THE GOLD SHEET- college = 11-20
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
BUFFALO (8-5) vs. CONNECTICUT (7-5)
Saturday, January 3 Day at Toronto, Canada (Dome; FieldTurf)
Connecticut 30 - Buffalo 23–Buffalo HC Turner Gill has turned around the
Bulls’ football fortunes in short order. Buffalo has gone from a 4-41 SU mark the
four seasons preceding his arrival to a MAC Championship and its first bowl bid
in 50 years. Gill’s name came up in searches to fill head coaching vacancies at
Auburn, Syracuse, and Iowa State, but he reassured his players by signing an
extension and vowing to stay in Buffalo through 2013. Star QB Drew Willy holds
just about all the passing records at Buffalo and ranks 25th this year in passing
efficiency. Behind a big, veteran, injury-free OL, James Starks ran for 119 ypg,
8th-best in the country. Connecticut, which played a tougher schedule than Buffalo, ranks 10th in the
nation in total defense, 7th vs. the pass, and allows just 3.5 ypc. An added plus
for the rugged Husky defense is the fact that 5th-year sr. CB Darius Butler, who
missed the last 3 games after being injured against West Virginia, will return to
action. Butler was one of the top NFL CB prospects before being injured, and
will undoubtedly be charged with stopping Buffalo WR Naaman Roosevelt (96
catches). On offense, the Huskies rely on the nation’s top rusher, Donald
Brown, who churned out 152 ypg on the ground. He operates behind an
equally-stout, veteran OL. QB Tyler Lorenzen had some interception issues
early in the 2008 season, but he’s thrown for 3187 yards and 15 TDs in 21 career
games, and his size (6-4, 224) makes him difficult to sack and a threat to run
(580 YR career). Buffalo was fortunate to get to this point. The Bulls were 7th in turnover
margin, with a +16 mark, and won three games in overtime. This is
Connecticut’s third bowl appearance in five years; Buffalo’s first ever (they
declined to play in the 1958 Tangerine Bowl because Orlando officials informed
them “Jim Crow” regulations would not allow the Bulls’ black players to
participate). Buffalo’s defense is going to have a hard time slowing down
Brown. The Bulls “D” ranks 94th overall, allowed 4.6 ypc, and gave up 3 TDs to
Pitt’s LeSean McCoy and 131 YR and 2 TDs to Ball State’s MiQuale Lewis.
Simply put, Connecticut is the better team with overall better athletes. If the
breaks are even, the Huskies should win (and cover).
(05-CONNECTICUT -18 38-0...SR: UConn 11-4)
ATLANTA (11-5) at ARIZONA (9-7)
Saturday, January 3, 2009
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Atlanta 11-5 9-7 24 20 153 209 43-23-16 127 220 38-17-20 -3 2.3 5.6
Arizona 9-7 8-7 27 27 74 292 51-14-31 110 221 52-13-36 0 -1.3 6.4
ARIZONA 26 - Atlanta 22—First home playoff game for the Cardinals since
1947, when RB Charley Trippi & QB Paul Christman wore tennis shoes on the
frozen turf at Comiskey Park to lead the Chicago Cardinals to a 28-21 NFL title
win against the Eagles. It’s been a long, long wait, but there are enough
positives to side with the Cards at their desert dome, where they are 6-3 as a
home dog since moving there in 2006, usually getting rabid support.
Arizona holds a valuable playoff experience edge at QB, with Kurt Warner
(30 TDs, 14 ints. TY), throwing to big, veteran wideouts Fitzgerald & Boldin
(expected to return next week). And the Cards might have re-discovered RB
Edgerrin James last week when he rushed for 100 yards after moving aside TY
in favor of younger backs. Rookie HC Mike Smith, QB Matt Ryan (16 TDs, 11 ints.), and RB Michael
Turner (1699 YR) deserve great credit for resurrecting the Falcons. But,
remember, five of Arizona’s seven losses TY came in tough games in the
eastern time zone. With their momentum restored by last week’s win, the
situation favors the home-lovin’ Cards in this battle of birds. TV-NBC
(07-ARIZ. 30-Atl. 27 (OT)...Az.24-21 At.23/102 Az.27/76 Az.36/53/0/361 At.28/42/1/303 Az.0 At.0)
(07-ARIZONA -10' 30-27 (OT)...SR: Arizona 14-10)
INDIANAPOLIS (12-4) at SAN DIEGO (8-8)
Saturday, January 3, 2009
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Indianapolis12-4 8-8 24 19 80 256 45-13-27 123 188 28-18-6 9 2.5 6.4
San Diego 8-8 7-9 27 22 108 241 51-13-34 103 247 39-11-25 5 3.4 6.9
*Indianapolis 24 - SAN DIEGO 20—These two foes are certainly familiar
with one another, with this the fourth meeting since last season. San Diego
famously won both encounters in 2007, a fluky 23-21 regular-season win and
a not-so-fluky 28-24 playoff success at Indy when backup QB Billy Volek rode
to rescue in 4th Q. Indy, however, returned favor Nov. 23 at Qualcomm
Stadium, squeezing out a 23-20 win when PK Adam Vinatieri hit a 51-yard FG
at final gun. Thus, anticipating another closely-contested affair would seem to
be in order. And in that scenario, we believe a slightly-better case can be made
for Indy. Granted, as it did a year ago when winning its last 6 heading into the
postseason, San Diego enters playoffs hot, with 4 wins in a row. QB Philip
Rivers is on fire, L.T. finally resembling his old self, and Darren Sproles has
emerged as an effective change-of-pace RB. Still, it’s not quite the same Charger
team as LY, especially on defense, without key playmaker Shawne Merriman.
And Colts are hot, too, riding an NFL-best 9-game win streak into
postseason, and now with defensive leader S Bob Sanders available for
rematch after he missed first meeting due to injury. But it’s the presence of
Peyton Manning, and Indy’s innate ability to survive close calls this season (6
wins by 4 or fewer, including road wins at Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and at San Diego) that makes
us believe Colts more likely to prevail in another anticipated nailbiter. TV-NBC
(08-Indy 23-S. DIEGO 20...S.21-19 S.25/120 I.23/91 S.24/31/0/274 I.32/44/1/250 I.0 S.1)
(07-S. DIEGO 23-Indy 21...I.25-11 S.24/91 I.26/75 I.34/56/6/311 S.13/24/2/86 S.1 I.1)
(07-S. Diego 28-INDY 24...I.29-20 S.30/99 I.18/44 I.33/48/2/402 S.17/23/1/312 S.0 I.1)
(08-Indy +3 23-20; 07-S. DIEGO +3' 23-21, S. Diego +9 28-24 (Playoffs)...SR: San Diego 15-10)
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
BUFFALO (8-5) vs. CONNECTICUT (7-5)
Saturday, January 3 Day at Toronto, Canada (Dome; FieldTurf)
Connecticut 30 - Buffalo 23–Buffalo HC Turner Gill has turned around the
Bulls’ football fortunes in short order. Buffalo has gone from a 4-41 SU mark the
four seasons preceding his arrival to a MAC Championship and its first bowl bid
in 50 years. Gill’s name came up in searches to fill head coaching vacancies at
Auburn, Syracuse, and Iowa State, but he reassured his players by signing an
extension and vowing to stay in Buffalo through 2013. Star QB Drew Willy holds
just about all the passing records at Buffalo and ranks 25th this year in passing
efficiency. Behind a big, veteran, injury-free OL, James Starks ran for 119 ypg,
8th-best in the country. Connecticut, which played a tougher schedule than Buffalo, ranks 10th in the
nation in total defense, 7th vs. the pass, and allows just 3.5 ypc. An added plus
for the rugged Husky defense is the fact that 5th-year sr. CB Darius Butler, who
missed the last 3 games after being injured against West Virginia, will return to
action. Butler was one of the top NFL CB prospects before being injured, and
will undoubtedly be charged with stopping Buffalo WR Naaman Roosevelt (96
catches). On offense, the Huskies rely on the nation’s top rusher, Donald
Brown, who churned out 152 ypg on the ground. He operates behind an
equally-stout, veteran OL. QB Tyler Lorenzen had some interception issues
early in the 2008 season, but he’s thrown for 3187 yards and 15 TDs in 21 career
games, and his size (6-4, 224) makes him difficult to sack and a threat to run
(580 YR career). Buffalo was fortunate to get to this point. The Bulls were 7th in turnover
margin, with a +16 mark, and won three games in overtime. This is
Connecticut’s third bowl appearance in five years; Buffalo’s first ever (they
declined to play in the 1958 Tangerine Bowl because Orlando officials informed
them “Jim Crow” regulations would not allow the Bulls’ black players to
participate). Buffalo’s defense is going to have a hard time slowing down
Brown. The Bulls “D” ranks 94th overall, allowed 4.6 ypc, and gave up 3 TDs to
Pitt’s LeSean McCoy and 131 YR and 2 TDs to Ball State’s MiQuale Lewis.
Simply put, Connecticut is the better team with overall better athletes. If the
breaks are even, the Huskies should win (and cover).
(05-CONNECTICUT -18 38-0...SR: UConn 11-4)
ATLANTA (11-5) at ARIZONA (9-7)
Saturday, January 3, 2009
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Atlanta 11-5 9-7 24 20 153 209 43-23-16 127 220 38-17-20 -3 2.3 5.6
Arizona 9-7 8-7 27 27 74 292 51-14-31 110 221 52-13-36 0 -1.3 6.4
ARIZONA 26 - Atlanta 22—First home playoff game for the Cardinals since
1947, when RB Charley Trippi & QB Paul Christman wore tennis shoes on the
frozen turf at Comiskey Park to lead the Chicago Cardinals to a 28-21 NFL title
win against the Eagles. It’s been a long, long wait, but there are enough
positives to side with the Cards at their desert dome, where they are 6-3 as a
home dog since moving there in 2006, usually getting rabid support.
Arizona holds a valuable playoff experience edge at QB, with Kurt Warner
(30 TDs, 14 ints. TY), throwing to big, veteran wideouts Fitzgerald & Boldin
(expected to return next week). And the Cards might have re-discovered RB
Edgerrin James last week when he rushed for 100 yards after moving aside TY
in favor of younger backs. Rookie HC Mike Smith, QB Matt Ryan (16 TDs, 11 ints.), and RB Michael
Turner (1699 YR) deserve great credit for resurrecting the Falcons. But,
remember, five of Arizona’s seven losses TY came in tough games in the
eastern time zone. With their momentum restored by last week’s win, the
situation favors the home-lovin’ Cards in this battle of birds. TV-NBC
(07-ARIZ. 30-Atl. 27 (OT)...Az.24-21 At.23/102 Az.27/76 Az.36/53/0/361 At.28/42/1/303 Az.0 At.0)
(07-ARIZONA -10' 30-27 (OT)...SR: Arizona 14-10)
INDIANAPOLIS (12-4) at SAN DIEGO (8-8)
Saturday, January 3, 2009
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Indianapolis12-4 8-8 24 19 80 256 45-13-27 123 188 28-18-6 9 2.5 6.4
San Diego 8-8 7-9 27 22 108 241 51-13-34 103 247 39-11-25 5 3.4 6.9
*Indianapolis 24 - SAN DIEGO 20—These two foes are certainly familiar
with one another, with this the fourth meeting since last season. San Diego
famously won both encounters in 2007, a fluky 23-21 regular-season win and
a not-so-fluky 28-24 playoff success at Indy when backup QB Billy Volek rode
to rescue in 4th Q. Indy, however, returned favor Nov. 23 at Qualcomm
Stadium, squeezing out a 23-20 win when PK Adam Vinatieri hit a 51-yard FG
at final gun. Thus, anticipating another closely-contested affair would seem to
be in order. And in that scenario, we believe a slightly-better case can be made
for Indy. Granted, as it did a year ago when winning its last 6 heading into the
postseason, San Diego enters playoffs hot, with 4 wins in a row. QB Philip
Rivers is on fire, L.T. finally resembling his old self, and Darren Sproles has
emerged as an effective change-of-pace RB. Still, it’s not quite the same Charger
team as LY, especially on defense, without key playmaker Shawne Merriman.
And Colts are hot, too, riding an NFL-best 9-game win streak into
postseason, and now with defensive leader S Bob Sanders available for
rematch after he missed first meeting due to injury. But it’s the presence of
Peyton Manning, and Indy’s innate ability to survive close calls this season (6
wins by 4 or fewer, including road wins at Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and at San Diego) that makes
us believe Colts more likely to prevail in another anticipated nailbiter. TV-NBC
(08-Indy 23-S. DIEGO 20...S.21-19 S.25/120 I.23/91 S.24/31/0/274 I.32/44/1/250 I.0 S.1)
(07-S. DIEGO 23-Indy 21...I.25-11 S.24/91 I.26/75 I.34/56/6/311 S.13/24/2/86 S.1 I.1)
(07-S. Diego 28-INDY 24...I.29-20 S.30/99 I.18/44 I.33/48/2/402 S.17/23/1/312 S.0 I.1)
(08-Indy +3 23-20; 07-S. DIEGO +3' 23-21, S. Diego +9 28-24 (Playoffs)...SR: San Diego 15-10)
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