On the "A" spreadsheet, abc is correct for an Under play as the Cubs are .21 and CWS is .24. But on spreadsheet "B" which is the last 12 days only, Cubs are even lower at .17 (actually last place), BUT CWS, is at a high of .32 (31 of 98), and nullifying the play on "B". Therefore its a NOPLAY for me.
:toast:
I'm staying away from the fades and the Overs that are more than 9. I have more MLs (CWS and LOS) as I'm using Spreadheet "B" also to see if the last 12 weeks only provides maybe better results. We will see.
We will see real soon too, as CWS is 15% higher in Spreadsheet B, and I love that +145, even against Zambrano!
Good luck on all your plays!
I'm sorry if I confused anyone. I made sure to say that I used the information from June 1st onwards in order to alleviate any confusion. I'm just here because I like money also and I want to help out. Sorry if I got anyone confused.
Jersey, you are doing the right thing and having two spreadsheets. Your second spreadsheet will be more recent and hopefully notice when teams I am just trying to help you keep up with all the information by keeping a spreadsheet for June 1st on. I went ahead and threw down those bets that I found on the June 1st set. I am also playing the O9.5 fades. I don't know if you saw, but the overs that were 9.5 or up were 1-3 yesterday. We picked the wrong day to start fading.
I also didn't play the MLs that were a little lower. I was even reluctant to play the Yankees after the half ass performance yesterday killing my 3 team parlay paying out over +660.I'll let everyone know how the information from June 1st onwards did after the games today. We can then compare them and see whether changing the data set will change the outcome. As you can see, a lot of the picks have remained the same, so this data is a good idea of consistency.
Once again, I apologize if anyone took the information I provided, bet it, and lost. I was simply putting up what information I had so Jersey could compare. Please follow Jersey, because this is his thread and this is his system. I am only here to make money and hopefully help out some.
Thanks for all the work you put in Jersey and I hope we can both hit the books hard. Here's to another positive day! :toast:
I'm sorry if I confused anyone. I made sure to say that I used the information from June 1st onwards in order to alleviate any confusion. I'm just here because I like money also and I want to help out. Sorry if I got anyone confused.
Jersey, you are doing the right thing and having two spreadsheets. Your second spreadsheet will be more recent and hopefully notice when teams I am just trying to help you keep up with all the information by keeping a spreadsheet for June 1st on. I went ahead and threw down those bets that I found on the June 1st set. I am also playing the O9.5 fades. I don't know if you saw, but the overs that were 9.5 or up were 1-3 yesterday. We picked the wrong day to start fading.
I'll let everyone know how the information from June 1st onwards did after the games today. We can then compare them and see whether changing the data set will change the outcome. As you can see, a lot of the picks have remained the same, so this data is a good idea of consistency.
Once again, I apologize if anyone took the information I provided, bet it, and lost. I was simply putting up what information I had so Jersey could compare. Please follow Jersey, because this is his thread and this is his system. I am only here to make money and hopefully help out some.
Thanks for all the work you put in Jersey and I hope we can both hit the books hard. Here's to another positive day! :toast:
i dont think you confused anyone i was just curious on what the difference was.
Unfortunately, the more games we track, the less each game will mean and thus changes in their ranking will be few and far between. That's why I mentioned a couple pages back then we should try to find the sweet spot. 12 days sounds like a good starting point, so Jersey has the right idea. That's why I wanted to put forth the information from the 1st onwards to make comparisons.
Sheesh, the MLs got hammered today. The O/Us are looking good for today. The MLs went 0-3 pending Dodgers game. The O/Us are 2-1 pending Dodgers game, too. This is for the 12 day data.
For the data from June 1st onwards, we're looking at 2-2 O/Us and 0-2 MLs. This is pending the Dodgers game. Also, the fades on the overs went 0-1-1. The FLA/BOS game didn't complete, so it was a push/no bet for me. The score was 2-1 in the 6th, so I had faith in that one going through. Too bad Mother Nature didn't want us to win.
It looks like the Unders are the best bet overall. This is going to be the first negative day so far. Personally, I think we should go back to our 9% and up cutoff. We would have only had 2 losses for the 12 day data and only 1 loss for the June 1st data. They are still losses, but less of them. After today, I'm going to impose stricter guidelines on my bets based on this data.
Jersey, I'm thinking about trying a different approach to the O/Us. I wonder if instead of having two teams that each must meet a certain criteria, it would be better to add their percentages and have a cutoff that way. That way, we'd require the teams to, on average, score a certain percentage of the time. You could also then rank the O/Us by strength. For example, when looking at the under, two teams together that average 0.21 would be a stronger bet than two teams that average 0.25. This could always screw us, like in the case of TB/COL, but I'm gonna try to spend a little time, analyze every game, and see how they fit in with this.
Don't let one day ruin everything. The system has been consistently positive, so that allows us to have these off, negative days.
For the data from June 1st onwards, we're looking at 2-2 O/Us and 0-2 MLs. This is pending the Dodgers game. Also, the fades on the overs went 0-1-1. The FLA/BOS game didn't complete, so it was a push/no bet for me. The score was 2-1 in the 6th, so I had faith in that one going through. Too bad Mother Nature didn't want us to win.
It looks like the Unders are the best bet overall. This is going to be the first negative day so far. Personally, I think we should go back to our 9% and up cutoff. We would have only had 2 losses for the 12 day data and only 1 loss for the June 1st data. They are still losses, but less of them. After today, I'm going to impose stricter guidelines on my bets based on this data.
Jersey, I'm thinking about trying a different approach to the O/Us. I wonder if instead of having two teams that each must meet a certain criteria, it would be better to add their percentages and have a cutoff that way. That way, we'd require the teams to, on average, score a certain percentage of the time. You could also then rank the O/Us by strength. For example, when looking at the under, two teams together that average 0.21 would be a stronger bet than two teams that average 0.25. This could always screw us, like in the case of TB/COL, but I'm gonna try to spend a little time, analyze every game, and see how they fit in with this.
Don't let one day ruin everything. The system has been consistently positive, so that allows us to have these off, negative days.
Spot on. World Number One brought this up earlier, with the lesser amount of games, average 11 in 12 days, which averages 95 innings, each inning a run is scored or not, is a little more than 1 percentage point, which willl provide for more variance. But even still, we will have a lot of instances where a hotter team is 9 or more percent higher, and with this we play it for the whole 3 or even 4 game series. And teams winning all 3 or 4 less doesn't happen that much. But on the same note, I don't know the record of playing teams on the 3rd game, that have lost the 1st two of the series. We could do the approach that WNO mentioned, that if we win the 1st 2 games of the series, we stop and don't play the 3rd game.
Great Recomendations!
The Unders finished 3-0! bringing our Under record to 23-8 +14.40.
I'm ok with the 21% average for the Under Play for Spreadsheet A (1June)
, That spreadsheet Scoring Average was 26% going into Thursday games. Spreadheet B, 12 days only, the average is 27%, I'll stick with the automatic play of the Team .21 or under, playing a team .28 and under, just short term, to see how it goes. ATL/CINN was a NOPLAY on "A", but on "B" was a PLAY as it had ATL .25 and Cinn .20. We can also check into rankings as you said and even go further- base it on the Listed Totals, for instance, if we have 2 teams that average say 22% but the line is 10, we can still have an under play. Lots of options, gotta luv it, but as long as we are producing Winners! Today's (2) 6% PLAYS LOS (W) and SEA (L), finished 1-1 o.oo, nothing lost, and feels like a bad beat as Seattle lost in extra innnings. (The truer BAD BEAT was CWS(15%) +140, leading 5-1 going into the btm 8th and we lose, arggg!^<<^) Still like to give it the 6%'s another try, as 6%PLAYS themselves are only 5-4 -.30, nothing really lost. If Sea would of won it would of been 6-3 and in the plus. I'm only betting 1 unit each play, so its not like I will use that money to put extra on the 9%PLAYS. Even with todays 2 losses, 9%PLAYS are now 16-5 +10.85.
Good stuff.
:toast:
Day9/Jun18 RESULTS
ATL/CINN UNDER 9 -110 WINNER
SEA/SD UNDER 8.5 -125 WINNER
OAK/LOS UNDER 7.5 -125 WINNER
UNDERS 3-0 +3.00
TB/COL OVER 9 -125 LOST
OVERS 0-1 -1.25
NYY (13%,15%)-1.5 -155 LOST
CWS (15%) +145 LOST
9%andUP 0-2 -2.55
LOS (7%) -146 WINNER
SEA (8%) +101 LOST
6%andUP 1-3 -2.55
4-4 -.80
YTD (9 DAYS)
UNDERS 23-8-1 74% +14.40
OVERS where line is 9 or less 11-4-1 73% +6.40
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
OVERS where the line is 9.5 or higher FADE PLAY 0-2 0% -2.05
9% and Up Plays 16-5 76% +10.85
6% and Up Plays 21-9 70% +10.55
Overall 57-31-3 65% +22.75
DAY # W L T Units W L T % YTD Units
1 10-Jun 8 4 1 2.21 8 4 1 67% 2.21
2 11-Jun 7 5 1 2.88 15 9 2 63% 5.09
3 12-Jun 9 2 0 7.10 24 11 2 69% 12.19
4 13-Jun 7 6 0 0.38 31 17 2 65% 12.57
5 14-Jun 9 1 0 7.95 40 18 2 69% 20.52
6 15-Jun 2 0 0 2.00 42 18 2 70% 22.52
7 16-Jun 7 6 1 0.72 49 24 3 67% 23.24
8 17-Jun 4 3 0 0.31 53 27 3 66% 23.55
9 18-Jun 4 4 0 -.80 57 31 3 65% 22.75
:toast:
ATL/CINN UNDER 9 -110 WINNER
SEA/SD UNDER 8.5 -125 WINNER
OAK/LOS UNDER 7.5 -125 WINNER
UNDERS 3-0 +3.00
TB/COL OVER 9 -125 LOST
OVERS 0-1 -1.25
NYY (13%,15%)-1.5 -155 LOST
CWS (15%) +145 LOST
9%andUP 0-2 -2.55
LOS (7%) -146 WINNER
SEA (8%) +101 LOST
6%andUP 1-3 -2.55
4-4 -.80
YTD (9 DAYS)
UNDERS 23-8-1 74% +14.40
OVERS where line is 9 or less 11-4-1 73% +6.40
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
OVERS where the line is 9.5 or higher FADE PLAY 0-2 0% -2.05
9% and Up Plays 16-5 76% +10.85
6% and Up Plays 21-9 70% +10.55
Overall 57-31-3 65% +22.75
DAY # W L T Units W L T % YTD Units
1 10-Jun 8 4 1 2.21 8 4 1 67% 2.21
2 11-Jun 7 5 1 2.88 15 9 2 63% 5.09
3 12-Jun 9 2 0 7.10 24 11 2 69% 12.19
4 13-Jun 7 6 0 0.38 31 17 2 65% 12.57
5 14-Jun 9 1 0 7.95 40 18 2 69% 20.52
6 15-Jun 2 0 0 2.00 42 18 2 70% 22.52
7 16-Jun 7 6 1 0.72 49 24 3 67% 23.24
8 17-Jun 4 3 0 0.31 53 27 3 66% 23.55
9 18-Jun 4 4 0 -.80 57 31 3 65% 22.75
:toast:
DAY 10 - June 19th PLAYS:
OAK/SD (38%,36%) UNDER 7.5 -130
LOS/LAA (58%,68%) OVER 8-105
LAA (12%,12%) -102
COL (12%,11%) -172
TOR (10%, 13%) -112
CLE (8%,13%) -109
TB (8%,7%) -118
BOS (8%,7%) -150
MILW (8%,6%) +106
The percentages are from the 2 spreadsheets. I am still playing the 6-8%'s to see if it shows progress (5-4 -.30). The 9% and up record is 16-5 +10.85.
I really like these lower priced plays, LAA, TOR, CLE, MILW, but everything is for 1 unit as always. There were some Over plays but the line is more than 9, so I'm staying away. Ample picks to make a nice profit today.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
:toast:
OAK/SD (38%,36%) UNDER 7.5 -130
LOS/LAA (58%,68%) OVER 8-105
LAA (12%,12%) -102
COL (12%,11%) -172
TOR (10%, 13%) -112
CLE (8%,13%) -109
TB (8%,7%) -118
BOS (8%,7%) -150
MILW (8%,6%) +106
The percentages are from the 2 spreadsheets. I am still playing the 6-8%'s to see if it shows progress (5-4 -.30). The 9% and up record is 16-5 +10.85.
I really like these lower priced plays, LAA, TOR, CLE, MILW, but everything is for 1 unit as always. There were some Over plays but the line is more than 9, so I'm staying away. Ample picks to make a nice profit today.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
:toast:
