Service Plays Saturday 1/3/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pro Sports Plays


Saturday NFL Football

Take Atlanta (-1) over Arizona
(10* Top Play)
4:30 EST Game Time

Atlanta has won 6 consecutive games coming off a loss against the spread and they have also won 5 of the last 6 games when playing as a favorite. Atlanta has won and covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games when the line is between +3 and -3.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Take Indianapolis (-1) over San Diego
8:00 EST Game Time

Indianapolis has won 9 consecutive games and they have also won 10 of the last 12 games when playing with 6 days or more of rest. Indianapolis has covered the spread in 10 of the last 13 games when the line is between +3 and -3.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Sunday NFL Football

Take Baltimore (-3) over Miami
1:00 EST Game Time

Baltimore has won and covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games as a favorite and they have also won and covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games when the total posted is between 35.5 and 42 points.



Take Philadelphia (-3) over Minnesota
4:30 EST Game Time

Philadelphia has won and covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games to end the regular season and they have also won and covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games vs. Minnesota.<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pro Sports Plays



Saturday NCAA Football



Take Buffalo (+6.5) over Connecticut
(10* Top NCAA Bowl Winner)

12:00 PM EST



Buffalo has covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 non-conference games and they have also covered the spread in 11 of the last 13 games coming off a win over the last 3 seasons.<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pro Sports Plays



Saturday Plays



10* Take New Mexico (+6.5) over UNLV (NCAA Top Play)



New Mexico has won 4 of the last 5 games coming off an UNDER the total and they have also covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9.5 points.



--------------------------------------------------------------------



5* Take NC State (+11) over Florida (NCAA Bonus Play)



5* Take Denver (-2) over New Orleans (NBA Bonus Play)<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Randall the Handle

Atlanta –2 over ARIZONA PINNACLE

The Cardinals are in the playoffs by default only, as nobody else in the NFC-West showed up this year and now they’ll take its 9-7 record into the playoffs to face the superior Falcons. Against winning teams this season the Cardinals went a brutal 1-6 while being outscored by close to 100 points. The Cardinals have no running game whatsoever and you’re going to have to go back a long, long time to find a team without a running game advancing in the playoffs. It just does not happen too often and this ordinary or below average team is unlikely to overcome that. Kurt Warner has had a great year but when you put the ball up a million times, you’re numbers are going to look good. Thing is, Warner is like a boxer that’s been hit so many times that by the 12th round he’s ineffective and a punch away from hitting the canvas. Warner has slowly been performing worse with each passing week and that’s because he’s been hit so many times and the defenses are just too complex for a one-dimensional offense. Meanwhile, the Falcons have a great running game and that just opens up the passing game. This team is just so much better then the Cardinals and that’s all there is to it. Show me the team in the playoffs that gains more yards running and that wins the turnover battle and 19 out of 20 times I’ll show you the winner. The Falcons run great, they hold onto the ball and if the Cardinals come close here, it’ll be a big surprise. No experience and playing on the road is troublesome to many but not to me, as I see this one as a complete mismatch. Play: Atlanta –2 (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).


SAN DIEGO +1.02 over Indianapolis PINNACLE

What’s incredible about this weekend’s games is that the four road teams are all favored and that’s simply unheard of on Wild Card weekend. We also see the public heavily tilted to said favorites and that’s never ever a good sign. One has to figure that at least one home dog will prevail and this could be the one. The Colts reeled off nine in a row and they take that streak into San Diego. Prior to that they opened the year with a 3-4 record and a close look reveals that they had one of the softest schedules in the business. In fact, the Colts last five wins came against Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Jacksonville and a disinterested Tennessee team to close out the year. The Lions almost beat them in Indianapolis, the Jags nearly beat them, losing by a TD and they squeaked by Cleveland, 10-6. They also lost to Green Bay, 34-14 and Chicago, 29-13. So, while nine wins in a row is still nine wins in a row, the Colts are not the Colts of old. They’re slower, they’re weaker on defense and they’re not at home. The Chargers, meanwhile, smoked Oakland, Tampa and Denver in the final month to miraculously get into the post season. The offense is the leagues most dangerous and when the offense is playing like this, the defense will usually step it up big time. When it counted most, that defense held the potent Denver offense to just 13 points in three quarters last week and gave up a gimme TD near the end that didn’t mean a thing. The Chargers, too, are on a roll but a much more impressive one and it says here that they dispose of this very ordinary intruder. Play: San Diego +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

apeche

3-2 yesterday +21*
22-22 Bowls YTD +13.4

24* UCONN
12* UCONN over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS Lock Club

3 units Colts +1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

donn wagner's nfl trends

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL PLAYOFF SYSTEMS

SYSTEM ONE...NFL Playoff System (18-2) since 1986.
Play the total over in all Wild Card Games and Conference Semi-Final contests when the line moves at least 2.5 points upward from the openers and/ or when the total number of that game is the highest total number being posted in games being offered that week in the playoffs.
Example One: 1986 their were only two Wild Card games played. Jets vs KC and Washington vs LA Rams. That year the Jet/KC opened at 37 and moved to 40. That is a qualifier for two reasons because the line moved at least 2.5 points and 40 was the highest of the wildcard game totals being offered in the two games.
Example Two: Last year of the four wild Card games the Pittsburgh/Cleveland total was 42. This was the highest number of the four Wild Card Games play it over. Winner 36-33.
The combination of the 2.5 moves upward and the individual high number is a buy signal. When both fall on the same game they are (9-1).
Example Three:
Game 1:Team A vs Team B Opener on total is 38 closes at 37.5.
Game 2:Game 3:Team C vs Team D Opener on total is 37 closes at 39.5.
Game 3:Team E vs Team F Opener on total is 40 closes at 43.
Game 4:Team G vs Team H Opener on total is 46.5 closes at 44.
Which games qualify as system plays if any ?
You have 3 qualifiers: Play Game 2 (over) because line movement upward of 2.5 or more points. Play Game 3 (over) so same rationale. Play Game 4 over because closing line is highest on the board of games being playing that week.
Important Note: If lines are too close and you can not determine which the highest line is pass. If line movements are not able to be charted and followed closely do not attempt to guess. A combination of 3 sharp lines were used for this study.

SYSTEM TWO: NFL SYSTEM (34-14).
If a Playoff team enters the Wild Card or Semi-Finals in the playoffs on a two-game ATS losing streak or more play on them. Note this is not straight-up losing streak but against the spread. Often gamblers would have lost money on this team in the previous two weeks and are not going to play on them now. Often you will be getting good line if you play on the ATS slumping team. This does not apply to Championship games or Super Bowl contests.

SYSTEM THREE: NFL SYSTEM (9-1).
If a team is able to knock off the defending Super Bowl Champion during the playoffs play against this team in its next playoff game if it is in the semi or conference finals. Thinking here is that the team has reached this emotional high with the victory over the defending champions and may be too full of themselves. Also Vegas may after the victory adjust the line too much giving us a great value play to fade the opponent.

THESE ARE SYSTEMS..they are not anything more or less. I like to look for trends and patterns because I believe it can improve ones handicapping. But in the same breath that in itself is not enough rationale to go out and make a big play on a game. What goes around comes around. Two of the three systems I have listed for you here lost money last year in the playoff games. But over the test of time their results obviously have been impressive.
Be well and I hope you have a great New Year in 2009
Donn Wagner and Stevie Z-Wagner.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Guaranteed Sports Pick (GSP)

NFL Wildcard Weekend Early Releases

Arizona +2.5
Colts -1.5
Dolphins Moneyline
Eagles -4

These guys have been cold recently, but most of the football year they were real good
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SIXTH SENSE

Atlanta –2 ARIZONA 50.5
ARIZONA 28 ATLANTA 24

Indianapolis –1 SAN DIEGO 50
SAN DIEGO 27 INDIANAPOLIS 21

2% SAN DIEGO +1 (pk or better)
<!-- / message -->

 

[logan1981]

Billy coleman

NFL
5* Arizona (Playoff GOY)
3* Indy

NCAA Bowls
3* Connecticut

NBA
3.5* Phil/UNDER 188
3* Chicago -6.5
3* Milw/OVER 181

NCAA BB
4* Wisconsin -10.5
3* Auburn -12.5
3* Wake Forest +3

 

[bigmoney$$$]

anyone have Kelso's picks for today ??

2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Saturday, January 03, 2009
AFC Wild Card Game
30 Units
Colts (-1) over Chargers
8:00 PM -- AFC Wild Card Game - Qualcomm Stadium
Indianapolis by 7-10

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.

AFC Wild Card Total
10 Units
Colts/Chargers UNDER 50 Points
8:00 PM -- AFC Wild Card Game - Qualcomm Stadium
47 or less points will be scored

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.

10 Units
AFC Side/Total Wild Card Parlay
AFC Side & Total Parlay

Colts (-1) over Chargers
Colts/Chargers UNDER 50 Points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS Lock Club

3 units Colts +1

The Financial pick for today is

3 UNITS OVER 50 1/2 in the Atlanta Arizona game.<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseowl/Straley

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Gow: Ct -6'
<!-- / message -->

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Raging Bull Handicappers

Early soccer releases for 1/3/09

Adelaide/Sydney FC o3 +105 (Australian A-League)

Newcastle/Wellington o2.5 -110 (Australian A-League)

Liverpool/Preston Northend o2.5 -105 (English FA Cup)

Atl. Madrid/Valencia o2.5 -155 (Spain La Liga)

Rest of card

NFL:
1* SD pk
2* AZ o51

NHL:
1* Bruins -1.5 +150
1* Leafs o6 even

NCAAB:
1* Miss. St. -3

NBA & NCAAF - Pass

 

[mtomto]

JIM HURLEY

Medium
Cardinals (+1) over Falcons
4:30 PM -- NFC Wildcard Game - University of Phoenix Stadium
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time
temperature: Around 70.

Medium
Colts (-1) over Chargers
8:00 PM -- AFC Wild Card Game - Qualcomm Stadium
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.

 

[noteworthy66]

january 3 2009
frank patron 10000 unit nfl winner

frank patron
10000 unit nfl winner
indianapolis colts (pick em)

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Dr. Canada NHL

Capitals
Sharks over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michael Smiley

Washington - Atlanta

Lincoln - Uconn

Hamilton - Indy

 

[GOFOR2]

WINNING ANGLE

NFL Ind -1 Top Play
Atl-1
Buff +6 1/2
CBB PITT+ 2 1/2 Top Play
Tenn +1 1/2
NBA Phil +10

 

[GOFOR2]

VEGAS SPORTS EXPERTS

NFL ATL -1 Top Play
IND -1
NCAA Buff +6 1/2

CBB Virginia +3
Penn St.+10
NBA Mil +1