SSI's MLB Plays: New System Today

[fhmesq44]

perfect, thanks. let's hope this continues.

 

[SSI]

shouldnt say this, but you make more money on game 2's and game 3's... of course the risk rises of a sweep also..

however, i have always felt the road team --- laying the 1.5 runs, was a good bet... never felt that way with the home team........ 2 reasons... number one, road team is guaranteed 9 AB's...... also road team can keep piling on the runs in extra inning games, where the home team will usually win by 1 (unless a walkoff HR occurs)...

 

[fhmesq44]

Right, conversely, the home team wins more often and is swept less often. Did you figure out how many road sweeps (at -1.5) each team had last year?

 

[heart222]

to repeatmy self there is no stat dvantage to playing games 2 and 3 in martingale format. muc hbetter if you just play as game 1.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

no dispute here when it comes playing road teams - 1.5 compared to home teams. no question about the advantages that 9 at bats brings.

maybe you should incorporate a little bit of what tony did with throwing out certain teams.

tampa bay only covered - 1.5 in 12 of 25 series.
detroit was 15 of 24
kansas city was 12 of 25.

only took 3 or 4 game series into account.

balt 17/25
bost 23/25
nyy 20/25
tor 22/25
cws 20/24
clev 21/24
minn 20/25

you have -700 for every lost series . so you lost 3500 with minnesota's 5 losses . need $ 175 payback on the other 20 .

would say you got it no problem seeing as 10 of their wins came in game 2 .

throw out the bottom feeders and play the other 22 or 23 teams all season .

hope you dont mind me discussing this topic and throwing numbers in.

 

[maidenguy]

SSI, always like your thinking. Heart brings up a great point. SSI, take your past testing and how would you of done by betting only game 1 of a series but taking the average bet of the 1-2-4 series and taking the average bet and betting only Game 1. You would have to find the average bet because some series bets will end with only betting 1 unit, some 3 units and some 7 units in your past testing.Good luck.

 

[trains40]

What Does Arl Mean?

 

[ats247]

alternate run line

 

[fhmesq44]

no dispute here when it comes playing road teams - 1.5 compared to home teams. no question about the advantages that 9 at bats brings.

maybe you should incorporate a little bit of what tony did with throwing out certain teams.

tampa bay only covered - 1.5 in 12 of 25 series.
detroit was 15 of 24
kansas city was 12 of 25.

only took 3 or 4 game series into account.

balt 17/25
bost 23/25
nyy 20/25
tor 22/25
cws 20/24
clev 21/24
minn 20/25

you have -700 for every lost series . so you lost 3500 with minnesota's 5 losses . need $ 175 payback on the other 20 .

would say you got it no problem seeing as 10 of their wins came in game 2 .

throw out the bottom feeders and play the other 22 or 23 teams all season .

hope you dont mind me discussing this topic and throwing numbers in.

I just reviewed last year as well and there are some bad losers here. Colorado failed to win a road game by 2 in 15 of their 25 series. Cincy was 15-10, Detroit 16-10. Either those teams have to be ditched, or, simply take them on the ML when they are dogs and only take the favorites on the alt RL.

 

[Sekrah]

Detroit and arguably Cincy are better teams than they were last year.

Now what do you do if you toss them out fhmesq44?

 

[fhmesq44]

WNO, where are you getting those numbers so quickly?

 

[fhmesq44]

Detroit and arguably Cincy are better teams than they were last year.

Now what do you do if you toss them out fhmesq44?

I mean to ditch the shitty teams, not necessarily the ones that stunk last year.

 

[fhmesq44]

At this point, I would ditch KC, Florida and Pittsburgh and see how it plays out. Those teams are absolutely dogshit, there may be more like Wash, Cincy, Colorado, Detroit, TB and Arizona.

 

[SSI]

world, dont mind discussing it at all..

and guys dont take this the wrong way........ but you can play it any way that you want...

i just hope SD holds on...

and the fact of the matter is, its 24-6 (+33 units) over the first week this year... and week 2 has started rather nicely..

plenty of time to see how it unfolds... and last years stats are just that "last years stats"...

and i mean nothing offensive by any of that...

ive got my money laid on the table today and ill lay it there again tomorrow. lets see how it does..

 

[fhmesq44]

Understood. I am definitely interested and I have my money on SD and the night games as well. I think I am going to give it a shot leaving out the shitty teams and taking dogs on the ML. Best of luck.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

WNO, where are you getting those numbers so quickly?

covers.com

go to mlb teams . then under each team their are previous results .

i only looked at 3 or 4 game series.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

At this point, I would ditch KC, Florida and Pittsburgh and see how it plays out. Those teams are absolutely dogshit, there may be more like Wash, Cincy, Colorado, Detroit, TB and Arizona.

the only way i lay 1.5 with pitt, wash, fla, kc and tampa is if they are playing each other .

 

[SSI]

probably a nice idea fhemq: however the bad teams is where the nice paybacks are going to come from...

look what KC paid today, and they had them..... ill be back on them tomorrow for 2 units...

i would almost go as far to say, that you should never play a road team on the ML... count in the payback on the runline and ill almost bet the profit is greater... i did say almost, as im not looking at any numbers..

 

[CollegeFan]

SSI -- Perhaps this would take way too much time, but it would be very interesting to see how this system worked last year.

Would that be possible? I'm assuming lines from last year's games are available somewhere (obviously there is some variation on baseball lines), but maybe it's worth a look...

 

[WorldNumberOne]

when you are losing over 50 % of the time when backing kc or tampa , the payback isnt worth it .