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(275) BALTIMORE @ (276) PITTSBURGH | 09/30/2018 - 8:20 PM
Play ON BALTIMORE using a teaser in All games as a road underdog of 3 or less in a 6 point teaser
The record is 42 Wins and 3 Losses since 1992 (+38.70 units)
 

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BRYAN LEONARD
NFL | Sep 30, 2018
Texans vs. Colts
Texans+1½

Neither team has been very impressive thus far, but we feel like the wrong team is favored here. While the Texans are 0-3 both SU & ATS, the team has shown some positives. Houston is beating the opposition in early down success rate, and is virtually even in play success rates. The Texans are also +3 in sacks and +9 in explosive plays vs the opposition.

Indy is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS but haven't fared quite as well as the Texans when looking at advanced stats. The Colts are really struggling in early down success rate, especially the first two games against Cincinnati and Washington. Indy has also lost all three games when it comes to successful plays percentage. This is a team that also has struggled with explosive plays, producing 10 while allowing 16. Andrew Luck just doesn't have the arm strength to stretch the field.

PLAY HOUSTON
 

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SAL MICHAELS
NFL | Sep 30, 2018
Bills vs. Packers
Bonus Play on Bills +9½ -110
 

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COLE FAXON
NFL | Sep 30, 2018
Browns vs. Raiders
Bonus Play on Browns +3 -110
 

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JACK JONES

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Chicago Bears -3

The Tampa Bay Bucs are in a very tough spot this week. They are working on a short week after their heartbreaking 27-30 home loss to the Steelers on Monday Night Football. They had been off back-to-back upset wins over the Saints and Eagles the first two weeks as well. So this is clearly a flat spot for them now facing a lesser-caliber opponent here in the Bears.

But I really like this Chicago team. They have a defense that is one of the best in the NFL. They are giving up just 18.3 points and 289.0 yards per game this season, raking 5th in total defense. They have the formula for shutting down Ryan Fitzpatrick and this Tampa Bay offense.

On the other side, the Bucs have one of the worst defenses in the league. They are giving up 30.3 points and 433 yards per game while ranking 31st in total defense. They are also giving up 6.6 yards per play. It’s a defense that even Mitch Trubisky should be able to exploit.

Chicago head coach Matt Nagy has said it’s no secret that the defense has carried them to a 2-1 start. And it would be 3-0 if not for a huge blown lead in a 24-23 loss at Green Bay as 7.5-point underdogs. I think the offense being held in check is weighing on Nagy and Trubisky. This will be their coming out party here against this awful Tampa Bay defense.

Fitzpatrick has taken more hits than any other quarterback in the league to this point. He has to be sore after that Steelers game, and this short week compounds that. Khalil Mack and company will be able to exploit that bad offensive line and make life difficult on Fitzpatrick, because the Bucs don’t have a running game as they’re averaging just 71 rushing yards per game. I think that will lead to some turnovers in Chicago’s favor, and winning the turnover battle will also be a key to their victory here.

The Bears are a very profitable 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. And now they have an even bigger home-field advantage because fans are actually excited about this team for the first time in a long time. Chicago is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Bears Sunday.
 

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INFO PLAYS
NFL | Sep 30, 2018
Lions vs. Cowboys
1* Bonus Play on Lions +3½ -109
 

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DOUG UPSTONE
NFL | Sep 30, 2018
Saints vs. Giants
Saints-3 -120

On Sunday in the NFL, Play On road favorites like NEW ORLEANS, passing for 265 YPG, against a pass defense allowing 230-265 YPG, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games. Since 1983, this rare system is 22-4 ATS, 84.6 percent!
 

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TIM MICHAEL

T.M. Selection: New York Giants (Bonus Play)

I think the door is open for Eli Manning and the Giants to steal this one outright. New York was in dire straights heading into its Week 3 match-up at Houston and it pulled out its best performance of the season in the 27-22 outright victory as nearly a TD underdog. The Giants though are in no less dire circumstances this week either, as a 1-3 hole, combined with upcoming games at Carolina, at home against Philadelphia, in Atlanta and at home vs. Washington before its bye essentially makes this a “must win” game as well. New Orleans comes in “gassed” here. It fell 48-40 to Tampa Bay in Week 1, it held on for a 21-18 win over the Browns in Week 2, before then scoring the 43-37 OT victory over division rival Atlanta last weekend. And with a game at home against Washington next weekend before its bye week, there’s no question that this sets up as a classic “letdown/look-ahead” spot as well for Drew Brees and the Saints. Give me the points and the hungry home underdog.

T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Giants.
 

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BEN BURNS
NFL | Sep 30, 2018
Bucs vs. Bears
Bears-2½

Though I successfully played against them at Arizona, where they failed to cover, the Bears still found a way to win the game. They're now 2-1 and could easily be 3-0. They know that they can ill afford to "relax" though. After this game, the Bears are on the road (at Miami) and then they host New England. In other words, taking care of business here is key. With the Bucs off a Monday night game, playing on a short week, expect the Bears to "keep on rolling," covering the small number along the way. Consider Chicago.
 

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PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
NFL | Sep 30, 2018
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Dolphins+7½

The Dolphins are 11-0 ATS (+13.05 ppg) after a win by more than a TD in which they did not score in the first quarter.

The Patriots are 0-8 ATS (-8.56 ppg) as a favorite on turf when facing a team that is allowing an average of more than 375 offensive yards per game.
 

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DENNIS MACKLIN

Mack Attack Bonus Play for Sunday, September 30, 2018 is on the Jets/Jags Under

Two pretty good defenses face two low octane offenses at EverBank Field. The Jets 20-12 and 21-17 losses to Miami and Cleveland are more indicative of what we'll see long term from the Flyboys, at least until Darnold gets dialed in. The real Blake Bordles please stood up in the Jags 9-6 snoozefest loss to the Titans last week in an obvious letdown spot after win over the Pats. Leonard Fournette is expected to be back which means Jags will look to run the ball which in turn will also eat clock and keep score low. Lots of football between the 20s, play the UNDER.
 

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ART ARONSON

This is a 1* Bonus Play on the LA Chargers.

The 49ers lost Jimmy Garoppolo for the season to injury last week and we think it’ll be a “moot point” this Sunday. Philip Rivers and company come in off a loss to the cross town Rams and they’ll be eager to get back into the winners circle and take advantage of this favorable situation. Garoppolo and the offense looked “out of sync” this year before he went down anyways, and now what should we expect with CJ Beathard under center? We’re banking on the injury to “Jimmy G” to be too much for the 49ers to overcome this week. Consider laying the points in this non-conference match-up.

AAA Sports
 

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MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Sep 30, 2018
Bucs vs. Bears
Bears-2½ -130

The Chicago Bears look like a solid home favorite as they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon.

The Bucs will be playing on a short week after taking a 30-27 loss to Pittsburgh Monday night. They've been riding QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's "Fitzmagic" through the first three games to make up for an atrocious defense, but that can't last forever.

Fitzpatrick passed for 411 yards and three TDs in the loss to the Steelers, but he also threw three interceptions and was only 30-of-50 passing for a 60% completion rate. The veteran QB is a prime candidate for regression after playing out of his mind so far.

The Bears boast one of the best defenses in the NFL and have held opponents to an average of 289 yards of total offense. Chicago linebacker Khalil Mack has four sacks, an interception and three forced fumbles and the team is tied for second in the NFL with eight takeaways.

The Bucs on the other hand are second to last in total defense at 474 yards per game and tied for last with KC against the pass (362.7 ypg). Even Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky could have a big game against them. Also, let's not forget the Bears ground game as they've been putting up decent numbers, entering Week 4 12th in NFL with 115.7 rushing yards per game.

I expect the Bears' defense to smother the Bucs offense and Chicago QB Trubisky to have a breakout game.
 

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BRAD DIAMOND
NFL | Sep 30, 2018
Dolphins vs. Patriots
OVER 48 -109

FREE NFL TOTAL SUNDAY...

USE THE FISH/PATS OVER THE TOTAL...

Miami (3-0) comes in red hot averaging 25 points per game, NE playing inconsistently is 1-2 averaging 19 points a game. This season the Dolphins are illustrating a balanced attack which has allowed for some outstanding scoring drives. The Patriots because of injuries and some discontent have been lackluster at times, but this is a critical game in their season, especially being at home. The main concern, offensively, has been their running game. Until they start measuring at least 125 yards consistently QB Brady will be under great pressure. As an example in 2017 (last meeting in the season) Miami won 27-20, the key holding NE to 25 yards on the ground. We all know Brady does not have an effective supporting cast, but that should spur more passing when not needed. From the injury standpoint, Miami has currently 5 questionable players for Sunday, 3 on the defense side. The Patriots show 6 questionable players, 3 on defense. From the technical board, we find Miami 5-0 OVER versus losing units and 5-1 OVER after rushing for under 90 yards. New England brings a solid 4-1 OVER mark in week #4 and 13-6 OVER at home against a winning road club. At first glance, the under might seem an angle, still we must incorporate the "turnover theory" because of the Pats needing to throw most every down and Miami playing a difficult game on the road. GL.
 

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MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Sep 30, 2018
Bengals vs. Falcons
Bengals+4

Play - Cincinnati Bengals (Game 255).

Edges - Bengals: 7-1 ATS as non-division road dogs off an away game … Falcons: 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS in 3rd home games of the season 6-1-1 ATS as a non-division dog in September, we recommend a 1* play on Cincinnati. Thank you and good luck as always.
 

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RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Sep 30, 2018
Udinese vs. Bologna
Draw+208

I think we see a draw when these two meet Sunday in Italy.

Bologna 1

Udinese 1
 

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JOHN MARTIN

1 Unit Bonus Play on New Orleans Saints -3

The Saints are remarkably healthy right now. They went and got a big win at Atlanta last week, and I think they’ll get another one this week against the New York Giants. The Giants are just 1-2 with losses to the Jaguars and Cowboys. They did beat the Texans last week, but the Texans are 0-3 and they were fortunate to win that game because they were actually outgained in that contest. Eli Manning looks washed up. There’s no way he can match Drew Brees score for score here, which is what he is going to need to do because the Giants aren’t going to stop the Saints. The Saints have been a better road bet than home bet of late because they’re always either laying short prices or an underdog on the road. The Saints are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games. The Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Give me Saints.
 

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MARK FRANCO
NFL | Sep 30, 2018
Jets vs. Jaguars
Jets+7½ -101

The Jacksonville Jaguars went from looking like Super Bowl contenders in a dominant victory over the New England Patriots in Week 2 to looking like a team that might finish at the bottom of the division in a lackluster Week 3 showing against Tennessee. The Jaguars will try to bounce back and reestablish themselves as an AFC contender when they host the New York Jets on Sunday.

Jacksonville moved to 2-0 by ripping the Patriots 31-20 but managed only 232 yards of total offense while dropping a key AFC South contest 9-6 at home to the Tennessee Titans last week.

The Jets went through similar Jekyll-and-Hyde issues through the first three weeks but got some extra time to clear their heads and fix some issues after a 21-17 loss at Cleveland on Thursday, Sep. 20.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-2): Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold gave New York fans some hope while completing 16 of his 21 pass attempts in a 48-17 win over Detroit in Week 1 but looked like a different quarterback while going 15-of-31 and throwing a pair of interceptions at Cleveland.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (2-1): Quarterback Blake Bortles threw for 376 yards and four TDs against the Patriots in Week 2 but was held to 155 yards while failing to find the end zone against Tennessee.

Jacksonville RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) sat out the last two games and remains questionable. Jaguars CB D.J. Hayden (toe) did not participate in practice this week and is doubtful.

Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. Jaguars are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game and are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games in September.
 

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ASA

PLAY ON Green Bay -9 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

So last Sunday Buffalo was a 17 point dog @ Minnesota and because they won now they are only a 9-point dog @ GB? We rate Minnesota and Green Bay almost identical in our power ratings and this swing in the line is too much. Let’s remember this Bills team lost by 40+ points at Baltimore and then lost by double digits at home to the Chargers before their win last week. This is historically a terrible spot for Buffalo. There have been 21 teams since 1980 that have won outright as an underdog of 14 or more points. Those teams are 4-17 SU and 4-15-2 ATS the following game. Buffalo had everything go right for them last week early on in building a 24-0 lead. Minnesota turned the ball over at their own 10 yard line and own 27 yard line their first two possessions of the game setting Buffalo up in prime scoring range. Bills rookie QB Josh Allen was able to be conservative with a big lead early and took very few chances. The Minnesota offense completely changed their game plan due to the early turnovers leading to Buffalo’s 24-0 lead as they Vikes ran the ball only 6 times the ENTIRE GAME. On the other side we get Green Bay in a very important home game after losing @ Washington last week. It wasn’t a big surprise (we were on the Skins) as the Packers had two huge division games previous to that with both going to the wire. A letdown was not a huge shock. Now it a must win with Rodgers is 69-46-3 ATS as a favorite and we fully expect Green Bay to bounce back big at home on Sunday. Lay it.
 

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