STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, AUGUST 17th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 8/17/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #20
•Kershaw's Win Streak Ends At 11 In Loss To Brewers: Clayton Kershaw gave up two home runs, as many as he did in his previous 11 starts, and that was enough to abruptly snap his long winning streak. Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez homered against the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner and three-time defending major league ERA champion on Saturday night, as the Milwaukee Brewers beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-1 behind eight solid innings from Yovani Gallardo. Kershaw (14-3), who had won 11 straight decisions, allowed five hits and no walks and struck out 11 in going the distance for the 17th time in 202 career starts. "It comes down to (the fact that) I got outpitched," said Kershaw, who had a 1.16 ERA over his previous 13 starts since his last loss on May 28 against Cincinnati. Last Sunday, he held the NL Central-leading Brewers to one run in eight innings in a 5-1 victory at Milwaukee.
•Reds Place Bailey On DL, Promote Axelrod: Days after the Cincinnati Reds announced that Homer Bailey would miss his upcoming start due to a right elbow injury, the team placed the right-hander on the 15-day disabled list Saturday. The move was made retroactive to Aug. 8, meaning Bailey could be activated as soon as Friday. According to the Reds, an MRI exam revealed that Bailey has a strained flexor mass in his pitching elbow. The Reds purchased the contract of right-hander Dylan Axelrod from Triple-A Louisville, and he was scheduled to start Saturday night in Denver against the Colorado Rockies. Bailey's injury is believed to have occurred during an at-bat in an Aug. 7 start against the Cleveland Indians. Bailey threw seven shutout innings during a 4-0 victory.
After a couple of rocky stretches this season, Bailey was hitting his stride heading into the season's stretch run. In two August starts, Bailey is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA with 13 strikeouts and just walks in 14 innings. Overall, he is 9-5 with a 3.71 ERA in 23 starts. Axelrod, 29, spent parts of the previous three seasons with the Chicago White Sox, going 7-13 with a 5.36 ERA in 48 games (30 starts). Pitching for the Triple-A affiliates of the White Sox and the Reds this year, he was a combined 8-8 with a 4.09 ERA in 23 games (21 starts). To clear a spot for Axelrod on the 40-man roster, the Reds transferred first baseman Joey Votto from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day DL. Votto, out since July 6 due to a left leg injury, is not expected to begin baseball activity until the end of August.
•Trade Rumors Continue To Swirl Around Phils' Hamels: The rumors of Cole Hamels' departure will not soon subside. The ace lefthander cannot be traded until November. Whether or not to deal Hamels to replenish a depleted pool of young talent will be the winter's most significant dilemma. Hamels has made his intent clear: He wants to remain in Philadelphia. But he wants to win, and contention could take the Phillies years to recapture. "For me the idea is to try to turn it around rather quickly," manager Ryne Sandberg said. "You have to have starting pitching to do that and he'd be a big piece." That is why the Phillies will want an acquiring team to surrender three or four top prospects and assume the $96 million owed to Hamels. They are in no way motivated to trade the 30-year-old pitcher; Sandberg identified starting pitching as the team's greatest need moving forward.
"He'd be a tough one to replace," Sandberg said. "He'd be tough to replace. We have question marks about Cliff [Lee]. Cliff, we won't know. A.J. [Burnett], we don't know. You have to start your staff somewhere and he'd be a good place to start." Lee, 35, is sidelined by a strained left elbow. Burnett, 37, has a player option worth as much as $12.75 million next season. Sandberg said he does not have a read on whether Burnett will retire. Hamels entered Friday with a 1.76 ERA in his last 18 starts. He needed just 21 pitches to silence the Giants in the first two innings. The rumors may have motivated Hamels. "The good ones rise to the top, and he's a good one," Sandberg said. "I think one way or another, there was a challenge there. He's taken his game to a different level."
Around The League
--Washington Nationals right-hander Doug Fister has been nearly automatic over the past month and a half as he leads the Washington Nationals into Sunday's tilt with the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates. Fister is 7-2 straight up over his last nine starts while giving up no fewer than three runs in any of those outings.
--Oakland Athletics left-hander Jon Lester will look to make it four straight victories with his new team on Sunday Night Baseball as he takes on the host Atlanta Braves. Lester has won each of his first three starts in an Oakland uniform, posting a 2.49 ERA while allowing zero home runs over that stretch.
--The Chicago Cubs optioned outfielder Junior Lake to Triple-A Iowa Saturday and recalled right-handed pitcher Dan Straily. Lake, 24, is batting just .216 with 102 strikeouts and only 10 walks in 305 plate appearances. He batted .284 in 64 games last year but has struggled this season. Straily, 25, was acquired on July 4 as part of the trade that sent right-hander Jeff Samardzija to the Oakland A's. He went 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA in seven starts with Iowa. In parts of three major league seasons, he is 13-11 with a 4.11 ERA over 41 starts.
--New York Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka threw a 25-pitch bullpen session Saturday. It was the ace's first bullpen session in a month since going on the disabled list with a partial tear in his right elbow. Tanaka pitched from the mound before Saturday's game against the Tampa Bay Rays. Pitching coach Larry Rothschild said Tanaka looked "fine," but it is "more important how he feels tomorrow." Tanaka has been on the disabled list July 9. The club hopes he can avoid season-ending surgery and return in September. The Japanese star is 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA over 18 starts in his first season as a major leaguer.
--Minor league pitcher Francisco Almonte was handed a 72-game suspension without pay from the commissioner's office after a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs. Almonte, a right-hander, tested positive for metabolites of Stanozolol, a performance-enhancing substance in violation of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. The suspension is effective immediately after Almonte signs with another major league organization.
--The Cleveland Indians activated outfielder Michael Bourn from the 15-day disabled list. Bourn was on the DL since July 6 with a strained left hamstring. He played six games in a minor league rehab assignment with Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus that started Aug. 5. For the season, Bourn is batting .267 with nine doubles, seven triples, three home runs, 21 RBIs and 37 runs scored in 66 games.
--The Chicago Cubs traded 2009 first-round draft pick Brett Jackson to the Arizona Diamondbacks for minor league relief pitcher Blake Cooper. Jackson, a former top prospect of the Cubs, is in Triple-A. The outfielder made his major league debut in 2012 but has a .175 batting average with 59 strikeouts in 44 major league games.
--The Detroit Tigers are ready to call up right-handed reliever Jim Johnson from Triple-A Toledo but he wants one more minor league outing, according to the Detroit News. The Tigers picked up Johnson less than two weeks ago and signed him to a minor league contract. He was released by the Oakland A's on Aug. 1. Johnson, a former closer, had a 7.14 ERA in 38 appearances with Oakland before the team let him go. The A's still owe him his $10 million salary for this year.
--Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is scheduled for knee surgery on Monday that likely will end his season. The Rockies announced Thursday night that Gonzalez will undergo a procedure on the left patellar tendon but did not specify the length of the recovery or when he might return to baseball activities.
--Detroit Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander, who only pitched one inning in his last start on Monday because of shoulder soreness, will not pick up a baseball until Tuesday, Detroit manager Brad Ausmus said. Verlander could throw a bullpen session during the middle of next week if the pain is gone.
--The Pittsburgh Pirates activated right-hander John Axford as right-hander Stolmy Pimentel was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a mild right ankle sprain, according to Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle. Axford was 2-3 with 10 saves an ERA of 3.92 with the Cleveland Indians this season. "He's got great experience. Has been through a lot, wants the ball, wants to pitch. I think he's going to be a healthy addition for our club," Hurdle said of Axford, who was picked up on waivers by the Pirates on Thursday morning.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
National League
•Cubs-Mets - 1:10 PM
--Arrieta is 1-3, 4.78 in his last five starts.
--Mets are 0-5 when Montero starts (0-3, 6.48).
--Cubs lost 13 of their last 18 road games.
--Mets won last two home games, after losing previous five.
--Under is 7-2-1 in Cubs' last ten games.
•Diamondbacks-Marlins - 1:10 PM
--Collmenter is 0-1, 6.88 in his last four starts.
--Koehler is 1-2, 4.50 in his last three starts.
--Arizona is 8-13 in its last twenty-one games.
--Marlins won six of their last nine games.
--Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Arizona games.
•Padres-Cardinals - 2:15 PM
--Despaigne is 1-2, 4.91 in his last five starts.
--Wainwright is 2-3, 5.23 in his last five starts.
--San Diego won six of its last eight games.
--Cardinals won three of their last four games.
--Six of last seven St Louis home games stayed under.
•Phillies-Giants - 4:05 PM
--Buchanan is 2-1, 3.26 in his last three starts.
--Lincecum is 0-3, 8.51 in his last five starts.
--Philly lost six of its last eight games.
--Giants also lost six of their last eight games.
--Four of last five San Francisco games went over.
•Reds-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Axelrod is 7-13, 5.36 in 30 MLB starts; this is his first '14 start. He was 8-8, 4.09 in 21 AAA starts this season. Latos is 2-0, 2.08 in last three starts.
--Lyles is 1-1, 6.07 in his last six starts. Colorado is 0-7 when Flande starts (0-5, 5.59)
--Cincinnati lost five of its last seven games.
--Rockies lost 15 of their last 19 games. .
--Eight of last ten Lyles starts went over total.
•Brewers-Dodgers - 4:10 PM
--Peralta is 5-1, 2.29 in his last six starts.
--Haren is 2-0, 2.03 in his last two starts.
--Milwaukee won last three games, allowing seven runs.
--Dodgers lost three of their last four games.
--Under is 6-2 in last eight Milwaukee games.
•Pirates-Nationals - 5:05 PM
--Volquez is 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
--Fister is 6-1, 1.88 in his last seven starts.
--Pittsburgh lost six of last eight, including last five on road.
--Nationals won eight of their last ten games.
--Seven of last nine Pirate road games went over total.
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American League
•Mariners-Tigers - 1:05 PM
--Young is 3-0, 3.09 in his last four starts.
--Ray is 0-2, 11.88 in his last two starts.
--Mariners won nine of their last eleven games.
--Detroit won six of its last seven home games.
--Four of last five Young starts went over the total.
•Orioles-Indians - 1:05 PM
--Gausman is 2-1, 3.65 in his last four starts.
--Salazar is 3-1, 4.09 in his last four starts.
--Orioles lost three of their last four road games.
--Cleveland won five of its last six games.
--Last six Cleveland games stayed under total.
•Astros-Red Sox - 1:35 PM
--McHugh is 2-0, 1.40 in his last three starts.
--Kelly is 0-0, 2.07 in two starts for Boston, both Red Sox wins.
--Houston lost seven of its last eight road games.
--Red Sox won six of their last eight games.
--Six of last nine McHugh starts stayed under total.
•Yankees-Tampa Bay - 1:40 PM
--Kuroda is 0-2, 4.34 in his last three starts.
--Hellickson is 1-1, 2.05 in five starts (26.2 IP).
--New York lost five of last five games, outscored 30-10.
--Rays won seven of their last ten games.
--Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Yankees games.
•Blue Jays-White Sox - 2:10 PM
--Hutchison is 2-4, 6.69 in his last seven starts.
--Carroll is 0-2, 6.65 in his last four starts.
--Toronto lost ten of its last fourteen games.
--White Sox lost nine of their last thirteen games.
--Five of last six Hutchison starts went over total.
•Royals-Twins - 2:10 PM
--Guthrie is 3-1, 4.62 in his last four starts.
--Milone is 5-0, 3.26 in his last ten starts.
--Royals won 14 of their last 17 games.
--Minnesota won four of its last six games.
--10 of last 13 Kansas City road games stayed under.
•Angels-Rangers - 3:05 PM
--Santiago is 0-0, 2.08 in his last four starts.
--Tepesch is 1-0, 1.42 in his last couple starts.
--Angels won five of their last six games.
--Texas lost 17 of their last 24 games.
--Six of last eight Angel games stayed under total.
Interleague
•Athletics-Braves - 8:05 PM
--Lester is 3-0, 2.49 in three starts for Oakland.
--Minor is 1-3, 7.17 in his last four starts.
--Oakland lost six of its last seven games.
--Braves won three of their last four games.
--Seven of last ten Oakland road games went over total.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Cardinals Adam Wainwright is a remarkable 26-6 in his team starts (81.2%) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last two seasons. Wainwright had a solid outing last time out but didn't get enough support to take over the major league wins lead. He hasn't usually needed too much help in home starts versus the San Diego Padres and will try to have another stellar performance against them Sunday in St. Louis while earning his 15th win.
The right-hander's inability to get a 15th victory allowed Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto to take over the wins lead Friday. He'll try to move into a tie with Cueto while earning his fifth victory in as many home starts against San Diego. Wainwright has a 0.84 ERA in those prior matchups in St. Louis and gave up two runs over eight innings in his most recent one, a 3-2 win July 21, 2013. He is 5-2 with a 1.20 ERA in seven overall starts against San Diego and went 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA last season.
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