SSI's MLB Plays: New System Today

[SSI]

YTD RX POSTED

Sides: 16-20 (-7.40 units) (-$740)
R/L's: 0-1 (-1.00) (-$100)
Totals: 6-3 (+2.68 units) (+$268)

Plays for tuesday: april 11th

Mets R/L (+1.40) 1 unit
Oak R/L (+1.40) 1 unit
SD ARL (+1.65) 1 unit
Col ARL (+1.78) 1 unit
Hou ARL (+2.35) 1 unit
KC ARL (+3.53) 1 unit
Tor ARL (+2.70) 1 unit
Sea ARL (+2.20) 1 unit
Cinn ARL (+1.90) 1 unit
Tex ARL (+2.30) 2 units

ok, ive stated that im going to use the first month of the season to figure out how i want to play the entire season.. this is progressive system in a 1-2-4 format, that plays the dog to cover the R/L in one game of each series.. Once this happens its a series win.. Maximum risk on almost all series is 7 units.. payback on game 2's and 3 of this series could be huge. example TB beats Hallady on the alt runline sunday, paysback 3:1 on a 4 unit play, series cleared 9 units for TB...

system record for first week of season: 24-6 (+33 units), thats right (+33 units).. anything showing this kind of promise is worth a shot.. week 2 has started with 3 winning series already.. my plays are simply picking up now, with Texas as a 2 unit play..

ive got the money to try this and am willing to do so... maximum loss today is $1100.. and thats possbile, but ive got enough cash to come back tomorrow with 2 unit plays..

best of luck..

 

[SSI]

btw, 6 of the 10 games, Olympic had the better line than pinnacle..

note to insiders: i know the streak thing will work, ive got it filed to go back to.. im working thru things with $100 bets. will decide by months end, what to do..

 

[SSI]

anyone having trouble understanding this.. look at the texas series.. they lose game 1 (1 unit loss), they win tonight on th alt runline and because its a 2 unit bet, you win +4.60 units, - the 1 unit from game 1, so series clears +3.6 units.. and of course if game 2 loses, you bet game 3 for 4 units, where profits could be even greater.... of course a loss here and its a -7 unit series loss..

will it work? ( dont know), guess we will find out over the next week..

 

[Insiders]

Found myself on the NYM, Cubs and Cubs over, last but not least Col.

Cubs over was just a number play as i knew the wind was going to be out at gail force, caught the good number of 11.5, now lets see if it wins.

Hate starting the week 0-2 also!

 

[SSI]

Mistakingly wrote "dog to cover RL".............. meant to say "ROAD Team" to cover the RL or alt RL........ there is a big difference............. road teams are meant to be played on the RL..... many advantages to it...

 

[WorldNumberOne]

i think from a risk mgmt. standpoint you should go:

1
1.5
2

as your progression.

ex: saying every game in the series would be - 1.5 + 180 for the road team

100/180 L
150/270 L W = + 170
200/360 L W = + 110

you have risked 450 instead of 700 ...

you could even do a 1-1-150 and only risk 250 total

road teams have won by 2 in 12/16 in the NL . and 12/14 in AL the first week of the year.

you would need to clear 150 a series at 6 out of 8 to break even with the 100-150-200 progression.

you will need to clear 235 a series at 6 out of 8 with a 1-2-4 theory.

and i wouldnt count on any more than a 77 or 78 % win rate as it pertains to a road covering 1.5 some time during the series.

 

[SSI]

payback isnt there, in your reasoning..... the big hit comes when the 3rd game cashes...... 2nd is pretty good as well....... to each his own..

 

[WorldNumberOne]

youre right . payback isnt there . neither is a $ 700.00 loss .

good luck.

 

[SSI]

compare $450 to $700...... then compare $900 to $350...

we'll see how it goes..

 

[BJordan05]

I use pinnacle and am confused by this ARL. For instance, using seattle as an example, the RL is +1.5 -153 odds.

When i click to buy a different run line, it goes to +2.5 and -261, so could you explain to me how you are getting these odds?

TY.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

you will never net 900 on any series. the most you get back after winning a 3rd game will probably be in the $ 400 to $ 450 range. after deducting your 300 in losses from game 1 and 2.

the big payoffs will only come when you sit back and hope the 5 or 6 worst teams in baseball can win a road game by 2 .

ex: tampa bay only won a road game by 2 or more in 12 of 25 series last year.

good luck . hope it works for ya.

not bashing . just discussing.

 

[SSI]

way wrong wno,,,,,,,, payback when playing 4 units on an alt runline will be +12 units many time...... KC today was (+3.50) so if this was game three of the set and they happen to win, you would have won +14 units, minus the 3 units from game 1 and 2.. so you would net +11 units.... TB paid something like this -- this past sunday, when they beat Hallady...

Dude, simply go to pinnacle and click on alt runline on front page..

 

[fhmesq44]

Mistakingly wrote "dog to cover RL".............. meant to say "ROAD Team" to cover the RL or alt RL........ there is a big difference............. road teams are meant to be played on the RL..... many advantages to it...

SSI, you mean to bet the road team on the ML if they are dog and RL if they are favorite, correct? What happens if you are on the RL and the road team wins by 1? Double up again as it is a loss?

 

[SSI]

no, i mean play the road team at (-1.5) always....... if they are the dog to start with, you must use the alt runline,,, which is listed on the front page at pinnacle, right under the mlb line..

play one unit on game one of series, if you win,,,,,,,,,, stop... youve won your money......... if you lose ----- play 2 units on game 2 of series...... if you lose that, play 4 units on game 3 of set........ max loss is 7 units.....

do not use ML, use (-1.5).... not (+1.5)............(-1.5).. this is called an ALTERNATE RUNLINE.

 

[fhmesq44]

Ok, got it. Thought I recalled you saying yesterday only take RL if favorite was roadie.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

exactly what i just said . only the worst teams will net you those big numbers.

take out kc today and your average arl is + 194 .

you should use + 200 as an average ARL . now look at last year and see how many times a road team won by 2 .

figure out how many out of 25 road series you will need to cover to make money.

yanks were 20-5 .. and they were no way + 200 on the ARL . you needed to net + 175 per winning series to break even with them.
17 of their wins came by game 2 .

balt was 17-8 .

tor was 22-3 . a money maker

bost was 23-2 . another money maker.

 

[HansGruber]

This looks really interesting to me. Question: are you playing every series around MLB or are you picking matchups that look especially promising?

 

[SSI]

playing all of them...

there will be 30 series each week..

week 1: 24-6 (+33 units) as one of the losses was only a 2 game series. KC/DET

week 2: 5 series are now closed.. assuming reds hold on... these ended on game 1 of the series.. 5 series lost the first game (assuming tor is a loser).. there are 5 more game 1's pending..

but look at tex/ana..... tex (-1.5) lost last night, so tonight is a 2 unit play... if texas wins, then you win +4.60 units tonight as payback is (+2.30) and then subtract the one unit from last night.. so you win +3.6 units..

 

[fhmesq44]

SSI, what happens when a team like NYY is on the road at KC and say -130 on the RL?

 

[SSI]

skip it.. im only playing (plus juice) on this one.. or play one of the games or 2 of the games,,,, and also in a 4 game set.. i would play game 4 to just get even... this happened in the pitt/cinn series...