Service Plays Thursday 1/2/14

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Thursday, January 2

Minnesota is 2-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Syracuse/Arkansas out on Maui; Gophers won last six games, but last four were vs stiffs- they're forcing turnovers 20.9% of time. Michigan won four in row, eight of last nine games with Minnesota; Wolverines are 0-2 on road, losing by 7 at Iowa State, 10 at Duke in their only true road games this season.

Green Bay won last three games with Cleveland State by 4-27-7 points; Vikings lost six of last seven visits here, with five of six losses by 9+. Cleveland State is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 7-3-4 points; they're turning ball over 20.4% of time. Green Bay is 3-3 vs teams in top 200, with all three wins by 8 or less points- they're forcing turnovers 20.9%.

Youngstown won its last four games with Milwaukee, with three of four wins by 8 or less points; Penguins won last two visits here, after losing nine of previous 10. 9-4 Milwaukee is 2-2 vs top 200 teams- they won last two home games (No Iowa/Bradley) by 11-6 points. Youngstown is 5-6 in its last eleven games, allowing 83+ points in all six losses.

Home side won last four South Alabama-Western Kentucky games, with Hilltoppers losing last two visits here, 66-61/65-57. WKU is 1-4 on the road, with only win at #233 So. Illinois- they're turning ball over 22.7% of time, making just 45.4% inside arc. USA lost its last five D-I games, including a triple OT game at Rice- they're shooting 38.2% inside arc.

Washington won its last seven games with Arizona State, winning last three visits here, by 17-6-9 points; Huskies are 0-3 vs top 100 teams so far this year, losing by 18-7-12 points, and they've only played couple road games, winning at Tulane, losing by 7 at San Diego State. Arizona State won its last four games; they're holding teams to 27.9% on arc.

Oregon won four of five Pac-12 games with Utah, winning 64-45 in LY's conference tourney; Ducks won by 10 in OT at Ole Miss in its one true road game this year. Oregon is making 42.4% from arc, 55.5% inside it. Utah is 1-1 vs top 100 teams, losing by hoop at Boise State, winning by 17 over rival BYU. Utes are #1 in country, making 60.7% inside arc.

Illinois State won three of last four games with Missouri State, but they lost three of last four visits here, losing by 4-11-7 points. Redbirds won six of last seven games, beating Dayton/DePaul; they're 2-2 in true road games, winning at Northwestern/San Francisco. Bears are 10-2 but that is against #304 schedule; their best win was by 3 at #140 Oral Roberts.

Gonzaga won six of last eight games with St Mary's, sweeping Gaels in LY's games by 5-17-14 points; St Mary's lost nine of last ten visits to Spokane, losing last two visits by 14-5 points. Gonzaga won its first two leaue games by 14-28 points, despite Dower's injury; they're #14 in US behind arc, making 41.3%. Gaels lost three of last four games, are without coach Bennett (suspended)- they're making 43.3% from arc.

Home teams won five of last six Cal-Stanford games; Bears lost by 14-5-10 points in last three visits here. Cal is 0-2 on road this year, losing by 7 at UCSB, 14 at Creighton- half their four losses came when Solonon was out with eye injury. Stanford won its last five home games after a 112-103 loss to BYU in home opener- they're #9 in country behind arc, making 42.1% of their 3's.

Colorado is 3-2 in Pac-12 games vs Oregon State, with all three of LY's meetings decided by six or less points; Beavers split their two visits to Boulder, winning by 6 LY, losing by 22 in '12. 8-4 OSU beat Maryland in its only top 100 game; they lost other two true road games, by 12 at DePaul by 6 at Hawai'i. Colorado won 11 of last 12 games, winning its last three at home, by 3-17-14 points.

Santa Clara won five of last seven games with Pepperdine, sweeping the series LY by 7-10 points; Waves lost seven of last eight visits to Santa Clara, with four of seven losses by 10+ points. Broncos were 12-23 on arc in win at Portland last game, are making 38.1% for year. Waves won three of four true road games, with loss by 17 at Washington State.

San Francisco won three of last four games with LMU, losing to Lions in WCC tourney LY, after beating them by 9-2 points during season; Dons won three of last four visits here; they're 3-4 vs teams in top 150, with best win over #111 Cleveland St. LMU won its first two WCC games by 11-3 points; they're 2-2 on road, winning at Long Beach/Riverside.

Iona lost last four games, allowing 92 ppg since winning first two games in MAAC by 9-11 points; Gaels are 2-5 on road, with only two wins at Fla Gulf Coast/Fairfield by 18-11 points. Quinnipiac is 3-1 at home; its only home loss was by 3 to Boston U; they're 0-3 vs teams in top 130, losing by 6-3-8 points. Road teams are 7-3-1 vs spread in MAAC tilts.
 
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NCAAF

Sugar Bowl, New Orleans, 1/2
Alabama won three of last four national titles, some are questioning how much they'll want to be here after not even making SEC title game, but Saban won his last four bowls, whacking Michigan State 49-7 in Capital One Bowl in '10, after winning title year before- that was also last year Alabama lost the Iron Bowl. Last time Alabama was in Sugar Bowl was Saban's only bowl loss with Tide, 31-17 (-9.5) to Utah in '08. Oklahoma lost by 10-28 points last two times they were bowl underdog- their last three bowl wins came as double digit favorites. Sooners had trouble with QBs this year; neither Bell/Knight was especially good. Oklahoma has edge in experience on OL; they covered two of three as an underdog this year, beating Oklahoma State 33-24 (+10) in its rivalry game. Alabama is 7-5 vs spread this year, 2-2 if spread was less than 20. Big X teams split their first four bowls; SEC teams are 3-2 in their first five bowls. Bowl favorites are 15-12 after going 1-5 Wednesday; under is 18-9-1.
 

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Daily wager with Weekend Warrior January 02, 2014 7:24 AM by Mark Mayer


NBA Basketball


516 Portland Trailblazers -11: Tough spot for Charlotte going to Portland after getting blown out the night before in LA against the Clippers.




Results NBA (0-0-0) Overall Record: 13-10-0
 
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GC: NBA Play

Thursday card has three 5* Plays, the Sugar Bowl with a 93% system and perfect Angle and two 5* NBA plays an Undefeated Blowout system and 91% Dog system. NBA Cashes again and is ranked at or near the top of several leader boards. NBA play below.

On Thursday NBA System Play is on Miami. Game 504 at 7:35 eastern. Miami may not have a healthy Wade for this one, but it wont matter as Miami has won games even without James or Wade in the lineup. Last seasons dog win in San Antonio in the regular season comes to mind. Tonight they fits a nice system that has cashed 10 of 12 times and plays on rested home favorites of less than 5 with a total that is 200 or higher, if they scored 90 or more as a road favorite in their last game, and their opponent tonight also scored 90 or more as a road favorite and covered the spread like Golden State. Miami has shot over 50% in 5 of the last 6 games. The Warriors have failed to cover 3 of 4 after allowing 85 or less in their last game. We back Miami in this one. On Thursday night we have a 100% NBA Blowout system with a perfect angles and a 91% Dog with Bite system. Both are rated 5* Top plays. We also have a 93% Sugar Bowl System with 6 Powerful Indicators. Jump on Now and cash out in Bowls and Hoops. For the Bonus Play take the Miami Heat. GC
 
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NCAA Football Play of the Day January 02, 2014 7:13 AM by GT Staff


Allstate Sugar Bowl - Louisiana Superdome - New Orleans


Oklahoma vs. Alabama -16½ at 5:30 p.m. PST


At first glance this looks like a huge number to lay in this Sugar Bowl game but taking a closer look we find ourselves in a position that we must lay the lumber with Sabin and company as Stoops and company have gone 0-7 ATS when facing a team from the SEC.


260 Alabama -16½




Results 2013-14 NCAA FB (1-0-0) Overall Record: 20-22-1
 
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GamingToday's Consensus Picks January 02, 2014 6:39 AM by GT Staff


NBA Basketball


504 Miami Heat -4: The Heat will be playing hard tonight with Wade injured and they have proven in the past that they can win without their star and they will show up big time in this battle.


506 Chicago Bulls -4: We will follow Parry's NBA Basketball Power Guide in this game between the Bulls and the visiting Celtics as they have the Bulls nine points the best.


508 Oklahoma City Thunder -12: We go with Parry's Power Guide in this game as they have the Thunder winning by 20, we will lay the points.


512 Utah Jazz -5½: Parry’s Power Guide has this one big with the Jazz a 17 point favorite, we will take the plunge.


513 Memphis Grizzlies +6: Memphis has gone a real solid 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 vs the Pacific division.


Results 2013-14 NBA (Wed. 1-1-0) Overall Record: 34-29-4


NHL Hockey


12 St. Louis Blues -145: The Kings skate into St Louie with a four game losing streak, the Blues will make it five.


Results 2013-14 NHL (0-0-0) Overall Record: 56-42-1


NCAA Basketball


538 Wisc Milwaukee -1½: This is the first of three huge deferential games Parry has vs the line. Parry’s NCAA Basketball Power Guide has Wisky Mil -9½.


574 Monmouth +7: In this game, Parry’s Power Guide makes Monmouth a 7½ point favorite.


608 Idaho State -3: In the last game with the big deference we have Idaho St. -11 on Parry’s Power Guide.




Results 2013-14 NCAA BK (0-0-0) Overall Record: 28-24-0
 
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Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Warriors at Heat

Golden State: 20-13 SU, 15-16-2 ATS
Miami: 24-7 SU, 14-17 ATS

The Warriors continue their road trip on the East Coast as Golden State heads to South Florida on Thursday. Mark Jackson's club is 2-0 on its current seven-game away swing, including victories over Cleveland and Orlando. The Warriors ran out the Magic early in Sunday's 94-81 triumph has six-point favorites to win their sixth consecutive contest. Golden State is listed as an underdog for the first time since December 6, as the Warriors have covered four of the last six times when receiving points.

The Heat returns home following a 3-1 road swing win which Miami pulled out a narrow victory at Denver to close the trip. Miami has failed to cash in its last four opportunities as a favorite, including three times out west during the Christmas break. Erik Spoelstra's club has several streaks on the line heading into Thursday as the Heat has won five consecutive games at the American Airlines Arena, while cashing the 'over' in seven straight home contests.

Celtics at Bulls

Boston: 13-18 SU, 15-15-1 ATS
Chicago: 12-18 SU, 11-19 ATS

The Celtics weren't expected to do much this season, but were leading the weak Atlantic Division in December. However, Boston has lost four of its last five games, including three home defeats has knocked the C's off the right track. The Celtics built 18-point leads against the Hawks and Wizards, and even a 21-point advantage against the Pistons recently, but threw away all three games at home. Boston is hitting the highway for just the fifth time since Thanksgiving, posting a 1-3 SU/ATS record, while cashing the 'under' three times.

The Bulls lost their sixth consecutive game when playing with no rest in Tuesday's home defeat to the Raptors, an 85-79 setback as a one-point favorite. Chicago continues to struggle at the United Center, dropping six of its past seven home games, while scoring 83 points or less in all six losses. Since blowing out the Pacers in mid-November, the Bulls are a dreadful 1-11 ATS the last 12 games in the favorite role, including 1-9 ATS without Derrick Rose in this stretch.

Grizzlies at Suns

Memphis: 13-17 SU, 10-19-1 ATS
Phoenix: 19-11 SU, 22-7-1 ATS

The Grizzlies hit the road for three games, as Memphis goes for its second victory over Phoenix this season. In the previous matchup at FedEx Forum on December 3, Memphis overcame an eight-point halftime deficit by outscoring Phoenix, 64-37 in the second half of a 110-91 blowout. The Grizzlies limited Suns' guard Eric Bledsoe to just nine points, while Memphis had seven players score in double-figures. Memphis has played well on the road recently with wins in six of its past eight away contests, but the Grizzlies are just 2-4 ATS this season as a road underdog of six points or less.

The Suns began the season with a posted win total of 21½, but Jeff Hornacek's club is two victories shy of busting that number with 52 games remaining. Phoenix has won 11 of 15 contests at U.S. Airways Center, including six of the past seven. The Suns pulled off one of their most solid efforts in Monday's 107-88 rout of the Clippers as eight-point road 'dogs, while putting together a 10-2 ATS run since the loss at Memphis last month.

Bobcats at Blazers

Charlotte: 14-18 SU, 19-11-2 ATS
Portland: 25-7 SU, 19-13 ATS

The Bobcats have been impressive against the number as a road underdog this season, covering 11 of 14 times, including four games when receiving at least nine points. Charlotte plays the third of a five-game Western Conference road swing, while covering each of its past three contests on the highway with no rest, coming off Wednesday's game against the Clippers. The Bobcats have lost each of their last five visits to the Moda Center, as Charlotte's most recent victory at Portland came in March 2008.

Portland beat division rival Oklahoma City for the second time this season in Tuesday's 98-94 triumph as six-point road underdogs. The Blazers erased a 16-point deficit and won in spite of shooting 39% from the floor. Probably the biggest positive drawn from that victory was limiting an opponent to below 100 points for the first time in 10 games, while Portland snapped a seven-game ATS skid. The Blazers will try to get on track from an ATS standpoint at home, covering just one of their last five games at the Moda Center.
 
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From The Bowl Guide
STATFOX FORECASTER

SUGAR BOWL:
OKLAHOMA (259) AT ALABAMA (260)
Latest Line: Alabama -15.0; Total: 51.5

Oklahoma has embraced the underdog role of late, as the Sooners finished the year by winning two SU games on the road while getting points. Whether they can handle an SEC opponent is another story: The Sooners are 0-7 ATS against the SEC since 1992. Alabama failed to cover in three of its last four outside of Tuscaloosa, including an Iron Bowl loss at Auburn. However, they outgained their rivals by more than 100 yards in the loss and won the turnover battle 1-0. The reason the game slipped away was four missed field goals, including a 33-yarder.
FORECASTER: Alabama 32, Oklahoma 20
 
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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: St. Mary's at Gonzaga (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Gonzaga -7 (-110) at Bookmaker

Gonzaga has played at such a high level for well over a decade now, they are hard to even be considered as a mid-major. Gonzaga wins 20+ games like clockwork every single season, and are on their way again off to a 12-2 start. They rarely get tripped up at home, and have started the season at 8-0 here. St. Mary's has been chasing Gonzaga for several years, and while the Gaels are 10-3 to start the season, this is not the same caliber team that has been closing in on the Zags. The lack of quality wins, and questionable losses, leaves this team a bit overrated at this point of the season. Gonzaga is for real, and the line here is more reflective of better St. Mary teams over the past few years - not this year's version. Play on Gonzaga.
 
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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Brown (cbb) + Oklahoma City (nba) at Parlay (Thursday 1/02 6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Parlay -117 (moneyline) at 5Dimes

For this CBB+NBA parlay, take the Bears (-150), and the Thunder (-900), to get -117 parlay odds.
 

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