Tennis Miami - Leviathan

[Hope1]

good day for you, Levi

:toast:

nice write-up.

Gaudio Vs Soderling.......which nutcase will cave first.....:missingte , it takes a brave soul to bet on this match

I like your reasonign on Max, definite games line play for me if the price is right. He leads h2h, 2-0. He's not in dooubles this week, hence full attention to singles and Canas hasnt played since Miami!! He may get out of the gates slowly.......

gl tomm

Safin shouldn't be a -300 to anyone, nowadays

Nalbandian? :realtongu ......not sure why he's even here, guess the underachiever feels he needs matches in. Martin can give him fits, ALberto has been in fine form since he hit the dirt.

will be interesting to see the level of some of the big favs given Rome is next week. Davy? dreadfull form. Almagro? will he press if he's hurt with a TMS around the corner? Aging Moya to save himself for Rome, or full effort on home soil?

 

[Hope1]

actually inaccurate on my part--Rome is NOT next week. Forget that last paragraph, it's rubbish:missingte

Moya and Almagro enter with a cloud of injury, but given both are on home soil, i'd assume effort to the max? Moya really looked bad Vs Mikhail last week before havign to quit.

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks for your thoughts Hope. I see them very usefull.

Safin's odd is low but can't see him Bolelli beating him if Safin is taking this seriously but can you say serious and Safin in the same sentence? I agree with you that there is value with Bolelli but for me it is no bet until the match starts. Bolelli has had no much hard opponents. Last year he won Calleri, Del Potro and Vassallo Arguello on clay all on the same challenger tournament, impressive, and this year injured? Monfils and Tursunov at Miami what was a very slow surface so definately has chances and clay for him seems to be the best surface.

Current condition of Moya and Almagro is mystery for me. Moya had problems with left adductor and Almagro had mystery illness, maby same what Volandri had? Usually trying to stay away from the matches what is involving lately injured player as a heavy favourite at least what comes betting the favourite. Fognini is not a bad player but he is no class yet imo at least he came nicely trough qualies and you can heal from illness in a week or can you? Moya had problems with his left foot so for me it sounds reasonable that he might have problems when he must move to the left and Pujols is then able to do some damage for his backhand and because this is clay it takes extra effort for Moya. Best bet would be for one ball rule bet company but I am taking this to Betfair with one set rule. Pujols showed some good stuff in Valencia and when you will add that Moya is very on or off player you will start to like possibilities of Pujols.

Head to head between Canas and Mirnyi is actually 1-2. They have played on clay 1999 at Bermuda Open which Canas won 6-0, 6-2. Scary result but eight years is a long time.

 

[rhinooooo]

:lol:Gaudio lost... 6-0, 6-1 :lol:

Nice pick on Soderling! I should have steered clear of these crazy bastards...

 

[Leviathan]

Soderling was good win but Nalbandian demolished Martin and Mirnyi was able to one tiebreak and lost that.

Safin shouldn't be a -300 to anyone, nowadays

After yesterday you can not say enything else.

For today I have two medium stake bets and both starting soon. Nieminen -185 over Seppi and Starace -169 over Bolelli. Nieminen can chance the tempo of the match and this will be very hard for Seppi and yesterday Starace's odds were less than -200 but now people are starting to like Bolelli because he beated Safin so I will go to the opposite direction and I will choose Starace.

GL

 

[Hope1]

easy 2-0 day for you, Levi. Looks like you're having a cracker of a week!!!!

congrats!

:toast:

Soderling over Gaudio 6-0,6-1........Gaudio is getting primed for Roland Garros....:missingte

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks Hope. Both players were a break down in the first set but both made fast rebreaks. :toast:

I see nothing special for thursday. Hernandez and Nieminen have never met before and I do not believe that Hernandez has bigger problems with lefties but Nieminen is pure class over Hernandez. Hernandez has beaten so far Tursunov and Becker who are pretty bad on clay. Nieminen is playing sometimes very well but sometimes he loses his matches almost without help. Last year in Nieminen's last match at Barcelona he won the first set against Nadal and was a break up in the second but then Rafa showed his power. Nieminen's first serve % against Seppi was 50% when Hernandez had in his two matches 68% and 72% so this might do the game little more equal than it should be. Hernandez with small stake +263.

Ferrer usually plays very well and sometimes he gets surprising losses and now he is in his homeland but he has only 4-4 record at Barcelona so far. Winning Goldstein 6-0, 6-0 was nice but you all know that Goldstein is from the promiseland of the claycourts. +1200 for Pashanski is definately value, with very small stake.

Played also Tipsarevic +250 over Acasuso, small stake. Montanes is having a better year than before and +203 sounds good but he has played five times on clay against Massu and has got only one set in those matches so that is scaring me away from this.

I am going for a trip so no bets from me for a some time.

GL

 

[Leviathan]

Guillermo Garzia-Lopez -145 over Dmitri Tursunov. I am trusting the rain has slowed the courts enough so there should be no advantage for Dmitri who usually sucks on clay. Guillermo has very good record from here 6-2 and his losses have came against Moya and Gaudio. Last year Guillermo was in quarterfinals in this tournament so he has points to defend and I believe he really wants to do some good stuff here this year too. Guillermo is on the qualifying entry list to Rome but he still can go there if he wins this match and he has much better possibilities to get some success here so I think he will play as well as he can, no matter what happens. They have met twice before and both meetings have been three setters, one on hard for Dmitri and one on clay for Guillermo. Stakes 6/10 for me.

Also played Brands over Waske +340. Brands is pretty unknown player for me but against Waske you don't have to be an ace before there is some value with odds like that on this surface. I heard Waske was pretty bad yesterday against Stepanek but Stepanek was just worse so I think this is worth of a shot with small stakes.

GL

 

[Leviathan]

Guillermo had easy win and Brands was able to force Waske to two tiebreaks but lost both.

The price of Jarkko Nieminen has came up and is now +100 and that is good enough for me with 7/10. There is reasons why people are playing Kohl. He won their last meeting on clay 2-1 and won the points 87-66. He has been playing pretty good lately when Jarkko has been missing the last part of his game but there is much more reasons for me why Jarkko should win this game. This tournament is important for him even the tournament of Rome is coming. Last year and year before that he was in the semifinals and 2003 he was in the final, his overall now in Munich is 14-3, losses for Federer, Nalbandian and Vliegen, against Vliegen he has 0-3 head to head record so there propably is something what he can do against Nieminen. Kohl is 6-5 in Munich and he has improved his game but his results on clay so far are a bit missleading. In Monte Carlo he was losing for Nalbandian until Dave hurted his back and after that he almost lost for Garzia-Lopez. Their overall head to head record is 4-1 for Jarkko and Kohl has had problems with his first serve percentage against him. In their four first meetings Kohl's serve was in every game about 10% less than Jarkko's. In their last meeting it was about 10% advantage for Kohl and he kept very impressively his first serve 85% what is pretty amazing against Jarkko who is a good serve returner on clay. For example Federer was able to keep his first serve as 75% when he beated Jarkko in the final 2003 6-1, 6-4 so I think Jarkko had not everything ok when they met last time. Kohl has been serving pretty well, his first serve percentage has been between 60% and 70% when Nieminen has had some problems but in the first round agaist Schuettler his percentage was 71% what is a promise of a better. I am not so sure if Nieminen wins this match but he should be clear favourite in this match. One nice stat for Nieminen is that he is 5-0 in Germany against hosts on clay, his same record is 9-1 on all surfaces. There is also some bad record for Jarkko, Kohl is playing in his homeland and Nieminen is 4-10 on all surfaces against hosts who are on the top 50 and 0-3 on the clay. Let's hope he makes the stat mentioned earlier to 6-0.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Nice hit on GGL. I agree with Nieminen, will probably be playing it. Good luck bro!

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks Rhino.

Also taking O.Patience -104 over V.Spadea. I think the line might have been bigger when it opened but this is good enough for me with 3/10 stakes. Spadea on clay at Europe has been like "give me Gabashvili so I will kick his ass". He has beaten Gabashvili twice in two weeks, both three setters and is in a pretty good shape but after all he is not so good on clay even he has showed it is not like you can automatically play against him because he can be dangerous. Patience has played mostly challengers but he is a clay player and should be far more dangerous than Gabashvili. The conditions at Estoril have been fast lately but I trust the rain has taken it away enough that Patience should be favoured more. Spadea is also taking part to the qualies of the Rome but I think if he has a possibility to win here he would take that but if he is losing the game early he might give up easier than usually.

GL

 

[Leviathan]

Nieminen and Pashanski both lost their matches. Pashanski had some chances and Nieminen made break in the first game of the match but that was pretty much all he did. Kohl playing nicely right now but I have to say Nieminen really has something wrong in his game right now.

For today I have played Del Potro to beat Calleri because his odds have risen to +205, small stakes. For tomorrow I see small chances with Garzia-Lopez +475 but not so sure yet if I am playing it. Baghdatis might have good chances against Waske but not so intrested in his odds -196. Melzer +148 over Youzhny is a game for me. Good head to head record against Youzhny who has had good year so far but have not played so well lately. Melzer as a good returner is capable to force Youzhny to easy errors and Melzer also playing in his homeland. I see this match to be pretty even Youzhny slightly favoured. Stake 4/10 for me.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Definitely with you on Melzer. Also thinking about GG Lopez but I'll leave that decision for tomorrow.

Good luck

 

[Hope1]

gl with Melzer. HUGE line move on the Arn/Arvidsson match, really strange given what Sofia has done here, i don't get it:think2:

 

[Leviathan]

I think Arn should be favourite in this as she is. Sofia very bad player on clay and nice results so far but her opponents have not been great clay players either. Ok, Poutchkova who retired but Piedade 2-10 last year in challengers on clay. Sofia had nice Fed Cup on clay but look at the players she was playing against. Arn is no clay specialist either but she has played much on clay this year and I think she is class enough to beat Sofia.

Maby oddsmakers were looking too much to their records and not who they have played against and now the odds are more like they should be but there is one thing what makes me wonder too these odds and it is that this will be Arn's tenth game in two weeks. Arn definately has the momentum right now but we will see...

Melzer losing his game right now.

 

[Leviathan]

I am playing against Baghdatis for tomorrow. What a performance against Waske, he almost lost. Waske had all the chances in the second set but no and I think Waske is very weak on this surface even he played in his homeland. Then if we think about Kohl who is in great shape and all the momentum is on his side in this match. Bagdy seems to be the man in big tournaments but I don't know if he is anymore so potential as he was some time ago. Great fighter as we saw today and yesterday too when he lost the first set for Bachinger and all but this is not his surface. They have met twice earlier, a year ago on grass which Kohl retired and at the start of this season at Doha which Bagdy won in straight sets 6-4, 7-5 but won only 5 more points than Kohl. Bagdy had only 36% first serve percentage in that match but this is definately different match. The odds are only -158, I was hoping better but I am very confident with this, high stakes. Go Phillip.

Other match I am intrested in is Robrodo against Djokovic. Robredo has 3-11 record against top 25 in his last fourteen matches and I can't see much weapons how he would be able to hurt Djokovic but still I am thinking about playing him. Djokovic had thight match today against Lopez which he eventually won but in the last set he kept injurybreak when Lopez was leading 2-1 and situation was on Djoko's serve 40-40 after he had saved some breakpoints. He's blood pressure was checked, he had breathing problems and it seemed like he had some problems with his back too. After about 15-20 minutes he came back, kept his serve and broke Lopez in the next service game...just like what usually happens in the WTA matches but Djokovic has had these problems earlier too and I believe he is not going to give his all tomorrow so that will give some good chances for Robredo and considering this Robredo should be slight favourite but thinking Djoko might be the favourite in the odds. Anything over +100 for Robredo is value imo.

GL


By the way our hero Gaston Gaudio is thinking to retire his career because he thinks he can not play anymore on the level his opponents are playing. At least he is not taking part to the remaining european clay season.
:nopityA:

 

[TheBrainiac]

I like Kohlschreiber , Berdych and Robredo tomorrow .

 

[rhinooooo]

Good Luck Levi. I think you're wise to fade Novak tomorrow due to the supposed injury problems. I just don't feel I can back Robredo though. He hasn't really got into form for clay court season.

Kohli is doing brilliant the last few weeks.

As for Gaston; that guy has serious mental issues. I read that he'll be training to participate in some of the big upcoming clay tournaments, to give it one last shot and see if he still loves the game. I hope the guy can sort out his problems.

 

[Leviathan]

Robredo had chances to win the first set but no chances against Djokovic eventually. I did not see the match but propably Djokovic had no problems which I suspected he would have.

Azarenka has done very nice work so far but her odds are a bit low against Arn tomorrow. Kohl is other player who has the momentum right now and I took him +153 at Betfair with medium stake. They have played once before and Kohl won their meeting on carpet in straight sets and I think Kohl was then simply better. I can see easy win for Kohl if he plays like he has played but that russian is very dangerous like we saw today against Berdych but he has now beaten Birdie three times this year. I am trying to watch the match between Kohl and Youzhny from right and left and up and down but really can not see a reason why Kohl has so high odds. Is he so much underrated? Maby it is hard to believe how well Kohl is suddenly playing, at least it is for me but he has been a different player recently compared to the past. If I can not find anything what scares me I will put more money on this. Right now I believe this should be at least 50-50 match.

GL

 

[Leviathan]

As for Gaston; that guy has serious mental issues. I read that he'll be training to participate in some of the big upcoming clay tournaments, to give it one last shot and see if he still loves the game. I hope the guy can sort out his problems.

Yes, Goston is playing at Rome and in the first round he will be playing against Fish who is very bad on clay. Very intresting match and waiting to see the odds. Will it end 6-0, 6-0 or 0-6, 0-6 :missingte

Seriously Fish should be good opponent for Gaudio and I think Gaudio should be favourite neverthless his recent performances.