Is there a capper that picks purely underdogs? (and has a decent record)
I stop in at the RX on occassion, primarily to see what the touts are heavily favoring so I can either go against or jump off a play that there is a heavy consensus on. I decided to back date the tout consensus (started this about 2 weeks ago a little each day) and found that fading the touts heavy consensus can be very profittable. NO explanation as to why it works out but these numbers do not lie:
Fading strong consensus of touts in MLB since day 1 has produced approximately 90 winners and 77 losers (54%). 54% is good but not great. However, peel the onion a little further:
Of the 167 games all but 13 were DOGS. The 13 favs never had a juice over -120 and average less than -110.
The 90W and 77L equate to nearly $2600 profit if betting $100 per game
If you adjust the record based on a standard of -110 juice vs the profit you will see that the record is at 60% equivalent. I will also note that I rounded DOWN on every play so that this is a LOW estimate. Realistically you could have profitted at least 10cents extra on each of the 90 winners which would have netted more like $3500 or 62% equivalent.
Let me qualify this by saying my definition of a heavy consensus is based on
1. At least 2:1 touts on one side
2. Must be at least a 5 tout difference (8-4 is double but not more than 5 so does not qualify, but 8-3 does)
3. No more than 5 touts on the other side even if rule 1 and 2 apply. So 13-6 would not qualify under the 3rd criteria although it does pass the first two.
These were guidelines I attempted to follow. I ignored who the touts were and what their track record was, hell I don't know who more than a few are anyway.
I decided to do this for a couple reasons:
1. Noticed at another site that people were fading a heavy wagerline consensus with success....so why not the touts
2. Seemed everytime there was a lot of "touting" for a play it ended up losing.
3. My own curiousity and thought it might be a tool to help me make a final decision on a play. I can say it has saved me money by being armed with this information.
One last thing, there were a few days where the information was not available (the site I pulled the info did not do the tally and I did not take the time to do one myself), but I can tell you it is VERY accurate and a solid snapshot and a large enough sample to make some conclusions.
Sorry to take up so much space but I thought it was info worth sharing.
Best of luck with you plays RX