Tennis Miami - Leviathan

[Hope1]

Yes, Goston is playing at Rome and in the first round he will be playing against Fish who is very bad on clay. Very intresting match and waiting to see the odds. Will it end 6-0, 6-0 or 0-6, 0-6 :missingte

uppy:

agree with on you on Azarenka. Cannot see her losing tomm, given what she has done this week--the FOUR opponents she beat (all in straights I might add) are better than Arn. This should be her first WTA title tomm (she does have a doubles title with Poutchek in '06). I can't lay that much juice, so its parlay material --nothing to parlay with tho, lol.

here's some info for TMS Rome:
-firstly, the next 3 big clay events are-- Rome, then Hamburg then Roland Garros. Of these three, Hamburg is traditionally the slowest surface, and Rome is the fastest. RG somewhere in between
- over the last decade , 43% of qualifiers have gotten past the first round
- some notable career records at Rome:
C Moya-- 20-10
T Haas-- in questionable form at the momemt, is 9-8 BUT has NOT gotten past the first round in his last 3 visits to Rome, ouch
T Henman-- 12-10, amazingly he has gotten to the 3rd rd in his last 3 visits here. I can't see him doing that this time, lol. He has served AWFUL ytd. He has a date with Almagro in the first round, gl Tim you're going to need it.
J C Ferrero- 13-4, draws Hrbaty in round 1, should have little problems moving on
Nadal-- 12-0 :missingte ....the two-time defending champion. Who can forget those UNBELIEVABLE finals he was involved in-- '05 a 5-set thing of beauty with Coria, havign to rally in that decisive set. Then last yr, with Federer blowing two match (ont Roger's forehand, both ue's) points in the 5th, Nadal survives.
A Roddick-- 10-5, pretty impresive. These courts are on the faster side which likely explains this. He will play the winner of the Fish/Gaudio match
F Volandri-- the hometown boy has gotten past the 1st rd last 4 trips here
O Rochus-- 0-3:think2: , he has drawn a qualifier
R Soderling-- 0-2, plast Benjamin Becker, surely he'll make it 1-2, no?
D Tursunov-- 0-2, he has drawn Bjorkman

gotta like Nadal's draw, good grief. Federer's is much tougher. Likely Almagro followed by Gasquet, yikes two tough opponents rigth off the bat.


Ladies at Berlin and Prague, the former being a Tier 1 event.

Serena had to pull out, ate too many hot dogs on the flight over. Hingis makes her return

K Srebotnik Vs M Tu-- very good value play here on Tu, damn this girl has been impressive on the dirt, gave Dementieva fits at Warsaw. Katerina's form is in question.

M Kirilinko Vs N Li-- poor Maria, my goodness how she has fallen. She has lost in consecutive tournamnts (clay) in the first round to the likes of Kremer and Ozegovic......:think2: . I feel sorry for her, her father is ruining her career. She desperately has to get rid of him and get a coach. Ever since ealry '06 when Yuri took over she has been steadily goign down hill---doesn't this guy see this?? ......a sad waste of talent.....How the hell is she gogin to beat Li?

 

[Leviathan]

I can't lay that much juice, so its parlay material --nothing to parlay with tho, lol.

Of course you could bet Azarenka now as a single and later bet all the money won for someone else and that would be as a parlay but selfmade.

Great info, thanks. No odds yet in my bookies so definately seriously thinking about 5dimes.

Totally agree with Li but I was not aware about her father. It always scares me to bet an american on clay but on this surface I think she will win. I don't know how good she was against Dementieva but when I think about Dementieva's serves I am not so surprised she loses a set for anybody but she is so good in rallies.

Why these "specialists" of the clay are almost always playing against each others on the first round? Bjorkman is 4-9 in Rome but three of his matches were won 1995 so after that he is 1-9. Maby this is a chance for Tursunov to take his first win here considering he played pretty well in US claycourts.

Benjamin has gotten his serves better now but Soderling has his groundstrokes what should be enough...if it does not go into the tiebreak, Soderling many times has lost his nerves in those.

Youzhny now in the final and 1-4 at Rome against Benneteau who is 4-1 at Rome...tasty surprise?

Nieminen against top 25 player who against he is 9-26 from 2005 and Berdych had pretty good tournament.

Moya kicks the ass of Baghdatis? Moya already won Baghdatis on hard at Sydney in three setter this year.

Ginepri (1-2 at Rome) - Bracciali (0-2 ar Rome), what a match. Bracciali this year 4-12 and one match on clay and Ginepri 4-11 and in his last seven 1-6 and on the european clay his lifetime record is 6-12. Very intresting to see the odds.

Hopefully we will get some profit from next week

 

[Leviathan]

Hope, hopefully you did not listen what I said about selfmaded parlay. Grazy match between Azarenka and Arn. After the first set it seemed like Azarenka is cruising to the victory but after that she started to throw her racket and made much unforced errors. Maby she was not ready to win the tournament and it was something in her head. Nice oddschancing in live at Betfair.

Phillipp :toast:

 

[Leviathan]

Tursonov -191 over Bjorkman. I do not like playing Dmitri on clay but I was excepting much lower odds for him so this is a game for me with stakes 4/10.

Not going to be around tomorrow when they will play at Rome, so no live betting for me but I will bet some more games later, going to sleep now. Thinking about Simon against Murray who had problems with his back and plays his first match on clay but the game I like even more is Oscar Hernandez who is playing against Hewitt who has had same problems as Murray and he is also playing his first clay match for some time and Oscar came trough qualies.

Good luck everybody.

 

[rhinooooo]

I agree about Gilles Simon over Murray. I have just taken him at Betfair. I want to play Hernandez. He opened as favourite against Hewitt but the odds are now shifting at Betfair. When he gets to over 2.00, I'll most likely take him.

Good luck

 

[JohnMolson]

looks like jcf going down to little girl like hrbaty:monsters- .never saw that coming

 

[JohnMolson]

Tursonov takes it in 3:aktion033 .JCF wakes up and beats little girl Hrbaty

 

[Leviathan]

Nicely done with Ferrero John.

Dmitri :toast:

Just came home and made two bets for rest of the day. Canas high stakes and small odd -458, should be no problems with Melzer. Other bet was Ginepri +127 with small stakes, just so round match that anything can happen.

GL


Oscar just took the second set tiebreak against Hewitt and Simon won the first set. Never made a bet for Hernandez because of low odds, later the odds have been good but was not around and with Simon was a bet just came home after he had won the first set and made all green bet so no matter for me how the match ends but really hoping Simon can take it. Now it is looking like a three setter.

 

[Leviathan]

Rain rain rain rain, why can they not play with umbrellas....yeah, I know, I am stupid sometimes.

Wawrinka making his return tomorrow after a bad injury. Propably no chances against Montanes but not intrested in the odds of Montanes.

Benneteau +245 over Youzhny. This is my surprise. Their meeting 2004 6-0, 6-1 on carpet for Youzhny is not very encouraging but I think Youzhny might be a bit tired and if Benneteau plays sometimes very badly I really like about his attitude, he gives no respect for his opponent, I mean he is not scared to play against stronger opponent and at least I know he is in very good condition. Stakes now 2/10, maby adding one more unit later.

GL

 

[Leviathan]

Hope, Tu is +140 today against Srebotnik. I thought he would be lower so this is absolutely a game. Li also beated Maria yesterday, hard second set but the first 6-1 and the third 6-1.

 

[Leviathan]

The odds for Massu -117 have rosen playable for me. Bolelli is italian but Massu should be more familiar with the surface after coming trough qualies and Massu is still better player than Bolelli. Very nice results from Bolelli lately so low stakes.

For wednesday I have one shot in the dark with Oscar Hernandez +450 against Robredo. Tommy is maby surprisingly only 6-5 at Rome and from 2004 he has beaten only Phillippoussis and have lost for Karlovic, Benneteau and Rusedski. I have no memory of how he lost for Rusedski but Rusedski is now retired as far as I know and if you watch his results it would have not made a big difference if he would have retired a year before that. So I definately have a feeling that there is something in this court what is no good for Robredo. Robredo is clearly better player than Oscar but Oscar has some decent results from this year and I think he is ready to take the advantage if his opponent has small problems, if Tommy has no problems with the court he should take it easily. Tommy propably has had time to train on the court but Hernandez has better feeling to that court because of his games, small stakes.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Nice hit on Massu. I only caught the last few games of the match, but he seemed pretty sharp, and playing with a great intensity.

I agree with Oscar, I'll most likely be playing him. He's up to 6.00 at Betfair. Robredo is worth fading at this moment in time.

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks Rhino. There was no fuel left with Benny and Oscar when the third set came.

For today and ladies first:

Safarova over Safina +108
Bondarenko over Ivanovic +288

Safarova has dominated their matches and Safina overreated because his wins at US fast clays imo. My estimation to the Bondarenko match is that she should be dog but only +170 so I am taking this dog to bite. Both with medium stakes.

And then men:

Youzhny over Nadal +1250 and Nadal will not win 2-0 +320. I playd the straight win with something like 0,5/10 and set bet with 1/10, maby putting more money for Youzhny if I am around when they are playing. Youzhny is very hard opponent for Nadal because of his hard hits and attacking game. Head to head 3-3 and after Youzhny's great form 2-0 for Youzhny but both on hard. Their only meeting on clay 2005 at Rome was for Nadal 6-0, 6-2 but this is not so slow surface and Youzhny plays much better than then. Nadal is the clayking and Youzhny might be a bit tired but with these odds I will try my luck with Youzhny.


Berdych -152 over Acasuso with high stakes. Berdych plays sometimes very well and sometimes opposite even in the same match but Tommy's gamestyle should send Jose away from this tournament. Maby in straight sets but not playing that.

Davydenko -110 over Starace. Davydenko is class on clay and Starace is one of the hottest players on clay so not very confidently going against him. Another thing is how Davydenko can handle the audience? Nikolay's lifetime record on clay is 152-96 but agaist hosts it is only 16-14 all surfaces 35-29 and 318-228. This odd is value imo but keeping the stakes low.

Roddick +100 over Chela. Head to head record nice for Roddick 6-1 but all played on hard and now this court is advantage for Chela compared to earlier. I have seen two matches between these players and both times it was like Chela had some chances but he had lost the matches inside his head before the matches had even started so I believe this record is mentally something what Chela can not handle well. Medium stakes.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

I'm with you on Roddick, and agree with Berdych.

But, I'm on Starace so I'll be rooting against you.

Good luck... (except with Davydenko):thumbsup:

 

[Leviathan]

I'm with you on Roddick, and agree with Berdych.

But, I'm on Starace so I'll be rooting against you.

Good luck... (except with Davydenko):thumbsup:

I can live with that if Berdych and Roddick will win their matches
:lol:

 

[Hope1]

gl today, Levi.

surprised with Bondarenko, she has been in good form of late--perhpas too much tennis? Ana is giving her a beatdown. Rain delay.

hopefully Davydenko delivers the goods today. No doubt we have the better player at a crazy price too. I got it at +103, then saw it go to +110, this morning he's -121:ughhh: . Starace is out of skin at the moment, brilliant form. We shall see.

looks like Andy has not showed up in the frist set, ya need a rally.....

both Safina and Lucie are not serving particularly well, very tough to call that match. I have not been impressed with Lucie these last two weeks. Rooting for ya.

gl with Thomas!!!!!!! very good price for him, IMO

VAMOS DAVYDENKO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Hope1]

Alona just retired down 5-0 in the 2nd....uppy: .....hopefully you played it at Pinny

 

[rhinooooo]

:missingte Roddick got bageled in the first set...

BUT MORE AMAZING....

FEDERER IS DOWN 5-2 IN THE FIRST SET TO VOLANDRI!!! :monsters-

 

[Leviathan]

Alona just retired down 5-0 in the 2nd....uppy: .....hopefully you played it at Pinny

Yeah, you said that, grazy situation. Played both women matches for Pinny, I consider myself lycky in this situation. If there were no rain they propably would have played it to the end.

Andy was no match for Chela what came to the ballrallies, not goining like I excepted. Volandri taking the first set from Federer, just took Filippo with small stake when he was leading 3-1 and maby I should chance the side but I want my losses back (not wise thinking) from Roddick match and I will let this ride, go Filippo!

 

[Leviathan]

:missingte Roddick got bageled in the first set...

BUT MORE AMAZING....

FEDERER IS DOWN 5-2 IN THE FIRST SET TO VOLANDRI!!! :monsters-

...and more amazing is that Filippo has breaked Roger three times. Think about it if Roger and Rafael would both lose today :missingte