Sam Martin
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals 7:05PM
5* Arizona Diamondbacks
Reason: 5* Play on Arizona. Diamondbacks are a huge underdog today, and we think that +200 payout is worth the risk here giving the D'Backs a coin-flip's chance at winning this game. Washington ace Stephen Strasburg has been heavily overvalued by the linesmakers all season long and they continue to overprice him despite his even 13-13 team start record - netting a loss of 6.2 units overall this year.
Don't get us wrong - we do think Strasburg is a good pitcher, but simply not worth this price. Arizona's Chase Anderson comes into this game with a better winning percentage, a better TSR winning percentage, and a better ERA on the year in this pitching matchup. Strasburg pitched pretty well but still took the loss in the only season-matchup against the D'Backs this season, and at this price we'll back Arizona looking for them to sneak out a huge underdog win! 5* Play on Arizona.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals 7:05PM
5* Arizona Diamondbacks
Reason: 5* Play on Arizona. Diamondbacks are a huge underdog today, and we think that +200 payout is worth the risk here giving the D'Backs a coin-flip's chance at winning this game. Washington ace Stephen Strasburg has been heavily overvalued by the linesmakers all season long and they continue to overprice him despite his even 13-13 team start record - netting a loss of 6.2 units overall this year.
Don't get us wrong - we do think Strasburg is a good pitcher, but simply not worth this price. Arizona's Chase Anderson comes into this game with a better winning percentage, a better TSR winning percentage, and a better ERA on the year in this pitching matchup. Strasburg pitched pretty well but still took the loss in the only season-matchup against the D'Backs this season, and at this price we'll back Arizona looking for them to sneak out a huge underdog win! 5* Play on Arizona.
MLB Early-week betting cheat sheet: Brewers doing AL-right
Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for the early-week major-league games:
Rocky Mountain High?
The Colorado Rockies (-103, O 9.5) may be back to their old selves after posting a 10-5 victory over the visiting Cincinnati Reds on Sunday afternoon. Colorado scored 29 runs while taking three of four from the Reds, and are 4-1 O/U over their last five games.
Seattle Struggling as Road Fave
The Seattle Mariners (-156, 8.5) will try to buck a disheartening recent trend - and strengthen their American League wild-card chances - as they visit Philadelphia on Monday. The Mariners are just 1-4 in their last five games as a road fave dating back to early July.
Brewers Digging Interleague Play
The Milwaukee Brewers resume interleague play Tuesday night as they open a series with the visiting Toronto Blue Jays. Milwaukee is an impressive 10-8 against American League foes so far in 2014 after going a combined 18-32 in interleague action the previous three seasons.
Pitching Notes
* Chris Sale has been solid as a heavy favorite this season - a trend he hopes to continue Monday as he leads the Chicago White Sox (-149, 7) against visiting Baltimore. Sale is 10-1 as a fave of -148 or better, with his only loss coming August 6 at -225 versus the Texas Rangers.
* It has been a tale of two halves for Cincinnati Reds hurler Alfredo Simon, who gets the call Tuesday night against host St. Louis. Simon went 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA before the All-Star break, but is just 0-5 with an unsightly 5.46 ERA in six starts since.
Hitting Notes
* Luis Valbuena may be the Chicago Cubs' secret weapon Monday as they tangle with the host New York Mets (-131, 6.5). Valbuena has a pair of home runs and three RBIs in five career at-bats against the Mets' Monday starter, Bartolo Colon.
* Ben Zobrist will have his hands full Tuesday night as he and the Tampa Bay Rays host Max Scherzer and the Detroit Tigers. Zobrist is just 2-for-18 with a home run in his career versus Scherzer, including an 0-for-4 showing in their last encounter July 3 in Detroit.
Totals Streak
Los Angeles Angels (2-8 O/U): The Angels have made low-scoring close games a habit, putting together an impressive string of Unders while seeing five of their last seven contests decided by a single run. Los Angeles is 59-58-5 O/U for the season.
Prop of the Day
Bettors may want to add some runs to the Royals-Twins total Monday; they'll get +210 for a total of 10.5. The Royals rank first in the majors this month in runs (81) and batting average (.280), with the Twins right behind them in both categories (80, .277).
Injury Notes
* Tampa Bay outfielder David DeJesus hopes to continue his minor-league rehab assignment Wednesday after soreness in his fractured left hand forced him to take a break. The Rays are 33-18 SU, 20-27-4 O/U and +1,179 units with DeJesus on the sidelines.
* Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (thumb) had two hits in his final minor-league rehab assignment Sunday and will be in the Cincinnati lineup Monday. The Reds went 12-21 SU, 15-17-1 O/U and -1,118 units with Phillips out of action.
Weather Watch
* Wind at U.S. Cellular Field will blow in from left field at 11 mph for the game between the host White Sox and Baltimore. Teams combined to hit .267 with 1.80 home runs in five games under similar conditions in 2013 - slightly above stadium averages.
Umpire Note of the Day
The road team is 8-2 in umpire Adrian Johnson's last 10 games behind home plate. Johnson will be calling the balls and strikes for Monday's game between the Cubs and the Mets.
Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for the early-week major-league games:
Rocky Mountain High?
The Colorado Rockies (-103, O 9.5) may be back to their old selves after posting a 10-5 victory over the visiting Cincinnati Reds on Sunday afternoon. Colorado scored 29 runs while taking three of four from the Reds, and are 4-1 O/U over their last five games.
Seattle Struggling as Road Fave
The Seattle Mariners (-156, 8.5) will try to buck a disheartening recent trend - and strengthen their American League wild-card chances - as they visit Philadelphia on Monday. The Mariners are just 1-4 in their last five games as a road fave dating back to early July.
Brewers Digging Interleague Play
The Milwaukee Brewers resume interleague play Tuesday night as they open a series with the visiting Toronto Blue Jays. Milwaukee is an impressive 10-8 against American League foes so far in 2014 after going a combined 18-32 in interleague action the previous three seasons.
Pitching Notes
* Chris Sale has been solid as a heavy favorite this season - a trend he hopes to continue Monday as he leads the Chicago White Sox (-149, 7) against visiting Baltimore. Sale is 10-1 as a fave of -148 or better, with his only loss coming August 6 at -225 versus the Texas Rangers.
* It has been a tale of two halves for Cincinnati Reds hurler Alfredo Simon, who gets the call Tuesday night against host St. Louis. Simon went 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA before the All-Star break, but is just 0-5 with an unsightly 5.46 ERA in six starts since.
Hitting Notes
* Luis Valbuena may be the Chicago Cubs' secret weapon Monday as they tangle with the host New York Mets (-131, 6.5). Valbuena has a pair of home runs and three RBIs in five career at-bats against the Mets' Monday starter, Bartolo Colon.
* Ben Zobrist will have his hands full Tuesday night as he and the Tampa Bay Rays host Max Scherzer and the Detroit Tigers. Zobrist is just 2-for-18 with a home run in his career versus Scherzer, including an 0-for-4 showing in their last encounter July 3 in Detroit.
Totals Streak
Los Angeles Angels (2-8 O/U): The Angels have made low-scoring close games a habit, putting together an impressive string of Unders while seeing five of their last seven contests decided by a single run. Los Angeles is 59-58-5 O/U for the season.
Prop of the Day
Bettors may want to add some runs to the Royals-Twins total Monday; they'll get +210 for a total of 10.5. The Royals rank first in the majors this month in runs (81) and batting average (.280), with the Twins right behind them in both categories (80, .277).
Injury Notes
* Tampa Bay outfielder David DeJesus hopes to continue his minor-league rehab assignment Wednesday after soreness in his fractured left hand forced him to take a break. The Rays are 33-18 SU, 20-27-4 O/U and +1,179 units with DeJesus on the sidelines.
* Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (thumb) had two hits in his final minor-league rehab assignment Sunday and will be in the Cincinnati lineup Monday. The Reds went 12-21 SU, 15-17-1 O/U and -1,118 units with Phillips out of action.
Weather Watch
* Wind at U.S. Cellular Field will blow in from left field at 11 mph for the game between the host White Sox and Baltimore. Teams combined to hit .267 with 1.80 home runs in five games under similar conditions in 2013 - slightly above stadium averages.
Umpire Note of the Day
The road team is 8-2 in umpire Adrian Johnson's last 10 games behind home plate. Johnson will be calling the balls and strikes for Monday's game between the Cubs and the Mets.
Game of the Day: Angels at Red Sox
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox (129,9)
Los Angeles Angels standout Mike Trout arrived in Boston with one hit in his previous five games but the sight of Fenway Park awoke him from his slumber. Trout collected a pair of hits and an RBI to improve to 15-for-32 in seven career games in Boston as the Angels won the opener of a four-game series against the Red Sox. Los Angeles right-hander Jered Weaver will be out to avenge a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Boston and Allen Webster 11 days ago in Tuesday's matchup.
The Angels, winners of five of six overall, moved to 7-2 in their last nine at Fenway to take a half-game lead in the American League West. Josh Hamilton, who has five hits and 18 strikeouts in his last 38 at-bats, could return to their starting lineup after sitting out the past two games - the first per his own request. While Los Angeles owns the best record in the majors, the Red Sox continue to stumble at Fenway Park - dropping eight of their last 11 at home.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, FSN West (Los Angeles), NESN (Boston)
LINE HISTORY: Station Casinos opened the Red Sox as +130 home dogs. The total has opened at 9.
INJURY WATCH: Angels: LF Grant Green (Out, Back) Red Sox: 2B Dustin Pedroia (Questionable, Illness), C David Ross (Questionable, Foot)
POWER RANKINGS: Angels (-201), Red Sox (-117)
PITCHING MATCHUP: Angels RH Jered Weaver (13-7, 3.66 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Allen Webster (3-1, 4.79)
Weaver had a nine-start unbeaten streak snapped by Boston on Aug. 8, when he surrendering four runs and seven hits over six innings to drop to 4-6 lifetime in 15 career starts against the Red Sox. Weaver bounced back to limit Philadelphia to two runs over six innings on Wednesday to improve to 6-1 in his last 11 turns. Former teammate Mike Napoli has tormented Weaver, collecting 10 hits and hitting three homers in 29 at-bats.
Webster has won his last two starts, although Boston's offense bailed him out of a four-run deficit in a victory over Houston last time out. He had his best outing of the season against the Angels earlier this month, allowing two runs on four hits over 6 2/3 innings. The biggest issue for the hard-throwing Webster is control, or lack thereof - he has walked 16 and struck out only 10 over 20 2/3 innings in his four starts.
TRENDS:
*Angels are 7-1 in Weavers last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
*Red Sox are 1-4 in Websters last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 8-2 in Websters last 10 starts on grass.
*Over is 6-1 in Weavers last 7 road starts vs. Red Sox.
CONSENSUS: 61 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the Angels.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox (129,9)
Los Angeles Angels standout Mike Trout arrived in Boston with one hit in his previous five games but the sight of Fenway Park awoke him from his slumber. Trout collected a pair of hits and an RBI to improve to 15-for-32 in seven career games in Boston as the Angels won the opener of a four-game series against the Red Sox. Los Angeles right-hander Jered Weaver will be out to avenge a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Boston and Allen Webster 11 days ago in Tuesday's matchup.
The Angels, winners of five of six overall, moved to 7-2 in their last nine at Fenway to take a half-game lead in the American League West. Josh Hamilton, who has five hits and 18 strikeouts in his last 38 at-bats, could return to their starting lineup after sitting out the past two games - the first per his own request. While Los Angeles owns the best record in the majors, the Red Sox continue to stumble at Fenway Park - dropping eight of their last 11 at home.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, FSN West (Los Angeles), NESN (Boston)
LINE HISTORY: Station Casinos opened the Red Sox as +130 home dogs. The total has opened at 9.
INJURY WATCH: Angels: LF Grant Green (Out, Back) Red Sox: 2B Dustin Pedroia (Questionable, Illness), C David Ross (Questionable, Foot)
POWER RANKINGS: Angels (-201), Red Sox (-117)
PITCHING MATCHUP: Angels RH Jered Weaver (13-7, 3.66 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Allen Webster (3-1, 4.79)
Weaver had a nine-start unbeaten streak snapped by Boston on Aug. 8, when he surrendering four runs and seven hits over six innings to drop to 4-6 lifetime in 15 career starts against the Red Sox. Weaver bounced back to limit Philadelphia to two runs over six innings on Wednesday to improve to 6-1 in his last 11 turns. Former teammate Mike Napoli has tormented Weaver, collecting 10 hits and hitting three homers in 29 at-bats.
Webster has won his last two starts, although Boston's offense bailed him out of a four-run deficit in a victory over Houston last time out. He had his best outing of the season against the Angels earlier this month, allowing two runs on four hits over 6 2/3 innings. The biggest issue for the hard-throwing Webster is control, or lack thereof - he has walked 16 and struck out only 10 over 20 2/3 innings in his four starts.
TRENDS:
*Angels are 7-1 in Weavers last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
*Red Sox are 1-4 in Websters last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 8-2 in Websters last 10 starts on grass.
*Over is 6-1 in Weavers last 7 road starts vs. Red Sox.
CONSENSUS: 61 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the Angels.
Andre Gomes | MLB Money Line
MLB Pick #1: 951 Atlanta Braves @ 952 Pittsburgh Pirates
(Starting Pitchers: A. Harang vs. F. Liriano)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: 952 Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ -145 / 1.69 on BetOnline
The Pirates yesterday the first game of the series and I expect them to bounce back tonight in a favorable matchup for them.
ATL's SP A. Harang has been struggling for a while. In his L4 starts, he had FIP numbers all worst than 4.00 and his control has been terrible as of late as well - I have him w/ 12.5% K% vs. 9.4% BB% in this second half of season. PIT's offense has been one of the best in this second half of season, particularly against RHP's and they will have Andrew McCutchen back in the lineup tonight.
On the other end, PIT's SP Francisco Liriano is coming from a decent start vs. DET. I had a play against him because he was facing a top3 offense vs. LHP's and DET had Max Scherzer on the mound, but still, he was pretty good w/ 2 ER's allowed in 6IP's & 9K's! Liriano has an insane 29.2% K% rate in this second half season and this bodes well against ATL's K' prone lineup even though they are a good offense vs. LHP's this season.
We have a great pitching mismatch favoring PIT IMO, while w/ McCutchen back, PIT is also a top offensive team vs. RHP's and therefore, I'm taking them tonight.
MLB Pick #1: 951 Atlanta Braves @ 952 Pittsburgh Pirates
(Starting Pitchers: A. Harang vs. F. Liriano)
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: 952 Pittsburgh Pirates ML @ -145 / 1.69 on BetOnline
The Pirates yesterday the first game of the series and I expect them to bounce back tonight in a favorable matchup for them.
ATL's SP A. Harang has been struggling for a while. In his L4 starts, he had FIP numbers all worst than 4.00 and his control has been terrible as of late as well - I have him w/ 12.5% K% vs. 9.4% BB% in this second half of season. PIT's offense has been one of the best in this second half of season, particularly against RHP's and they will have Andrew McCutchen back in the lineup tonight.
On the other end, PIT's SP Francisco Liriano is coming from a decent start vs. DET. I had a play against him because he was facing a top3 offense vs. LHP's and DET had Max Scherzer on the mound, but still, he was pretty good w/ 2 ER's allowed in 6IP's & 9K's! Liriano has an insane 29.2% K% rate in this second half season and this bodes well against ATL's K' prone lineup even though they are a good offense vs. LHP's this season.
We have a great pitching mismatch favoring PIT IMO, while w/ McCutchen back, PIT is also a top offensive team vs. RHP's and therefore, I'm taking them tonight.
NonStopSportsPicks
2* Atlanta/Pitt UNDER 7.5, EVEN
Taking the UNDER here with NO juice. Why? Because, first of all, what happened last night? Easy OVER. So tonight should be easy too, right? Not so much, that's what they WANT us to think. So we're going opposite. Harang, I'm looking for him to bounce back, and Liriano is just a different pitcher at home (MUCH better). We've got the best of this #, and we're taking the UNDER here.
2* Atlanta/Pitt UNDER 7.5, EVEN
Taking the UNDER here with NO juice. Why? Because, first of all, what happened last night? Easy OVER. So tonight should be easy too, right? Not so much, that's what they WANT us to think. So we're going opposite. Harang, I'm looking for him to bounce back, and Liriano is just a different pitcher at home (MUCH better). We've got the best of this #, and we're taking the UNDER here.
Diamond Dog Sports
#955: Giants: +105 (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Vogelsong/Wada
#961: Astros: +145 (2.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Oberholtzer/Cupuano
#951/952: Braves/Pirates: Under 7.0 (+110) (3.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Harang/Liriano
#957/958: Reds/Cardinals: Over 7.5 (-105) (0.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Simon/Lackey
#955: Giants: +105 (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Vogelsong/Wada
#961: Astros: +145 (2.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Oberholtzer/Cupuano
#951/952: Braves/Pirates: Under 7.0 (+110) (3.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Harang/Liriano
#957/958: Reds/Cardinals: Over 7.5 (-105) (0.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Simon/Lackey
