Its all just information for us to use how we choose, after all...
Even if the wisemen, computer crusher, Sean Michaels, Vegas Runner, Indian Cowboy, etc. were all on the same -180 favorite that wouldn't make me run out and lay the money - however, if I had a big play on the dog in that game it might make me reconsider...
Like others have said, if you want to tail others it's best to find someone whose skills and track record you believe in and stick with them so that eventually their track record becomes your own...
I have to admit that if I were getting paid to make guaranteed selections, my first priority would be picking a winner (regardless of odds) so that I wasn't giving any refunds...
Even if the wisemen, computer crusher, Sean Michaels, Vegas Runner, Indian Cowboy, etc. were all on the same -180 favorite that wouldn't make me run out and lay the money - however, if I had a big play on the dog in that game it might make me reconsider...
Like others have said, if you want to tail others it's best to find someone whose skills and track record you believe in and stick with them so that eventually their track record becomes your own...
I have to admit that if I were getting paid to make guaranteed selections, my first priority would be picking a winner (regardless of odds) so that I wasn't giving any refunds...
ope::money8: 
If you guys can do better please post in the BB forum!
My fellow brothers have been chipping in their hard earned money so we can all have a shot of building our bankroll while personally minimizing our expense for selections.There are bettors on this thread that won't or can't buy selections yet it never ceases to amaze me that they are quick to offer up their two cents about how easy it is to handicap sports by just picking the favorites every day.If you are so confident in your handicapping abilities why do you insist on watching what is posted in this thread every day?Go start your own thread in the BB forum & we will see how good you really are!
My fellow brothers have been chipping in their hard earned money so we can all have a shot of building our bankroll while personally minimizing our expense for selections.There are bettors on this thread that won't or can't buy selections yet it never ceases to amaze me that they are quick to offer up their two cents about how easy it is to handicap sports by just picking the favorites every day.If you are so confident in your handicapping abilities why do you insist on watching what is posted in this thread every day?Go start your own thread in the BB forum & we will see how good you really are!
Ferrall
AL FREE B's FOR TUESDAY
Minnesota -125 on ML over Texas--The Twins send Glen Perkins to the hill against Doug Mathis, who's making his fist career start. TAKE THE OVER 9.5 RUNS. Perkins, the lefty, has made two starts for the Twins and allowed only two earned runs in his last outing.
CLEVELAND -125 on ML over Chicago--CC Sabathia has looked sharp lately. He's 3-2 in his last five starts after starting the season 0-3. He's allowed one run in last 16 innings. The White Sox have won five straight. Sabbathia is 14-3 in his career vs the White Sox and 7-0 in Chicago. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS
RAYS -125 on ML over Oakland--Scott Kazmir las looked very sharp in his last two starts since coming off the DL and getting his huge contract extension. He's beaten the Angels and yankees back to back. He's 4-1 lifetime vs the A's. He struck out 13 against them last August.
NL FREE B's FOR TUESDAY
ROCKIES -130 on ML over Giants--Lincecum gets beat by Aaron Cook in the thin air at Coors. Colorado has won 3 straight. SF has dropped six straight games. SF has lost 12 of 15 and just got swept by the White Sox and then lost the first game of this series.. They've lost 3 of Lincecum's last four starts. He leads the NL in ERA and K's. Cook has won 6 of his last 7 starts.
Cardinals +110 on ML over Padres--Pujols is on fire and Greg Maddux will find out how hot he is tonight at Petco. Maddux is coming off a lousy start against the Cubs, losing 4-0 and lasting only in to the 5th inning. The Padres have lost three straight and are 16-30. Joel Pineiro is 3-0 in his career vs the Padres. The Cards starter is unbeaten in his last five starts, going 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA. SD is a lousy 8-11 at home and the Cards are .500 on the road.
DODGERS -180 on ML over Reds--LA is 12-9 at home and the Reds are a miserable 7-14 on the road. Chad Billingsley won his last start and gave up 1 run in 7 innings vs the Brewers. The Dodgers win 60% of the games they are favored. The Reds cash in only 34% as dogs. Matt Belisle lost to the Mets in his last outing.
AL FREE B's FOR TUESDAY
Minnesota -125 on ML over Texas--The Twins send Glen Perkins to the hill against Doug Mathis, who's making his fist career start. TAKE THE OVER 9.5 RUNS. Perkins, the lefty, has made two starts for the Twins and allowed only two earned runs in his last outing.
CLEVELAND -125 on ML over Chicago--CC Sabathia has looked sharp lately. He's 3-2 in his last five starts after starting the season 0-3. He's allowed one run in last 16 innings. The White Sox have won five straight. Sabbathia is 14-3 in his career vs the White Sox and 7-0 in Chicago. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS
RAYS -125 on ML over Oakland--Scott Kazmir las looked very sharp in his last two starts since coming off the DL and getting his huge contract extension. He's beaten the Angels and yankees back to back. He's 4-1 lifetime vs the A's. He struck out 13 against them last August.
NL FREE B's FOR TUESDAY
ROCKIES -130 on ML over Giants--Lincecum gets beat by Aaron Cook in the thin air at Coors. Colorado has won 3 straight. SF has dropped six straight games. SF has lost 12 of 15 and just got swept by the White Sox and then lost the first game of this series.. They've lost 3 of Lincecum's last four starts. He leads the NL in ERA and K's. Cook has won 6 of his last 7 starts.
Cardinals +110 on ML over Padres--Pujols is on fire and Greg Maddux will find out how hot he is tonight at Petco. Maddux is coming off a lousy start against the Cubs, losing 4-0 and lasting only in to the 5th inning. The Padres have lost three straight and are 16-30. Joel Pineiro is 3-0 in his career vs the Padres. The Cards starter is unbeaten in his last five starts, going 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA. SD is a lousy 8-11 at home and the Cards are .500 on the road.
DODGERS -180 on ML over Reds--LA is 12-9 at home and the Reds are a miserable 7-14 on the road. Chad Billingsley won his last start and gave up 1 run in 7 innings vs the Brewers. The Dodgers win 60% of the games they are favored. The Reds cash in only 34% as dogs. Matt Belisle lost to the Mets in his last outing.
to cut-paste hero
Please use your cut-paste skills, we know Billy past posted some gms. but you don't need to quote the entire article, just point it out. On to todays gms., my site which had NO (L) & St.L (W) yesterday is now 7 of 9 for the week. Today has Pistons clicking on all cylinders for the outright & those overpriced Bronx boys w/Mussina. With the Wings coming through yesterday I have won every hockey series except Habs loss a while ago. I'll do my due diligence & post my prognostication for the cup tomorrow. BOL to ya'll.
:drink:
Please use your cut-paste skills, we know Billy past posted some gms. but you don't need to quote the entire article, just point it out. On to todays gms., my site which had NO (L) & St.L (W) yesterday is now 7 of 9 for the week. Today has Pistons clicking on all cylinders for the outright & those overpriced Bronx boys w/Mussina. With the Wings coming through yesterday I have won every hockey series except Habs loss a while ago. I'll do my due diligence & post my prognostication for the cup tomorrow. BOL to ya'll.
:drink:
I stop in at the RX on occassion, primarily to see what the touts are heavily favoring so I can either go against or jump off a play that there is a heavy consensus on. I decided to back date the tout consensus (started this about 2 weeks ago a little each day) and found that fading the touts heavy consensus can be very profittable. NO explanation as to why it works out but these numbers do not lie:
Fading strong consensus of touts in MLB since day 1 has produced approximately 90 winners and 77 losers (54%). 54% is good but not great. However, peel the onion a little further:
Of the 167 games all but 13 were DOGS. The 13 favs never had a juice over -120 and average less than -110.
The 90W and 77L equate to nearly $2600 profit if betting $100 per game
If you adjust the record based on a standard of -110 juice vs the profit you will see that the record is at 60% equivalent. I will also note that I rounded DOWN on every play so that this is a LOW estimate. Realistically you could have profitted at least 10cents extra on each of the 90 winners which would have netted more like $3500 or 62% equivalent.
Let me qualify this by saying my definition of a heavy consensus is based on
1. At least 2:1 touts on one side
2. Must be at least a 5 tout difference (8-4 is double but not more than 5 so does not qualify, but 8-3 does)
3. No more than 5 touts on the other side even if rule 1 and 2 apply. So 13-6 would not qualify under the 3rd criteria although it does pass the first two.
These were guidelines I attempted to follow. I ignored who the touts were and what their track record was, hell I don't know who more than a few are anyway.
I decided to do this for a couple reasons:
1. Noticed at another site that people were fading a heavy wagerline consensus with success....so why not the touts
2. Seemed everytime there was a lot of "touting" for a play it ended up losing.
3. My own curiousity and thought it might be a tool to help me make a final decision on a play. I can say it has saved me money by being armed with this information.
One last thing, there were a few days where the information was not available (the site I pulled the info did not do the tally and I did not take the time to do one myself), but I can tell you it is VERY accurate and a solid snapshot and a large enough sample to make some conclusions.
Sorry to take up so much space but I thought it was info worth sharing.
Best of luck with you plays RX
