Wagerline Team Experts "System"

[sds23]

The plays in green means it won, the plays in red means it lost. Total results for both systems are at the bottom.

07/01/07 WL Capper Fade Results

Florida Marlins -130
Braves/Marlins UNDER 9.5 -125
Oakland Athletics +123
Athletics/Yankees UNDER 8.5 -115
Cleveland Indians -140
Indians/Devil Rays UNDER 9.5 -115
St Louis Cardinals -115
Cardinals/Reds OVER 10.5 -110
Philidelphia Phillies -130
Phillies/Mets OVER 11 EV
Pittsburgh Pirates -158
Nationals/Pirates OVER 9 -115
LAA Angels -140
Angels/Orioles UNDER 8 EV
Houston Astros -136
Astros/Rockies OVER 9.5 EV
Texas Rangers +155
Rangers/Red Sox UNDER 11 -110
Chicago White Sox -119
White Sox/Royals UNDER 9.5 +105
Milwaukee Brewers -110
Brewers/Cubs UNDER 8.5 -115
San Franscisco Giants -125
Giants/Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 -120
Seattle Mariners EV
Mariners/Blue Jays UNDER 9 EV
LA Dodgers -113
Dodgers/Padres OVER 8.5 -120
Minnesota Twins +155
Twins/Tigers UNDER 9.5 -120

Record: (21-9-0, +11.2 units)

Looking very promising so far Intrinzik

 

[sds23]

In regards to fading a certain capper on WL, I think the best strategy would be to find out one of the weakest on there, and fade that capper for the ENTIRE season, but start in the middle like I have done. I will continue posting the plays, but starting with football season I will be choosing a select few WL cappers and fading every single one of their plays. There is already a few that I have picked out for each sport (NFL, NCAAF, NHL, etc), as well as a few to fade for the entire year in every sport. It actually didn't take me too long to find one who is down an average of around 3000 units (at $100/unit) each of the past six season. That number is simply astonishing to me, but it is simply what that particular capper has done. Take a minute to think just how much that is, and on a consistent basis (each season that this particular capper has posted his plays for, they have lost 3000 units or more during the course of the entire calendar year in all sports combined).

Back with more later.

The golden goose has landed!

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

The golden goose has landed!

Just stating the facts. Anyone could go find it for themselves.

I intend to find some of these cappers to fade and start charting them all in Excel. Then we will really be able to see the results over the long-term.

 

[Preussen]

I just made a quick check and noticed that out of the 28 different Wagerline #1 team "experts" 21(!) have a losing overall record, most of them hugely so. Practically everybody is an extreme high-volume capper.
Now of course it is possible for a losing player to still have a good grip on a single team but I think it's much more likely that it's just variance that brought them luck concerning that team's plays. I'm interested how this experiment turns out but I believe the Fade system has a much higher chance of success.
Although even the fade system may have a problem as with the high number of games these cappers play the juice will account for a lot of their losses so the profit of fading them will be greatly smaller than their losses.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

I just made a quick check and noticed that out of the 28 different Wagerline #1 team "experts" 21(!) have a losing overall record, most of them hugely so. Practically everybody is an extreme high-volume capper.
Now of course it is possible for a losing player to still have a good grip on a single team but I think it's much more likely that it's just variance that brought them luck concerning that team's plays. I'm interested how this experiment turns out but I believe the Fade system has a much higher chance of success.
Although even the fade system may have a problem as with the high number of games these cappers play the juice will account for a lot of their losses so the profit of fading them will be greatly smaller than their losses.

I'm kind of thinking the same thing, but I will continue to monitor both "systems" and see how each one turns out.

No early games today so I have the morning to relax, unlike yesterday. Back with today's fade plays and "team expert" plays closer to game time this afternoon.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

Here are the plays for the WL capper fade. Again, I am not sure how long this run could last (we should have started at or close to the start of the season), but we'll give it a try. Come football and basketball season we will identify several potential prospects and give each a trial to the start the season. Whichever one's do the worse we will fade.

Chicago Cubs -161
Cubs/Nationals OVER 8.5 -110
Milwaukee Brewers -141
Brewers/Pirates OVER 9.5 -105
Texas Rangers +142
Rangers/Red Sox OVER 11 -105
Minnesota Twins +170
Twins/Yankees OVER 9.5 +105
Cleveland Indians -205
Indians/Devil Rays UNDER 9.5 EV
Philadelphia Phillies -122
Phillies/Astros OVER 9.5 -110
Seattle Mariners -120
Mariners/Royals OVER 8 -120
Arizona Diamondbacks -133
Diamondbacks/Cardinals OVER 8.5 -105
Chicago White Sox -110
White Sox/Orioles UNDER 7.5 EV
New York Mets -123
Mets/Rockies UNDER 10 -110
San Diego Padres -131
Padres/Marlins UNDER 8 -110
Oakland Athletics -131
Athletics/Blue Jays UNDER 9 -110
LA Dodgers -121
Dodgers/Braves UNDER 7 -105

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

07/02/07

Chicago Cubs Team Expert: Cubs -152
Washington Nationals Team Expert: Cubs -152
Milwaukee Brewers Team Expert: Brewers -134
Pittsburgh Pirates Team Expert: Brewers -134
Texas Rangers Team Expert: Red Sox -160
Boston Red Sox Team Expert: Rangers +150
Minnesota Twins Team Expert: Yankees -191
New York Yankees Team Expert: Twins +178
Tampa Bay Devil Rays Team Expert: Indians -187
Cleveland Indians Team Expert: Devil Rays +177

 

[cruisin]

07/02/07

Chicago Cubs Team Expert: Cubs -152
Washington Nationals Team Expert: Cubs -152
Milwaukee Brewers Team Expert: Brewers -134
Pittsburgh Pirates Team Expert: Brewers -134
Texas Rangers Team Expert: Red Sox -160
Boston Red Sox Team Expert: Rangers +150
Minnesota Twins Team Expert: Yankees -191
New York Yankees Team Expert: Twins +178
Tampa Bay Devil Rays Team Expert: Indians -187
Cleveland Indians Team Expert: Devil Rays +177

This is my first time looking at this thread, so please bare with me. Are we suppose to play the side on the left or right for those that are different?
Thanks.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

This is my first time looking at this thread, so please bare with me. Are we suppose to play the side on the left or right for those that are different?
Thanks.

You are supposed to look at the two "Team Experts" of a particular game (both sides), and if they have the same pick for that particular game, then you play whichever side they both picked. Hope that makes since.

At any rate, I wouldn't just start playing these as of yet, as this is just the first testing phase. We should play it safe and just track the record of this system, as well as the fades that I post first, and then at a later date we can decide what to play and what not to (in other words, what works and what doesn't).

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

Philadelphia Phillies Team Expert: Phillies -126
Houston Astros Team Expert: Astros +116
Seattle Mariners Team Expert: Mariners -115
Kansas City Royals Team Expert: Mariners -115
Arizona Diamondbacks Team Expert: Diamondbacks -132
St Louis Cardinals Team Expert: Cardinals +122
Baltimore Orioles Team Expert: White Sox -109
Chicago White Sox Team Expert: White Sox -109
New York Mets Team Expert: Mets -120
Colorado Rockies Team Expert: Rockies +110
Florida Marlins Team Expert: Padres -128
San Diego Padres Team Expert: Padres -128

 

[tool21]

To be honest with you, this is a damn good idea. Hope it works.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

Toronto Blue Jays Team Expert: Athletics -122
Oakland Athletics Team Expert: Blue Jays +112
Atlanta Braves Team Expert: Braves +105
LA Dodgers Team Expert: Braves +105

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

I will post the results of everything early in the morning, right before I leave for vacation. I'll be gone for about a week so if anyone could post what each "Team Expert" posts for each game, that would be great. If not, I will post everything as best as possible when I get back. I will also do the same for the WL Capper Fades, which I will not need anyone to retrieve each day.

Have a great 4th of July holiday folks, and I'll see you all back here sometime next weekend! :toast:

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

07/02/07 WL Capper Fade Results

Chicago Cubs -161
Cubs/Nationals OVER 8.5 -110
Milwaukee Brewers -141
Brewers/Pirates OVER 9.5 -105
Texas Rangers +142
Rangers/Red Sox OVER 11 -105
Minnesota Twins +170
Twins/Yankees OVER 9.5 +105
Cleveland Indians -205
Indians/Devil Rays UNDER 9.5 EV
Philadelphia Phillies -122
Phillies/Astros OVER 9.5 -110
Seattle Mariners -120
Mariners/Royals OVER 8 -120
Arizona Diamondbacks -133
Diamondbacks/Cardinals OVER 8.5 -105
Chicago White Sox -110
White Sox/Orioles UNDER 7.5 EV
New York Mets -123
Mets/Rockies UNDER 10 -110
San Diego Padres -131
Padres/Marlins UNDER 8 -110
Oakland Athletics -131
Athletics/Blue Jays UNDER 9 -110
LA Dodgers -121
Dodgers/Braves UNDER 7 -105


Record: (32-24-0, +5.41 units)

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

The plays in green means it won, the plays in red means it lost. The plays that are in bold means that both team experts had the same pick with that game. Total results for both systems are at the bottom.

07/02/07 Results

Chicago Cubs Team Expert: Cubs -152
Washington Nationals Team Expert: Cubs -152
Milwaukee Brewers Team Expert: Brewers -134
Pittsburgh Pirates Team Expert: Brewers -134
Texas Rangers Team Expert: Red Sox -160
Boston Red Sox Team Expert: Rangers +150
Minnesota Twins Team Expert: Yankees -191
New York Yankees Team Expert: Twins +178
Tampa Bay Devil Rays Team Expert: Indians -187
Cleveland Indians Team Expert: Devil Rays +177
Philadelphia Phillies Team Expert: Phillies -126
Houston Astros Team Expert: Astros +116
Seattle Mariners Team Expert: Mariners -115
Kansas City Royals Team Expert: Mariners -115
Arizona Diamondbacks Team Expert: Diamondbacks -132
St Louis Cardinals Team Expert: Cardinals +122
Baltimore Orioles Team Expert: White Sox -109
Chicago White Sox Team Expert: White Sox -109
New York Mets Team Expert: Mets -120
Colorado Rockies Team Expert: Rockies +110
Florida Marlins Team Expert: Padres -128
San Diego Padres Team Expert: Padres -128
Toronto Blue Jays Team Expert: Athletics -122
Oakland Athletics Team Expert: Blue Jays +112
Atlanta Braves Team Expert: Braves +105
LA Dodgers Team Expert: Braves +105

Record when both experts agree: (12-9, +0.98 units)
Record all together (every play): (45-39, +1.31 units)

 

[Preussen]

I'm afraid I'm missing something here - what exactly is the point in tracking the plays where the experts disagree? Unless there are significant line changes those plays will always end up losing the juice, not more and not less.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

Just got back in town, had a great holiday week and I hope you all did, too!

At any rate, I will be trying to catch up with everything periodically today, a quick check shows our MLB fades went pretty well since I left, and I have yet to check the "Team Expert" plays (these take the longest).

I will probably start working on the spreadsheet sometime within the next few days, since I didn't have time to work on it during vacation even though I took my laptop. Oh well, it will get done when it gets done.

Back in a bit with the results for the WL Capper Fade plays.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

Sorry I haven't been posting as of late, but I have been pretty busy with some other things, and didn't have the time necessary to compile all of the lines, and find out what each team expert picked, etc. The fades are easier to look back on, but the guy I was fading has been just breaking even lately and I think he has leveled off for the season, so I have been looking through the many thousands of WL cappers and have identified a few select ones that should have a losing second half of the season (and a BIG losing second half if history repeats it self). The main one I am going to be tracking has lost 200 units or more each of the last 5 or 6 seasons, but has only lost 50 units thus far this season. I'll be posting that particular persons fades starting tomorrow, and use the line that is listed on TheRX Live Lines for BetJam when I post the fades (usually early afternoon). I probably won't be playing any of the fades myself this season, I just want to track and see whether or not history does indeed repeat itself on a common basis, and if it does show to do that then the WL Capper Fades will be the only thing I play from now on. One downside is, though, is that the fades will only work for MLB and NHL, because they are both sports that use the money line. Pointspread-based sports will not work with the WL Capper Fades because even the people who lose hundreds and hundreds of units each and every season in say, NCAAB, they still hit at a clip AROUND 50% and thus are just losing juice, and since they are playing thousands of plays per year (sometimes hundreds per day on big game days) they end up losing A LOT of juice. Just thought I would clarify that so that no one expects any WL Capper Fades during sports seasons other than NHL and MLB, and possibly only MLB since NHL doesn't show to make THAT much profit each season.

Back tomorrow with hopefully the start of something huge.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

07/14/07 WL Capper Fades

Houston Astros -101
San Francisco Giants +118
Giants/Dodgers OVER 8.5 +100
St Louis Cardinals +190
Cardinals/Phillies OVER 9.5 -105
Washington Nationals +154
Nationals/Marlins UNDER 9 -105
Baltimore Orioles -102
Orioles/White Sox OVER 8.5 -122
Toronto Blue Jays +190
Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 9.5 -115
Cleveland Indians -210
Indians/Royals UNDER 8.5 -105
Colorado Rockies +175
Rockies/Brewers UNDER 8.5 -110
Atlanta Braves -138
Braves/Pirates OVER 8.5 -110
Minnesota Twins -109
Twins/Athletics OVER 9 +100
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +187
Devil Rays/Yankees UNDER 10 -125
Cincinnati Reds +165
Reds/Mets UNDER 9 -105
Los Angeles Angels -212
Angels/Rangers OVER 8.5 -105
Arizona Diamondbacks +129
Diamondbacks/Padres OVER 9 +100
Seattle Mariners +105
Mariners/Tigers OVER 9 -120

All lines taken from BetJam and current as of 10:30 PST.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

07/14/07 WL Capper Fades ***RECAP***

Houston Astros -101
San Francisco Giants +118
Giants/Dodgers OVER 8.5 +100
St Louis Cardinals +190
Cardinals/Phillies OVER 9.5 -105
Washington Nationals +154
Nationals/Marlins UNDER 9 -105
Baltimore Orioles -102
Orioles/White Sox OVER 8.5 -122
Toronto Blue Jays +190
Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 9.5 -115
Cleveland Indians -210
Indians/Royals UNDER 8.5 -105
Colorado Rockies +175
Rockies/Brewers UNDER 8.5 -110
Atlanta Braves -138
Braves/Pirates OVER 8.5 -110
Minnesota Twins -109
Twins/Athletics OVER 9 +100
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +187
Devil Rays/Yankees UNDER 10 -125
Cincinnati Reds +165
Reds/Mets UNDER 9 -105
Los Angeles Angels -212
Angels/Rangers OVER 8.5 -105
Arizona Diamondbacks +129
Diamondbacks/Padres OVER 9 +100
Seattle Mariners +105
Mariners/Tigers OVER 9 -120

(16-11-2, +4.18 units)