JETS WEREN’T READY FOR MAYFIELD
Baker Mayfield looked great in relief of Tyrod Taylor in Week 3. There’s no denying that. But Jets safety Jamal Adams had something interesting to say about it earlier this week: “We had to be open to knowing that Baker could come in, but we were prepared for Tyrod. When Baker came in, obviously we didn't have a game plan for him.”
It makes sense that the Jets didn’t plan for Mayfield. Taylor was the starter and Mayfield might not have touched the field had it not been for Taylor’s injury. Mayfield starts this week, however, and you can bet that Jon Gruden will have the Raiders ready for him. Reports out of Oakland are that Gruden is spending almost every waking moment studying game tapes. We mentioned earlier this week that we’re leaning on the Under for Mayfield’s passing-yards total of 260, mostly because coach Hue Jackson will continue to be run-first and not set Mayfield up for failure. Mayfield might have a great career, but bettors should expect a pedestrian debut. In addition to the passing-total Under, we’re also leaning towards the Raiders at -2.5.
ELI HITTING HIS STRIDE?
A funny thing happened last weekend: Eli Manning resembled a decent NFL quarterback! After two lackluster performances in Weeks 1 and 2, Manning led the Giants to their first win of the season in Houston with a line of 25 for 29, 297 yards, and two touchdowns. Yes, he was still sacked four times, bringing his season total to 12, but luckily for Manning, he’s playing the Saints this weekend.
After playing like a decent defensive unit last season, New Orleans has regressed this season and is currently 30th in the NFL, giving up 421 yards per game. The only team they’ve been able to slow was Tyrod Taylor’s Cleveland Browns, as the Buccaneers scored 48 against them and the Falcons put up 37. The Giants aren’t quite at the offensive level of Tampa Bay and Atlanta, but you could make the argument that their skill-position players are just as good, if not better. The other thing we can bank on in this game is that the Saints will score — they’re averaging just shy of 35 points per game. If Eli isn’t terrible in this one, it’s going to be a shootout, so we’re leaning towards the Over 50.5.
SLOW START IN ARIZONA?
In Week 1, Russell Wilson threw the ball 33 times and the Seahawks lost. In Week 2, 36 times and another loss. Then in Week 3, Wilson threw just 26 times and running back Chris Carson had 32 carries — and Seattle got its first win. We should have seen this coming, as coach Pete Carroll had this to say after the Week 2 loss: “I just got a little impatient and we threw the ball a little more than we needed to. I’m just owning up to it, I need to be a little less impatient.” Obviously, Carroll knows he needs to run to be successful and he’ll likely try to get the run game going early against Arizona on Sunday.
On the other sideline, rookie Josh Rosen makes his first start of the season. He did see the field for two drives last week and threw one interception and another pick-six that got called back due to a defensive penalty. Coach Steve Wilks is going to be very cautious with his play calling, especially early on, and that could mean a lot of David Johnson. With both teams leaning heavily on the run early, we’re going to take the Under 7.5 points for the first quarter.
CARSON TO CRUSH CARDINALS
There’s one sentence in the note above that we need to talk more about: Seahawks running back Chris Carson carried the ball 32 times last week. Heading into Week 2, Carson had just 13 carries on the season. The Seahawks made a commitment to the run and it worked; they controlled the game from start to finish and won.
As Carroll game plans for this week, he’s going to notice that the Cardinals aren’t great against the run. In fact, they’re terrible. They’re giving up 131.3 yards per game and have allowed a league-high five rushing touchdowns already. All signs point towards the Seahawks trying to control the game with the rush once again this week, so we’re going to go big by backing Carson to go Over 58.5 on his rushing total and to score a touchdown at any time.
FALCONS ARE HURTING
Atlanta’s defense is an absolute mess of injuries, with safety Ricardo Allen joining safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones with multiple-game injuries. Drew Brees took full advantage of this last week, posting 396 yards and three touchdowns. Cam Newton did the same in Week 2 with 335 yards and three touchdowns. This week, it’s Andy Dalton’s turn.
The Bengals’ quarterback looked bad with four interceptions last week against Carolina, but he still managed 352 yards through the air on 46 attempts. That happened to be his first full game without running back Joe Mixon, who is expected to miss this week as well. This game is primed to be a shootout with the game total set at 53.5, which means there should be plenty of passing once again from Dalton. Bettors should look to the Over 265.5 for his passing-yards total.
