Service Plays Thursday 1/2/14

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[h=1]NCAA Football Game Picks[/h]THURSDAY, JANUARY 2
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16) Game 259-260: Oklahoma vs. Alabama (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 108.920; Alabama 112.060
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 3; 58
Vegas Line: Alabama by 15; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+15); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Norm Hitzges

COLLEGE BOWLS
DOUBLE PLAYS:
Alabama -14 (Jan. 2)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northcoast

5* Alabama -15

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence 33-0 ATS Shocking Sugar Bowl Key Play! - Thursday
Play On: Alabama (Game 260)
We recommend a 3-unit play on Alabama.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

(CFB) Oklahoma -16.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sugar Bowl Preview
By Brian Edwards

Sugar Bowl

Matchup: Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)
Venue: Superdome
Location: New Orleans, LA

Following a six-pack of college football bowl games on New Year’s Day, gamblers have only the Sugar Bowl to wager on Thursday. From New Orleans at the Superdome, Alabama and Oklahoma will collide in a showdown between storied programs.

As of early Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama (11-1 straight up, against the spread) installed as a 17-point favorite with a total of 51.5. Gamblers can take the Sooners on the money line for a +550 return (risk $100 to win $550). For first-half wagers, ‘Bama is favored by nine with a total of 27.

Alabama’s quest for a third consecutive national title was derailed by Auburn in a crushing Iron Bowl defeat. If you’re reading this, you know how it happened and Chris Davis’s name won’t soon be forgotten.

The burning question for bettors is if Alabama’s team has put the gut-wrenching loss in the rearview mirror. In a similar situation in 2008 after losing to Florida in the SEC Championship Game, the Crimson Tide went to the Sugar Bowl and got thumped 31-17 by Utah as a nine-point ‘chalk.’

Oklahoma (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) has been an underdog three times this season, going 2-1 both SU and ATS. This will be the Sooners’ third double-digit ‘dog spot. They got smashed 41-12 at Baylor while catching 17 points but won 33-24 at Oklahoma St. as 10-point ‘dogs.

Bob Stoops’s team earned the BCS bowl invite thanks to the Bedlam win in Stillwater. Jalen Saunders was the catalyst against the Cowboys, scoring a pair of touchdowns. He got into the end zone on a 64-yard punt return in the first quarter and then scored the game-winning points on a seven-yard TD catch from Blake Bell with 19 ticks remaining.

OU is expected to use Bell and Trevor Knight at QB against the Tide. Both signal callers had their ups and downs during the regular season.

Bell got most of the playing time, completing 60.1 percent of his throws with a 12/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He had 255 rushing yards but averaged only 3.4 yards per carry.

Knight completed just 52.2 percent of his passes with a 5/4 TD-INT ratio. He was a more effective runner, producing 438 rushing yards, two TDs and a 7.1 YPC average.

Brennan Clay will get the bulk of the carries for the Sooners. He rushed for a team-high 913 yards and six TDs, averaging 5.8 YPC. Saunders is OU’s best playmaker, hauling in 56 receptions for 654 yards and six TDs. Saunders tallied 1,051 all-purpose yards.

OU’s defense gives up an average of 21.3 PPG and ranks 14th in the nation in total defense.

Senior QB A.J. McCarron will return to the venue where he enjoyed one of his finest performances as a sophomore. He was on the money from start to finish in the Big Easy two years ago in leading the Tide to a 21-0 win over LSU in the BCS Championship Game.

Regardless of what happens Thursday night, McCarron will go down as the greatest QB in Alabama football history. In his senior campaign, the Mobile native has completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 2,676 yards with a 26/5 TD-INT ratio.

McCarron spreads the sugar around to a talented array of wide receivers. Kevin Norwood and Amari Cooper are his favorite targets. Both wideouts brought down 36 catches apiece for more than 1,100 combined yards. Norwood and Cooper had seven and four TD grabs, respectively.

T.J. Yeldon rushed for a team-high 1,163 yards and 13 TDs, averaging 6.1 YPC. His back-up Kenyan Drake is equally as effective, with 694 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 7.5 YPC average.

Saban’s squad has been favored by double digits in 11 of its 12 games, compiling a 6-4-1 spread record. Alabama finished second in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 11.3 PPG.

The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 for ‘Bama, 5-2 in its last seven games. The Tide’s games averaged a combined score of 50.1 PPG.

The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 for OU, 4-1-1 in its last six games. The Sooners’ games have played to average combined score of 53.2 PPG.

These schools played a home-and-home series in 2002 and ’03. OU prevailed in both encounters but the Tide took the cash both times. We should note that Alabama was dealing with probation sanctions at the time.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Allstate Sugar Bowl: What bettors need to know

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-15.5, 51.5)

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Alabama saw its chances to play for a third consecutive national championship dashed on the final play of the regular season, so an obvious question is whether the third-ranked Crimson Tide will suffer a major letdown when they face No. 11 Oklahoma in the Allstate Sugar Bowl on Jan. 2 in New Orleans. A miraculous 109-yard kickoff return by bitter rival Auburn as time expired in the regular-season finale derailed Alabama's three-peat hopes and now the team must regroup for the matchup with the twice-beaten Sooners. It will be the five-year anniversary of The Crimson Tide's last visit to the Sugar Bowl, when they were waxed by Utah after their perfect season ended against Florida in the SEC Championship game.

2. Oklahoma is a decided underdog after losing to Texas and getting mauled by Baylor, but it finished the regular season on a high note, registering a last-minute victory at archrival Oklahoma State. One of the few programs in the country that can rival Alabama's storied history, the Sooners will be making their 15th consecutive bowl appearance under coach Bob Stoops. Oklahoma had a three-game bowl winning streak snapped last season with a lopsided defeat against Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M - a former Big 12 rival that now plays with Alabama in the SEC, which has produced the past seven BCS national champions.

3. Despite the string of success under Stoops that includes a dozen 10-win seasons since 2000, Alabama's Nick Saban is widely regarded as the best coach in college football with four national championships under his belt. One of them came at the expense of Stoops and Oklahoma, when Saban guided Louisiana State to a 21-14 victory over the Sooners in the Sugar Bowl following the 2003 season. "We respect them, but we're not scared to play them," Oklahoma All-American center Gabe Ikard said of the Crimson Tide. "They're extremely talented and we realize that. You have got to be confident going into a football game or else you're going to get blown out."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Alabama opened as 15-point faves and now sit at -15.5. The total has stayed put at 51.5.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (10-2, 7-5 ATS): Stoops still must decide on a starting quarterback versus Alabama - the options being senior Blake Bell and redshirt freshman Trevor Knight. The Tebow-esque Bell, nicknamed the Belldozer for his 6-6, 260-pound frame, started eight games and was superb in rallying the Sooners past Oklahoma State when Knight went down with a shoulder injury. Knight, however, is a dual threat and it's worth noting that Alabama's defense surrendered its two highest point totals against similar-style QBs for Texas A&M and Auburn. Brennan Clay rushed for 913 yards, including 200 against Kansas State in the next-to-last game, to power a ground game that ranked among the top 20 nationally while Jalen Saunders and Sterling Shepard are the top receiving targets.

ABOUT ALABAMA (11-1, 6-5-1 ATS): The Crimson Tide have no such question marks under center with senior A.J. McCarron, the Maxwell Award winner and runner-up in the Heisman Trophy balloting. McCarron threw for 26 touchdowns against only five interceptions this season and posted even better numbers as a junior with 30 TD passes and three picks, capped by a brilliant performance in the national championship game that was somewhat overshadowed by ABC's Brent Musberger gushing over McCarron's girlfriend, Katherine Webb. T.J. Yeldon rushed for 1,163 yards and 13 scores while Amari Cooper leads a deep and balanced receiving corps. Per usual, Alabama features a stellar defense that ranked No. 2 nationally, allowing 11.7 points per game and holding nine of 12 opponents to 10 points or fewer.

TRENDS:

* Oklahoma is 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games.
* Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games.
* Under is 4-0 in Oklahoma's last four versus the SEC.
* Over is 6-1 in Alabama's last seven bowl games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Warriors at Heat: What bettors need to know

Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat (-4, 204.5)

The Golden State Warriors will put their six-game winning streak on the line with their toughest test of a lengthy road trip at the Miami Heat on Thursday. The Warriors took the first two of a seven-game trip and are enjoying their longest winning streak in six years while thriving at the defensive end. Golden State will need to be at its best at that end against the Heat, who have won eight of nine and are returning home after a four-game trip.

The Warriors do not get a lot of credit for their defense but are one of the best in the league at limiting opponents. “We’ve had moments where we weren’t as effective as we’d like to be,” coach Mark Jackson said. “But, when you look at the numbers, holding a team under 40 (percent shooting), that’s the 14th time all year. Only Indiana has done it 15 times. So, we’ve got to get some recognition as far as the way that these guys defend on a high level.” Miami will test that defense with a healthy LeBron James, who returned from a one-game absence due to a groin injury and put up 26 points and 10 assists in 40 minutes at Denver on Monday.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, CSN Bay Area (Golden State), Sun Sports (Miami)

LINE: The Heat opened as 4-point faves. The total opened at 204.5.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Golden State (-9.5) - Miami (-14.5) + home court (-3) = Miami -8

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (20-13, 15-16-2 ATS): Golden State has gotten some strong performances from Stephen Curry during its winning streak and leaned on the interior and the bench in a 94-81 victory in Orlando on Tuesday. Andrew Bogut and David Lee provide a matchup issue for the Heat, and the Warriors figure to use their advantage on the inside. “We need to bring the same intensity (against Miami),” Curry said. “We feel like if we play the way we are supposed to play, we can beat everybody in this league. That is the mindset that we have and it is nice to have everybody healthy and ready to go to finish out this road trip and keep the momentum that we have.”

ABOUT THE HEAT (24-7, 14-17 ATS): James returned but Dwyane Wade went down with back spasms against the Nuggets and is considered day-to-day. Miami has been cautious with Wade all season and the team is used to playing without the All-Star, especially if Chris Bosh can maintain his current level of play. The veteran forward was named the Eastern Conference Player of the Week on Monday after putting up 22.3 points and eight rebounds in four games, and followed it up with 17 points on 8-of-12 shooting in Monday’s 97-94 triumph that closed out a 3-1 trip.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Miami.
* Underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Warriors won their lone trip to the Heat last season 97-95 behind 27 points from Klay Thompson.

2. Miami G Norris Cole (face) took a hard fall and left Monday’s game but is expected to play Thursday.

3. Lee has gone three straight without a double-double after posting 10 in a row.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

St. Mary's at Gonzaga: What bettors need to know

St. Mary's Gaels at Gonzaga Bulldogs (OFF)

Injuries and a busy schedule haven't slowed No. 21 Gonzaga, which hosts Saint Mary's on Thursday for an early West Coast Conference showdown. Guard Gary Bell Jr. (hand) is out for the Bulldogs, who are playing their third game in six days, while guard Kevin Pangos (turf toe) is playing injured and center Sam Dower Jr. (back) is questionable. Drew Barham and transfers Gerard Coleman and Angel Nunez have helped fill those gaps.

"As a player you wait and wait for your chance and when you get a chance you have to make the most of it," Gonzaga coach Mark Few told The Spokane Spokesman-Review after Monday's win against San Francisco. "By and large, everybody that got in did that." The Gaels will be without coach Randy Bennett, who is serving the second game of a five-game suspension for NCAA rules violations. Saint Mary's is 2-3 away from home, snapping a three-game skid with a win over Pacific in its WCC opener Monday.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN 2.

LINE: The line and total are currently off the board.

ABOUT SAINT MARY'S (10-3, 7-4 ATS): Forward Brad Waldow leads the Gaels with 16.8 points and seven rebounds and is second in the league with a 64.2 shooting clip. Stephen Holt (13.2), James Walker III (12.3) and Beau Levesque (11.8) also average double figures for the balanced Gaels, who started the week ranked 12th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage (43.3). The Gaels, in the middle of a three-game road swing to open conference play, are second in the WCC in scoring defense (66.3 points) and second in scoring margin (plus-10.9).

ABOUT GONZAGA (12-2, 5-6-1 ATS): Pangos leads the Bulldogs with 17.6 points and Dower (13.8) and Bell (12.7) are team's next two leading scorers. Coleman, who transferred from Providence, is averaging 8.1 points off the bench and Nunez, who became eligible after the first semester after transferring from Louisville, has scored 14 total points in his first two games. 7-1 center Przemek Karnowski adds 9.9 points and a team-high eight rebounds and can be a defensive difference in the middle.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Gonzaga.
* St. Mary's is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.
* Gonzaga is 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win.
* Over is 6-1 in St. Mary's last seven games overall.

TIP-INS:

1. Saint Mary's and Gonzaga join Duke and Kansas as the only Division I program with 25 or more wins in each of the past five seasons.

2. The Gaels and Bulldogs have meet in each of the past five WCC Tournament championships games, with Gonzaga winning three times. Gonzaga has won 8 of the 10 regular-season meetings during that span.

3. Gonzaga started the week ranked third nationally at 51.3 percent shooting and 18th at 84.5 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Iowa State Cyclones (11- 0 SU, 5-2 ATS)

There are seven teams in the Top 25 that remain undefeated, and of those Iowa State is the lowest ranked. The Cyclones are no joke though, ranking 6th in the nation in scoring, averaging 87.2 points per game. You can't say they have had an easy schedule, with wins over Michigan, Iowa and BYU.

The Cyclones are dominating the opposition on the glass, and they out-rebounded Boise State 36-31 in their last game. Iowa State ranks 11th in the nation with 42.8 rebounds per game.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS)

There are just three teams with three losses in the Top 25, so it would seem only natural that one of those teams would be the most overrated. If that's the case, we will have to look at the Tar Heels, who have not only lost three games, but they've lost all three of those to unranked teams.

First they were upset by Belmont, losing 83-80 at Chapel Hill. Then they lost on the road to the UAB Blazers, and then they suffered another home defeat by a score of 83-80 to the Texas Longhorns.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked - Creighton Blue Jays (10-2 SU, 7-3 ATS)

The Blue Jays senior forward Doug McDermott is the second highest scorer in the nation, averaging 24.8 points per game. Creighton is still undefeated at home, with a record of 7-0. They lost a pair of neutral site games to George Washington and San Diego State.

There are no shortage of tough games on the schedule for the Blue Jays as they begin conference play, but this team should be able to compete with the best in the Big East.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

No. 3 Alabama favored big over No. 11 Oklahoma Thursday
by Mark Kern

Sugar Bowl
Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -15, Total: 51.5

No. 11 Oklahoma earned a trip to the Sugar Bowl after defeating in-state rival Oklahoma State off in the final week, but will be facing an angry No. 3 Alabama Crimson team in Thursday's matchup.

These are two of the most historic teams in college football history with crazy fan bases, so expect an incredible atmosphere. However, these two teams are coming into the game on complete opposite ends of the spectrum. For the Sooners, they appeared to be on their way to potentially the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl before defeating Oklahoma State. In that game, quarterback Blake Bell came in for the injured Trevor Knight and led the team on an impressive final drive to help secure the victory for Oklahoma (7-5 ATS). While the Sooners are happy to be in this game, the same cannot be said for the Crimson Tide. They are coming off one of the craziest losses in recent history when Auburn scored a game-winning touchdown on a 100-yard field goal return. Senior QB AJ McCarron will look to end one of the greatest college careers for a quarterback (36-3 career record, two national titles) on a positive note. The last time Alabama (7-5 ATS) was in the Sugar Bowl after being eliminated from the national title race in the 2008 season, the Crimson Tide were drilled 31-17 by Utah. For Alabama to avoid that same kind of result, the team must come out prepared and ready to match Oklahoma’s excitement and energy.

The Sooners' rushing attack is one of the best in the country, ranking 18th among FBS schools with 235.8 rushing YPG. Senior RB Brennan Clay (913 rushing yards, 5.8 YPC, 6 TD) is the leader of the offense, and has proven that he is capable of taking a game over by himself. In a 41-31 victory over Kansas State on Nov. 23, he rushed for 200 yards (6.5 YPC) and two touchdowns, but was held to 70 yards (2.9 YPC) on 24 carries in the season finale. While the passing attack isn’t the most prolific in the country (186.7 YPG, 99th in FBS), junior QB Blake Bell (1,648 pass yards, 7.1 YPA, 12 TD, 5 INT) has played well at times, and figures to get the starting nod on Thursday ahead of QBs Trevor Knight (471 pass yards, 5.2 YPA, 5 TD, 4 INT) and Kendal Thompson (64 pass yards, 4.9 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT). Whoever is under center does have wide receivers that are capable of making big plays though. Senior WR Jalen Saunders (56 catches, 654 yards, 6 TD) and sophomore WR Sterling Shepard (44 catches, 540 yards, 6 TD) are both able to make big plays with the ball in their hands. In the win over Oklahoma State, Shepard had 112 yards on seven receptions, while Saunders caught the game-winning touchdown pass with less than a minute left in the game. The Sooners defense has once again been solid this season, allowing only 21.3 PPG (23rd in FBS). They give up 138 rushing YPG on 4.1 YPC, but hold opposing passers to a mere 198 YPG (6.3 YPA) on 54% completions. The secondary of the Sooners is one of the very best in the country, led by junior DB Julian Wilson (three interceptions) and senior CB Aaron Colvin (49 tackles and one interception). This duo has the ability to shut down the opposing receivers, and that will be key against Alabama QB AJ McCarron and his potent passing attack.

McCarron (2,676 passing yards, 8.8 YPA, 26 TD, 5 INT) deservedly gets a lot of the credit for his team's offensive success, but there are a lot of weapons on that side of the ball as well. His favorite receiver this season has been sophomore WR Amari Cooper (36 catches, 615 yards and 4 TD), who is one of the most electric receivers in all of the country. Against Auburn in the season finale, Cooper had six catches for 178 yards, including a 99-yard touchdown reception that gave the Crimson Tide a lead. While the passing game has been great this season, the focal point of the offense is sophomore RB T.J. Yeldon (1,163 rush yards, 13 TD). Yeldon is just another in the line of superstar running backs for the Crimson Tide, as he is a perfect combination of size (6-foot-2, 218 pounds) and speed (6.1 YPC) at the running back position. He has rushed for more than 130 yards in each of his past three games, totaling 434 yards (5.8 YPC) and 3 TD during this stretch. Alabama ranks second in the nation in scoring defense (11.3 PPG allowed), but in that loss to Auburn, the team surrendered 296 rushing yards on 52 carries (5.7 YPC). For the season, the Tide hold opponents to 108 rushing YPG on 3.4 YPC, and limit opposing passers to 166 YPG (6.4 YPA) on 53% completions. Much of that is due to sophomore DB Landon Collins (58 tackles, 6 PD), who makes a lot of big plays in the secondary like his 89-yard interception return for a touchdown against Tennessee on Oct. 26. However, his biggest role against the Sooners may be trying and slow down the run. The biggest key in this game is whether or not Alabama is hungry enough to play with maximum effort following a demoralizing defeat to Auburn.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Prediction Machine

Against the Spread Picks
260 ALA vs OKLA -15 15.1 50.1%

Straight-Up Picks
260 ALA vs OKLA 36.1 21.0 73.2%

Over/Under Picks
260 OKLA vs. ALA 51 57.0 Over 58.7% $66

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bowl Game
260 Alabama -15

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Tulane* over Hofstra by 9
Traveling from Long Island to New Orleans with a lousy team currently flounderingwith games of 50-ish scoring to play against an opponent that enjoyed a 20-0 run ina lopsided win against you on a semi-neutral floor last season (Madison SquareGarden) is a great thing to do…if you want to lose again.
TULANE, 67-56.

Michigan over Minnesota* by 4
The perimeter defense of Big Ten rookie head coach Little Pitino will be stretched tothe max against the deep range of John Beilein’s three-ballers. Minnesota’s paltry 10.7assists per game – not impressive. But Michigan forward Mitch McGarry is suddenlyinjured and out for the season.
MICHIGAN, 69-65.

Wisconsin over Northwestern* by 14
Another Big Ten rookie head coach – Northwestern’s Coach K Klone Chris Collins –gets a visit from a wily old veteran with the stronger program, and a group hitting40% on its three-point attempts, who rarely turn it over.
WISCONSIN, 69-55.

Akron* over Marshall by 1
Off awful Hawaii efforts and a hungover loss at South Carolina, Akron is posing forthe dictionary photo next to the phrase, “low energy.”
AKRON, 67-66.

***BEST BET
Wright State* over Oakland by 15
Style contrast. Wright wants to run clock. Oakland – a newcomer to Wright’s HorizonLeague Conference, wants to run. Good luck, visiting head coach who put togetherthe ridiculously hard non-conference schedule and who lost home to EasternMichigan after it!
WRIGHT STATE, 77-62.

Brown* over Rhode Island by 6
Regional rivalry sees Rhody in a bad way, without much frontcourt presence. Brown,at 41 rebounds per game, must be looking forward to this very much, but they maybe favored.
BROWN, 65-59.

Georgia State* over Troy by 15
GSU has upgraded the roster since a 1-point loss at Troy last season, when it was anon-conference road game for GSU. Now, it’s a conference (Sun Belt) home game –muy importante!
GEORGIA STATE, 78-63.

George Mason* over Penn by 14

Wisconsin-GB* over Cleveland State by 7

Wisconsin-Milwaukee* over Youngstown State by 6

Valparaiso* over Illinois-Chicago by 18

South Alabama* over Western Kentucky by 5

Arizona State* over Washington by 10
Will Smokin’ Herb’s home side sucker us in here with a couple of 7-foot stiffs to helpcontrol the pace? Not yet. At least the Ridiculous Romar Roundballers can score. Theycan’t stop anyone, though.
ARIZONA STATE, 83-73.

***BEST BET
Oregon over Utah* by 17
The Ducks of Oregon handled a long trip to Korea in style against Georgetown, aperennial NCAA Tournament squad. What’s a trip to Utah, by comparison, whenUtah is chopped liver by comparison to G-Town? Oregon has had a couple of weeksto get suspended guard Artis and forward Carter back in the groove. Oregon lost inthis building last season, during a “tank trip” in March after they’d already won 23games and were prepping for the Pac 12 Tournament, which they won (beating Utahby 21 points en route to it).
OREGON, 84-67.

Missouri State* over Illinois State by 5
Illinois State hits just 40.8% from the field. Missouri State gets to the free-throw linea lot and they have the potential to rain 3s against so-so defense.
MISSOURI STATE,69-64.

Wichita State over Southern Illinois* by 15
Salukis head coach Barry Hinson seems like a beleaguered fellow not long for the job.His team makes only 3.8 three-pointers per game, fifth fewest in the nation. The vis-itor, in case you need reminding, played in the Final Four last year.
WICHITA STATE, 68-53.

**PREFERRED
Arkansas-LR over Texas State* by 9
It’s the easiest road game that Little Rock will have played to date this season after tripsto valid NCAA Tournament sides in November and December. For the football team’ssake, Texas State has been jerked around from the WAC and now to the Sun Belt.They didn’t do much in the WAC last year, and this year’s team is scoring 7 fewerpoints per game.
ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK, 72-63.

Texas-Arlington* over Arkansas State by 7
Visiting head coach John Brady will have to wake up from a bench nap at some pointand try to figure out how to stop UT-A’s 22.3 ppg guard Reger Dowell. Teaming with19 ppg fellow senior Brandon Edwards, a forward, that’s a pretty good 1-2 punch fora home side averaging a nice 82 ppg.
TEXAS-ARLINGTON, 78-71.

Gonzaga* over St. Mary’s by 9
Maybe it was the water in Hawaii, but the Gaels of St. Mary’s woefully underper-formed expectations when swept in the Diamond Head Tournament. A 6’9”, 260 player who doesn’t shoot 3-pointers is their leading scorer, a departure from recent sea-sons that familiar conference foes could seize upon and continue the losing. But Gonzaga would like to have recently injured Sam Dower back in the lineup for theirbest chance to exploit that.
GONZAGA, 72-63.

Stanford* over California by 8

Colorado* over Oregon State by 11

Santa Clara* over Pepperdine by 8

***BEST BET
Arizona* over Washington State by 30
It’s a big number, for sure, but it could be bigger, later, so may as well take a shotagainst Washington State on the road now. They are trying to play a more aggressive,pressing game this season but average only 69 ppg. Arizona – one of the most quali-ty-balanced teams in the nation and turning it over only 11.7 times per game – willhave to be thinking, ‘You’ve got to be kidding.’
ARIZONA, 81-51.

Portland* over Pacific by 8
Pacific is the stranger in a strange land in their first season as a West Coast Conferencemember.
PORTLAND, 72-64.

San Francisco* over Loyola Marymount by 3
The host USF Dons are on everyone’s list as “WCC team on the decline.” LMU’shome ‘upset’ of BYU was interesting. But freshmen are contributing heavily for them. Can they do it on the conference road?
SAN FRANCISCO, 77-74

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WINNING POINTS

NBA BASKETBALL

*Cleveland over Orlando by 3
Orlando has fared much better on the road from a pointspread perspective coveringnine of 14 away matchups. The Magic also have revenge for a 109-100 home loss tothe Cavaliers on Dec. 13.
CLEVELAND 100-97.

*Miami over Golden State by 8
It's not a coincidence the Warriors have been playing stronger defense since AndreIguodala, their best defender, returned to the lineup.
MIAMI 97-89.

***BEST BET
*Chicago over Boston by 16
Racked with injuries, the Bulls have been one of the biggest underachievers. But theirtalent level remains higher than Boston. This is only Boston's second road appearancesince Dec. 10. The Celtics have lost and failed to cover three of their last four awaygames, including losing by seven points to Milwaukee and by eight points toBrooklyn. Bulls coach and defensive guru Tom Thibodeau takes extra pride in beat-ing his former team. The Bulls have held the Celtics to an average of 82.6 points inregulation during the past three meetings.
CHICAGO 98-82.

*Oklahoma City over Brooklyn by 14
The Nets have dealt with assorted injuries, but Brook Lopez being out long term witha broken foot may prove too much to overcome. Oklahoma City was 7-4 ATS the past11 times laying points through this past Saturday.
OKLAHOMA CITY 104-90.

*San Antonio over New York by 9
The Spurs were 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games through this past Saturdayand have a huge home revenge game on tap against the Clippers Saturday.
SAN ANTONIO 100-91.

*Utah over Milwaukee by 5
Larry Sanders is back for Milwaukee and rookie Giannis Antetokounmpo is startingto show something with increased minutes, but the Bucks were 0-6 ATS versus homeopponents with an under .400 winning percentage.
UTAH 98-93.

*Phoenix over Memphis by 3
The Grizzlies have yet to show much, but still rolled past the Suns, 110-91, at homea month ago. Memphis outscored Phoenix, 56-36, in the paint despite missing MarcGasol and Zach Randolph.
PHOENIX 104-101.

*Portland over Charlotte by 9
These have been two play-on teams. The Trail Blazers are returning home afterMonday and Tuesday road contests versus New Orleans and Oklahoma City, whilethe Bobcats are involved in their fourth road contests during the last six days and sec-ond in two nights.
PORTLAND 99-90.

***BEST BET
Philadelphia over *Sacramento by 5
Sandwiched in between road contests against Denver and Portland, this is the 76ers'chance to come away with an away victory. The 76ers have been scoring more sinceMichael Carter-Williams returned to the lineup. The Kings have failed to cover in 12of their last 17 home matchups and ranked even worse than Philadelphia in defensivefield goal percentage and 3-point defensive percentage.
PHILADELPHIA 114-109

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

★★★ KEY RELEASES ★★★
WISC-GREEN BAY by 17 over Cleveland St. (Thurs., Jan. 2)

TULANE over Hofstra by 8 to 11—12-Tul -9' 83-62

MINNESOTA 72 - Michigan 66—Although newcomers such as frosh G
Derrick Walton, Jr. are performing admirably for Michigan, make no mistake
that John Beilein is missing last year’s stars Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr.,
who led the Wolverines to the NCAA final but are now working in the NBA.
Which is one reason Michigan has lost four games already. Although the
coaching edge goes to the Wolverines in the Beilein vs. Richard Pitino sideline
matchup, not sure the fundamentals work in favor of Michigan, which has had
defensive issues in the first half of season. The Hollins boys (Austin & Andre)
likely present some issues for the Wolverines, and the Gophers have
straightened out from a few bumps in the road that they absorbed during
Thanksgiving week in Maui. 12-Mich +2' 83-75

Wisconsin over NORTHWESTERN by 12 to 15—12-Wis -8 69-41 CABLETV—ESPN2

AKRON over Marshall by 3 to 5—12-DNP

WRIGHT ST. over Oakland by 4 to 6—12-DNP

Rhode Island over BROWN by 1 to 3—12-RIU -8' 59-47

GEORGIA ST. over Troy by 7 to 10—12-TROY +4 57-56

GEORGE MASON over Penn by 12 to 15—12-DNP

★★★ WIS.-GREEN BAY 78 - Cleveland St. 61—Matchups were all wrong
last year for CSU against Green Bay, which rolled to a pair of wins and covers
(including a 27-point romp at the Resch Center). With most of the same cast
back for the Fighting Phoenix, not sure things are much better this year for the
Vikings, whose backcourt was made to look slow against uber-athletic Green
Bay PG Keifer Sykes (19.7 ppg), while 7-0 Fighting Phoenix C Alec Brown (15
ppg) is now more refined offensively than a year ago. 12-WGB -9 77-50, Wgb
-5 66-59 WIS.-MILWAUKEE over Youngstown St. by 3 to 5—12-Ysu -3' 75-72,
YSU -11' 94-80

VALPARAISO 81 - Ill.-Chicago 63—With Valpo needing to ratchet up its
offense with an upcoming trip to frenetic-paced Oakland in two days, the
Crusaders couldn’t ask for a more desirable opponent than ICU, which is
allowing 48.9% FGs (ranking 327th). Don’t see the Flames “burning too brightly”
following their emotionally-charged battle with prestigious instate foe Illinois on
Saturday. You can count on an inspired effort from the Crusaders’ top weapon,
sr. LaVonte Dority (15.6 ppg), who is a proud Chicago product. Plus, Valpo is
likely to extend the lead in late going, thanks to a solid 75% from foul line (that’s
pretty darn good these days). 12-Val -3' 75-70, VAL -12 86-61

SOUTH ALABAMA over Western Kentucky by 2 to 4—12-USA -3' 65-57,WKY -5 79-73, Wky -2' 62-59 (CT-neut.)

ARIZONA ST. 83 - Washington 68—With ASU gaining additional backcourt
depth and toughness with the recent eligibility of Michigan State transfer 6-5 G
Brandan Kearney, good spot to “lay it” vs. a U-Dub squad still too often lax on
the stop end. The perimeter-dominant Huskies will have a murderous time
contending with the Sun Devils’ mammoth 7-2, 256-pound sr. C Jordan
Bachynski (12.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg). Meanwhile, ASU’s high-level backcourt duo of 5-
10 soph Jahil Carson (19.6 ppg) & 6-4 sr. Jermaine Marshall (15.6 ppg) will
exploit U-Dub’s offensively-minded 6-5 sr. G C.J. Wilcox on the attack end.
Double revenge works. 12-WAS -5' 96-92, Was +5' 68-59 CABLE TV—
ESPNU

Oregon over UTAH by 9 to 12—12-ORE -13 73-64, UTAH +4' 72-62, Ore - 7' 64-45 (CT-neut.)

MISSOURI ST. over Illinois St. by 3 to 5—12-MSU +9' 62-55, ISU -13 86-50

Wichita St. 77 - SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 57—We can’t wait to hear SIU HC
Barry Hinson’s postgame rant after the expected beating his Salukis are likely
to absorb from revenge-minded Wichita, which will need little reminder that it
was upset in Carbondale last season. The Shockers’ confidence now soaring
after an unscathed pre-league slate vs. tough opposition, as the emergence of
soph Gs Ron Baker (14.1 ppg) & Fred VanVleet (12 ppg) as new offensive
catalysts has given Gregg Marshall a few more options on attack than a year
ago, when Shockers mostly worked inside-out, looking first to dump the ball
inside to Fs Cleanthony Early (still potent at 15.3 ppg) and now-graduated Carl
Hall. 12-WSU -15' 82-76, SIU +10' 64-62

TEXAS ST. over Arkansas-L.R. by 1 to 3—12-DNP

TEXAS-ARLINGTON over Arkansas St. by 2 to 4—12-DNP

GONZAGA over Saint Mary’s by 8 to 11—12-GON -9' 83-78, Gon +1' 77-60, Gon -6' 65-51 (CT-neut.) CABLE TV—ESPN2

STANFORD over California by 3 to 5—12-STAN -5' 69-59, Stan +5 83-70

COLORADO over Oregon St. by 11 to 14—12-Col +2 72-68, Osu +9' 64-58, Col -5' 74-68 (CT-neut.) CABLE TV—ESPNU

SANTA CLARA over Pepperdine by 1 to 3—12-Scu -8 83-76, SCU -13' 70-60

ARIZONA over Washington St. by 13 to 16—12-Ari -7 79-65, ARI -15' 73-56

PORTLAND over Pacific by 5 to 7—12-DNP

SAN FRANCISCO over Loyola-Marymount by 4 to 6—12-USF -6' 62-53, Usf -1 61-59, Loy +5 61-60 (CT-OT-neut.)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

PRO BASKETBALL

Orlando 98 - CLEVELAND 94—Rematch of Cleveland’s 109-100 win at
Amway Center on December 13, when Gs Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters
combined for 52 points to lead Mike Brown’s team. But not sure we want to lay
points with Cavs, with Waiters now nursing a wrist injury and Cleveland
slumping badly in the last week. Moreover, Cavs are just 1-9 as chalk thru Dec.
27, while Magic 9-5 as road dog to date. Sounds like a reason to take the points!
13-Cle +2 109-100 (195); 12-ORL -4' 108-104 (185), CLE -7 119-108 (199), Cle
-5 118-94 (200), CLE -5' 91-85 (203)

MIAMI 101 - Golden St. 98—Miami will be on alert against a Golden State
side that won at AmericanAirlines Arena last season. But Heat has been has
hardly been an automatic go-with as home chalk, covering only 6 of first 16 in
role at AmericanAirlines Arena, and Warriors’ ability to bomb away from
perimeter (NBA-best 45% beyond arc) suggest that points might be worth a
look. Golden State also tightening up its three-point defense lately (last three
foes just 21% from tripleville thru Dec. 26). Note Warriors “under” 11-5 on road
thru Dec. 28. 12-Gs +8' 97-95 (206), Mia -3' 92-75 (201)

CHICAGO 93 - Boston 88—With Derrick Rose sidelined and Luol Deng’s
status up in the air, we would have to be pretty nervy to make a strong case
laying points with Chicago, which has also covered just 4 of 16 tries as chalk
thru December 26. But since Boston also listing as the schedule approached
New Year’s with losses SU and vs. the spread in its last 3 thru Dec. 27, perhaps
we should be more excited about a “totals” recommendation and Celtics 11-3
“under” mark last 14 away. 12-Bos +2' 101-95 (184), CHI -1' 100-89 (181), Chi
+3 100-99 (OT-182), BOS -2' 71-69 (182)

OKLAHOMA CITY 111 - Brooklyn 93—Oddsmakers are going to make Ok
City backers lay a pretty heavy price, especially after Brooklyn’s most-recent
laid egg on Christmas against the Bulls. But we don’t mind taking our chances
with Thunder, which had won 11 of 12 SU heading into last Friday’s game vs.
Charlotte and recently notched season highs in points (123) and 3-point FG%
(54%) in Christmas Day romp past the Knicks at MSG. Generating 106.3 ppg
(third best in NBA), we know the Thunder has the horsepower to extend the
margin vs. Brooklyn side that was only 6-8 vs. line away thru Dec. 27 and had
dropped last four overall SU and vs. line prior to facing Bucks on Dec. 27. 12-
Okc -4 117-111 (195), Bro +9' 110-93 (197) TV—NBA NETWORK

SAN ANTONIO 114 - New York 101—Maybe there’s a contrarian argument
to make on behalf of the Knicks, who might have Carmelo Anthony on the shelf
after he missed action with an ankle injury last week, and have also not offered
much value in dog role, standing just 4-10 getting points thru Dec. 27. Oh yes,
New York was also throttled by Spurs 120-89 at MSG back on Nov. 10, a game
in which S.A. hit 54% from floor and Knicks could do no better than 37%. Tyson
Chandler has since returned to active duty for Knicks, who had not fared too
badly in games prior to the Christmas Day massacre engineered by Ok City.
Since S.A. backers are probably going to be forced to pay a premium, a better
alternative might be “over” (Spurs that way 5 of last 6 thru Dec. 25). 13-San -
3 120-89 (196); 12-Ny +5 104-100 (195), NY -1 100-83 (208)

UTAH 104 - Milwaukee 103—There’s a knee-jerk reaction when the
prospect of taking Milwaukee is considered. But in this case, it might not be the
worst idea, as Bucks should have 6-11 Larry Sanders back from injury, and
Larry Drew’s side had covered three in a row thru Dec. 26. Besides, we have
little interest laying points at home with Utah side that had failed to cover last
four at EnergySolutions Arena prior to Lakers’ visit on December 27. 12-UTAH
-5' 100-86 (201), MIL -4' 109-108 (OT-200)

PHOENIX 111 - Memphis 98—Prior to the season, not many would have
expected Phoenix to be laying points (maybe several of them) to Memphis at
this stage of the season. But without Marc Gasol (Griz 5-9 SU without him thru
Dec. 26) and with its “metrics revolution” having taken a detour as 9-18 spread
mark into late December would indicate, we just don’t have much interest in
backing Memphis. Meanwhile, Suns had covered 8 of last 9 thru Dec. 26 and
will be in revenge mode after uncharacteristic 110-91 beating absorbed at
FedEx Forum on Dec. 3 when a makeshift Memphis lineup without both Gasol
and Zach Randolph shot 55% from floor. Suns won’t have their gloves down this
time. Also note Phoenix “over” 9-4 at US Airways Center thru Dec. 27. 13-
MEM -3 110-91 (192); 12-MEM -10' 108-98 (OT-196), PHO +6' 82-80 (195),
Mem -4' 92-81 (185), Pho +8' 96-90 (184)

PORTLAND 111 - Charlotte 103—Not many would have considered both
of these to be playoff teams before the season began. Think again. Blazers
have cooled a bit lately (at least vs. spread), with no covers in last four thru Dec.
25. Another test for Charlotte’s road dog mark, which was 10-1 thru Dec. 27.
Note ongoing “over” trends for Portland (now 17-3 last 20 thru Dec. 25). 12-Por
+1 118-112 (OT-192), POR -13 122-105 (198)

SACRAMENTO 112 - Philadelphia 106—Not much to choose from here,
as Sacto an unreliable 1-7 as pick or home chalk, but Sixers not much better
with only 2 covers in last 13 outings thru Dec. 26. The best call at Sleep Train
might be the “over” with Kings that way 9-2 last 11 thru Dec. 26, while Sixers
“over” their last five prior to visiting Phoenix on December 28. 12-PHI -6' 89-80
(199), Phi +3 117-103 (205)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
STANFORD over California (Thurs) RATING: 5

(2:00) TULANE 79 - Hofstra 66 _____ _____

(7:00) Michigan 76 - MINNESOTA 75 (BIG10) _____ _____

(7:00) Wisconsin 70 - NORTHWESTERN 53 (ESPN2) _____ _____

(7:00) AKRON 71 - Marshall 59 _____ _____

(7:00) WRIGHT STATE 74 - Oakland 62 _____ _____

(7:00) Rhode Island 61 - BROWN 60 _____ _____

(7:00) GEORGIA STATE 62 - Troy 58 _____ _____

(7:30) GEORGE MASON 76 - Pennsylvania 71 (NBCS) _____ _____

(8:00) WISC-GREEN BAY 77 - Cleveland 59 _____ _____

(8:00) WISC-MILWAUKEE 73 - Youngstown State 72 _____ _____

(8:00) VALPARAISO 82 - Illinois-Chicago 78 _____ _____

(8:00) SOUTH ALABAMA 66 - Western Kentucky 60 _____ _____

(8:00) ARIZONA STATE 74 - Washington 61 (ESPNU) _____ _____

(8:00) Oregon 78 - UTAH 75 _____ _____

(8:00) MISSOURI STATE 67 - Illinois State 54 _____ _____

(8:00) Wichita State 80 - SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 62 _____ _____

(8:30) TEXAS STATE 63 - Arkansas-Little Rock 55 _____ _____

(8:30) Arkansas State 76 - TEXAS-ARLINGTON 73 _____ _____

(9:00) GONZAGA 78 - Saint Marys 75 (ESPN2) _____ _____

(9:00) STANFORD 71 - California 61 (FOX1) _____ _____

(10:00) COLORADO 73 - Oregon State 68 (ESPNU) _____ _____

(10:00) Pepperdine 69 - SANTA CLARA 65 _____ _____

(10:00) ARIZONA 74 - Washington State 56 _____ _____

(10:00) PORTLAND 65 - Pacific 64 _____ _____

(10:00) SAN FRANCISCO 61 - Loyola-Marymount 60 _____ _____

BEST BETS
WISCONSIN
MISSOURI STATE
ST MARYS
OREGON STATE
PEPPERDINE
STANFORD (5)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

(7:05) Orlando Magic 110 - CLEVELAND CAVS 107 _____ _____

(7:35) MIAMI HEAT 112 - Golden State Warriors 101 _____ _____

(8:05) Boston Celtics 99 - CHICAGO BULLS 94 _____ _____

(8:05) OKLAHOMA CITY 100 - Brooklyn Nets 98 (NBA) _____ _____

(8:35) SAN ANTONIO SPURS 115 - New York Knicks 106 _____ _____

(9:05) UTAH JAZZ 109 - Milwaukee Bucks 92 _____ _____

(9:05) PHOENIX 96 - Memphis Grizzlies 90 _____ _____

(9:05) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS 114 - Charlotte 110 _____ _____

(10:05) SACRAMENTO KINGS 105 - Philadelphia 76ers 96 _____ _____

BEST BETS
UTAH (1)
BOSTON (4)
ORLANDO
CHARLOTTE