Tracking "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" SYSTEM

JerseyShop101 · Jun 8, 2009

I'm making this thread to see if this "system" can be profitable.

I'm tracking each teams "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" for their recent games, as an indicator on how productive they are in scoring each inning. I'm using a minimum of their last 4 games in which they have only scored in 2 or less innings as a basis.

Baltimore is currently the worst at having scored in only 9 separate innings (13 runs) in its last 8 games (72 innings).

Kansas City has only scored in 8 separate innings (17 runs) in its last 7 games (63 innings)

San Diego has only scored in only 8 separate innings (21 runs) in their last 6 games (62 innings).

Florida has only scored in only 5 separate innings (12 runs) in their last 4 games (34 innings).

Today's plays (All 1 unit) are:

San Francisco +124
San Francisco Scores First -145
Florida Team Total Under 4.5 -120

Arizona +153
Arizona Scores First -115
San Diego Team Total Under 4 -125

:toast:

NIRSI SYSTEM
0-0 0.00

Michelangelo · Jun 8, 2009

I've always been interested in this exact concept but never found the time to allot the time required.

Good luck.

JerseyShop101 · Jun 8, 2009

Thanks.

The hottest team is Colorado:
07-Jun 06-Jun 05-Jun 04-Jun
COL 3(7=9) 4(10=9) 3(11=9) 4(10=9)

Colorado has scored in 14 separate innings (38 runs) in their last 4 games (36 Innings)

And today is no exception as they've already scored in 3 separate innings already today (4 runs), and lead STL 4-1 in the bottom of the 6th right now.

Michelangelo · Jun 8, 2009

Yep. They are my play today.

JerseyShop101 · Jun 10, 2009

REVISED:

Here are the June games (Innings Scored in divided by Innings played)

1-9 Jun 09
KAN 8--63 13%
BAL 10--62 16%
SDG 13--79 16%
WAS 12--63 19%
DET 17--82 21%
ATL 16--73 22%
CIN 17--79 22%
CWS 20--90 22%
MIN 14--63 22%
SEA 14--63 22%
STL 18--81 22%
TEX 16--72 22%
LOS 17--74 23%
FLA 19--78 24%
OAK 19--80 24%
PIT 19--78 24%
ARI 18--72 25%
MIL 19--72 26%
SFO 19--72 26%
BOS 17--62 27%
CUB 18--66 27%
NYM 17--62 27%
TAM 17--63 27%
LAA 18--63 29%
NYY 21--71 30%
HOU 23--74 31%
CLE 20--62 32%
PHI 21--66 32%
TOR 23--72 32%
COL 19--54 35%
519--2111 25%

Today's Plays: (6% or more difference)

Colorado +120
Toronto +149
BEST BET - CLEVE -149
Seattle -116
Dodgers -230

:toast:

thesandman1 · Jun 10, 2009

Interesting conceipt. Will be interesting in seeing how it comes out. But do you really feel comfortable laying 230 on any team. Thats one play I would never make.

JerseyShop101 · Jun 10, 2009

thesandman1 said:
Interesting conceipt. Will be interesting in seeing how it comes out. But do you really feel comfortable laying 230 on any team. Thats one play I would never make.

I really dont like laying more than -110 :>) I agree it is steep, but with Kershaw's last 7 starts (12 runs in 40 IP 2.70 ERA, his last game against SD, (7 inn, 0 runs 4 hits), SD bringing back AAA pitcher Leblanc, who got rocked by the Dodgers last year (13 runs in 12 innings), SD 8-20 on the road, Dodgers 23-8 at home. Dodgers a terrific 26-9 in their division, SD 16-18. These 2 teams are headed in opposite directions. In this case I feel the -230 is justified, but then again I'm only playing it for 1 unit.

:toast:

hustlehard · Jun 10, 2009

great concept.. ill be following.. debit card in hand.

hustlehard · Jun 10, 2009

just an idea.. maybe using the system for totals as well? if two teams percentages add up to certain amount bet over

JerseyShop101 · Jun 11, 2009

JerseyShop101 said:
REVISED:

Here are the June games (Innings Scored in divided by Innings played)

1-9 Jun 09
KAN 8--63 13% Won 9-0 KC Over 8.5
BAL 10--62 16% Lost 4-1 Sea Under 8.5
SDG 13--79 16% Won 3-1 LOS Under 8.5
WAS 12--63 19% Lost 4-2 Cin Under 9
DET 17--82 21% Won 2-1 CWS Under 8.5
ATL 16--73 22%
CIN 17--79 22%
CWS 20--90 22%
MIN 14--63 22%
SEA 14--63 22%
STL 18--81 22%
TEX 16--72 22%
LOS 17--74 23%
FLA 19--78 24%
OAK 19--80 24%
PIT 19--78 24%
ARI 18--72 25%
MIL 19--72 26%
SFO 19--72 26%
BOS 17--62 27%
CUB 18--66 27%
NYM 17--62 27%
TAM 17--63 27%
LAA 18--63 29% Lost 9-5 TB Over 9
NYY 21--71 30% Lost 6-5 Bos Push 11
HOU 23--74 31% Won 2-1 Cubs Under 8.5
CLE 20--62 32% Lost 9-0 KC Over 8.5
PHI 21--66 32% Won 5-4 NYM Over 8.5
TOR 23--72 32% PP
COL 19--54 35% Won 4-2 Milw Under 8.5
519--2111 25%

Today's Plays: (6% or more difference)

Colorado +120 Won 4-2 Milw
Toronto +149 PP
BEST BET - CLEVE -149 Lost 9-0 KC
Seattle -116 Won 4-1 Balt
Dodgers -230 Lost 3-1 SD
:toast:

6% went 2-2 -1.59 units

The totals for the lowest and the highest teams did well.
If you cancel out the KC/CLE game (because a low and high), the
LOWEST TEAMS Under went 4-0
HIGHEST TEAMS Over went 2-2-1
finishing 6-2-1 together.

I'll track this, testing the waters to see if any works well.
:toast:

JerseyShop101 · Jun 11, 2009

Updated thru 6/10.

　 #RunScInn Tot Inn %
KAN 11 72 0.15
BAL 11 71 0.15
SDG 15 88 0.17
WAS 13 75 0.17
CIN 19 91 0.21
DET 19 91 0.21
CWS 21 99 0.21

LOS 18 83 0.22
ATL 18 82 0.22
TEX 16 72 0.22
OAK 21 89 0.24
MIN 17 72 0.24
SEA 17 72 0.24
PIT 21 87 0.24
ARI 20 81 0.25
MIL 20 81 0.25
CUB 19 75 0.25
NYM 19 73 0.26
FLA 23 87 0.26
STL 24 90 0.27
SFO 22 81 0.27
LAA 20 72 0.28
CLE 20 71 0.28
TAM 20 71 0.28

BOS 21 70 0.30
HOU 25 83 0.30
PHI 24 77 0.31
NYY 25 80 0.31
TOR 23 72 0.32
COL 22 63 0.35
584 2371 0.25

6/11 PLAYS:

KC/CLEV UNDER 8
BAL/SEA UNDER 9
WAS/CINN UNDER 8.5 EV BEST BET
DET/CWS UNDER 8.5 EV BEST BET

BOS/NYY OVER 9.5 -115 BEST BET
HOU/CUBS OVER 9.5 -105
PHILLY/METS OVER 9.5 -105
TOR/TEX OVER 10
COL/MILW OVER 7.5 -105

COLORADO +165
SEATTLE +140
CLEVELAND +118
TORONTO +145

:toast:

JerseyShop101 · Jun 12, 2009

6/11 PLAYS:

KC/CLEV UNDER 8 WON
BAL/SEA UNDER 9 PUSH
WAS/CINN UNDER 8.5 EV BEST BET WON
DET/CWS UNDER 8.5 EV BEST BET WON
6/11 Unders 3-0-1 +3.00
6/10 Unders 4-0 +4.00
Total Unders 7-0-1 +7.00

BOS/NYY OVER 9.5 -115 BEST BET LOST
HOU/CUBS OVER 9.5 -105 LOST
PHILLY/METS OVER 9.5 -105 LOST
TOR/TEX OVER 10 LOST
COL/MILW OVER 7.5 -105 WON
6/11 Overs 1-4 -3.35
6/10 Overs 2-2-1 -0.20
Total Overs 3-6-1 -3.55

COLORADO +165 WON
SEATTLE +140 WON
CLEVELAND +118 WON
TORONTO +145 LOST
6/11 6% Plays 3-1 3.23
6/10 6% Plays 2-2 -1.59
Total 9% Plays 4-2 +2.94
Total 6% Plays 5-3 +1.64 (big diff is the LOS -230 loss)

Overall 15-9-2 +5.09

The Unders are doing great, the Overs might be a fade. 6% Plays on the winning track Thursday

:toast:

JerseyShop101 · Jun 12, 2009

Updated thru 6/11.
　 #RunScInn Tot Inn %
KAN 13 82 0.16
BAL 13 80 0.16
SDG 15 88 0.17
WAS 15 84 0.18
ATL 19 91 0.21
TEX 17 81 0.21
CIN 21 100 0.21
DET 21 100 0.21

LOS 18 83 0.22
MIN 18 81 0.22
CUB 20 88 0.23
CWS 25 108 0.23
ARI 21 90 0.23
OAK 23 97 0.24
PIT 23 96 0.24
NYM 20 82 0.24
MIL 22 90 0.24
SEA 20 81 0.25
SFO 23 90 0.26
LAA 21 81 0.26
STL 26 99 0.26
HOU 26 96 0.27
FLA 27 96 0.28
CLE 23 81 0.28
TOR 23 81 0.28

BOS 23 79 0.29
NYY 26 89 0.29
PHI 27 86 0.31
TAM 26 80 0.33
COL 26 72 0.36
641 2632 0.24

JerseyShop101 · Jun 12, 2009

6/12 PLAYS:

KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -110 BEST BET
BAL/ATL UNDER 9.5 +110 BEST BET
SD/LAA UNDER 9 +100
TEX/LOS UNDER 10 -105
DET/PITT UNDER 9 -120

BOS/PHILLY OVER 9.5 +105 BEST BET
NYY/NYM OVER 10.5 +100
COL/SEA OVER 9 -105

TAMPA BAY (15% diff) -245
COLORADO (11% diff) -152
LA ANGELS (9% diff) -144

Total Unders 7-0-1 +7.00
Total Overs 3-6-1 -3.55
Total 9% and Up Plays 4-2 +2.94
Total 6% and Up Plays 5-3 +1.64
Overall 15-9-2 +5.09

:toast:

JerseyShop101 · Jun 13, 2009

6/12 RESULTS:

KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -110 BEST BET 4-1 WINNER
BAL/ATL UNDER 9.5 +110 BEST BET 2-7 WINNER
SD/LAA UNDER 9 +100 6-11 LOST
TEX/LOS UNDER 10 -105 6-0 WINNER
DET/PITT UNDER 9 -120 3-1 WINNER

BOS/PHILLY OVER 9.5 +105 BEST BET 5-2 LOST
NYY/NYM OVER 10.5 +100 9-8 WINNER
COL/SEA OVER 9 -105 6-4 WINNER

TAMPA BAY (15% diff) -245 4-3 WINNER
COLORADO (11% diff) -152 6-4 WINNER
LA ANGELS (9% diff) -144 11-6 WINNER

A GREAT DAY!
Unders 4-1 +3.10
Overs 2-1 +1.00
Total 9% and Up Plays 3-0 +3.00
Total 6% and Up Plays 3-0 +3.00
Overall 9-2 +7.10

YTD:
Unders 11-1-1 +10.10
Overs 5-7-1 -2.55
Total 9% and Up Plays 7-2 +5.94
Total 6% and Up Plays 8-3 +4.64
Overall 24-11-2 +12.19

The Unders are just tearing it up 11-1-1 92%!!!!!

JerseyShop101 · Jun 13, 2009

#Scored Inn Tot Innings %
ATL 12 100 0.12
BAL 15 89 0.17
WAS 16 92 0.17
KAN 16 90 0.18
LOS 18 92 0.20
SDG 19 97 0.20
CIN 22 109 0.20
OAK 23 107 0.21
　　　
DET 24 109 0.22
CWS 26 117 0.22
TEX 20 89 0.22
CUB 22 97 0.23
PIT 24 105 0.23
MIL 24 98 0.24
SFO 24 98 0.24
MIN 23 90 0.26
SEA 23 90 0.26
HOU 28 105 0.27
ARI 26 97 0.27
STL 29 108 0.27
TOR 25 90 0.28
NYM 26 92 0.28
　　　
BOS 26 91 0.29
FLA 30 105 0.29
PHI 29 100 0.29
LAA 26 89 0.29
CLE 27 90 0.30
NYY 31 98 0.32
TAM 30 88 0.34
COL 30 80 0.38
714 2902 0.25

6/13 PLAYS:

ATL/BAL UNDER 9.5 -115 BEST BET
KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -110 BEST BET
LOS DODGERS/TEXAS UNDER 10 -120
OAK/SF UNDER 7.5 -120

BOS/PHILLY OVER 9.5 -115 BEST BET
FLA/TOR OVER 9 -110
CLE/STL OVER 10.5 +100
NYY/NYM OVER 11 -110
COL/SEA OVER Line not out yet

TAMPA BAY (17%) -155
COLORADO (12%) Line not out yet
LA ANGELS (9%) Line not out yet

YTD:
Unders 11-1-1 +10.10
Overs 5-7-1 -2.55
Total 9% and Up Plays 7-2 +5.94
Total 6% and Up Plays 8-3 +4.64
Overall 24-11-2 +12.19

:toast:

JerseyShop101 · Jun 13, 2009

Correction:

ATL is 23 100 0.23

Therefore ATL (6%) -117 is a play.
The Under remains a play also.

JerseyShop101 · Jun 14, 2009

6/13 RESULTS:

ATL/BAL UNDER 9.5 -115 BEST BET LOST
KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -110 BEST BET LOST
LOS DODGERS/TEXAS UNDER 10 -120 WINNER
OAK/SF UNDER 7.5 -120 WINNER

BOS/PHILLY OVER 9.5 -115 BEST BET WINNER
FLA/TOR OVER 9 -110 WINNER
CLE/STL OVER 10.5 +100 LOST
NYY/NYM OVER 11 -110 LOST
COL/SEA OVER 10 -110 LOST

TAMPA BAY (17%) -155 WINNER
COLORADO (12%) -181 WINNER
LA ANGELS (9%) -230 WINNER
ATLANTA (6%) -117 LOST

6/13 Results Breakdown:
Unders 2-2 - 0.25
Overs 2-3 -1.20
9% and Up Plays 3-0 +3.00
6% and Up Plays 3-1 +1.83
Overall 7-6 +0.38

YTD:
Unders 13-3-1 81% +9.85
Overs 7-10-1 41% -3.75
9% and Up Plays 10-2 83% +8.94
6% and Up Plays 11-4 73% +6.47
Overall 31-17-2 65% +12.57

If I dropped the Over Plays, I'd be 24-7-1 77% +16.32 in just 4 days.

:toast:

Michelangelo · Jun 14, 2009

Great job JS.

Keep trackin'. Think you're on to a winning formula.

JerseyShop101 · Jun 14, 2009

Thanks Michelangelo,

I was thinking about just using the stats for the last 100 or so innings played, but I will just keep it tallying up for now.

From now on, I will only play on my System OVERs if the line is 9 or less. In the Overs where the line was 9 or less I went 5-2 (where the line was 9.5 and higher I went a terrible 2-8-1).

Doing the stats shortly for Sunday's games.

:toast: