Sunday Service Play Thread 10/20/2019

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3000* NFL Over 54 Rams/Falcons (buy 1/2 if needed)
100* NFL Saints +4
100* NFL Seahawks -3
Paul Leiner
 
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Dwayne Bryant

FIRST 5% MAX NFL TOTAL OF THE SEASON
Vikings under 43.5

5% play at 43 or higher
4% play at 42 or 42.5
3% play at 41 or 41.5
No play below 41


LATE AFTERNOON NFL MONEY MAKER
3% Ravens +3


Don't understand how this idiot is in business still.....he is the absolute WORST so called handicapper I have ever seen! I was stupid enough to get his service years ago he literally lost 19 baseball plays in a row. Vikes/Bears only game on the board scoring TD's left and right he suggests the UNDER. You SUCK!!!!
 

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Anyone have NC Sports for tracking purposes?


This is all we have for now, ie the games involved for the sides and totals:


  • 4 Game of the Month Total Play
    ARI.gif
    [451] Arizona Cardinals vs.
    NYG.gif
    [452] New York Giants
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
  • 3 Unit Total Play
    MIA.gif
    [455] Miami Dolphins vs.
    BUF.gif
    [456] Buffalo Bills
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
  • 3 Unit Total Play
    JAC.gif
    [461] Jacksonville Jaguars vs.
    CIN.gif
    [462] Cincinnati Bengals
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
  • 3 Unit Side Play
    SFO.gif
    [465] San Francisco 49ERS vs.
    WAS.gif
    [466] Washington Redskins
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
 

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This is all we have for now, ie the games involved for the sides and totals:


  • 4 Game of the Month Total Play
    ARI.gif
    [451] Arizona Cardinals vs.
    NYG.gif
    [452] New York Giants
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
  • 3 Unit Total Play
    MIA.gif
    [455] Miami Dolphins vs.
    BUF.gif
    [456] Buffalo Bills
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
  • 3 Unit Total Play
    JAC.gif
    [461] Jacksonville Jaguars vs.
    CIN.gif
    [462] Cincinnati Bengals
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
  • 3 Unit Side Play
    SFO.gif
    [465] San Francisco 49ERS vs.
    WAS.gif
    [466] Washington Redskins
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
i know he never backtracks from the Powersweep so I would assume
Arizona over 50
Miami under 41
Jaxonville -4x
San Francisco -10
 

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i know he never backtracks from the Powersweep so I would assume
Arizona over 50
Miami under 41
Jaxonville -4x
San Francisco -10

That makes sense-thanks!

ps Actually though the Jacksonville pick is a totals pick rather than side.
 

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Seabass : 300 3 team teaser titans game over / Jax game under / ravens game over , 500 falcons game over , 400 giants game Over , 300 Vikings , 400 Oakland , 400 redskins, no limit ravens , no limit bears
 

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4.5-Star Chargers +2.5 over TITANS The Titans are off a discouraging shutout loss in Denver in which Mariota was pulled. Home favorites that are off a bad loss as a dog and havent been able to protect the quarterback recently have been poor investments. Specifically, Teams that have allowed at least three sacks in each of their last two games are 0-17 ATS as a home favorite on grass when they are off a double-digit loss as a dog. The SDQL text is:

HF and surface=grass and p:D and p:margin<=-10 and 3<=po:sacks and 3<=ppo:sacks and date>=20141220

This is the first time it has been active this season and last season these home favorites were not only 0-5 ATS, they were 1-4 straight up.

Tennessee has demonstrated no character is toss-up games after a bad loss. The Titans are 0-7 ATS when the line is within three of pick off a ten-plus point ATS loss as a dog, falling short of the linesmakers expectations by an average of 12.1 ppg.

So far this season, there has been a big difference in the number of turnovers these two teams have committed. Tennessee has committed only four turnovers all season and is tied for the league lead. The Chargers, on the other hand, have committed eleven turnovers this season. Yet, both teams are 2-4 and in last place. Tennessee has not been able to take advantage of similar opponents, as they are 0-14 ATS when they are off a loss as a dog and they are facing a team that has averaged more than 1.65 turnovers per game and 80-plus rushing yards per game. The SDQL text is:

team=Titans and p:D and p:L and oA(TO)>1.65 and oA(RY)>80 and season >= 2014

The Chargers have solid offensive numbers this season. They have a third down conversion percentage of 48.1% and this is sixth in the league, just behind the Chiefs. The Chargers are ranked number two in the league in completions per game, and the Titans are dead last.

Both these teams have had a high first downs per point ratio this season. The Chargers because the have committed turnovers and the Titans because they have trouble scoring. All of this points to a play on the Chargers.

San Diego is 13-0 ATS (+9.12 ppg) on the road off a home game after a game in which they had more first downs than points and 12-0 ATS (+14.50 ppg) after playing as a home favorite off a loss facing an opponent that is averaging more first downs than offensive points.

Also, San Diego is 9-0 as a road dog off a loss in which they converted at least five third downs and the Titans are 0-7 ATS when the line is within three of pick and they are off a road loss in which they converted fewer than four third downs.

In the schedule-based category, we see that Chargers are 10-0 ATS (+10.85 ppg) when they are on the road vs a non-divisional opponent after two-plus home games.

Philip Rivers has been the leader of the chargers for a long time whereas the Titans have no field general. We are on the underdog Chargers.

MTis FORECAST: Chargers 23 TITANS 13
 

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Here you go, folks, for any of you who want to do any live betting with the NC Late Phones:


  • 4 Game of the Month Total Play
    ARI.gif
    [451] Arizona Cardinals vs.
    NYG.gif
    [452] New York Giants
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
    New York Giants [Over]
  • 3 Unit Total Play
    MIA.gif
    [455] Miami Dolphins vs.
    BUF.gif
    [456] Buffalo Bills
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
    Buffalo Bills [Under]
  • 3 Unit Total Play
    JAC.gif
    [461] Jacksonville Jaguars vs.
    CIN.gif
    [462] Cincinnati Bengals
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
    Cincinnati Bengals [Under]
  • 3 Unit Side Play
    SFO.gif
    [465] San Francisco 49ERS vs.
    WAS.gif
    [466] Washington Redskins
    spacer.gif
    Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
    [465] San Francisco 49ERS
 

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4-Star Saints +4 over BEARS The Bears have a good defense. They force a lot of punts and they force a lot of turnovers. However, the Saints have been immune to this strength, as they are 18-0 ATS when they are off a game as a dog and they are facing a team that has forced at least 1,75 turnovers and at least 3.6 punts per game. The SDQL text is:

team=Saints and p:D and oA(o:TO)>=1.75 and oA(o:punts)>3.6 and date>=20071100

New Orleans is also 9-0 ATS (+10.28 ppg) off a win as a dog in which they converted at least five third downs and 9-0 ATS (+7.28 ppg) after a game in which they failed on at least one goal-to-go attempt.

The Bears have a poor offense and the Saints have been underestimated when visiting similar teams, as they are 11-0 ATS since the start of the 2016 season on the road vs a team that has punted the ball away more than 4.5 times per game. The SDQL text is:

team=Saints and A and oA(punts)>4.5 and season >= 2016

Lastly for the Saints, they have not suffered any let down after a wire-to-wire win, as they are 12-0 ATS on grass vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win in which they never trailed and had less than 37 minutes of possession time. The SDQL text is:

team=Saints and surface=grass and NDIV and p:W and po:BL=0 and p:TOP/60<37

The Raiders had both more passing yards and more rushing yards in their 24-21 victory over the Bears at Tottenham HotSpur. Derek Carr was 25-of 32 passing and Josh Jacobs ran for 123 yards. Chicago has shown no ability to rebound from performances like these, as they are 0-9 ATS off a loss in which they allowed at least eighty yards more than their season-to-date average with their opponent attempting 25-plus passes. The SDQL text is:

team=Bears and p:L and tA(po:TY) - po:TY <= -80 and po:passes>=25 and date>=20131229

Chicago lost every game straight up, with the average final score: Chicago 20.2, Opponent 34.1.

Yes, the Bears are off their bye week, but they are The Bears are 0-5 SU and ATS the last five seasons after their bye week, losing by an average of 16 ppg and they were the favorite in each of the last three seasons.

Chicago is 3-2 on the season, but they have been outgained by an average of 46 yards per game and have averaged 3.2 fewer first downs per game so far this season. The main reason they are 3-2 is that they have the second-best turnover margin in the league (Patriots are first).

It is difficult for us to see the Bears covering without a two-plus turnover ratio and a non-offensive TD or two.

We are grabbing the points.

MTis FORECAST: Saints 20 BEARS 13
 

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The Biz (68% and publicly documented) posted:

Atlanta Under 55
Indi Under 47
Giants Over 50.5
Washington Under 42
Wash +10 (Best Bet 2 Unit)
Oak +5.5
Minn -2
Balt +3.5
 

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WOW! Did Pettis even play today?

Sharp props

Russell Wilson over 255.5 passing yards to win 1.0 units
Robert Woods over 5.5 receptions risking 0.5 units
Dante Pettis over 40.5 receiving yards risking 0.5 units
Leonard Fournette over 33.5 receiving yards to win 1.0 units

WOW! Did Pettis even play today?
 

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