THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (28-17) at Houston (25-21)
The red-hot Cubs send right-hander Ryan Dempster (5-1, 2.35 ERA) to the mound at Minute Maid Park against the National League Central rival Astros, who are set to hand the ball to right-hander Chris Sampson (2-3, 6.46) in the middle game of a three-game series.
Chicago scored a 7-2 victory in In Monday night?s opener, improving to 9-2 in its last 11 games. The Cubs have won their last three series, though those were all at home. Meanwhile, the Astros have followed up an 11-2 run by losing three of their last four. Also, Houston first baseman Lance Berkman went 0-for-4 last night, ending a 17-game hitting streak and dropping his season average from .399 to .389.
The Cubs have won three of four from the Astros this season, and they?re now 5-1 in the last six clashes dating to last season. The Cubs narrowly won the season series last year 8-7, though the Astros went 4-2 at home.
The Cubs improved to 7-2 in Dempster?s starts this season with Thursday?s 4-0 home victory over San Diego. It was Dempster?s best outing of the season, as he scattered six hits and struck out 12 over 8 1/3 scoreless innings. All five of Dempster?s wins have come at home this year, but in three road starts, he?s 0-1 despite a miniscule 0.90 ERA. In Dempster?s lone loss, a 5-3 setback at Pittsburgh on April 20, all five runs were unearned.
In his career against Houston, Dempster is 3-7 with a 4.88 ERA in 37 appearances (11 starts).
Sampson, who will make his ninth start today, is 1-0 with two no-decisions in his last three outings, but the Astros won all three games. On Thursday at San Francisco, he got roughed up for seven runs on 10 hits in six innings, but Houston rallied for five runs over the last two innings to notch an 8-7 victory. Prior to that, Sampson threw seven shutout innings, allowing three hits, in a 5-0 road win against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 10.
Sampson is 0-2 with an astounding 15.75 ERA in three starts at home this season, but he?s 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in three career starts (five appearances) against Chicago, including a 4-3 road win April 4 in which he yielded two runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings.
The Cubs are on positive runs of 5-1 against winning teams and 5-1 when Dempster starts against the N.L. Central. However, they carry negative trends of 3-5 in roadies, 2-6 on the highway against winning teams and 1-4 in Dempster?s last five road starts.
The Astros are on tears of 8-2 at Minute Maid, 6-3 against the N.L. Central, 4-1 in Sampson?s last five outings and 8-2 with Sampson facing division rivals. On the flip side, Houston is 1-4 in Sampson?s last four home starts, 2-8 with Sampson facing a winning team and 3-7 with Sampson going on four days? rest.
The under for Chicago is 5-1 in Dempster?s last six road starts, but the over is 4-1 with Dempster on the hill against N.L. Central foes, and the ?over? trends are running hot when Sampson starts for Houston, including 8-0 at home, 8-1 with Sampson on four days? rest, 7-2 against winning teams and 12-4 in his last 16 outings overall.
In addition, for Chicago, the over is 13-7-2 in its last 22 contests inside the division, but the under is 13-3-1 on Tuesday, 7-2-1 against winning teams and a lengthy 44-17-4 in the Cubs? last 64 road matchups. For Houston, the over is 8-2 in its last 10 at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 17-5 in the last 22 games in Houston and 19-6-1 in the last 26 matchups overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Los Angeles Angels (26-20) at Toronto (23-23)
Right-hander John Lackey (0-0, 1.29 ERA), just recently brought off the disabled list, will toe the slab for the Angels when they take on the Blue Jays and righty Dustin McGowan (2-3, 4.38) in the opener of a three-game series at the Rogers Centre.
Los Angeles comes into this three-game set after taking two of three at home from their neighboring rival Dodgers in interleague play. The Angels capped the series with a 10-2 shellacking on Sunday before taking Monday off. The Blue Jays, also off Monday, had similar success in their first interleague action of the season, taking two of three at Philadelphia, including Sunday?s 6-5 win. Toronto has followed a four-game slide by winning six of its last seven.
The Blue Jays are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Angels in Toronto and 17-8 in the last 25 clashes overall. Toronto has narrowly won the season series the past two years, going 4-3 in 2007 and 6-4 in 2006, with a 5-2 mark at home. Los Angeles is just 1-4 in Lackey?s last four road starts against Toronto and 1-5 in Lackey?s last six overall against the Jays.
Lackey, who had been out since spring training with a strained triceps, picked up where he left off last year in his first start of the season Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox. He allowed just one run on six hits in seven innings, with one walk and four strikeouts, but he got only one run of support and the bullpen imploded by allowing five runs in the last two innings as L.A. lost 6-1. Lackey, who went 19-9 with a 3.01 ERA in 2007, is 2-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven career starts against Toronto.
McGowan is gearing up for his 10th start of the year, and the Jays are just 3-6 with the 26-year-old on the hill. On Thursday at Minnesota, he allowed two runs on two hits in five innings, getting a no-decision in Toronto?s 3-2, 11-inning win; that followed a 12-0 beatdown at Cleveland in which McGowan allowed nine runs (all earned) on nine hits in 3 2/3 innings.
McGowan is 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA at home this year, but he?s 0-2 with a 3.45 ERA in two career starts (four appearances) against the Angels.
The Angels are on an 0-7 freefall following an off day and are 0-4 in their last four on the highway, 4-11 in their last 15 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 1-4 in Lackey?s last four starts against the American League East. On the positive side, Los Angeles is on streaks of 4-1 on Tuesday, 4-0 when Lackey goes on Tuesday, 12-4 when Lackey hits the road, 17-7 with Lackey in a series opener, 19-9 in Lackey?s last 28 starts overall and 27-13 with Lackey going on five days? rest.
The Blue Jays are on rolls of 4-1 coming off a win, 5-2 at home, 25-10 at Rogers Centre against winning teams and 4-1 when McGowan works in the Rogers Centre. But Toronto is 0-4 in its last four following an off day, 1-4 in McGowan?s past five facing the A.L. West and 2-9 in its last 11 series openers.
The under is 4-0 in Lackey?s last four road starts, 6-1 in his last seven outings overall, 7-2 in his last nine against the A.L. East and 4-1 in his last five versus Toronto. Also, the under is on a bevy of runs with McGowan throwing for Toronto, including 21-5-1 overall, 13-3-1 at home, 6-0 at home against winning teams, 10-1 in series openers and 16-5 against A.L. West opponents.
Furthermore, for Los Angeles, the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 in series openers and 6-2-1 on the highway. For Toronto, the under is on rolls of 20-8-1 overall, 8-2 at home and 10-1-2 at home against winning road teams.
Finally, the under is 38-15-5 in the last 58 meetings between these two teams, including 19-7-3 in the last 29 clashes in Toronto.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER