DR. CHUCK FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (453) Houston Texans at (454) Indianapolis Colts
Date/Time: Oct 20 2019 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Texans 1.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Here I am back to the well fading the Frank Reich Colts sans Andrew Luck...and it somehow has not worked all that well as I took the Chefs, Titans, and Falcons who all lost outright to this gritty, tough version of the Colts. We did get one victory with the Raiders as dogs who won outright, but there is certainly something about this club that attracts my attention...this being the 5th time in 6 contests I've had a play on a Colts game. No shock then I am backing the road Texans coming in to Lucas Oil today for the lead spot in the AFC South division.
Starting with Houston, off the bat, BOB with Deshaun are 5-0-1 as road dogs of 4 points or less...with 5 wins outright and the 1 loss to the Eagles by the +2 point spread. Deshaun has been as HOT as anyone in the NFL and has led his offens to 84 points in the last 2 games in wins against ATL and KC and put up 37 (albeit the last 3 gifted by Reich) in Lucas Oil last year in this matchup....with Andrew Luck! The Texans are banged up but have been rolling so well on offense it sure is hard to fade them even on the road facing an opponent off a bye.
Colts have a nice 3-2 record a some big wins already on their resume including that win over the Chiefs last Sunday night shutting down the Mahomes machine almost completely for 3 quarters. Behind the numbers the Colts allow a 70% completion rate to opponents, playing right into Watson's hands, allow a league low 5.1 yards per rush to opposing offenses (but survives due to minimal rushing attack) and has gotten lucky being on the right side of the most penalties and most penalty yards per game average from their 5 opponents on the season.
Texans can win this and shouldn't need Frank Reich to give them the ball in FG range late to do so!
Game: (471) New Orleans Saints at (472) Chicago Bears
Date/Time: Oct 20 2019 4:25 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Bears -3.5 (-120)
View Analysis
(-4 is also fine)
- Kamara ruled out
- Cook ruled out
- Teddy B and his dumbed down offense has worked for Ws so far, but in wins over Dallas and Jacksonville making both look incredibly meager on the offensive end, Teddy put up merely 6 FGs and 1 TD.
The reward for Sean Payton and his excellent game moves and following 4 of 5 weeks facing the defenses of the Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys, and Jaguars....is to travel to Soldier Field and face an angry and very well rested, post-London Bears squad, last seen losing outright in a very winnable game to the Raiders, dropping them to 3-2...after 4-1 looked like all but a certainty.
Sure, I would like Akiem Hicks clogging up the middle of that Saints offensive line, but I also think his loss is much less meaningfull than the safety valves in Kamara and Cook, especially with Trubisky possibly being available, and his ability to scramble and get upfield is not hindered at all with a left shoulder injury.
The Saints are catching a break the weather in Chicago is not going to be frigid and just 50s and gloomy with possibly slight rain and wind. What I do like to fade on an almost 100% basis is Vegas begging and my God were they begging for bets on Nawlins in this spot...hanging a line that (if you count Soldier merely normal HFA) means these 2 teams are equal on a neutral field. Well, Vegas wins...they are getting close to 65/35 tickets on the Saints...as the public is biting fully! I rate Soldier Field north of -3 HFA period and especialy when facing teams who come from a dome who normally play warm weather outdoor games.
I like the Bears to wreak havoc on Teddy B and don't think the offense he has been running will be nearly enough to get him out of jams...the Jags certainly had little trouble stopping him, but couldn't get in the end zone in their own right. I think the Chase Daniel factor is very interesting as well, as if he plays or not, he spent half his playing career thus far in the Payton system, and as recently as the 2017 season. The offense Bridgewater is being given to just survive and hope the defense can win them some games likely looks very similar to what Daniel would have prepared with, but also I'm sure he has been able to participate in defensive meetings this week to aid in Payton ideas for an even further limited offensive arsenal.
I think this is the bargain of the day so I'm sure hoping the Bears can settle themselves down and that Nagy has taken the extra time to prepare some schemes on offense to flaunt the few things some teams (Seattle, TB) have use to be able to reguarly move the ball. If the Bears can keep from turning the ball over on offense, I cannot imagine the Saints are able to muster much more than 10 points!
Game: (453) Houston Texans at (454) Indianapolis Colts
Date/Time: Oct 20 2019 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Texans 1.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Here I am back to the well fading the Frank Reich Colts sans Andrew Luck...and it somehow has not worked all that well as I took the Chefs, Titans, and Falcons who all lost outright to this gritty, tough version of the Colts. We did get one victory with the Raiders as dogs who won outright, but there is certainly something about this club that attracts my attention...this being the 5th time in 6 contests I've had a play on a Colts game. No shock then I am backing the road Texans coming in to Lucas Oil today for the lead spot in the AFC South division.
Starting with Houston, off the bat, BOB with Deshaun are 5-0-1 as road dogs of 4 points or less...with 5 wins outright and the 1 loss to the Eagles by the +2 point spread. Deshaun has been as HOT as anyone in the NFL and has led his offens to 84 points in the last 2 games in wins against ATL and KC and put up 37 (albeit the last 3 gifted by Reich) in Lucas Oil last year in this matchup....with Andrew Luck! The Texans are banged up but have been rolling so well on offense it sure is hard to fade them even on the road facing an opponent off a bye.
Colts have a nice 3-2 record a some big wins already on their resume including that win over the Chiefs last Sunday night shutting down the Mahomes machine almost completely for 3 quarters. Behind the numbers the Colts allow a 70% completion rate to opponents, playing right into Watson's hands, allow a league low 5.1 yards per rush to opposing offenses (but survives due to minimal rushing attack) and has gotten lucky being on the right side of the most penalties and most penalty yards per game average from their 5 opponents on the season.
Texans can win this and shouldn't need Frank Reich to give them the ball in FG range late to do so!
Game: (471) New Orleans Saints at (472) Chicago Bears
Date/Time: Oct 20 2019 4:25 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Bears -3.5 (-120)
View Analysis
(-4 is also fine)
- Kamara ruled out
- Cook ruled out
- Teddy B and his dumbed down offense has worked for Ws so far, but in wins over Dallas and Jacksonville making both look incredibly meager on the offensive end, Teddy put up merely 6 FGs and 1 TD.
The reward for Sean Payton and his excellent game moves and following 4 of 5 weeks facing the defenses of the Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys, and Jaguars....is to travel to Soldier Field and face an angry and very well rested, post-London Bears squad, last seen losing outright in a very winnable game to the Raiders, dropping them to 3-2...after 4-1 looked like all but a certainty.
Sure, I would like Akiem Hicks clogging up the middle of that Saints offensive line, but I also think his loss is much less meaningfull than the safety valves in Kamara and Cook, especially with Trubisky possibly being available, and his ability to scramble and get upfield is not hindered at all with a left shoulder injury.
The Saints are catching a break the weather in Chicago is not going to be frigid and just 50s and gloomy with possibly slight rain and wind. What I do like to fade on an almost 100% basis is Vegas begging and my God were they begging for bets on Nawlins in this spot...hanging a line that (if you count Soldier merely normal HFA) means these 2 teams are equal on a neutral field. Well, Vegas wins...they are getting close to 65/35 tickets on the Saints...as the public is biting fully! I rate Soldier Field north of -3 HFA period and especialy when facing teams who come from a dome who normally play warm weather outdoor games.
I like the Bears to wreak havoc on Teddy B and don't think the offense he has been running will be nearly enough to get him out of jams...the Jags certainly had little trouble stopping him, but couldn't get in the end zone in their own right. I think the Chase Daniel factor is very interesting as well, as if he plays or not, he spent half his playing career thus far in the Payton system, and as recently as the 2017 season. The offense Bridgewater is being given to just survive and hope the defense can win them some games likely looks very similar to what Daniel would have prepared with, but also I'm sure he has been able to participate in defensive meetings this week to aid in Payton ideas for an even further limited offensive arsenal.
I think this is the bargain of the day so I'm sure hoping the Bears can settle themselves down and that Nagy has taken the extra time to prepare some schemes on offense to flaunt the few things some teams (Seattle, TB) have use to be able to reguarly move the ball. If the Bears can keep from turning the ball over on offense, I cannot imagine the Saints are able to muster much more than 10 points!
DR. CHUCK
SOCCER PLAYS
Game: (200073) LIVERPOOL at (200074) MANCHESTER UNITED
Date/Time: Oct 20 2019 11:30 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: LIVERPOOL -125
View Analysis
It's time to no longer worry about history and past performances in today's 'showcase' EPL matchup today at 4:30 local time at Old Trafford. Things have not gone well for Klopp and Liverpool, but that is not today!
Pogba has been ruled out
DeGea ruled out
Martial is in doubt
The Reds likely have none of these issues with Salah, Firmino, and Mane all in the front line, Henderson or Milner behind them with a fit Alisson, Matip, Van Dijk, and Wijnaldum.
I understand what they're doing here with this line...Liverpool is 8 for 8 SU this season with a perfect 24 points thru 8 matches, and has put up 20 goals in the process...while Man U. is closer to relegation than European play and riddled with injuries and disarray. Man U is also at home against Liverpool and still are a dog, but Liverpool to win this match at -125 is still excellent value. I'm sure it plays a huge part the fact the last 3 victories by the Reds were each by 1 goal over Chelsea, Sheffield, and Leicester, thus a draw is very much in play when laying juice to get a win only, but I think Liverpool has had this match circled for a while, and the travel to Old Trafford even with the demons, will be sloughed off early as they take a quick lead in the first 20 minutes on the attack with minimal ability on the Man U side to stop the viciousness of what Klopp's 11 offer on the offensive end.
Liverpool escapes with a 9th straight win by a score of 3-1 and keep the perfection with 27 points through 9 matches going...in their quest to win a title!
SOCCER PLAYS
Game: (200073) LIVERPOOL at (200074) MANCHESTER UNITED
Date/Time: Oct 20 2019 11:30 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: LIVERPOOL -125
View Analysis
It's time to no longer worry about history and past performances in today's 'showcase' EPL matchup today at 4:30 local time at Old Trafford. Things have not gone well for Klopp and Liverpool, but that is not today!
Pogba has been ruled out
DeGea ruled out
Martial is in doubt
The Reds likely have none of these issues with Salah, Firmino, and Mane all in the front line, Henderson or Milner behind them with a fit Alisson, Matip, Van Dijk, and Wijnaldum.
I understand what they're doing here with this line...Liverpool is 8 for 8 SU this season with a perfect 24 points thru 8 matches, and has put up 20 goals in the process...while Man U. is closer to relegation than European play and riddled with injuries and disarray. Man U is also at home against Liverpool and still are a dog, but Liverpool to win this match at -125 is still excellent value. I'm sure it plays a huge part the fact the last 3 victories by the Reds were each by 1 goal over Chelsea, Sheffield, and Leicester, thus a draw is very much in play when laying juice to get a win only, but I think Liverpool has had this match circled for a while, and the travel to Old Trafford even with the demons, will be sloughed off early as they take a quick lead in the first 20 minutes on the attack with minimal ability on the Man U side to stop the viciousness of what Klopp's 11 offer on the offensive end.
Liverpool escapes with a 9th straight win by a score of 3-1 and keep the perfection with 27 points through 9 matches going...in their quest to win a title!
