THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HANDICAPPING?

Marco · Jul 29, 2004

wantitall4moi.....I wasn't the one who made first comment on your initial post that was quoted....I think that was Pancho...

I will agree with your statement as far as ignoring the line and betting on the team that one perceives to be the straight up winner...

If one says that it doesn't make a difference whether he gets another half point....yeah, it doesn't make a difference if the final score is nowhere near the pointspread, but what happens when you're laying 4 and you could have gotten the same team at 3.5 a few hours earlier? It happened to me during college basketball...the final score had the favorite winning by 4, so I had a push....others who got in earlier at -3.5 or less got a winner, those who got in later than me at -4.5 got a loser.

It doesn't happen much...I think your stats are generally correct as to the frequency of it happening, but if I pick out the game like I mentioned that ended on 4, then it happened to me, regardless the rarity of such event...I had a tie and could have had a winner.

Half points don't come into effect very often, but it's enough to beat a card that went 4-0 into a 3-1 card and cut the profit in half...

Rio had an 8 posted on that one Lakers/Detroit game that pushed...only thing is the people who bet that game at +8.5 and -7.5, using the free half point, all who had those lines listed won thier collective wagers and Rio got middled out.

It doesn't effect the outcome many times, but a bettor still has to get the best number that favors his position on a game.

NICKYTHEFISH · Jul 29, 2004

This is just my opinion but knowing some of Billy Walters plays will win you shit.I know a couple movers in Vegas and they do not even bet the plays when they come in.He plays a lot of games and even his movers don't know which are fakes unless they get the order to go and bet the other side.Just my opinion but you would need ALL his plays to be successful betting what he is and even then chances are you will be getting the worst of the number.Just having contact with one of his movers and getting the plays that the mover is getting is just not good enough.

RobFunk · Jul 29, 2004

exactly nicky, he does stuff with the line the conventional bettor couldnt dream of and this is a reason following his stuff will get you no where.

Fishhead · Jul 29, 2004

DAMN IT GUYS!!

I WILL OPENLY TALK TO ANYBODY AT THE BASH IF THEY WANT TO KNOW THE SECRETS OF WINNING IN THE NFL.

THE SHRINK · Jul 29, 2004

Rob,

Maybe if you listened more and talked less, you'd learn a whole lot more about this industry and sports betting in general...

If you don't understand what Walk of Life was getting at, then ask him because you are entirely misinformed...

Now leave me the hell alone about the Lakers, because I think I will stop posting plays on here altogether.

It's knuckleheads like you that haven't been around long enough to know that overall, my posted plays have done quite well over the years...

I have nothing to gain but this abuse when I am wrong, so don't worry about me posting ANY plays for a long time, if then!

THE SHRINK

D2bets · Jul 29, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by THE SHRINK:
Rob,

Now leave me the hell alone about the Lakers, because I think I will stop posting plays on here altogether.

THE SHRINK <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Wahhhhhh. You should stop posting plays. You threw out the window any credibility that you might have had when you called the Lakers a 100% mortal lock. When you lose a 100% mortal lock, you lose it all.

And I'm wondering, if knowing BW's plays is the #1 handicapping factor, what will be the #1 factor after BW dies (or stops gambling for some reason)? Should we all just quit betting then?

THE SHRINK · Jul 29, 2004

D2bets,

I was playing around with the terminology and should not have used that word...

I thought people in the know would understand...

Guess that does not include you...

I am not worried about credibility with plays because I won't be posting them...

Ken

randyrohm · Jul 29, 2004

If you work a reg job and want to have a life, the only way to cap is the line and your gut. GL2U

SportSavant · Jul 29, 2004

now now shrink, a simple post in the particular sports forum is more than appreciated by all....

wilheim · Jul 29, 2004

D2, as you well know NO ONE wins them all including BW or Shrink. I have been around computer group or BW plays since the 80's and the real problem is getting a decent number. The race for the next number after a play hits DB is brutal, bottom line his stuff is very difficult to play. As far as Shrink goes I reall y believe he posts plays he bets heavily on, we both know there is no such thing a a guarantee or lock as do most if not all Rxers. Personally I hope he continues to post plays this fall, especially college basketball, the stuff that I did well with last year. Mortal
locks, 5 star plays, A plays, PODs, call them what you want they are very simply someone's opinion, someone who has nothing to gain except abuse if they lose. This is a gambling forum why not post plays and let your record speak for itself. We all remember the Lakers play by Shrink but the truth is the Offshore Forums was full of talk about how the Lakers couldn't lose, but now it is all about Shrink. Everyone needs to get over that Lakers play and look forward to what should be a great fall and winter betting both football and basketball. I hope you and the rest of the Rx. have a great season. I will do everything I can to help.

wil.

SportSavant · Jul 29, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> D2, as you well know NO ONE wins them all including BW or Shrink. I have been around computer group or BW plays since the 80's and the real problem is getting a decent number. The race of the next number after a play hits DB is brutal, bottom line his stuff is very difficult to play. As far as Shrink goes I reall y believe he posts plays he bets heavily on, we both know there is no such thing a a guarantee or lock as do most if not all Rxers. Personally I hope he continues to post plays this fall, especially college basketball, his stuffI did well with them last year. Mortals locks, 5stars, A plays, PODs, call them what you want they are very simply someone's opinion, someone who has nothing to gain except abuse if they lose. This is a gambling forum why not post plays and let your record speak for itself. We all remember the Lakers play by Shrink but the truth is the Offshore Forums was full of talk about how the Lakers couldn't lose, but now it is all about Shrink. Everyone needs to get over that Lakers play and look forward to what should be a great fall and winter betting both football and basketball. I hope you and the rest of the Rx. have a great season. I will do everything I can to help.

wil <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

amen

lets stop being a bunch of sissies & concentrate on the important... $$$$

RobFunk · Jul 29, 2004

I definatly wasnt picking on the Lakers play itself. I even said I believed him in the point buying more than once at that time, my comments really wasnt even about the play. .I wont bring up the dirty 'L word' again

I was more less refering to what surrounded it.

I'm only saying you shouldnt put some guy's picks and wether or not you agree with them as your top capping tool. But I won't stand by that if it means bad vibes. I guess I am barking up the wrong tree here, and being knuckleheaded as Shrink says. .But I'm off the issue, I'm not about fighting.

I'll chose my words more wisely from now on in these types of threads, really I was just trying to get a discussion going on certain points. But if the man feels he is that right and no second guessing, than so be it. I will be good

THE SHRINK · Jul 29, 2004

Rob,

You were a bit too harsh and I reacted back to that...

Let's just say I wish you well in your gambling and hopefully, you will learn more because of the many great posters we have...

I just won't be posting my bets on this site as it is frustrating to read ignorant comments from people not in the know...

Ken

RobFunk · Jul 29, 2004

what?! you got to post those plays baby! when you got it going in college hoops and football some would see it automatic the other way, but you came through and who is going to argue that. . so center stage fell on the NBA one of the toughest things to cap, and some controversy fell on a game involving a 1 pt differential. .big whoop. . .the true followers know the deal, dont respond to this you dont need some robfunk rooting you on, just come football and you feel like tossing some plays out why shy away you got enough backers that know and believe. . .even you know who had a tough time with SA futures, then I got screwed pretty good when I went op-o of him 2 times in a row. . put the picks out put the picks out

vinividivinci · Jul 29, 2004

The single biggest key to winning a football game is to win the battle of turnovers and have the best "special teams" play. Just ask any NFL or College football coach if you are hesitant to take my word.

This does not take into account the spread, of course, but I suspect one would not often need to be concerned about the spread if these two objectives are accomplished.

VVV

vinividivinci · Jul 29, 2004

Perhaps someone who really wants to know can research the ats winning % of the team that wins the turnover statistic. I believe it will be substantial.

VVV

TheGeneral+ · Jul 29, 2004

As long as refs can call a block in the back 50 yds away from the ball carrier on kickoffs and punts, forget about it.

X-Files · Jul 29, 2004

Biggest factor? A wild guess...

Betting Champion Plays 5* plays that claim to
hit ~66%.

vinividivinci · Jul 29, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by The General:
As long as refs can call a block in the back 50 yds away from the ball carrier on kickoffs and punts, forget about it. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

General

No question, if one was to believe the outcome of a wager could be "influenced" the officials would be the ones with the greatest opportunity. This is especially true in totals betting, really in most every sport. If there is corruption in sports regarding gambling, this should be the first place to look.

VVV

panther · Jul 29, 2004

finding lines off the mark is why handicappers put all the work in and put the info together.

the linesmaker puts out a # on what they think the public thinks line should be.

if not for this would you not be as well off just fliping a coin

panther