That happened tonight. Even after falling behind 0-13 at the half, Seattle at one time was leading by 7 in the 2nd half. However, they didn't end up covering this number.
New Orleans is still fitting into this system for MNF. I'll be making my bet before game time to make sure the line is still at -6.5 or more.
This system really took off since 2002.
There are many variations that can be made to it.!/
Not sure about the n:rest>9 parameter, as it includes games that are not true bye weeks.
Some people use "n:week = week +2" which translates into "the next week the team plays is equal to this week plus 2 weeks".
Substituting
n:rest > 9
with
n:week = week + 2
The first gives a record of 80-32-1. The second gives a record of 76-29-1.
I'm confused. i thought the system was 22-1 and now this is showing 20-7 which is still great. And, I thought the system only came into play at -7 to -15.5 or something like that. It doesn't apply when the line is 6.5 like it was last night. We can't force plays because we think the 6.5 should work. Am I missing something?
I think it only works as a DD
Maybe that changes if you go back further
Maybe the system is .500 if you go back far enough
But the league and rules change
There is never a guarantee a system will continue
I like systems
But I combine systems with my personal capping to decide if it seems like a good play or vary how much the play should be based on the system and capping
I would suggest people do the same
Maybe that changes if you go back further
Maybe the system is .500 if you go back far enough
But the league and rules change
There is never a guarantee a system will continue
I like systems
But I combine systems with my personal capping to decide if it seems like a good play or vary how much the play should be based on the system and capping
I would suggest people do the same
line <= -6.5 and n:rest > 11 and season >= 2005 and H and ...
| games | ATS W - L- P (marg, %win) | Avg Line | OU W - L- P (marg, %over) | Avg Total | SU W - L- P (marg, %win) | SDQL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 10-3-0 (7.19, 76.9%) | -6.5 | 7-5-1 (0.77, 58.3%) | 45.8 | 12-1-0 (13.69, 92.3%) | line = -6.5 |
| 9 | 5-4-0 (5.67, 55.6%) | -7.0 | 6-3-0 (6.11, 66.7%) | 46.8 | 8-1-0 (12.67, 88.9%) | line = -7.0 |
| 7 | 3-4-0 (-2.50, 42.9%) | -7.5 | 3-4-0 (-1.50, 42.9%) | 45.4 | 5-2-0 (5.00, 71.4%) | line = -7.5 |
| 5 | 3-2-0 (5.00, 60.0%) | -8.0 | 4-1-0 (2.30, 80.0%) | 45.1 | 4-1-0 (13.00, 80.0%) | line = -8.0 |
| 4 | 4-0-0 (13.25, 100.0%) | -8.5 | 4-0-0 (7.12, 100.0%) | 43.6 | 4-0-0 (21.75, 100.0%) | line = -8.5 |
| 5 | 3-2-0 (4.00, 60.0%) | -9.0 | 4-1-0 (7.30, 80.0%) | 43.3 | 5-0-0 (13.00, 100.0%) | line = -9.0 |
| 9 | 6-3-0 (1.28, 66.7%) | -9.5 | 5-4-0 (1.67, 55.6%) | 42.7 | 8-1-0 (10.78, 88.9%) | line = -9.5 |
| 7 | 4-3-0 (1.43, 57.1%) | -10.0 | 4-3-0 (1.64, 57.1%) | 45.8 | 7-0-0 (11.43, 100.0%) | line = -10.0 |
| 3 | 3-0-0 (7.50, 100.0%) | -10.5 | 3-0-0 (21.17, 100.0%) | 45.5 | 3-0-0 (18.00, 100.0%) | line = -10.5 |
| 3 | 3-0-0 (18.67, 100.0%) | -11.0 | 2-1-0 (-2.83, 66.7%) | 43.8 | 3-0-0 (29.67, 100.0%) | line = -11.0 |
| 2 | 2-0-0 (18.00, 100.0%) | -11.5 | 1-1-0 (9.00, 50.0%) | 41.5 | 2-0-0 (29.50, 100.0%) | line = -11.5 |
| 2 | 2-0-0 (6.00, 100.0%) | -12.0 | 0-2-0 (-9.00, 0.0%) | 46.0 | 2-0-0 (18.00, 100.0%) | line = -12.0 |
| 4 | 3-1-0 (-4.75, 75.0%) | -12.5 | 2-2-0 (0.38, 50.0%) | 44.4 | 3-1-0 (7.75, 75.0%) | line = -12.5 |
| 3 | 1-1-1 (-0.67, 50.0%) | -13.0 | 2-1-0 (13.67, 66.7%) | 41.3 | 3-0-0 (12.33, 100.0%) | line = -13.0 |
| 1 | 0-1-0 (-10.50, 0.0%) | -13.5 | 1-0-0 (7.50, 100.0%) | 41.5 | 1-0-0 (3.00, 100.0%) | line = -13.5 |
| 4 | 3-1-0 (10.25, 75.0%) | -14.0 | 2-2-0 (3.75, 50.0%) | 45.5 | 4-0-0 (24.25, 100.0%) | line = -14.0 |
| 2 | 1-1-0 (6.00, 50.0%) | -14.5 | 0-2-0 (-14.25, 0.0%) | 49.8 | 2-0-0 (20.50, 100.0%) | line = -14.5 |
| 1 | 1-0-0 (17.00, 100.0%) | -16.0 | 1-0-0 (12.00, 100.0%) | 49.0 | 1-0-0 (33.00, 100.0%) | line = -16.0 |
| 2 | 1-1-0 (0.50, 50.0%) | -16.5 | 1-1-0 (-5.00, 50.0%) | 41.0 | 2-0-0 (17.00, 100.0%) | line = -16.5 |
| 1 | 1-0-0 (18.00, 100.0%) | -17.0 | 0-1-0 (-0.50, 0.0%) | 41.5 | 1-0-0 (35.00, 100.0%) | line = -17.0 |
| 1 | 0-1-0 (-16.50, 0.0%) | -17.5 | 0-1-0 (-20.50, 0.0%) | 47.5 | 1-0-0 (1.00, 100.0%) | line = -17.5 |
