NCAAB major conference tournament betting breakdown
By Jason Logan
College basketball bettors were teased with a slate of mid-major conference tournaments last week, but now we get down to the nitty gritty. The seven major conferences headline the remaining tournaments this week, in what is truly one of the toughest tests for both sportsbooks and bettors.
With so many games on the go – and quick turnarounds – it’s nearly impossible to keep track of every team in every conference. In order to give you a head start on your handicapping, we highlight the seven major conference tournaments, breaking down the favorites to win, underdog contenders, and live long shots to look out for this coming week.
American Athletic Conference (March 12-15)
Favorite: SMU Mustangs +140 (24-6, 15-3 conference) – Someone has to win this conference and the Mustangs managed to lose just three games in AAC play. SMU plays great defense – 59.8 points allowed per game – and has great coaching with Larry Brown on the sidelines.
Underdog: Cincinnati Bearcats + 350 (22-9, 13-5) – The Bearcats have momentum on their side, winning five in row heading into the postseason. No. 3 Cincinnati won both meetings with SMU but drew a tough tournament opener, likely playing UConn in Hartford – pretty much the Huskies’ home court.
Long shot: Temple Owls +700 (22-9, 13-5) – The Owls have just two losses in their last 12 games, including a three-game winning run heading into the tournament. However, that pair of defeats came to SMU and Tulsa, the top two teams in the conference. The Owls have struggled to get over the hump in AAC.
Atlantic Coast Conference (March 10-14)
Favorite: Duke Blue Devils +125 (28-3, 15-3) – The Blue Devils are favorites despite finishing behind Virginia (+180) in the ACC standings. Duke is coming off a statement win in UNC (11th in a row) but hasn’t had much luck in the conference dance, failing to win the tournament crown the past three seasons.
Underdog: Louisville Cardinals +650 (24-7, 12-6) – Rick Pitino is a master at planning his players’ peaks at just the right time. Louisville enters its first ACC tournament off a win against No. 1 Virginia and riding a 4-1 run in its last five games. The Cardinals’ pressure defense – 14.5 forced turnovers/8.3 steals – makes them a threat in every game.
Long shot: North Carolina State Wolfpack +2,500 (19-12, 10-8) – The Wolfpack may have played their way into an NCAA at-large bid with their strong finish to the season, winning five of their last six games. NC State has some big names on its hit list, beating UNC, Duke, Louisville, so it won’t back down from a challenge. The Wolfpack crash the boards for 10.5 offensive rebounds a game.
Big 12 (March 11-14)
Favorite: Kansas Jayhawks +250 (24-7, 13-5) – The Jayhawks won the Big 12 title but are anything but invincible, losing their final game of the year to Oklahoma and losing to lower-tier teams KSU, WVU, and Oklahoma State in the past month. Leading scorer Perry Ellis is nursing a knee injury and forward Cliff Alexander is benched while under NCAA investigation.
Underdog: Iowa State Cyclones +400 (22-8, 12-6) – The Cyclones are a good price as the defending tournament champs and No. 2 seed. Iowa State has a deep scoring attack, ranked ninth nationally, that makes it very tough to clamp down on just one player. They’ve also showed toughness on the road at the perfect time.
Long shot: Texas Longhorns +800 (19-12, 8-10) – The fact a No. 7 seed is priced this low says oddsmakers fear the Longhorns. Texas is still trying to impress the selection committee and, in the process, save coach Rick Barnes from the firing squad. The Horns are long and athletic, leading the country in blocks (7.9 per game) and sitting fourth in total rebounds (39.8 per game).
Big East (March 11-14)
Favorite: Villanova Wildcats -150 (29-2, 16-2) – The Wildcats could be the most well-rounded team in college basketball. They went 22-8 ATS during the regular season and boast an average scoring margin of +15.1 points. Villanova could, however, draw Seton Hall in the opener. The Pirates were one of just two Big East teams to beat the Cats.
Underdog: Butler Bulldogs +550 (22-9, 12-6) – The Bulldogs are no strangers to postseason shockers. Butler is playing great basketball heading into the tournament, with wins in seven of its last 10. The Bulldogs rebound well, defending against the 3-pointer and have a deep offense, with six players scoring at least 7.5 points per game.
Long shot: St. John’s Red Storm +800 (21-10, 10-8) – The Johnnies took a four-game winning streak into this past weekend’s one-sided loss to Villanova, and have won seven of their last nine games heading into the Big East tournament. St. John’s is right at home in Madison Square Garden and have an experienced crew with five seniors and three juniors.
Big Ten (March 11-15)
Favorite: Wisconsin Badgers -110 (28-3, 16-2) – The Badgers showed just how good they truly are by slapping Ohio State across the face with a 24-point win in Columbus Sunday. Wisconsin can grind it out or fill it up on offense, with a deep attack anchored by unguardable 7-footer Frank Kaminsky. Traevon Jackson (ankle) is still a question mark for the postseason.
Underdog: Michigan State Spartans +700 (21-10, 12-6) – This is all on Tom Izzo. The Spartans should probably be bigger underdogs at than 7/1, but Branden Dawson is expected to play after a concussion scare and MSU did close out with two straight wins. Izzo will need to coach up the Green and White, who come in as the No. 3 seed but facing plenty of motivated teams on the NCAA bubble.
Long shot: Maryland Terrapins +900 (26-5, 14-4) – This could be the best deal of championship week. The Terps are the No. 2 seed, ride a seven-game win streak (including win over Wisconsin), and have the easiest path to the final. Maryland is loaded with experience and held opponents to just 60 points over that seven-game span.
Pac-12 (March 11-14)
Favorites: Arizona Wildcats -200 (28-3, 16-2) – The Wildcats are the cream of the crop in a top-heavy Pac-12, with really just two teams in the mix for the conference crown (along with Utah). Arizona has the second-highest scoring margin in the country at +17.7 points per win and went 20-11 ATS in the regular season.
Underdog: Oregon Ducks +1,200 (23-8, 13-5) – Oregon has quietly become one of the hottest teams in college hoops, with 5-0 SU and ATS run to end the season, including a notable win over Utah. The Ducks actually finished as the No. 2 seed in the Pac-12 (you’d never know by this futures price) and can either outgun their opponents – scoring 76 points per game – or get it done with defense, limiting foes to just 63.8 points during those final five games.
Long shot: UCLA Bruins +1,000 (19-12, 11-7) – UCLA has the talent on paper to contend for the Pac-12 title but can the Bruins beat anyone outside of Pauley Pavilion? UCLA went 2-7 SU on the road during conference play and watches its offense drop from 80.7 points per game to 60.3 away from home. The Bruins won three in a row to finish the season, has wins over Utah and Oregon, and played Arizona tough.
SEC (March 11-15)
Favorite: Kentucky Wildcats -400 (31-0, 18-0) – Finding a weakness in UK’s armor is tough. If anything, boredom is the Wildcats’ toughest opponent. Kentucky posted an average margin of victory of +21.2 points per game – the highest since Duke +24.7 in 1998-99 – but still only went 16-14-1 ATS. Fun fact: Kentucky hasn’t won an SEC tournament title since 2011 and have just two league crowns in the last 10 years.
Underdog: Arkansas Razorbacks +1,000 (24-7, 13-5) – The Razorbacks are the No. 2 team in the conference but pretty much any team could be in these last two spots. Arkansas, which scores 79 points a night (11th), gets the winner of the Tennessee-Vanderbilt game. It lost to the Vols already and Vandy is on a five-game tear, so it’s no clear road to the final.
Long shot: LSU Tigers +1,800 (22-9, 11-7) – The Tigers closed the regular season with a bang, taking down Arkansas in the schedule finale, and won four of their last five games. Louisiana State stood toe-to-toe with Kentucky in a 71-69 home loss and has some long and athletic size up front, blocking 6.1 shots per game dominating the glass with 39 total rebounds a game.