thefriedone's "score in first inning" system

[thefriedone]

Ok, I've been tracking this offline for about a week with good success, so I'm going to start posting picks. The basic idea of the system is to average each team's first inning run scoring percentage with the opposing pitcher's first inning run allowance. The numbers I am working with so far provide about 3-5 plays per day most days. Here we go! d1g1t

0-0 (0 units) YTD

Today's plays:

FLA/NYM - YES (-105)
HOU/PIT - YES (-125)
SD/COL - NO (+110)

The actual odds you are getting for each play is not very relevant, so just use whatever you can get. I am posting the numbers I get for tracking purposes. All plays are to win one unit (faves) or risking one unit (dogs).

 

[thefriedone]

FLA/NYM - YES (-105) loss
HOU/PIT - YES (-125) win
SD/COL - NO (+110) win

2-1 (+1.05 units) after day 1 <<

 

[SpreadOffense]

Just a piece of advice, and don't take this the wrong way, I would advise looking at the umps in these games. Think you got lucky in the Houston game with Hirsch behind the plate..

 

[1sob]

congrats

 

[thefriedone]

Four plays tonight:

NYM/PIT - YES (-120)
MIL/FLA - YES (-125)
CIN/STL - YES (-110)
PHI/SDG - NO (-125)

 

[thefriedone]

NYM/PIT - YES (-120) loss
MIL/FLA - YES (-125) win
CIN/STL - YES (-110) win
PHI/SDG - NO (-125) win

3-1 (+1.8 units) on the night

Overall record now stands at 5-2 (+2.85 units)

 

[thefriedone]

Just one play tonight

MIL/FLA - YES (-130)

 

[thefriedone]

MIL/FLA - YES (-130) loss

0-1 (-1.3 units) on the night

Overall 5-3 (+1.55 units)

 

[thefriedone]

Posting one 7:00 play right before game time:

LAA/TOR - NO (-125)

Likely more to come in a few...

 

[thefriedone]

Just one more play for the night:

ARI/LAD - NO (-125)

 

[thefriedone]

LAA/TOR - NO (-125) loss
ARI/LAD - NO (-125) win

1-1 (-.25 units) on the night

YTD record 6-4 (+1.3 units)

 

[thefriedone]

Welp, forgot to crunch the numbers before I left for work this morning, so only night games for today.

Plays:

SFG/WAS - NO (-125)
COL/HOU - YES (-130)
STL scores first (-120)

I checked what my plays on the day games would have been, just for fun, and I would have gone 2-0 so far on the day... doh!

 

[thefriedone]

Ugh, bad luck missing those day game plays. Will try not to do that again in the future!

SFG/WAS - NO (-125) loss
COL/HOU - YES (-130) loss
STL scores first (-120) win

1-2 (-1.55 units) tonight

Overall 7-6 (-0.25 units). I'm starting to see how the juice on these bets is gonna be rough since the system usually picks the favorite outcome.

 

[thefriedone]

Alright, hoping to get back on track with FIVE plays tonight:

SFG/FLA - YES (-115)
TEX/BOS - YES (-130)
PIT/HOU - YES (-130)
MIN/SEA - NO (-120)
COL/STL - NO (-125)

 

[thefriedone]

SFG/FLA - YES (-115) loss
TEX/BOS - YES (-130) loss
PIT/HOU - YES (-130) loss
MIN/SEA - NO (-120) win
COL/STL - NO (-125) win

hno: Another losing day 2-3 (-1.75 units)

Overall 9-9 (-2 units)

 

[SpartyCj]

I really like the picks man, and I have actually been folowing them because God knows how much stress is avoided with only 1 inning, but do you think you'd have better results playing 2 or 3 picks a day maybe? Or tightening up the system even more?

Im probably completely wrong I just know the first day you hit 2 out of 3.

 

[thefriedone]

Thanks for the comment, Sparty. After this week's results I was also thinking about adjusting the thresholds for plays a bit, which I have done starting with today's plays. The adjustment weeded out one or two borderline bets today, so hopefully that will be for the better.

I may also try to come up with some sort of unit rating system for the plays as well, instead of flat betting everything. But I feel like I need to let the standard system play out for a little while longer before I get a sense for what the higher probability bets are.

Today's Plays:

MIN/SEA - NO (-135)
SFG/FLA - YES (-120)
ARI/SDG - NO (-130)

 

[thefriedone]

MIN/SEA - NO (-135) win
SFG/FLA - YES (-120) loss
ARI/SDG - NO (-130) loss

1-2 (-1.5 units) on the day

now overall 10-11 (-3.5 units)

I'm definitely going to tweak my system some more. I will probably change it so that pitching (runs allowed in first inning) is weighted more heavily than offensive production in the first inning.

 

[thefriedone]

Two plays today:

CHC/CIN - YES (-115)
MIN/SEA - NO (-135)

 

[thefriedone]

Can't seem to put together a winning day anymore...

CHC/CIN - YES (-115) win
MIN/SEA - NO (-135) los

1-1 (-0.35 units) on the day

Overall 11-12 (-3.85 units)