Service Plays Tuesday 5/20/08

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Tom Freese Blue Line Club


Tampa Bay at Oakland (10:05pm)
Tampa Bay is 11-2 when Scott Kazmir starts game two of series and they are 9-3 their last 12 games overall. The Rays are 10-2 vs. a team that allowed 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 13-6 with Kazmir vs. winning teams. Oakland is 2-6 their last 8 games vs. lefty starters and they are 2-8 on Tuesday. The A's are 0-5 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. PLAY ON TAMPA BAY w/Kazmir
 
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VEGAS EXPERTS

Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros
Tuesday, May 20th, 8:05 PM ET

Huge pitching mismatch in favor of the Cubs here. Ryan Dempster has emerged as the team's #2 man in the rotation behind Zambrano by allowing just two earned runs over his last three starts (0.89 ERA). He's opposed by Chris Sampson who has an ERA over 15.00 at home, yet somehow the Astros have won each of his last three starts. Not this time as the Cubbie build off yesterday's 7-2 win in the series opener.

Play on: Chicago Cubs
 
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GATOR REPORT


NBA 70% Super Situations (NBA Record 20-11 ATS +790 Units)

NBA (Playoffs 3-3 -0.30) Tuesday: Play Over NBA teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points after a game where they failed to cover the spread, a well rested team whose playing 5 or less games in 14 days.
41-16 Over last 5 seasons (71.9%)

PLAY: Detroit / Boston OVER 174


MLB 70% Super Situations (**MLB Record 12-4 +760 units)

MLB (12-4 +760) Tuesday: Play Against MLB (NL) road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season.
47-14 since 1997 (77%)

PLAY: Colorado Rockies -135
 
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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">THE SPORTS ADVISORS


NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(2) Detroit (8-3, 7-4 ATS) at (1) Boston (8-6, 5-9 ATS)
The Pistons, who have been resting up for a week after dispatching the third-seeded Orlando Magic in five games, travel to TD BankNorth Garden to open the Eastern Conference finals against the Celtics, who just finished their second straight seven-game series in fending off Cleveland.
Detroit, which trailed by three points after three quarters of Game 5 against Orlando, got it going in the fourth quarter in winning 91-86 a week ago tonight, though the Pistons failed to cover as a six-point home chalk. Detroit is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight starts, dating to a six-game, first-round series win over Philadelphia, though it has failed to cash in two of its last three.
Richard Hamilton has led the Pistons by averaging 21.5 points per game in the playoffs. Detroit, playing in its sixth straight conference finals, is allowing just 87.8 ppg, third-best in the postseason, while scoring 92.3 ppg. Star point guard Chauncey Billups (hamstring) sat out the last two games of the Orlando series but is expected to be good to go for this series.
Boston, which has lost all six of its road playoff games this year, has countered that by winning all eight of its home starts, including Sunday?s 97-92 Game 7 win over the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers. Paul Pierce had 41 points, nearly keeping pace with LeBron James? 45-point outburst, but while the Celts barely held on, they failed to cover as an eight-point chalk. Boston is on an 0-5 ATS slide and went just 1-6 at the betting window against Cleveland.
Kevin Garnett has been Boston?s go-to guy in the playoffs, averaging 20.3 points and 9.9 rebounds. The Celtics have fielded the best scoring defense so far in the postseason, allowing 86.1 ppg while scoring 91.6. Additionally, opponents are shooting a playoff-worst 41.0 percent, while Boston is hitting at a 44.4 percent clip from the field.
Boston took two of three from Detroit in the regular season, including a 90-78 home victory as a four-point chalk on March 5. However, the Pistons stole an 87-85 road win as a six-point underdog in the first meeting on Dec. 19, and the road team is on a 7-1 ATS tear in the last eight head-to-head clashes. In addition, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the SU winner has cashed in the last four battles.
The Pistons are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in their last 14 games going back to the regular season, and they are on additional ATS runs of 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 against the Atlantic Division, 5-1 after a SU win and 7-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. But Detroit still carries negative pointspread trends of 0-6 after three or more days off, 0-5 as a road pup of less than five points, 1-6 as a road ?dog of any price, 2-7 as a playoff ?dog of less than five and 3-7 overall catching points in the playoffs. The Pistons are also a meager 1-11 ATS in their last 12 conference finals games, including going 0-6 ATS (2-4 SU) against Cleveland in last year?s Eastern Conference finals.
The Celtics are also mired in several ATS funks, including 0-5 on one day of rest, 0-4 in the conference finals, 1-5 following a SU win, 1-4 as a playoff chalk of less than five points and a lengthy 18-38 as a home favorite of less than five points. On the positive side, though, the C?s are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at the Garden and 6-0 ATS in their last six at home against teams with a winning road record.
The ?under? trends are heavy for both teams entering this series. For Detroit, the under is on runs of 16-7 overall, 10-2 when coming off three or more days of rest, 10-2 on the highway, 14-3-1 in the playoffs as an underdog of less than five points, 17-5-1 as a playoff ?dog of any price, 18-6 against the East and 20-8-1 in the conference finals. The under for Boston is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-1 as a playoff chalk of less than five points, 4-1 in the conference finals and 16-7 against the Central Division.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under has been the play in each of the last four meetings overall and each of the last five battles at the Garden.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Cubs (28-17) at Houston (25-21)
The red-hot Cubs send right-hander Ryan Dempster (5-1, 2.35 ERA) to the mound at Minute Maid Park against the National League Central rival Astros, who are set to hand the ball to right-hander Chris Sampson (2-3, 6.46) in the middle game of a three-game series.
Chicago scored a 7-2 victory in In Monday night?s opener, improving to 9-2 in its last 11 games. The Cubs have won their last three series, though those were all at home. Meanwhile, the Astros have followed up an 11-2 run by losing three of their last four. Also, Houston first baseman Lance Berkman went 0-for-4 last night, ending a 17-game hitting streak and dropping his season average from .399 to .389.
The Cubs have won three of four from the Astros this season, and they?re now 5-1 in the last six clashes dating to last season. The Cubs narrowly won the season series last year 8-7, though the Astros went 4-2 at home.
The Cubs improved to 7-2 in Dempster?s starts this season with Thursday?s 4-0 home victory over San Diego. It was Dempster?s best outing of the season, as he scattered six hits and struck out 12 over 8 1/3 scoreless innings. All five of Dempster?s wins have come at home this year, but in three road starts, he?s 0-1 despite a miniscule 0.90 ERA. In Dempster?s lone loss, a 5-3 setback at Pittsburgh on April 20, all five runs were unearned.
In his career against Houston, Dempster is 3-7 with a 4.88 ERA in 37 appearances (11 starts).
Sampson, who will make his ninth start today, is 1-0 with two no-decisions in his last three outings, but the Astros won all three games. On Thursday at San Francisco, he got roughed up for seven runs on 10 hits in six innings, but Houston rallied for five runs over the last two innings to notch an 8-7 victory. Prior to that, Sampson threw seven shutout innings, allowing three hits, in a 5-0 road win against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 10.
Sampson is 0-2 with an astounding 15.75 ERA in three starts at home this season, but he?s 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in three career starts (five appearances) against Chicago, including a 4-3 road win April 4 in which he yielded two runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings.
The Cubs are on positive runs of 5-1 against winning teams and 5-1 when Dempster starts against the N.L. Central. However, they carry negative trends of 3-5 in roadies, 2-6 on the highway against winning teams and 1-4 in Dempster?s last five road starts.
The Astros are on tears of 8-2 at Minute Maid, 6-3 against the N.L. Central, 4-1 in Sampson?s last five outings and 8-2 with Sampson facing division rivals. On the flip side, Houston is 1-4 in Sampson?s last four home starts, 2-8 with Sampson facing a winning team and 3-7 with Sampson going on four days? rest.
The under for Chicago is 5-1 in Dempster?s last six road starts, but the over is 4-1 with Dempster on the hill against N.L. Central foes, and the ?over? trends are running hot when Sampson starts for Houston, including 8-0 at home, 8-1 with Sampson on four days? rest, 7-2 against winning teams and 12-4 in his last 16 outings overall.
In addition, for Chicago, the over is 13-7-2 in its last 22 contests inside the division, but the under is 13-3-1 on Tuesday, 7-2-1 against winning teams and a lengthy 44-17-4 in the Cubs? last 64 road matchups. For Houston, the over is 8-2 in its last 10 at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 17-5 in the last 22 games in Houston and 19-6-1 in the last 26 matchups overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS




AMERICAN LEAGUE

Los Angeles Angels (26-20) at Toronto (23-23)
Right-hander John Lackey (0-0, 1.29 ERA), just recently brought off the disabled list, will toe the slab for the Angels when they take on the Blue Jays and righty Dustin McGowan (2-3, 4.38) in the opener of a three-game series at the Rogers Centre.
Los Angeles comes into this three-game set after taking two of three at home from their neighboring rival Dodgers in interleague play. The Angels capped the series with a 10-2 shellacking on Sunday before taking Monday off. The Blue Jays, also off Monday, had similar success in their first interleague action of the season, taking two of three at Philadelphia, including Sunday?s 6-5 win. Toronto has followed a four-game slide by winning six of its last seven.
The Blue Jays are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Angels in Toronto and 17-8 in the last 25 clashes overall. Toronto has narrowly won the season series the past two years, going 4-3 in 2007 and 6-4 in 2006, with a 5-2 mark at home. Los Angeles is just 1-4 in Lackey?s last four road starts against Toronto and 1-5 in Lackey?s last six overall against the Jays.
Lackey, who had been out since spring training with a strained triceps, picked up where he left off last year in his first start of the season Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox. He allowed just one run on six hits in seven innings, with one walk and four strikeouts, but he got only one run of support and the bullpen imploded by allowing five runs in the last two innings as L.A. lost 6-1. Lackey, who went 19-9 with a 3.01 ERA in 2007, is 2-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven career starts against Toronto.
McGowan is gearing up for his 10th start of the year, and the Jays are just 3-6 with the 26-year-old on the hill. On Thursday at Minnesota, he allowed two runs on two hits in five innings, getting a no-decision in Toronto?s 3-2, 11-inning win; that followed a 12-0 beatdown at Cleveland in which McGowan allowed nine runs (all earned) on nine hits in 3 2/3 innings.
McGowan is 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA at home this year, but he?s 0-2 with a 3.45 ERA in two career starts (four appearances) against the Angels.
The Angels are on an 0-7 freefall following an off day and are 0-4 in their last four on the highway, 4-11 in their last 15 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 1-4 in Lackey?s last four starts against the American League East. On the positive side, Los Angeles is on streaks of 4-1 on Tuesday, 4-0 when Lackey goes on Tuesday, 12-4 when Lackey hits the road, 17-7 with Lackey in a series opener, 19-9 in Lackey?s last 28 starts overall and 27-13 with Lackey going on five days? rest.
The Blue Jays are on rolls of 4-1 coming off a win, 5-2 at home, 25-10 at Rogers Centre against winning teams and 4-1 when McGowan works in the Rogers Centre. But Toronto is 0-4 in its last four following an off day, 1-4 in McGowan?s past five facing the A.L. West and 2-9 in its last 11 series openers.
The under is 4-0 in Lackey?s last four road starts, 6-1 in his last seven outings overall, 7-2 in his last nine against the A.L. East and 4-1 in his last five versus Toronto. Also, the under is on a bevy of runs with McGowan throwing for Toronto, including 21-5-1 overall, 13-3-1 at home, 6-0 at home against winning teams, 10-1 in series openers and 16-5 against A.L. West opponents.
Furthermore, for Los Angeles, the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 in series openers and 6-2-1 on the highway. For Toronto, the under is on rolls of 20-8-1 overall, 8-2 at home and 10-1-2 at home against winning road teams.
Finally, the under is 38-15-5 in the last 58 meetings between these two teams, including 19-7-3 in the last 29 clashes in Toronto.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
 

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At the risk of sounding stupid, who are the wise men? Thanks

That's a nick this board has picked up to help track the most successful touts...

I believe all of the "wisemen" are part of the Youwinnow crew: Winners Inc., Will Kidd, and Wise Guy Insider
 

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That's a nick this board has picked up to help track the most successful touts...

I believe all of the "wisemen" are part of the Youwinnow crew: Winners Inc., Will Kidd, and Wise Guy Insider
SHOULD'NT THEY CALL THEMSELVES THE "CHALK-MEN".
 

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Lance's Lock


Overall record: 603-506-22

Current streak: 4 losses

Todays play: The Padres -125
 

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Chalk-men

SHOULD'NT THEY CALL THEMSELVES THE "CHALK-MEN".

The boys should be on (the top 5):

-- I'd say 4 of these 5 will be their picks

LA Dodgers (-169)
Philadelphia (-158)
Detroit (-158)
NY Yanks (-156)
Boston (-144)

Other possibilities (close out top 10):

-- Maybe 2 of these to wrap up their pick predictions

Colorado (-134)
Tampa Bay (-129)
San Diego (-127)
Cubs (-124)
Cleve or Minne ( both -123)

:brazilian
 

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SHOULD'NT THEY CALL THEMSELVES THE "CHALK-MEN".

Ha, i hear ya...their winning percentage is better than the Bosox and the Dbacks so they must pick against them occasionally, right? ;)

Where do we find the guaranteed underdog selections? :lol:
 

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hey CPW...do u remember earlier this week when there was a post...for Sean Michaels 25 Dime on the Braves...and a lot of people went with it and we all lost and u were pretty upset...well i had the hornets for the series because if u revert back to Service Plays 5/3/08 on page 28 of the forums...then go to page 7 while ure there...THE WHOLE PAGE HAS PEOPLE POSTING 100 DIME STEVE BUDIN HORNETS SERIES...so i rolled with it along with many others probably, then went on Stevebudin.com today only to see 100 DIME WINNER CALI CARTEL SPURS FOR THE SERIES!!!! TWICE THIS WEEK incorrect posts have me draining the bank account
 

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Is there a capper that picks purely underdogs? (and has a decent record)
 

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