Nats NATIONALS SEASON PREVIEW:
Nationals over 92 -110
In my opinion, this is the best team in the National League. They outscored their opponents by 137 runs last year, by far the best in the National League. The pitching allowed only 594 runs, second in the league behind the Reds. They also had a top-five offense in the league, despite playing a month without Bryce Harper, and two months without Jayson Werth and Michael Morse. The biggest weak spot in the lineup has been addressed. These Nats are scary good.
More importantly, they are built to win a lot of games during the regular season. The reason they are built this way, and the primary reason I expect them to win a lot of games is the rotation. Every spot in the Nats rotation is filled by a pitcher who is either better than or as good as each spot in the rotation. For example, Stephen Strasburg is one of the top pitchers in the game (obviously) and qualifies as one of the top “number ones”. That translates through the entire rotation, with Gio Gonzales a top number two, Jordan Zimmerman a top number three, Dan Haran (if he is healthy) one of the top fours in the league, and Ross Detwiler as good as any fifth starter in baseball. There won’t be many days where the opposition will start a better pitcher than the Nationals. Even on those odd days where the nationals fourth or fifth starter goes against the opposition’s number one, the Nats will barely be outgunned, if at all.
The Nationals were extremely fortunate in 2012, as they got at least 27 starts from each member of the rotation. Even with Strasburg being shut down in late August, he started 28 games. They probably won’t be as fortunate this year, as Dan Haren’s injury history makes 30 starts look dubious. Strasburg being in only his second season back off the surgery, will probably see a few extra days rest. Although the official word is that the restrictions on Strasburg are gone, it’s hard to believe they’ll let him approach 230 innings. The starting pitching depth was hurt over the winter, as Tom Gorzelanny, Edwin Jackson and John Lannon all left as free agents. The Nats will need their pictures to remain healthy, as there isn’t a ton of depth. They like Christian Garcia, who got a cup of coffee in 2012, and they signed Chris Young and Ross Ohlendorf as free agents. But clearly, the quality is in the starting five.
One of the team’s biggest strengths in 2012 was the bullpen. They really strengthened it this year by adding Rafael Soriano, who will probably pitch the ninth inning. That means that unlike most teams, the nationals are loaded for the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings with Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, Ryan Matheus. Henry Rodriguez and Craig Stammen. That is one fine collection of arms. There is however one glaring weakness. The only lefty in the bullpen as of right now is Zach Duke. For some reason, they allowed Sean Burnett to leave as a free agent. In a division with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, I Davis, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward, a left-handed specialist to get these guys in a big spot is a necessity. I cannot even imagine the Nets go into the season without picking up a solid left-handed arm for the bullpen.
The Nationals are obviously built to win with pitching, but the lineup is also very good. The biggest hole last year was the leadoff spot. That has been addressed with the acquisition of Denard Span from the Minnesota Twins. Span scored 71 runs last year despite missing 35 games. His on-base percentage was over .340. He struck out only 62 times in over 500 at bats. With his ability to get on base, he will improve this lineup tremendously. Bryce Harper now fits comfortably in the two hole, and there will be plenty of base runners for Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche and Jayson Werth. Michael Morse will be missed, but Jayson Werth moves down to the number five hole, where he had a lot of success in Philadelphia. Now that the team is winning the pressure on worth to fulfill his contract is gone. The double-play combination of Ian Desmond and Danny Esposito will hit sixth and seventh. There is also decent depth on the bench with Tyler Moore, Roger Bernadino and Chad Tracy.
Although the nationals were a top-five offense in 2012, nobody other than Adam LaRoche had what could be considered a career year. Other than LaRoche and Danny Esposito, no one played in more than 145 games. Bryce Harper probably avoids the sophomore slump, Werth moves to a more comfortable position in the lineup, and all of the young players have another year’s experience. None of the regulars had an OPS over .855. This is still a young team and there is plenty of room to get better.
Last year’s outfield defense was a train wreck, but that was addressed by the acquisition of Denard Span from the Twins. With Span in centerfield and Bryce Harper moving to left, the outfield defense should be much improved. Overall the defense should not be a problem. The infield defense is underrated as all four spots are slightly above average.
The schedule isn’t bad as they play most of the AL Central and of course the Orioles in interleague matchups. The division includes the Marlins and Mets. The nationals were fortunate in 2012 as they lost very few men games to injury. If the team’s health holds up through the season, I fully expect this team to challenge 100 wins again.