-12)

MGM Grand Arena – Las Vegas, NV
Pac-12 Tournament - First Round
Tip-off: Wednesday, 11:30 p.m. ET
Line and Total: Stanford -8

Pac-12 tournament No. 6 seeded Stanford looks for a third win this season over No. 11 seeded Washington, with the winner moving on to play Utah in the quarterfinals.

Stanford and Washington both come into this game not playing their best basketball, as the Cardinal have lost seven of their past 10 games, while the Huskies have only won two of their past 12 contests. That said, undermanned Washington is fresh off a season-capping upset over the second best team in the Pac-12 (No. 13 Utah), and looks to take that momentum into Las Vegas and prevent a third loss this season at the hands of the Cardinal.

Stanford won the first matchup between these two schools, 68-60 in overtime, on Jan. 4 and then went on the road to beat the Huskies in Seattle, 84-74 on Jan. 28. The Cardinal covered in both contests.

The Cardinal’s home win was versus a Washington team which still boasted soon-to-be-suspended C Robert Upshaw, who led the Pac-12 in blocks. Stanford G Chasson Randle (19.1 PPG, 3.1 APG) scored 24 points and 20 points respectively in both wins over the Huskies. As mentioned earlier, those Huskies busted out for a shocking win over Utah, shredding one of the better defenses in the nation for 51% from the field and 57% (8-for-14) shooting from three.

The Huskies were led by G Nigel Williams-Goss (15.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 5.9 APG), who – while hampered by an ankle injury - gutted out a remarkable 28-point performance to lead the Huskies over the Utes. Stanford on the other hand is in the midst of a three game losing streak, capped by a 91-69 spanking at the hands of the Pac-12’s best team, Arizona. Washington is 2-6 SU (2-6 ATS) in its past eight games, but they are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) on neutral courts this season.

Stanford is also 2-6 SU (2-6 ATS) in its past eight and 0-3 ATS in its last three games. The Cardinal is 1-1 SU (1-1 ATS) on neutral courts this season. The total has gone Under in seven of Stanford’s past nine games. Historically, Washington is 6-4 SU (5-5 ATS) in its past 10 games in this series. The last time these two teams played in the Pac-12 tournament, Washington rolled to a 79-64 victory in March of 2010 in Staples Center.

Two key frontcourt pieces are questionable for this game, as F Michael Humphrey (3.3 PPG; 7.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG in past four games) has an ankle issue for Stanford and missed the Cardinal’s last contest, while F Shawn Kemp Jr. (9.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG) has missed four straight games with first a concussion and now calf issues.

Washington comes into the conference tournament with nothing to lose after the huge Utah win. Once upon a time the Huskies were a top-25 team with a dominant defense and depth.

Losing embattled C Robert Upshaw (10.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 4.5 BPG) to suspension and along with injuries at one time or another to F Jernard Jarreau (5.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG), F Donaven Dorsey (4.0 PPG), G Darin Johnson (4.4 PPG), who missed the Utah win, and key players Kemp and Williams-Goss have taken a promising season and turned it into a nightmare for Head Coach Lorenzo Romar.

Due to the Huskies lack of size, they’ve been forced to play little-used C Gilles Dierickx (0.9 PPG) 30+ minutes per game in their past two contests. Romar has often used 6-foot-4 G Mike Anderson (8.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.4 APG) as his power forward out of necessity. If and when the Huskies stay competitive, it’s on the shoulders of Anderson, Williams-Goss and their running mate, G Andrew Andrews (14.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.2 3PT/game) who has finished the season with a remarkable flurry of offense.

Andrews is averaging 21.6 points per game over his past five contests and is pouring in four threes per game over that span. Andrews has also scored double-figures in 17 of the past 18 games for the Huskies. No matter how hot Andrews, Williams-Goss and company come out versus Stanford, they’re going to have to offer some resistance on the defensive side of the ball.

The Huskies without Upshaw are just an awful defensive unit, allowing 77.4 points per game in the 11 games since he was suspended (season-long PPG allowed is 67.2, 162nd in NCAA). The Huskies also have a 47.8% FG defense in conference play, good for 338th in the nation.

Stanford comes into this game demoralized, but playing the Huskies should cure their slumping offense lately. Overall, Stanford can score with most teams in the country, and they’ve been consistently scoring 72.9 points per-game in conference (equal to their season average) good for 52nd in the country. It’s not about how many points the Cardinal will rack up against Washington, it’s whether they can stop the Huskies guard-oriented offense and advance comfortably to face Utah.

Granted, Arizona is a head-and-shoulders above Washington, but the Cardinal allowed the Wildcats to pour on 91 points (with 20 team assists) while allowing a troika of Arizona reserve guards to go 6-for-10 from three point range. Washington’s starting guards are better than Arizona’s reserve guards, so this is something to watch.

Speaking of guards, Stanford has a duo that can match just about anyone in the nation in G Anthony Brown (15.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 2.7 APG) and the aforementioned Randle. Both seniors, you can bet that they won’t let their college careers wind down without a strong effort in their last Pac-12 tournament. Brown has been struggling a bit with his scoring recently, only hitting his 15.0 point average once in the past six games. Look for him to bounce back against the smaller Husky guards.

Stanford is anchored up front by another senior, C Stefan Nastic (13.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG). Like former Stanford alumni Brook Lopez, a man as big as Nastic could afford to hit the glass a bit harder, but overall it’s hard to complain about the breakout year that Nastic has enjoyed. A key for Stanford will be keeping Nastic out of foul trouble, as you can be sure that Washington’s plan will be to send Williams-Goss, Andrews and Anderson to attack the paint. While Stanford is big, it doesn’t offer much in terms of rim protection (2.8 BPG, 248th in NCAA).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bracketology Update
By Bruce Marshall

We're at the end of the road with our the Bracketology updates, as the NCAA Tourney field will fill itself out from this point forward. Entering conference tourney week, however, is always a good time to take one last look at where the teams stand.

By now, the identity of those teams on the "bubble" is well known, and the potential at-large entries are no longer a mystery. Though the composition of those could still be altered somewhat by upset results in upcoming conference tourney action.

For our last update, we include, as usual, not only each team's straight-up record, but also its "RPI" (Ratings Percentage index) and "SOS" (Strength of Schedule) numbers. All SU records, RPI and SOS are thru March 9.

Note that for all of our "Bracketology" updates, the term "protected seed" refers to seeds 1 thru 4 in each region, and usual favorable geographic placement in the sub-regional round.

As usual, we break down the projected matchups by each region, beginning with the sub-regionals, which this season will begin on Thursday, March 19, with the Dayton "First Four" games played on March 17 and 18. March Madness...it's here!

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse)

At Pittsburgh...

1 Villanova (SUR 29-2, RPI-3, SOS-31) vs. 16 Albany (23-8, 105-282)...Nova recently moved up to the top line after Gonzaga's loss to BYU, and we suspect Jay Wright's Wildcats stay as a number one seed if they win the Big East Tourney. Regular-season and tourney wins in the Big East and a top four ranking have historically equated to a top seed in the East Region. The home team of Strat-o-Matic, Long Island-based Stony Brook, and the defending league tourney champ and this term's regular-season champ, the Albany Great Danes, meet on Saturday in Albany to determine the America East rep.

8 Ohio State (22-9, 33-81) vs. 9 NC State (19-12, 48-5)...We have had OSU safely into the field for more than a month but have never been able to justify the Buckeyes as anything better than a 7 seed, and Sunday's limp submission to Wisconsin is another indicator why. Eight seems about right for OSU. NC State is now near the top of every coach's "I don't want to face them" list after a blistering recent few weeks that included convincing road wins at Louisville and North Carolina, plus an earlier win over Duke. The Wolfpack avoided banana peels at Clemson and at home vs. Syracuse this past week to safely move clear of the bubble entering the ACC Tourney in Greensboro.

At Columbus...

4 Oklahoma (21-9, 17-11) vs. 13 Northeastern (23-11, 93-186)...The Big 12 is going to be given a rather wide berth by the Selection Committee, and several league reps are going to get rewarded with protected seeds. Barring an early slip this week in the Big 12 Tourney at Kansas City, Lon Kruger's Oklahoma figures as one of those teams. We found out Monday night that William & Mary's forever Big Dance drought would continue as Northeastern won the CAA Tourney finale in Baltimore. That leaves the Tribe with Army, Northwestern, The Citadel, and perhaps St. Francis-NY (the Terriers are playing Robert Morris in the Northeast Tourney title game later this week) as the only teams to miss every Big Dance since its inception in 1939..

5 SMU (24-6, 19-56) vs. 12 Xavier (19-12, 41-13)/Texas A&M (20-10, 46-73)...No sweating on Selection Sunday this march for SMU, unlike last year now far on the safe side of the bubble. Larry Brown's team might think it could rise as far as the fourth line if it can win the American Tourney this week in Hartford (where we would keep an eye on a bubble-buster deluxe, host UConn). The at-large play-in projections represent the absolute edge of the cut line. Xavier is still in the middle of the bubble mess, but kept itself alive by narrowly escaping at Creighton on Saturday. SOS numbers also should work in the Musketeers' favor. Texas A&M is now in severe bubble trouble after Saturday's 1-point home loss to Alabama, but unlike ESPN's "St. Joe's" Lunardi we still have the Ags just above Indiana and a few others at the cut line. A&M could use a couple of wins at the SEC Tourney to keep its hopes alive into Selection Sunday.

At Charlotte...

2 Virginia (28-2, 4-25) vs. 15 Manhattan (19-13, 128-254)...Some explaining is in order on our part, and why we have bumped Virginia off of the top line. Presently, we consider the Cavs and Duke interchangeable, but by virtue of the Cavs' loss at Louisville on Saturday, we think one of the two will stay on the top line, because either Virginia or the Blue Devils is going to lose at the ACC Tourney in Greensboro. This scenario requires Wisconsin to win the Big Ten Tourney and thus move to the top line, but that is what we project. The Metro-determined its champ in Albany (where two Big Dance participants will have their tickets punched this week, including in the America East Tourney!) on Monday night, where the Manhattan Jaspers avenged a pair of regular-season losses to Iona and make a return trip to the Dance for HC Steve Masiello.

7 Georgia (20-10, 37-27) vs. 10 VCU (22-9, 18-7)...What we would really like to see is Georgia getting another shot at Kentucky after the Bulldogs came close for the second time against the Cats last week at Athens. Maybe at the SEC Tourney this week? Whatever, Mark Fox's team should be free of bubble pressure this week in Nashville. VCU's recent three-game skid has dropped it to the fifth seed in this week's A-10 Tourney at Brooklyn. Are the Rams really safe? "St. Joe's" Lunardi seems to think so, and so do we, based now mostly upon computer numbers. Without injured sparkplug Briante Weber, it is obvious that VCU is not the same team it was with Weber earlier in the season. "Shaka Ball" has dropped into double-digit seed territory, though it could probably move back up to the 7-8 range if it can win in Brooklyn this week.

At Omaha...

3 Northern Iowa (30-3, 15-105) vs. 14 Yale (22-9, 57-133)...We have long been saying that either UNI or Wichita State would be a protected seed if either won Arch Madness in St. Louis, so we simply honor that commitment by seeding the Panthers on the three line. Bubble teams everywhere are thanking UNI for keeping Illinois State out of the Dance with the Panthers' Sunday win in St. Louis that would otherwise have shrunk the bubble by one team. By now, you probably saw or read how Yale blew a chance to win the Ivy outright for the first time since 1962 when allowing Dartmouth's Gabas Maldunas to score the game winner in the last second on Saturday. Despite beating Harvard last Friday, the Eli are now forced into a one-game playoff with Tommy Amaker's team, to take place on Saturday at the Palestra in Philadelphia, to determine the Ivy rep.

6 Providence (20-10, 21-10) vs. 11 Oklahoma State (18-12, 42-16)...Despite Saturday's home loss to Butler (a team the Friars beat earlier in the season at Hinkle Fieldhouse), Ed Cooley's Providence has nothing to worry about on Selection Sunday. That might not be the case for Oklahoma State, which has been skidding over the past month, losing five of its past six. The Cowboys are going to be able to breathe a lot easier if they can beat Oklahoma in the 6 vs. 3 game on Thursday in the Big 12 Tourney quarterfinals at Kansas City. Otherwise, the Cowboys could be headed to one of the at-large play-in games or be in danger of missing the field entirely if results elsewhere fall the wrong way.

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston)

At Charlotte...

1 Duke (28-3, 6-19) vs. 16 St. Francis NY (23-10, 161-313)/Texas Southern (19-12, 138-295)...Refer to our earlier commentary regarding Virginia and how we view the top of the ACC heading into tourney week. With Cav G Justin Anderson now dealing with recovery from an appendectomy and his status very iffy for this week, we suspect Duke is more likely to win the conference tourney in Greensboro and secure a top regional seed. As also mentioned earlier, St. Francis (NY) tries to make the Dance for the first time in its history when hosting the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport, Robert Morris, in the Northeast Final on Tuesday night, to take place at the Terriers' tiny gym in Brooklyn. Mike Davis' Texas Southern looks like the team to beat in the SWAC Tourney this week in the Houston Rockets' swanky Toyota Center, but as usual the winner of that event is a prime contender for a 16 vs. 16 play-in assignment. Remember, the Tigers did beat Michigan State and Kansas State on the road in pre-league play.

8 Oregon (23-8, 30-62) vs. 9 LSU (22-9, 55-83)...Oregon didn't even merit mention anywhere in our Bracketology updates until mid-February, by which point it had commenced a late-season surge that resulted in a number three seed for this week's Pac-12 Tourney at the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas. The Ducks are safely in and so, too, we believe, is LSU after its dramatic win at Arkansas on Saturday, giving the Tigers several good SEC road victories. Coupled with a success at West Virginia in December, we think the Tigers are safe, no matter what the computer numbers say.

At Pittsburgh...

4 Iowa State (22-8, 14-8) vs. 13 Central Michigan (22-7, 74-203)...Thanks to last Monday's whirlwind comeback win at Oklahoma, ISU should feel good about its protected-seed status, though we have moved the Cyclones away from their preferred Omaha sub-regional, with Northern Iowa and Kansas getting first dibs at the CenturyLink Center. The MAC Tourney begins with first-round action at campus sites on Monday before moving to "The Q" in Cleveland later in the week. At least a half dozen teams appear to have a real shot, with Central Michigan and Buffalo the respective winners of each half of the loop. Kent State, Bowling Green, Toledo, and Western Michigan also have support among MAC aficionados.

5 Wichita State (28-4, 11-94) vs. 12 Wofford (28-6, 49-170)...Wichita still might have a shot at a place on the four line, but we thought if the Shockers or Northern Iowa were going to stay as protected seeds if they didn't win at Arch Madness, they'd at least have to lose in the final to do so. Which Wichita didn't do, hence our drop of the Shockers to the five line. Meanwhile, Wofford barely survived the SoCon finale on Monday night vs. longshot Furman (the last-place finisher in the league!) to win its second straight SoCon title and back-to-back Big Dance trips under vet HC Mike Young and star G Karl Cochran.

At Seattle...

2 Gonzaga (30-2, 8-76) vs. 15 NC Central (21-6, 106-336)...Gonzaga's chance to stay on the top line was probably erased when it lost on Feb. 28 at home vs. BYU. The Zags, who have looked tight the past month, will still stay nearby in the sub-regional round (likely in Seattle), but are probably going to be sent out of the West Regional if Arizona wins the Pac-12 Tourney this week in Las Vegas, keeping the Cats the L.A. Regional. Looking for back-to-back Big Dance visits are HC LeVelle Moton's NC Central Eagles, who should be safely clear of the 16 vs. 16 play-in game as long as they maintain current form and don't get KO'd in this week's MEAC Tourney at the Norfolk Scope, once upon a time one of the regional homes for the ABA Virginia Squires during Dr. J's earliest days as a pro hoopster.

7 Georgetown (20-9, 21-4) vs. 10 Temple (22-9, 35-71)...Once upon a time this would have been a matchup of old coaching friends John Thompson and John Chaney, who did meet up once upon a time in the Dance. This year, it would be another good sidelines chess match between JT III and Fran Dunphy. The Hoyas might ascend higher than a seven on Selection Sunday, though we think the Owls probably stay in the 10-11 range. Temple steadied over its last three games of the regular season, and we think the Owls are pretty safe after last Saturday's win over UConn.

At Jacksonville...

3 Maryland (26-5, 10-41) vs. 14 Belmont (22-10, 106-205)...For a good while now, Maryland has seemed to be the only Big Ten team other than Wisconsin that appeared capable of landing a protected seed. The Terps, who set a school regular-season, pre-tourney win record with 26 this season, look a good bet for the three line. Belmont has already provided some of the best thrills of March with its pulsating 88-87 win over favored Murray State in last Saturday's rousing OVC Tourney final in Nashville, courtesy Virginia transfer G Taylor Barnette's off-balance, game-winning three-pointer with 3.2 seconds to play. Big Dance regular HC Rick Byrd has now taken the Bruins to the Dance twice in the three years since the move to the OVC.

6 West Virginia (23-8, 23-32) vs. 11 Boise State (34-7, 36-111)...Bob Huggins' WVU was in serious contention for a protected seed until the past week, when a couple of late losses vs. Baylor and Kansas in the Big 12 race pushed the Mountaineers down into the 5-6 range. Still, it's nice to see the colorful "Huggy" back in the Dance. The Mountain West did not look like a three-bid league a few weeks ago, but stretch-running Boise State has continued to win and secured the top seed in the MW Tourney at Las Vegas. The Broncos look safe heading into tourney week.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Cleveland)

At Louisville...

1 Kentucky (28-0, 1-31) vs. 16 North Florida (23-11, 174-325)/Lafayette (19-12, 143-185)...Kentucky fans have been making their sub-regional reservations in Louisville since last summer, and that assignment to the KFC Yum! Center remains the surest thing on Selection Sunday. Now, will the 31-0 Cats lose before they get to the Dance? Some believe the best chance for that to happen comes this week at the SEC Tourney (remember, the Anthony Davis-led title team of 2012 lost in the conference tourney to Vanderbilt). The Patriot champ has been involved in past play-in games, and this season's conference tourney has been turned inside out with old Villanova G Fran O'Hanlon's Lafayette, the four seed in the league tourney, hosting six seed American in Larry Holmes' hometown of Easton, PA on Wednesday. The winner almost surely heads to Dayton for "First Four" action. As likely does North Florida after winning the Atlantic-Sun title over USC-Upstate on Sunday. This is the Ospreys' first-ever Big Dance trip.

8 Dayton (23-7, 23-112) vs. 9 Colorado State (26-5, 27-121)...The A-10 could still have some bubble movement in the conference tourney at Brooklyn with five teams still holding on to at-large hopes. Archie Miller's 6-6-and-under Dayton, however, appears to be one of the safe ones (along with Davidson and VCU) after finishing second in the regular season race. We have listened to some pundits try to talk Colorado State out of a place in the field, but a solid RPI and 26 regular-season wins ought to be good enough to get Larry Eustachy back to the Dance, even if this has been a bit of a down year in the Mountain West.

At Portland....

4 Utah (23-7, 12-40) vs. 13 Georgia State (22-9, 73-177)...Utah's status as a protected seed could come under some review if the Utes get bounced quickly at the Pac-12 Tourney in Las Vegas this week. Previous league road losses at Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon were a bit understandable, but last Saturday's setback at struggling Washington qualifies as a bad defeat at this stage of the season. Utah likely gets dinged by the Selection Committee, but how much remains to be seen. After Saturday's comfy 72-55 win at Georgia Southern, Ron Hunter's Georgia State will enter this week's Sun Belt Tourney at U of New Orleans' Lakefront Arena as the top seed and favorite.

5 Louisville (24-7, 22-26) vs. 12 Stephen F. Austin (27-4, 52-225)...The 'Ville hopes its late-season struggles and distractions of G Chris Jones' dismissal from the squad are all behind it now after last Saturday's dramatic win over Virginia. Still, enough damage was done in recent weeks to drop the Cards out of protected seed territory, though Rick Pitino will recall how his team began a Final Four run three years ago in the sub-regional at the same Moda Center venue in Portland. No one will want to draw SFA, especially after the Lumberjacks beat VCU in the San Diego sub-regional last season, and with several familiar faces (including HC Brad Underwood) back from a year ago. But SFA wants to get back to the Dance it is probably going to have to beat stubborn Sam Houston for a third time this season when the Southland Tourney commences in the Houston suburb of Katy later this week. Note that the Jacks beat the Bearkats by nine last Saturday in Nacogdoches.

At Omaha...

2 Kansas (24-7, 2-1) vs. 15 Coastal Carolina (21-8, 137-268)...Kansas hangs on the two line by a thread after suffering yet another loss on Saturday, this one at Oklahoma. But by virtue of winning the reg.-season crown in the acknowledged toughest league in the country, and with sparkling computer numbers, the Jayhawks can probably stick on the two line as long as they don't get bounced early in this week's Big 12 Tourney at Kansas City. Cliff Ellis' Coastal Carolina returns to the Dance for a second straight year after winning the Big South title on Sunday vs. Winthrop. The Chanticleers could get seeded at 16 or be forced into one of the Dayton play-in games. But remember how they scared East Regional top seed Virginia in the sub-regional a year ago, one of the closer 16 vs. 1 results since the tourney expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

7 Michigan State (21-10, 29-20) vs. 10 Ole Miss (20-11, 44-43)...This might not be a vintage Tom Izzo-coached MSU team, without much scoring on the blocks and now dealing with another injury to slashing wing Branden Dawson. But the Spartans have gutted their way to an important double-bye in the Big Ten Tourney, with the move of Travis Trice to sixth man paying dividends. And we have learned to never underestimate Izzo in March. We're not sure what to think of Ole Miss after the Rebs started to slide in the past couple of weeks. Andy Kennedy's team is getting close to bubble trouble after Saturday's home loss to Vanderbilt, and to be safe would be advised to avoid an early exit at this Week's SEC Tourney to prevent any unnecessary angst on Selection Sunday.

At Seattle...

3 Notre Dame (26-5, 25-93) vs. 14 South Dakota State (22-9, 100-248)...Perhaps the best Notre Dame team of the Mike Brey era looks a good bet for a protected seed, perhaps as high as the three line, where we have often projected the Fighting Irish over the past two months. We cannot recommend highly enough the super-charged proceedings at the Summit League Tourney, which continues this week in the frenzied noise chamber of the new, 13,000-seat Denny Sanford PREMIER Center in Sioux Falls, where top seed South Dakota State and second seed and rival North Dakota State appear destined for a collision in the finale on Tuesday night.

6 Butler (22-9, 26-28) vs. 11 La Tech (54-188)...One of the best storylines of the season has been authored at Butler, where HC Chris Holtmann had the interim tag removed in January and has continued to whip the Bulldogs down the stretch to a surprise second-place (tie) finish in the big East. We're sure we were not the only one who didn't project Butler as a tourney team this season. Conference USA looks again to be a one-bid league and will determine its Big Dance rep in this week's tourney at Birmingham, where Michael White's La Tech enters as the top seed and slight favorite. Keep an eye on hometown UAB, which has overachieved for HC Jerod Haase this season.

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles)

at Columbus...

1 Wisconsin (28-3, 5-15) vs. 16 Montana (18-11, 149-212)...As mentioned in our earlier analysis for Duke and Virginia, we believe Wisconsin ascends to the top line if it can win the Big Ten Tourney in Chicago this week (where the Badgers will be the favorite). With either the Blue Devils or Cavs guaranteed to lose in the ACC Tourney, the door could open for Bo Ryan to slide onto the top line. Meanwhile, Montana's prize for being the top seed in the Big Sky Tourney is to host the event, beginning Thursday in Missoula. Quite a job done with the Griz by first-year HC Travis DeCuire, as Montana was picked in the middle of the league pack entering the season. Several others, including Eastern Washington, Sac State, and Northern Arizona should be watched closely in Missoula.

8 Cincinnati (22-9, 39-65) vs. 9 St. John's (21-10, 34-36)...Cincy might have been on the wrong side of the cut line a couple of weeks ago, but five straight wins to close the regular season and acceptable computer numbers have probably moved the Bearcats off of the bubble as they approach this week's American Tourney in Hartford. Steve Lavin's St. John's also appeared in trouble about a month ago but steadied itself down the stretch and had built up enough space between itself and the cut line to not be harmed too much by Saturday's blowout loss at Villanova.

At Jacksonville...

4 Arkansas (24-7, 16-63) vs. 13 Valparaiso (27-5, 70-257)...Mike Anderson's Arkansas has left itself vulnerable to a drop out of protected seed territory after Saturday's home loss to LSU. It now looks like a 4 or 5-seed for the Razorbacks, who also don't have a sub-regional that is conveniently located this March, either. A few Valpo fans might think the Crusaders have a longshot at-large chance if they should lose the Horizon finale Tuesday night on their home court vs. Green Bay, but we highly doubt HC Bryce Drew shares those sentiments.

5 North Carolina (21-10, 13-2) vs. 12 BYU (24-8, 40-78)/Texas (19-12, 43-9)...North Carolina has sure lost a lot of close games this season, but the Tar Heels' computer numbers are so good that Roy Williams might be able to pull a protected seed out of the hat if the Chapel Hill bunch can steal this week's ACC Tourney at Greensboro. Meanwhile, as long as BYU can reach the final of the WCC Tourney on Tuesday, it ought to fall just on the safe side, thanks to its recent win at Gonzaga. Remember to slot the Cougars in Thursday/Saturday regionals (as will be the Jacksonville sub-regional, and West Regional in L.A.), as its LDS connection prevents any games on Sunday. Texas gave itself new Big Dance life with recent do-or-die wins over Baylor and Kansas State, but the Horns are still going to have some work to do at the Big 12 Tourney to make the cut.

At Portland...

2 Arizona (28-3, 7-37) vs. 15 New Mexico State (23-8, 93-233)...Is it too late for Arizona to make a run at a number one seed? Maybe not, as results elsewhere and a win for the Cats at this week's Pac-12 Tourney in Las Vegas make that a possibility. But more importantly for the Cats is a sub-regional assignment in Pac-12 territory (where Portland or Seattle would suffice) and placement in the West Regional in Los Angeles. As long as those things happen, Sean Miller won't care about a one or two seed. New Mexico State enters this week's WAC Tourney as the prohibitive favorite and only chance for that league to miss one of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games. This would be a fourth straight Big Dance trip for HC Marvin Menzies and the Aggies, who will be counted upon to bring some fans to what otherwise is a very lonely event at the Orleans Hotel Arena in Las Vegas.

7 Iowa (21-10, 38-29) vs. 10 Davidson (23-6, 32-106)...This matchup would feature quite a coaching chess match between Iowa's Fran McCaffery and Davidson's Bob "Leslie Nielsen" McKillop. The Hawkeyes have only recently moved safely away from the cut line. And note the many road wins posted by McCaffery's team this season. As for the Wildcats, their easy transition to the A-10 proved one of the better storylines of the season and should earn McKillop some Coach of the Year votes. Davidson enters this week's A-10 Tourney in Brooklyn as the regular-season champ and top seed, suggesting it has done enough work to move clear of the bubble.

At Louisville....

3 Baylor (23-8, 9-3) vs. 14 UC Davis (24-5, 71-289)...One of many highly-regarded Big 12 entries, Baylor looks a very good bet for a protected seed and might have a chance to move up to the two line with a big run in the conference tourney at Kansas City. Kimberly Guilfoyle's alma mater UC Davis has never made the Big Dance, though it has won lower-division titles under current UCSB HC Bob Williams. Jim Les' Aggies have emerged as the favorite in the upcoming Big West Tourney at Anaheim thanks to an upperclassmen-dominated lineup and high-scoring G Corey Hawkins (Hersey's son; 20.8 ppg), back from recent injury.

6 San Diego State (21-10, 24-77) vs. 11 Purdue (20-11, 61-66)...Good news in recent weeks for Steve Fisher's SDSU, which has welcomed back versatile 6-7 swingman Dwayne Polee II to active duty after a heart scare. Though the Aztecs still lack the offensive bite of some of their recent versions, solid defense makes SDSU a "tough out," as usual. Football pads might be needed for a matchup vs. rugged Purdue, which needed Saturday's win over Illinois to stop a bit of late-season-bleeding after tough losses at Ohio State and Michigan State. But the Boilermaker trendlines have been good since late January in a surprising surge that has removed the heat from once under-fire HC Matt Painter.

Last four byes: Purdue, Temple, Oklahoma State, Boise State

Last four in: BYU, Xavier, Texas, Texas A&M

First four out: Miami-Fla., Indiana, Tulsa, UCLA

Next four out: Murray State, Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, Rhode Island

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'ACC Second Round'

The 2015 ACC Tournament continues Wednesday with Clemson and Florida State vying for a shot at top seed Virginia in Thursday's Quarter Finals. Tigers limped into postseason with losses in four of its last five games ending 16-14 overall (13-13 ATS) with an 8-10 ledger in conference play (9-9 ATS). The Seminoles enter postseason on a positive note having snapped a three game losing streak defeating Pittsburgh in the season finale giving Noles a 16-15 record on the year (16-12 ATS) and like Clemson ended 8-10 vs ACC opponents. But unlike Tigers the Noles were a profitable 12-6 against the betting line within the conference. The teams split a pair this campaign with each winning/covering on the others home court. That split gives Florida State a 6-3 record the past nine meetings (5-4 ATS). Usually a good idea to ride a team on a hot ATS stretch heading into conference tournament action. To that end, Seminoles were a red-hot 11-2 ATS down the stretch, 7-1 ATS last eight on the hardwood. One final betting nugget, Seminoles have a perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four conference tourney openers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

ACC tournament, Greensboro
Road team won both Clemson-Florida State games this year; Seminoles (+5.5) won 59-55 Jan 19, then lost 62-56 (-2.5) to Tigers Feb 4. Tigers lost six of last eight games, but covered three of last four as the favorite. FSU lost three of last four games, but is 10-2 vs spread in last 12 games. Seminoles won this tourney in '12; they're 6-2 in first tourney game last eight years. Clemson is 4-8 in its first tourney game the last dozen years. Florida State doesn't have a senior in its rotation.

NC State (-3) crushed Pitt 68-50 at home Jan 3, shooting 58% inside arc; Wolfpack won five of last six games overall, covered five of seven when a favorite. State won two of three in last three ACC tourneys; they're 7-5 in their first tourney game last 12 years. Pitt won '08 Big East tourney, but since then, they're 3-6 in conference tourneys, 2-4 in first game of a tournament. Panthers lost last three games overall by 3-4-9 points; they covered three of last four games as an underdog.


Pac-12 tournament, MGM Grand Las Vegas
Road team won both Cal-Washington State games this year; Coogs won first meeting 69-66 (+9.5) Jan 4, then lost 76-67 (-3.5) at home Jan 25. Wazzu split its last four games (4-0 vs spread); they haven't won game in Pac-12 tourney since '08 (0-5 last five), missing tournament twice when it was Pac-10 and eight got in. Bears are 1-4 in this event last four years; they lost five of last six games overall, covered one of five as a favorite. Wazzu is 10-4-2 vs spread as a Pac-12 underdog.

Arizona State (-12) beat USC 64-59 at home Jan 22, rallying back from 10 down with 9:53 left; Sun Devils won five of last seven games, but are 1-5 vs spread in last six games as a favorite- they're 6-4 in games decided by 6 or less points. Trojans lost four of last five games but covered five of last seven as an underdog; USC lost its last four Pac-12 tourney tilts, with three losses by 5 or less points. ASU lost six of its last seven games in this tournament, with last win by point in OT in '13. .

Oregon State (-3.5) led Colorado 34-12 at half, waxed Buffs 72-58 Feb 21 in Corvallis, forcing 22 turnovers; Colorado lost seven of last ten games, is 5-3 as a favorite. Beavers lost six of last seven games overall, are 0-7 vs spread in last seven games as an underdog- they lost last three games in Pac-12 tourney by 11-6-14 points. Colorado won its first tourney game last four years; they won Pac-12 tourney in '12. Oregon State has young team with no seniors.

Washington lost nine of last 11 games after big man Upshaw was tossed off team; he was nation's leading shot blocker. Huskies used four starters 37+ minutes in last game, a shocking upset of Utah, playing seven guys- they lost three of last four tourney games, losing by 2-3-6 points, after they won tourney in both '10/'11. Stanford lost last three games, by 3-5-22 points; they're 2-8 vs spread last ten games. Cardinals won first game in this tournament five of last seven years.

Mountain West tournament, Las Vegas
UNLV is down to seven scholarship players and thats if McCaw is back for Rebels (concussion); Nevada (+10) won here 64-62 Jan 7, then lost at home to Rebels 67-62 (+4.5) Jan 27. Wolf Pack lost six of its last seven games, is 4-4 as a road underdog- they lost by 4-13 in two tourney tilts since joining Mountain West. UNLV is at home but hasn't won this event since 2008; they've won first tourney game last five years, with four of five wins by 8+- they covered last three games as a home favorite.

MAC tournament, Cleveland
Bowling Green (-4.5) beat Eastern Michigan 74-58 at home Jan 21; they made 11-25 from arc in game they led 37-26 at half. Falcons won three of last five games, are 14-5 vs spread in MAC this year, 10-4 as a favorite. Eagles won last three games, are 2-6 as MAC underdogs this year; they won first two MAC tourney games last two years. Falcons used two of its guys more than 33:00 Monday, but Holmes is a ?? Eastern won in OT Monday night, after being down 12 with 8:46 left.

Akron beat Western Michigan twice this season, 72-52 (-4.5) at home on Jan 6, then 71-69 (+2.5) in Kalamazoo 18 days later; Zips lost six of last eight games, as injuries have taken toll, but they've covered four of last five games. Broncos won four of last five games, are 3-3-2 as underdogs in MAC games; they were down 14 early to Ohio Monday, still trailed by 8 with 12:47 left but made 12-27 on arc- their two best players both played 35+ minutes. These teams won last two MAC tourneys.

Atlantic 14 tournament, Brooklyn
Fordham (+4) made 11-18 on arc, won 80-68 at George Mason Feb 18, scoring 50 points in second half; they've lost four of five games since. Last year was first time Rams played in A-14 tournament in seven years- they won first game by three. Fordham covered five of last seven games as an underdog. George Mason lost last two conference tourney games by total of five points; they've lost five of last six games overall, are 1-2 as A-14 favorites this season.

Big East tournament, NYC
Seton Hall lost eight of last nine games, is 0-6 as favorite, with five losses SU and a 1-point win; Pirates have won five of last six first round games, with last two by total of five points. Marquette lost last four conference tourney games, with three losses by 8+ points; Eagles lost six of their last seven games, with favorites covering all seven of those games. Road team won both Seton Hall-Marquette games this season; Hall (+3) won first meeting 80-70 Jan 28, then lost 57-54 (-6) ten days later.


Creighton was 8-1 in conference tourney games last three years, but the coach's son plays for Bulls now; Bluejays went 4-14 in Big East, but did cover their last six games- they're 1-3 as a favorite. DePaul lost last seven games, covering one of last five; Blue Demons are 2-7 in Big East tourney since joining league- last year was their first win in five years. Road team won both series games this year; DePaul won 70-60 (+9) in Omaha Jan 7, then Bluejays won rematch 75-62 (+1) in Chicago.

SEC tournament, Nashville
Mississippi State (+8) won 78-71 at Auburn Jan 26, in only meeting this season; Bulldogs held Auburn to 8-26 from arc. State is 4-9 since, losing five of last six games; they're 3-6 SU in SEC road games. Auburn lost last six games, has Mason back after his dad's death. Tigers are 1-9 in last ten SEC tournament games, with one win in '09. Bulldogs won this tourney in '09; they've lost five of last six tourney games, with last three losses all by 10+ points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 SWAN'S MISTRESS 5/2


# 5 CLASSICAL CAVIAR 6/1


# 7 DANCING DYNAMITE 20/1


All signs point to SWAN'S MISTRESS for the selection. Have a vibe this one might steal for this one. With superior win figures, Palone should have this mare in excellent position to win the gathering. Should be in the hunt again in this race, looking to add to that already high lifetime winning figure. CLASSICAL CAVIAR - Drawing the 5 post at this track has lead to a better than expected win pct. This gelding has been going to post versus some of the most competitive horses in this bunch most recently. DANCING DYNAMITE - This horse looks dangerous considering the high class statistics. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 8:30 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$5000 - N/W $1750 IN LAST 4 STARTS AE: CLAIMING $5000 W/ALLOWANCES ATER PICKS 2 OVER 9


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 SAINTFRANCIS 5/2


# 5 LASER LUCY 15/1


# 2 JAILHOUSE TUFF 5/1


SAINTFRANCIS looks competitive to best this pack. Overall statistics look competitive. Can't throw him out of the picture. If effort in the last race is any indicator, this race horse will have a very competitive shot in this one. High last race speed fig. When the trainer Carter puts Page up for the drive good things happen. All you need to do is look at the 32 win percent. LASER LUCY - When starting from the 5 hole, a much better than average win percentage has resulted. Look for Tyler and this entrant to end up in the winner's circle for this race. Great in the money pct for the trainer/horse combo. JAILHOUSE TUFF - A very good class horse shouldn't be be missed. With an average class rating of 83 all signs point to yes. Could best this field, just look at the speed fig - 78 - from his last contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 11 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 58

FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 MINISTER HENNY 2/1


# 9 TRIM TAMER 30/1


# 10 STEPHEN'S PAL 12/1


MINISTER HENNY has a decent shot to take this race. Could provide positive dividends based on respectable recent speed figures with an average of 55. Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last contest. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 68, has one of the best class advantages in this group. STEPHEN'S PAL - With a respectable 52 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest.