The power ratings on statfox do not include the 4 pts. They make us do the work :>)
Not to misquote STLfan, as I said to take the favorite in the "wrong team favored situations" of only better National teams. I should of just said "better teams"/ We must also check to see that it wasn't just steam that caused this sititaion to happen also.
Have you went through all the teams?
I found the play.
:toast:
I realize SF doesn't include the 4 points. I'm saying that it is figured into the spread therefore, if we add the 4 points, the home team would be getting 8 points. I don't know if that makes sense. Regardless, I'm not a good numbers guy so I'll sit back and see if he responds. Thanks for going through all the teams! You may just have it :toast:
There you go! Right game wrong side! LOL.....Now, as you are all aware and for those of you who paid attention last night when I spoke of New Mexico st....? "Think about what I am saying" (post #70) Remember? The number 2 is key number. I was giving everyone New Mexico st last night! But another key in these 1-2.5 pt games is the ML...I am not afraid to lay the juice when I have the right side! A square always lays the points because he is afraid of the juice and has been "programmed" not to lay it! Its like a when they take the "dog" they want to take the moneyline for "Value"? "Value" doesn't win games! Taking the points does! These plays are best when you play teams 75 and bet them on the ML. New Mexico st was not in this category yesterday other than the key number -2. I like -2 because u can buy it down to -1.5 if the favorite is the right side(cheap) and up to +2.5 if the dog is the right side. It does happen quite a bit like last night...New Mexico St and Louisiana Tech were winners if played properly. Now, I am not suggesting you try to hit both at all. I am just explaining another point of view...The books don't like -2....Get it! And further "West" should have done it fellas..........ML........Saturday Georgetown Winner, Dayton Winner, UNLV Winner, Wash st Winner......Tonight ..........Winner!
Making mistakes is how you learn. They call it experience. I call it expensive! LOL....So I am very "experienced"! LOL....Good looking out but again this is not it and be very careful about playing this situation with a road favorite....However, in this situation look at the opener......Illinois st was +1 and that is when I bet it! As well as quite a few others it appears cuz it has "Steamed" to -1.5.....If you did not get it cheap at a pick I would recommend passing. I did play it at +1 this morning so it may win and cover the -1.5 but this does not fit as the a "Flip" because it is a Road Favorite, however, a very good play today at the right number!
<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 183pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="244"><col style="width: 151pt;" width="201"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="43"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 151pt;" width="201" height="20">Houston</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="43">77</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">W Kentucky -2</td> <td x:num="" align="right">75</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Told you I was mistake prone today
But isn't Illinois State a play as well?
Illinois St -1.5 75
Bradley 76
DISREGARD,
I just read your post above, THANKS!
I just don't get it, I give up. Thanks for all your trying to help but my brain that has been through a blender seemingly and I just can't grasp it. I'm a writer, whichever side of the brain that is, and the other side doesn't work.
hno:
No worries.
We basically are going against the conventional way of using the Statfox Power Ratings. The exception is when the lower power rating is the favorite- for the NBA we take the DOG, and for CBB we take the favorite, but for better teams only. We also must watch the lines for steam moves which could affect these situations.
:toast:
Very good question! I think PF has been using 2 or more but the straight answer is it varies from time to time and there is not a definite number it is a guide so track it and see what you think...As a start 2-3 is generally good when you get 6 or more it gets confusing...Why??? Try to find out. Is there injuries, discipline, road trips, strippers etc.....lol...There is usually a reason if not and you put a gun to my head I would go with "there is a reason Milwaukee is only -8. The actuaries are alot smarter than I, so it must be.......Detroit! But that is not enough to wager on a game for me...... In the end we all use our best judgement! Good Luck
