Teams that...

[Serbone]

Tuesday teams that need wins

CBJ, PITT MTL CAR Min DAL COL Arizona....8 out of 10 games meaningful

Parlayed them all $5 to win $295

The Flyers have given up on the season. Their last couple games have been tough to watch.

Columbus playing to get in and playing well. Boston can rest knowing they get toronto and nothing left to play for.
Minnesota is all but eliminated and actually has a losing record at home which is surprising for a team over .500. winnipeg fighting for the division so hard to really see who would be more motivated. winnipeg did play on ot game last night though.
detroit has been hot, dont know if they are playing loose or what and pitt has some positioning to play for but overall i doubt they really care as long as they are in which they almost certainly are. they of course want home ice in the first round but they are a veteran team which doesnt overly need it.
Montreal with everything to play for tonight against tampa

montreal, columbus, Arizona and dallas look like motivated at home vs opponents who may not care tonight

TB starting #3 goalie Pasquale in net tonight. Resting Varlamov. The backup G is injured.

"It will mark the second career appearance for Pasquale, who stopped only 19 of 24 shots but still managed to pick up the win in his NHL debut back in December against the Red Wings. The 28-year-old will likely stick around with the parent club so long as top backup Louis Domingue continues to deal with a lower-body injury. With the Lightning already having secured the Presidents' Trophy, it's possible that Pasquale could pick up an additional start beyond Tuesday as the team looks to give extra rest to top netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy prior to the playoffs."

GOOD STUFF!
That is what I have been talking about!
I am looking at these, appreciate it.
I am going with Detroit, at home, just today they extended coach for 2 yrs, Pitt has the playoffs in the bag (>99%) might go in and not give it all they have on the road on a Tuesday... Detroit has shown signs of life, now the coach is coming back. I took Detroit ML, the over (assume Pitt D is not going 100%), and even a pinch - 1.5 goals.
GL!

 

[Serbone]

Adding Carolina (78%) & Montreal (29%, desperate)... two motivated teams going against teams that clinched, I am looking for letdowns/coasting/resting teams vs hungry ones.

Earlier play, Detroit, team out of it that I think is playing for next years vs a team that has it made, almost nothing to prove.

GL!

 

[LargeMarge]

So start tracking it with units

 

[brendanjack]

Oilers over 5.5 could be a track meet

 

[Serbone]

Every year this angle gets trotted out, but I really don’t see much in the way of extra value. Players on bad teams just don’t start rolling over and not care when they are on the ice. They are all professionals, and care about stat lines and future contracts

So start tracking it with units

You do not get it.

My thread is to stimulate productive discussions, help each other, this is a great time to wager in the NHL, some fat teams that are coasting, some good teams that need a win for the playoffs, and some eliminated teams that are trying for next year... and some that have thrown in the towel. Sure we do not know who will behave the way we expect every game but it is effective and profitable, lots of dogs coming in and lots of value for -1.5 in matchups that usually would not be appropriate to go that way with...

My teams went 3-0 tonight, and I provided reasons, with some very good help from others. We pooled our knowledge. I had ML on all 3, additional -1.5 on two, and lost a small parlay Detroit & over.

This is not a picking contest to me, it is to leverage knowledge.

GL!

 

[Serbone]

Oilers over 5.5 could be a track meet

Easy over!
Well done.

 

[brendanjack]

Slim Pickens today taking senators only reason line value

 

[Serbone]

Slim Pickens today taking senators only reason line value

Agree. I will probably take the night off.

You are a top hockey handicapper, not doubt. I like skins85, too, he knows his stuff. X files contributed last night with goalie info.

Teams have 2 games to go, I will look for:

• teams that clinched that cannot improve, will not play "all out" especially on the road
• teams that still need a win to get into the playoffs
• teams that have been eliminated for awhile and are now jelling for next year (some that just got eliminated, on the other hand, are deflated)
• what eliminated teams have thrown in the towel, and what have jelled for next year and are playing well?
• favor home teams a LOT now, meaningless games: the players want to show their stuff (pride) at home, on the road they do not give a sh!t
• BEST to me is: home team, big dog on ML, against top level coasting playoff team, take the home team ML and also some at -1.5 (Detroit last night -1.5 was +440)
• top teams resting players, especially #1 goaltender

I will be looking ahead to Thurs night, there should be some opportunities, I might make some big plays, yes Vegas builds some of this into the lines but not always.

 

[Serbone]

Also, at this point a few teams that have clinched might be playing hard to hold home ice like eg. Toronto-Islanders, tied with 99, and Jets 96-Predators 96- Blues 94, tough to know what teams will really be focused on this... Predators in good shape if Blues lose tonight.

 

[brendanjack]

There are some great nhl cappers here that can heat up as well insight heat haven't seen in a while unfortunately . All about timing some days you know it some you wish and some you chase. Hopefully we all can end the season on a + cash flow.

 

[Serbone]

Well I put a small move on Anaheim, -1.5, + 335.

Anaheim @ home, has been playing well (6-3) lately, maybe Calgary on this west coast swing (on their way home after this) will lay down and coast this time (they sure didn't last game vs the Kings), they have home ice locked up: nothing to play for, peeking ahead to the playoffs, do not want injuries... will they dive for loose pucks, forecheck, etc???

GL!

 

[brendanjack]

Well I put a small move on Anaheim, -1.5, + 335.

Anaheim @ home, has been playing well (6-3) lately, maybe Calgary on this west coast swing (on their way home after this) will lay down and coast this time (they sure didn't last game vs the Kings), they have home ice locked up: nothing to play for, peeking ahead to the playoffs, do not want injuries... will they dive for loose pucks, forecheck, etc???

GL!

Like the payout will tail

 

[skins85]

Like that payout as well. Gonna follow but on anaheim ml.
last road game for Calgary and everything wrapped up like you said. After tonight they go home for at least 9-10 days. Gotta think they are disinterested in this game.

 

[brendanjack]

Go Anaheim hitting hay maybe wake up a winner

 

[brendanjack]

Great call serbone.

 

[skins85]

Love a wake and win.
Go to bed and wake up with some $
wish I had he +335 but will happily take the +140.
looking into tonight now.

 

[Serbone]

Yes, it is a risk to go so far as lay the -1.5, but this time of the year top teams will not give their top effort, coast, especially on the road, and a few teams OUT of the playoffs will be professionals, start to play well as a team for next year, play for their individual contracts, and at home (late in the season) want to beat a top team in front of their fans.
This one went well.
GL!

 

[Serbone]

I always say that teams do not get fired up for home ice (field) advantage late in the season when they locked up a playoff spot... until the very end. But then the players "get it"... the end is in sight, if we win we play at home...

Tonight:

• #4 seed Toronto and #5 NYI are tied with 99 points, can flip flop home ice for the first playoff game.. probably against each other. SO they might both be fired up for games, Toronto (off a loss) at home against TB, which has home ice locked up, and NYI at Florida, which is out of it and probably still reeling. SO I am thinking a good wager on both, maybe Toronto stronger, though TB is always tough... they might come out fired up for one last full effort then coast their last game.
• Montreal (44% chance of playoffs) is in must win... @ Washington... Washington with 102 points with 2 to go wants to stay ahead of Toronto & NYI but might not be too worried about it...
• Nashville and Blues are a point apart with 2 to go, for home ice.
• Blues at home will have Binnington back in goal, they played hard last night but are back to back... Philly IMO seems to have given up.
• Carolina (87% chance of playoffs) at home needs a win vs NJ, laying -295, though.
• Colorado (97.5%) will want to wrap things up vs. Winnipeg... though Winnipeg is in close company with SJ, Nashv, and Blues...
• AZ (2.5%) at LV, has very little hope.
• Nashville might be a good play, too
• SJ might be a bit concerned, they are 2 seed but are only one point > Jets and Nashville.

Opinions?

Not making picks yet but interested in NYI, Toronto, Nashville, Carolina -1.5, SL, Colorado.

 

[skins85]

caps last game of the year is against the NYI. if they win tonight that game becomes meaningless. i expect a good effort from the caps tonight to lock up the division and get the #2 seed. caps shouldnt want to see pitt in the first round which is a possibility if they dont win the division. caps should go all out for a win tonight at home and should have a lot of focus on it i believe. if the islanders lose of course the game also becomes meaningless.

 

[Jambruins]

Toronto is playing Boston in 1st round. The second and third place teams in each division play each other. The top teams in each division plays the two wild-card teams.