.....another concept I was tossing around was , if a capper I was fading had a winning day, say over X amount of units, then I would double up my units the following days. I have spent the past while looking over some long-term results of WL cappers and very few of the one's that I would potentially fade have more than a couple of winning days in a row, most just had a day or two of straight winning, and that includes days where they barely profited from their plays. This would make up for the winning day they had and then some, and once you were to increase the size of how much each play is worth, then it would be more likely to hit sooner rather than later because that particular capper has already experienced a winning day(s), and is more prone to a losing day.....
I think that is a great idea. Similar to a chase system but in reverse, or in this case, chasing a loser.
Here's the tough part....knowing when (at which point in the season) you have firmly identified a person, a capper, a service worthy of being labeled "the one". Can you identify this person early in the season? Or does it take months to find this person and be confident that they continue to lose?
I have attached an old copy of a "Service Fade" spreadsheet that I created and used to update for the viewers of Bookie Buster's service play threads. It will allow you to see some trends of services that were worthy of fading at certain times.
Perhaps you are familiar with my spreadsheets. If not, here's what you need to know:
Each day is color coded to easily identify a winning day (yellow), a losing day (gray) or a break-even day (no color) and also makes it easy to see streaks over periods of time.
Each service was ranked by winning percentage (in reverse since this was a "fade" sheet and not one of my "play" sheets).
The sheet was broken into separate groups, based on the total number of plays. And each separate group was then ranked by winning percentage within each group (I felt the total number of tracked plays was meaningful in regard to percentage...since a 1-win & 4-loss capper goes from 25% to 50% with a single win....whereas a 10-win & 40-loss capper doesn't change with an extra win).
The spread sheet has multiple sheets labeled "Sheet 1", "Sheet 2" and "Sheet 3" in chronological order. Click on these "sheet" tabs located at the bottom to flip through the all the dates shown on the spreadsheet. You will notice that some cappers appear and disappear from the sheets as they get better or worse.
Despite their overall season winning percentages, some services were only great fades during certain periods of time (see Gator Report and Colemen 4* on Sheet #1 but notice how they turn it around on Sheets #2 and #3....then see Hondo and Jordan 100~300* on Sheet #2 but notice how they turned it around on Sheet #3).
This may or may not help, but is a great illustration for the purposes of this discussion.