StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle – Sunday
#427 DENVER @ #428 SAN FRANCISCO
Line: 49ers -3, Total: 40
The San Francisco 49ers will christen Levi's Stadium (4:00 PM EST) on Sunday when they host the defending AFC champion Denver Broncos. The 49ers lost their opening preseason contest 23-3 to the Baltimore Ravens last week in a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII (The Harbaugh Bowl). John's Ravens came out on top again as Bernard Pierce's touchdown run in the first quarter gave the team all the points it needed against Jim's Niners.
In his only series, 49ers starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick completed his lone pass attempt, connecting with tight end Vance McDonald for a 17-yard, during a seven-play, 51-yard drive which was capped by a 25-yard Phil Dawson field goal. Rookie running back Carlos Hyde had five carries for 39 yards in his first NFL action for San Francisco while the defense was led by second-year defensive tackle Quinton Dial, who registered a game-high 10 tackles and two forced fumbles.
The Niners defense also mustered three sacks, with defensive lineman Tank Carradine and linebackers Corey Lemonier and Michael Wilhoite each getting to the quarterback. Meanwhile, cornerback Chris Cook, a free-agent pickup from Minnesota, recorded an interception and fellow corner Perrish Cox recovered a fumble.
The Broncos, on the other hand, got a little revenge in another Super Bowl rematch, upending the defending champion Seahawks, 21-16. Brock Osweiler's 34-yard touchdown pass to Jordan Norwood in the fourth quarter lifted Denver just over six months after Seattle routed the Broncos for its first Lombardi Trophy. The game was delayed for 45 minutes because of lightning with 1:30 remaining in the first quarter after Ronnie Hillman's 1-yard touchdown gave the Broncos a 7-0 lead.
That came at the end of Peyton Manning's second and final series for Denver. The five-time National Football League MVP was sharp, completing 10 of his 13 passes for 78 yards. It was a better start than Manning had Feb. 2, when the Seahawks scored the fastest points ever in a Super Bowl after a snap sailed over Manning's head and into the end zone 12 seconds into the game, sparking a 43-8 win.
This will mark the 36th preseason matchup between Denver and San Francisco, with the Broncos holding a 19-16 edge in the all-time preseason series.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 21 times, while the favorite covered the spread 13 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 21 times, while the underdog won straight up 15 times. 16 games went under the total, while 8 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 41 times, while the favorite covered first half line 28 times. *No EDGE. 22 games went under first half total, while 21 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (SAN FRANCISCO) - in non-conference games, after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game.
(63-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +43.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.6, Opponent 11.6 (Total first half points scored = 24.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (116-55).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (229-135).
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#429 KANSAS CITY @ #430 CAROLINA
Line: Panthers -3, Total: 39
Cam Newton is expected to be back on the field (8:00 PM EST) Sunday when the Carolina Panthers resume their preseason slate against opportunistic foe Kansas City. Newton, the Panthers' star quarterback who underwent ankle surgery in late March, was cleared to play a week ago according to Carolina head coach Ron Rivera. "Cam is on track to do the things we need him to do now," Rivera told reporters last Sunday. "We've mapped out a lot of things. We're now getting to the point where the work load is going to increase and things are going to change and we're going to do things differently now."
The Panthers came up short in their preseason opener against Buffalo without Newton, dropping a 20-18 decision when Jeff Tuel's touchdown pass with six minutes left in the fourth quarter lifted the Bills. Backup Derek Anderson started for the Panthers and connected with wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin on an acrobatic 29-yard touchdown early in the second quarter. "We knew he had big play ability and those are the kind of big plays we are looking for," Rivera said when discussing Benjamin, the team's first-round draft pick. Joe Webb, who is battling University of Wisconsin rookie Matt Blanchard, for the third WB spot finished 16-for-28 with 180 yards, a touchdown and added 30 rushing yards.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, outlasted the Cincinnati Bengals, 41-39, in the preseason opener for both teams last Thursday after scoring in all three phases -- offense, defense and special teams. Rookie De'Anthony Thomas had an 80-yard punt return for a touchdown while Sean Smith and Malcolm Bronson each returned interceptions for scores. Travis Kelce and Cyrus Gray scored the old-fashioned way on a 69-yard reception and 2-yard run respectively. "We want to score touchdowns in all three phases of the game and we were able to do a pretty nice job of that," Chiefs coach Andy Reid understated.
Alex Smith played three series for Kansas City, going 3-of-5 for 19 yards, while Jamaal Charles carried the ball three times for 12 yards and added two receptions for nine yards for Kansas City, which went 11-5 and made the playoffs in its first year under Reid in 2013. Kelce hauled in his 69-yard TD pass courtesy of Chase Daniel, who was 8-of-10 for 126 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the triumph as Kansas City recorded its most points scored in a preseason game since the club posted 42 against New Orleans on August 10, 1996.
These two teams have only met once prior in the preseason, which took place in August of 1997 when Kansas City defeated Carolina 30-10 at Arrowhead Stadium.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 15 times, while the favorite covered the spread 5 times. *EDGE against the spread=KANSAS CITY. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 10 times, while the underdog won straight up 10 times. 21 games went over the total, while 21 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 42 times, while the favorite covered first half line 26 times. *No EDGE. 37 games went over first half total, while 29 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CAROLINA) - off a non-conference game, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(31-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.5, Opponent 10.4 (Total first half points scored = 22.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (52-21).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (102-61).
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