THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL WILD-CARD PLAYOFFS
Atlanta (11-5, 9-7 ATS) at Arizona (9-7 SU and ATS)
The surprising Falcons, who went 4-12 during a disastrous 2007 season filled with the Michael Vick saga and coach Bobby Petrino’s bizarre exit, travel to University of Phoenix Stadium as a wild-card to take on the NFC West champion Cardinals.
Atlanta held off St. Louis 31-27 as a 14-point chalk in last week’s regular-season finale, capping the year on a three-game SU streak (1-2 ATS) that nearly vaulted the Falcons from worst-to-first in the NFC South. QB Matt Ryan, named the offensive rookie of the year earlier this week, had a disappointing outing (10 of 21, 160 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) as Atlanta lost the turnover battle 3-0. But RB Michael Turner made up for that by plowing for 208 yards and a TD, and fellow RB Jerious Norwood’s 45-yard TD run was the game-winner late in the fourth quarter as the Falcons rushed for 263 yards.
Arizona topped Seattle 34-21 as a seven-point home chalk Sunday, halting a two-game SU and ATS skid in which the Cards were blown out 35-14 at home against Minnesota and 47-7 at New England. Against the Seahawks, QB Kurt Warner (19 of 30, 263 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) got back on track, with wideout Larry Fitzgerald catching five of those passes for 130 yards and two TDs. RB Edgerrin James got out of the sideline doghouse, rushing for 100 yards on just 14 carries in his most extensive playing time since Week 5.
Atlanta is on a 4-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, most recently losing 30-27 in overtime late last season, but covering as an 11-point road ‘dog.
While the Falcons didn’t clinch a postseason berth until a victory at Minnesota two weeks ago, Arizona clinched its first division title with three games to go.
Behind free-agent acquisition Turner (1,699 rushing yards, 17 TDs), Atlanta features the league’s second-best running attack at 152.7 ypg, the sixth-best total offense (361.2 ypg) and the 10th-best scoring offense (24.4 ppg). Defensively, Atlanta allows 20.3 ppg (11th) and 347.9 ypg (24th), but despite their 11 wins, the Falcons finished the year with a minus-3 turnover margin.
Arizona ranked in the top five in the NFL in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, 3rd), total offense (365.8 ypg, 4th) and passing offense (292.1 ypg, 2nd). Warner completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,583 yards (second) and 30 TDs, against 14 INTs. On defense, Arizona ranked 28th in the league in points allowed (26.6 ppg) and yielded an average of 331.5 total ypg (19th). The Cards finished the season with an even turnover margin.
The Falcons went 7-3 ATS in non-divisional games this season, and they are on additional ATS surges of 4-0 as a road chalk of three points or less, 5-2 as a short favorite regardless of site, 6-1 after a non-cover and 13-5 on grass. Also, the SU winner went 14-2 ATS for Atlanta this year and is 22-3 ATS in the Falcons’ last 25 games.
The Cardinals, in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years and hosting a postseason game for the first time since 1947, went 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games and are on further pointspread slides of 2-7 as an underdog and 0-4 getting three points or less. However, they are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday starts.
The over has cashed in Atlanta’s last five Saturday games, but otherwise the team is on under runs of 37-14-1 on the highway, 9-4 with the Falcons as a favorite, 6-0 with the Falcons a road chalk and 5-1 against winning teams. Conversely, the over for Arizona is on tears of 35-16 overall, 9-1 at home, 15-3 against winning teams, 21-7 on grass and 37-14 with the Cards catching points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Indianapolis (12-4, 8-8 ATS) at San Diego (8-8, 7-8-1 ATS)
The red-hot Colts take their nine-game winning streak and No. 5 seed to Qualcomm Stadium to take on the Chargers, who won their last four games to claim the title in the dismal AFC West.
Indianapolis ripped AFC No. 1 seed Tennessee 23-0 last week as a three-point home pup in what was a meaningless game for both teams, which were locked into their respective playoff slots. QB Peyton Manning saw limited action, but he completed all seven of his passes for 95 yards and a TD, which turned out to be the only score the Colts would need. Indy posted a huge 390-125 yardage edge as the Titans rested or limited several players, and neither team committed a turnover.
San Diego plastered Denver 52-21 as a seven-point home chalk in a winner-takes-the-division contest, improving to 3-1 ATS in its last four games and becoming the only team in NFL history to make the playoffs after a 4-8 start. QB Philip Rivers (15 of 20, 207 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) continued his stellar play and led a turnover-free offense, while RBs Darren Sproles (14 carries, 115 yards, 1 TD) and LaDainian Tomlinson (14 carries, 96 yards, 3 TDs) paced a ground game that rolled up a franchise-record 289 yards. The Chargers outgained the Broncos 491-406 and won the time-of-possession battle by more than 12 minutes (36:07-23:53).
Indianapolis went to San Diego on Nov. 23 and edged the Chargers 23-20 as a three-point road ‘dog, halting a three-game SU and four-game ATS surge by the Chargers in this seemingly annual rivalry. Last year, San Diego beat the Colts during the regular season 23-21 as a 3½-point home underdog, then upended Indy 28-24 as a healthy 10½-point road pup in the AFC divisional playoff round. The underdog is on a 6-0 ATS tear in this series, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.
Indy finished in the middle of the pack this season offensively, averaging 23.6 points (15th) and 335.5 total yards per game (15th), but the Colts’ passing game rated fifth (255.9 ypg), with Manning completing 66.8 percent of his throws for 4,002 yards (sixth) with 27 TDs and 12 INTs. Defensively, Indianapolis rated seventh in the league in points allowed (18.6) and were 10th in total yards allowed (310.9). Also a big factor to the Colts’ success was the fact they finished with a plus-9 turnover differential.
San Diego finished second in the league in scoring at 27.4 ppg and put up 349 ypg (11th), including 241.1 passing yards (seventh). Rivers finished as the NFL’s highest rated passer, completing 65 percent of his throws for 4,009 yards (5th in the league) and 34 TDs (tied for first) with just 11 INTs. On defense, the Chargers allowed 349.9 ypg (25th), but that only translated into 21.7 ppg for their opponents (15th), and the Chargers had a plus-4 turnover differential.
The Colts are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after a spread-cover and went 5-8 ATS as a favorite this season, but otherwise they’re on ATS runs of 4-2 overall, 4-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 against AFC foes and 4-2 after a SU win. The Chargers carry several positive pointspread streaks, including 11-4 at home, 12-4 after a SU win, 18-6-1 against the AFC, 8-3-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in January. The lone negative: San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last five Saturday contests.
The under for Indianapolis is on stretches of 4-0 in road playoff games, 5-0 on Saturday, 4-1 against the AFC and 5-2 in the postseason, and the under for San Diego is on spurts of 4-0 on Saturday, 6-1 in January, 4-1-1 at home, 4-1 in the playoffs and 6-2-1 against AFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
Buffalo (8-5, 9-4 ATS) vs. Connecticut (7-5, 5-6 ATS) (at Toronto)
Buffalo aims to keep its hot streak going when it plays in its first bowl game ever, crossing the Canadian border to take on Connecticut at the Rogers Centre.
The Bulls went 6-1 SU (4-2 ATS in lined games) over their last seven contests, with three overtime victories, including back-to-back upset wins on the road at Akron and Bowling Green.
Buffalo’s run led to the Mid-American Conference East division title and a berth in the MAC championship game, where the Bulls routed previously unbeaten Ball State 42-24 as a heavy 15-point pup on Dec. 5. QB Drew Willy (19 of 28, 206 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had a strong outing, while WR Naaman Roosevelt (10 catches, 116 yards, 3 TDs) and RB James Starks (19 carries, 82 yards, 1 TD) also had big nights. But turnovers proved the difference: Buffalo got outgained by a mile, 503-301, but the Bulls forced five turnovers while committing just two.
The Huskies ended the year on an 0-2 SU and ATS skid in the Big East, including a 34-10 home loss to Pittsburgh as a one-point chalk in their Dec. 6 regular-season finale. QB Tyler Lorenzen had a dismal showing that day, completing just 6 of 27 passes for 80 yards with no TDs and a pair of INTs, and backup Zach Frazer was even worse, going 0-for-4 with three INTs. That negated a huge ground game from RB Donald Brown II (34 carries, 189 yards, 1 TD).
These teams actually share some history, having met every season from 1999-2005, and UConn is 12-4 SU in 16 clashes overall. Most recently, the Huskies are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this series, all from the favorite’s role and all in blowout fashion, including a 38-0 beatdown laying 18 points in 2005.
The postseason is uncharted territory for Buffalo, but in coach Turner Gill’s three years at the school, he has turned around a program that was once the laughingstock of the nation, as the Bulls were 1-10 in 2005, the season before Gill’s arrival. Connecticut is also relatively new to the bowl scene, playing in just its third postseason contest (1-1 SU and ATS in the previous two). Last year, the Huskies lost to Wake Forest 24-10 as a 1½-point pup in the Meineke Bowl.
Buffalo put up 31.1 points and 380.5 yards per game, with a fair mix of passing (239.5) and running (141.1). Willy completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 3,091 yards, with 25 TDs against just five INTs. Starks rolled up 1,308 rushing yards (5.1 ypc) and 15 TDs, and Roosevelt had 1,312 receiving yards (13.7 ypc) and 13 TDs. Defensively, Buffalo allows 27.5 ppg and is near the bottom nationally with per-game averages of 408.3 total yards (95th), 249.5 passing yards (97th) and 158.8 rushing yards (84th).
Connecticut, which finished fifth in the Big East, sports the No. 19 rushing offense, at 204.7 ypg, and averages 351.9 total yards and 23.8 points. Brown rumbled for a nation-leading 1,822 yards and 17 TDs on 338 carries (5.4 ypc). Lorenzen was injured in the third game of the year and missed four games, during which UConn went 1-3 (2-2 ATS). He completed just 48.1 percent of his passes for 820 yards with two TDs offset by eight INTs, but he also ran for 252 yards (4.1 ypc).
The Huskies are solid on the other side of the ball, ranking in the top 25 nationally in four defensive categories: passing yards allowed (164.5, eighth), total yards (281.4, 10th), rushing yards (116.9, 20th) and points (19.8, 23rd).
The Bulls went 5-1 ATS against bowl-caliber teams this year and are on additional pointspread streaks of 4-1 overall, 6-1 after a SU win, 20-8 as an underdog and 6-1 as a ‘dog of 3½-10 points. However, Buffalo is on a 2-8 ATS slide against the Big East. The Huskies carry positive ATS trends of 9-2 after a non-cover, 9-3 after a SU loss and 9-4-1 as a chalk of 3½-10 points, but they are on ATS declines of 2-9 against winning teams and 1-4 in non-conference play.
The over for Buffalo is on stretches of 6-1 overall and 6-2 against winning teams, but the under has cashed in each of the Bulls’ last eight games against Big East foes and is 13-4 run in its last 17 non-conference contests. Additionally, the under for UConn is on streaks of 5-1 against the MAC, 5-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(3) Pittsburgh (13-0, 5-3 ATS) at (11) Georgetown (10-1, 5-2 ATS)
Five days after going to UConn and handing the Huskies their first loss of the season, Georgetown returns home looking to pin the first defeat on Pitt as these two Big East powers square off for the first time since last year’s conference tournament championship game.
Playing the first of three straight contests against ranked Big East opponents, the Hoyas tipped off their league season with Monday’s impressive 74-63 win at UConn, springing the upset as a 6½-point underdog. Georgetown, which has won seven in a row, jumped out to a 36-27 halftime lead and never looked back as four starters scored in double figures and the Hoyas shot 47.2 percent from the field, making 6 of 13 tries from 3-point range.
Pitt closed out 2007 with Wednesday’s 78-72 Big East-opening victory over Rutgers, falling way short as a 13½-point road chalk. It marked the 11th time in 13 games that the Panthers had scored at least 74 points in a game, but they allowed a season high in points, leading to their smallest margin of victory this season. In fact, after starting out with 11 consecutive double-digit wins, Pitt has won its last two by eight and six points.
The Panthers downed Georgetown twice last season, prevailing 69-60 as a one-point home underdog in mid-January, then rolling to a 74-65 victory as a 5½-point pup in the Big East Tournament title clash. The ‘dog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, the visitor is 9-3 ATS In the last 12 and the SU winner is 7-2 ATS in the last nine (4-0 ATS in the last four).
The Hoyas have the 11th-best scoring defense in the nation (56.3 ppg allowed) and the third-best field-goal percentage (34.3). Meanwhile, Pitt is outscoring its opponents by an average of 20 points per game (78-58) while shooting 47.5 percent from the field and allowing 36.6 percent on defense (seventh best in the nation).
Pitt is on ATS streaks of 5-1 on the road and 4-0 after a non-cover, while Georgetown has covered in four straight lined games but is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after a spread-cover.
For Pitt, the over is on runs of 14-6 overall, 10-1 in Big East action, 7-1 after a non-cover and 29-14 on Saturday. The over is also 6-1 in the Hoyas’ last seven Saturday outings, but otherwise Georgetown is on under stretches of 49-22 at home and 37-17 in conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE:NONE
(24) Ohio State (10-1, 4-4 ATS) at (21) Minnesota (12-1, 5-3 ATS)
Minnesota will try to rebound from its first loss of the season when it hosts Ohio State in the second Big Ten contest for both schools.
After getting through the non-conference portion of their schedule unscathed, the Golden Gophers ran up against 10th-ranked Michigan State in its league lifter Wednesday, falling 70-58 as a one-point home underdog. Minnesota, which saw a 4-0 ATS run come to an end in the defeat, scored fewer than 60 points for the first time this season and allowed 70 for just the fourth time.
Four days after tasting defeat for the first time in an ugly 76-48 home loss to West Virginia, the Buckeyes got back on track with Wednesday’s 68-65 Big Ten win over Iowa, failing as an eight-point home favorite. West Virginia is the only team to have scored more than 68 points against Ohio State, which is surrendering just 56.6 points per game, which ranks 13th in the country.
These teams split their season series last year, with Ohio State winning 76-60 as a seven-point home favorite and the Gophers rolling 71-57 as a 2½-point home choice. The host is on a 7-3 SU roll in this rivalry, but just 5-5 ATS (3-1 ATS last four). The Buckeyes have cashed in four of the last five meetings, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four.
In addition to facing Michigan State, Minnesota beat No. 9 Louisville 70-64 as a nine-point underdog in its only other contest against a ranked opponent. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 2-0 SU and ATS against ranked foes, posting five-point upset victories over Miami (Fla.) and Notre Dame in consecutive games to start December.
The Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall, but 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Big Ten battles. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 on Saturday, however it has now failed to cover in five of its last six Big Ten affairs.
The under is on runs of 38-17-1 for Ohio State on Saturday, 5-1 for Ohio State against winning teams, 17-5 for Minnesota overall, 36-17 for Minnesota overall, 37-14 for Minnesota on Saturday and 6-2 in this rivalry (3-1 at Minnesota).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
Penn State (12-2, 5-2 ATS) at Wisconsin (10-3, 6-5 ATS)
The Nittany Lions, riding a five-game winning streak, face their toughest test of the season when they invade the Kohl Center for a Big Ten clash against Wisconsin.
Penn State, which faces three straight ranked league opponents after this contest, kicked off league play with Wednesday’s 61-57 victory over Northwestern, rallying from a five-point halftime deficit to cover as a 2½-point home favorite. The Nittany Lions have given up more than 65 points just three times this season, and they’re allowing just 55.8 points per game during their winning streak and 60.1 ppg for the season.
The Badgers pummeled 23rd-ranked Michigan 73-61 in Wednesday’s Big Ten debut, covering as a 3½-point road underdog as they bounced back from a five-point home loss to ninth-ranked Texas in their previous game. As usual, Wisconsin has been doing it with defense, surrendering 61 points or fewer in 10 of its 13 games and allowing just 59.8 ppg overall.
The Badgers are on an eight-game SU and ATS winning streak against Penn State (all as a favorite), rolling to a pair of double-digit wins last year: 71-44 as a 17½-point home favorite and 80-55 as a 4½-point road chalk. Wisconsin’s last four home games against Penn State have been decided by point margins of 23, 29, 26 and 36 points.
Penn State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games after a spread-cover, but otherwise the Nittany Lions are on ATS tears of 7-2 overall, 4-1 in Big Ten games and 4-1 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is on pointspread runs of 5-2 overall, 13-5 after a SU victory, 8-1 in Big Ten action, 4-1 versus winning teams and 4-0 on Saturday.
The under is 4-0 in the last four series clashes overall and 4-0 in the last four battles at the Kohl Center. Also, the under is on runs of 4-1 for Penn State overall, 4-1 for Penn State in Big Ten play, 5-0 for Penn State on Saturday, 16-7-1 for Wisconsin at home, 6-2 for Wisconsin in league action and 11-3 for Wisconsin on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER
(14) Tennessee (9-2, 6-3 ATS) at Kansas (9-3, 4-3 ATS)
Tennessee makes the always-difficult trek to Allen Fieldhouse for a non-conference clash with Kansas, which is searching for consistency.
The Volunteers suffered an 88-72 loss at Temple in their last road game, but they’ve come back to win their last three (all at home), including an 80-68 win over 24th-ranked Marquette as a six-point favorite and Monday’s 89-62 rout of Louisiana-Lafayette, barely cashing as a 25½-point chalk. Tennessee’s offense has been clicking all season, topping 70 points in every game so far, and it ranks fifth nationally in scoring offense (84.5 ppg).
The Jayhawks crushed Albany 79-43 in a non-lined home game Tuesday, but they’ve alternated SU wins and losses in their last five contests. Kansas has held nine of its 12 opponents to 62 points or less and is surrendering exactly 62 ppg on the season (37.4 percent shooting), but Bill Self’s squad has yet to face a ranked opponent.
The Vols are in ATS ruts of 2-6 versus the Big 12, 0-4-1 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points and 0-5 when hitting the road after a homestand of three games or more. Conversely, despite their recent struggles, the Jayhawks are on ATS upticks of 10-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 on Saturday, 12-4 in non-conference games and 6-0 against the SEC.
The over is 5-0 in Tennessee’s last five games against the Big 12, but otherwise Bruce Pearl’s squad is on under stretches of 8-2 on the road and 8-2 after a non-cover. The over is also 4-1 in Kansas’ last five overall and 4-0 in its last four after a victory, but the under is 6-2 in its last eight against the SEC and 4-1 in its last five Saturday outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS
(7) Notre Dame (10-2, 4-3 ATS) at St. John’s (9-4, 3-4 ATS)
Notre Dame looks to extend a four-game winning streak and hand St. John’s its fourth straight loss when these Big East foes face off at Carnesecca Arena.
Since suffering a 67-62 loss at Ohio State on Dec. 6, Notre Dame has reeled off four straight double-digit wins, including a 92-82 rout of DePaul as 6½-point road favorite in Wednesday’s Big East opener. The Fighting Irish have scored more than 80 points nine times this year, topping the 90-point barrier four times, but they allowed their second-highest point total of the season against DePaul.
The Red Storm have followed up a seven-game winning streak with three consecutive ugly losses to Virginia Tech (81-67) and Miami (70-56) at home, as well as Wednesday’s conference-opening 75-54 disaster at Providence as an eight-point underdog. Twelve of St. John’s 13 games have been decided by double digits.
In the only meeting between these squads last year, the Irish rolled to a 68-55 home win, but came up just short as a 15-point underdog. Notre Dame is 6-3 SU in the last nine head-to-head clashes, but St. John’s has cashed in the last three, all as an underdog. The host is 7-2 SU in the last nine regular-season battles.
Notre Dame has cashed in six of its last eight league games, but it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games on Saturday and 2-5 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning mark. Meanwhile, the Red Storm are 4-1 ATS in their last five Big East contests and 4-1 ATS in their last five coming off a loss of 20 points or more, but they’ve failed to cover in four straight against winning teams.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these squads, and is also on streaks for Notre Dame of 17-7 overall, 10-4 on the road, 20-9 on Saturday and 20-7 in Big East play. However, St. John’s is riding under streaks of 14-6 overall, 11-2 in Big East play and 9-1 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(10) Michigan State (10-2, 5-4 ATS) at Northwestern (8-3, 4-3-1 ATS)
Michigan State goes in search of its seventh consecutive victory when it travels to Evanston, Ill., for a Big Ten battle with Northwestern.
The Spartans had a successful Big Ten debut Wednesday, beating Minnesota 70-58 as a one-point road chalk to hand the Golden Gophers their first defeat of the season. During its six-game winning streak, Michigan State is averaging 81.8 ppg and giving up only 61.3 ppg, holding all six opponents to 66 points or less, and nine of the team’s 10 victories have been double-digit romps.
The Wildcats came up short in their conference opener Wednesday, falling 61-57 as a 2½-point road underdog. Northwestern, which has lost two of its last three games, has scored 53, 59 and 53 points in its three defeats, the only times this season it has scored fewer than 63 points. Today marks the team’s first game against a ranked opponent.
This has been a one-sided rivalry, with the Spartans winning 38 of the last 40 meetings, including nine double-digit routs in the last 10 games. Last year, Michigan State won 78-62 as a 10-point road chalk and 70-55 at home, but failed as an 18½-point favorite. Still, the Spartans are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Evanston, all as a favorite.
Michigan State is on ATS runs of 4-1 on the road and 5-1 in Big Ten play, but Tom Izzo’s team is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 on Saturday and 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a SU victory. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are in pointspread funks of 6-15 at home and 1-4 in league action.
The under is on stretches of 5-1 for Michigan State overall, 6-2 for Michigan State on the road, 12-5 for Northwestern overall, 5-1 for Northwestern in Big Ten action and 6-2 for Northwestern on Saturday. However, the Wildcats have topped the total in 13 of their last 18 home contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
(6) Wake Forest (12-0, 4-4 ATS) at BYU (11-1, 7-4 ATS)
BYU puts the nation’s longest home winning streak on the line tonight when it hosts sixth-ranked an unbeaten Wake Forest at the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah.
The Cougars hit the road for their last two games, getting clipped 76-75 at 20th-ranked Arizona State as a 3½-point underdog two Saturdays ago – their first defeat of the season – before bouncing back with Tuesday’s 74-68 win over Tulsa as a 1½-point road chalk. BYU has won 53 straight games at the Marriott Center, going 7-0 this year, but only 2-4 ATS in lined contests. The Cougars have scored at least 74 points in all but one game this season, and they’re averaging 82.2 ppg at home (52.4 percent shooting).
Wake Forest, which closes out non-conference play with this game before beginning its ACC season at home against top-ranked North Carolina next Sunday, is coming off Tuesday’s 83-61 rout of Radford in a non-lined home game. The Demon Deacons have eclipsed 80 points in nine games this year, including the last three in a row, and they’re 5-0 in road-neutral site games (2-3 ATS).
The Cougars went to Winston-Salem, N.C., last January as a 1½-point road underdog and fell 79-62. Both teams enter this year’s matchup averaging more than 80 points per game (84.5 for Wake Forest, 80.8 for BYU) and shooting better than 50 percent from the field (51.3 for Wake Forest, 52.2 for BYU). The Demon Deacons are sixth nationally in scoring and third in field-goal percentage, while the Cougars are 26th in scoring and second in field-goal offense.
Wake Forest is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games against teams with a winning record, but 1-5 ATS in its last six true road games, while BYU is mired in pointspread slumps of 2-6 at home, 0-5 against ACC foes and 1-4 after a non-cover.
The over is on runs of 5-2 for Wake on the road, 4-0 for BYU overall and 4-1 for BYU on Saturday. However, the under is 4-0 in the Cougars’ last four against the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NFL WILD-CARD PLAYOFFS
Atlanta (11-5, 9-7 ATS) at Arizona (9-7 SU and ATS)
The surprising Falcons, who went 4-12 during a disastrous 2007 season filled with the Michael Vick saga and coach Bobby Petrino’s bizarre exit, travel to University of Phoenix Stadium as a wild-card to take on the NFC West champion Cardinals.
Atlanta held off St. Louis 31-27 as a 14-point chalk in last week’s regular-season finale, capping the year on a three-game SU streak (1-2 ATS) that nearly vaulted the Falcons from worst-to-first in the NFC South. QB Matt Ryan, named the offensive rookie of the year earlier this week, had a disappointing outing (10 of 21, 160 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) as Atlanta lost the turnover battle 3-0. But RB Michael Turner made up for that by plowing for 208 yards and a TD, and fellow RB Jerious Norwood’s 45-yard TD run was the game-winner late in the fourth quarter as the Falcons rushed for 263 yards.
Arizona topped Seattle 34-21 as a seven-point home chalk Sunday, halting a two-game SU and ATS skid in which the Cards were blown out 35-14 at home against Minnesota and 47-7 at New England. Against the Seahawks, QB Kurt Warner (19 of 30, 263 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) got back on track, with wideout Larry Fitzgerald catching five of those passes for 130 yards and two TDs. RB Edgerrin James got out of the sideline doghouse, rushing for 100 yards on just 14 carries in his most extensive playing time since Week 5.
Atlanta is on a 4-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, most recently losing 30-27 in overtime late last season, but covering as an 11-point road ‘dog.
While the Falcons didn’t clinch a postseason berth until a victory at Minnesota two weeks ago, Arizona clinched its first division title with three games to go.
Behind free-agent acquisition Turner (1,699 rushing yards, 17 TDs), Atlanta features the league’s second-best running attack at 152.7 ypg, the sixth-best total offense (361.2 ypg) and the 10th-best scoring offense (24.4 ppg). Defensively, Atlanta allows 20.3 ppg (11th) and 347.9 ypg (24th), but despite their 11 wins, the Falcons finished the year with a minus-3 turnover margin.
Arizona ranked in the top five in the NFL in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, 3rd), total offense (365.8 ypg, 4th) and passing offense (292.1 ypg, 2nd). Warner completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,583 yards (second) and 30 TDs, against 14 INTs. On defense, Arizona ranked 28th in the league in points allowed (26.6 ppg) and yielded an average of 331.5 total ypg (19th). The Cards finished the season with an even turnover margin.
The Falcons went 7-3 ATS in non-divisional games this season, and they are on additional ATS surges of 4-0 as a road chalk of three points or less, 5-2 as a short favorite regardless of site, 6-1 after a non-cover and 13-5 on grass. Also, the SU winner went 14-2 ATS for Atlanta this year and is 22-3 ATS in the Falcons’ last 25 games.
The Cardinals, in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years and hosting a postseason game for the first time since 1947, went 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games and are on further pointspread slides of 2-7 as an underdog and 0-4 getting three points or less. However, they are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday starts.
The over has cashed in Atlanta’s last five Saturday games, but otherwise the team is on under runs of 37-14-1 on the highway, 9-4 with the Falcons as a favorite, 6-0 with the Falcons a road chalk and 5-1 against winning teams. Conversely, the over for Arizona is on tears of 35-16 overall, 9-1 at home, 15-3 against winning teams, 21-7 on grass and 37-14 with the Cards catching points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Indianapolis (12-4, 8-8 ATS) at San Diego (8-8, 7-8-1 ATS)
The red-hot Colts take their nine-game winning streak and No. 5 seed to Qualcomm Stadium to take on the Chargers, who won their last four games to claim the title in the dismal AFC West.
Indianapolis ripped AFC No. 1 seed Tennessee 23-0 last week as a three-point home pup in what was a meaningless game for both teams, which were locked into their respective playoff slots. QB Peyton Manning saw limited action, but he completed all seven of his passes for 95 yards and a TD, which turned out to be the only score the Colts would need. Indy posted a huge 390-125 yardage edge as the Titans rested or limited several players, and neither team committed a turnover.
San Diego plastered Denver 52-21 as a seven-point home chalk in a winner-takes-the-division contest, improving to 3-1 ATS in its last four games and becoming the only team in NFL history to make the playoffs after a 4-8 start. QB Philip Rivers (15 of 20, 207 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) continued his stellar play and led a turnover-free offense, while RBs Darren Sproles (14 carries, 115 yards, 1 TD) and LaDainian Tomlinson (14 carries, 96 yards, 3 TDs) paced a ground game that rolled up a franchise-record 289 yards. The Chargers outgained the Broncos 491-406 and won the time-of-possession battle by more than 12 minutes (36:07-23:53).
Indianapolis went to San Diego on Nov. 23 and edged the Chargers 23-20 as a three-point road ‘dog, halting a three-game SU and four-game ATS surge by the Chargers in this seemingly annual rivalry. Last year, San Diego beat the Colts during the regular season 23-21 as a 3½-point home underdog, then upended Indy 28-24 as a healthy 10½-point road pup in the AFC divisional playoff round. The underdog is on a 6-0 ATS tear in this series, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.
Indy finished in the middle of the pack this season offensively, averaging 23.6 points (15th) and 335.5 total yards per game (15th), but the Colts’ passing game rated fifth (255.9 ypg), with Manning completing 66.8 percent of his throws for 4,002 yards (sixth) with 27 TDs and 12 INTs. Defensively, Indianapolis rated seventh in the league in points allowed (18.6) and were 10th in total yards allowed (310.9). Also a big factor to the Colts’ success was the fact they finished with a plus-9 turnover differential.
San Diego finished second in the league in scoring at 27.4 ppg and put up 349 ypg (11th), including 241.1 passing yards (seventh). Rivers finished as the NFL’s highest rated passer, completing 65 percent of his throws for 4,009 yards (5th in the league) and 34 TDs (tied for first) with just 11 INTs. On defense, the Chargers allowed 349.9 ypg (25th), but that only translated into 21.7 ppg for their opponents (15th), and the Chargers had a plus-4 turnover differential.
The Colts are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after a spread-cover and went 5-8 ATS as a favorite this season, but otherwise they’re on ATS runs of 4-2 overall, 4-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 against AFC foes and 4-2 after a SU win. The Chargers carry several positive pointspread streaks, including 11-4 at home, 12-4 after a SU win, 18-6-1 against the AFC, 8-3-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in January. The lone negative: San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last five Saturday contests.
The under for Indianapolis is on stretches of 4-0 in road playoff games, 5-0 on Saturday, 4-1 against the AFC and 5-2 in the postseason, and the under for San Diego is on spurts of 4-0 on Saturday, 6-1 in January, 4-1-1 at home, 4-1 in the playoffs and 6-2-1 against AFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
Buffalo (8-5, 9-4 ATS) vs. Connecticut (7-5, 5-6 ATS) (at Toronto)
Buffalo aims to keep its hot streak going when it plays in its first bowl game ever, crossing the Canadian border to take on Connecticut at the Rogers Centre.
The Bulls went 6-1 SU (4-2 ATS in lined games) over their last seven contests, with three overtime victories, including back-to-back upset wins on the road at Akron and Bowling Green.
Buffalo’s run led to the Mid-American Conference East division title and a berth in the MAC championship game, where the Bulls routed previously unbeaten Ball State 42-24 as a heavy 15-point pup on Dec. 5. QB Drew Willy (19 of 28, 206 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had a strong outing, while WR Naaman Roosevelt (10 catches, 116 yards, 3 TDs) and RB James Starks (19 carries, 82 yards, 1 TD) also had big nights. But turnovers proved the difference: Buffalo got outgained by a mile, 503-301, but the Bulls forced five turnovers while committing just two.
The Huskies ended the year on an 0-2 SU and ATS skid in the Big East, including a 34-10 home loss to Pittsburgh as a one-point chalk in their Dec. 6 regular-season finale. QB Tyler Lorenzen had a dismal showing that day, completing just 6 of 27 passes for 80 yards with no TDs and a pair of INTs, and backup Zach Frazer was even worse, going 0-for-4 with three INTs. That negated a huge ground game from RB Donald Brown II (34 carries, 189 yards, 1 TD).
These teams actually share some history, having met every season from 1999-2005, and UConn is 12-4 SU in 16 clashes overall. Most recently, the Huskies are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this series, all from the favorite’s role and all in blowout fashion, including a 38-0 beatdown laying 18 points in 2005.
The postseason is uncharted territory for Buffalo, but in coach Turner Gill’s three years at the school, he has turned around a program that was once the laughingstock of the nation, as the Bulls were 1-10 in 2005, the season before Gill’s arrival. Connecticut is also relatively new to the bowl scene, playing in just its third postseason contest (1-1 SU and ATS in the previous two). Last year, the Huskies lost to Wake Forest 24-10 as a 1½-point pup in the Meineke Bowl.
Buffalo put up 31.1 points and 380.5 yards per game, with a fair mix of passing (239.5) and running (141.1). Willy completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 3,091 yards, with 25 TDs against just five INTs. Starks rolled up 1,308 rushing yards (5.1 ypc) and 15 TDs, and Roosevelt had 1,312 receiving yards (13.7 ypc) and 13 TDs. Defensively, Buffalo allows 27.5 ppg and is near the bottom nationally with per-game averages of 408.3 total yards (95th), 249.5 passing yards (97th) and 158.8 rushing yards (84th).
Connecticut, which finished fifth in the Big East, sports the No. 19 rushing offense, at 204.7 ypg, and averages 351.9 total yards and 23.8 points. Brown rumbled for a nation-leading 1,822 yards and 17 TDs on 338 carries (5.4 ypc). Lorenzen was injured in the third game of the year and missed four games, during which UConn went 1-3 (2-2 ATS). He completed just 48.1 percent of his passes for 820 yards with two TDs offset by eight INTs, but he also ran for 252 yards (4.1 ypc).
The Huskies are solid on the other side of the ball, ranking in the top 25 nationally in four defensive categories: passing yards allowed (164.5, eighth), total yards (281.4, 10th), rushing yards (116.9, 20th) and points (19.8, 23rd).
The Bulls went 5-1 ATS against bowl-caliber teams this year and are on additional pointspread streaks of 4-1 overall, 6-1 after a SU win, 20-8 as an underdog and 6-1 as a ‘dog of 3½-10 points. However, Buffalo is on a 2-8 ATS slide against the Big East. The Huskies carry positive ATS trends of 9-2 after a non-cover, 9-3 after a SU loss and 9-4-1 as a chalk of 3½-10 points, but they are on ATS declines of 2-9 against winning teams and 1-4 in non-conference play.
The over for Buffalo is on stretches of 6-1 overall and 6-2 against winning teams, but the under has cashed in each of the Bulls’ last eight games against Big East foes and is 13-4 run in its last 17 non-conference contests. Additionally, the under for UConn is on streaks of 5-1 against the MAC, 5-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(3) Pittsburgh (13-0, 5-3 ATS) at (11) Georgetown (10-1, 5-2 ATS)
Five days after going to UConn and handing the Huskies their first loss of the season, Georgetown returns home looking to pin the first defeat on Pitt as these two Big East powers square off for the first time since last year’s conference tournament championship game.
Playing the first of three straight contests against ranked Big East opponents, the Hoyas tipped off their league season with Monday’s impressive 74-63 win at UConn, springing the upset as a 6½-point underdog. Georgetown, which has won seven in a row, jumped out to a 36-27 halftime lead and never looked back as four starters scored in double figures and the Hoyas shot 47.2 percent from the field, making 6 of 13 tries from 3-point range.
Pitt closed out 2007 with Wednesday’s 78-72 Big East-opening victory over Rutgers, falling way short as a 13½-point road chalk. It marked the 11th time in 13 games that the Panthers had scored at least 74 points in a game, but they allowed a season high in points, leading to their smallest margin of victory this season. In fact, after starting out with 11 consecutive double-digit wins, Pitt has won its last two by eight and six points.
The Panthers downed Georgetown twice last season, prevailing 69-60 as a one-point home underdog in mid-January, then rolling to a 74-65 victory as a 5½-point pup in the Big East Tournament title clash. The ‘dog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, the visitor is 9-3 ATS In the last 12 and the SU winner is 7-2 ATS in the last nine (4-0 ATS in the last four).
The Hoyas have the 11th-best scoring defense in the nation (56.3 ppg allowed) and the third-best field-goal percentage (34.3). Meanwhile, Pitt is outscoring its opponents by an average of 20 points per game (78-58) while shooting 47.5 percent from the field and allowing 36.6 percent on defense (seventh best in the nation).
Pitt is on ATS streaks of 5-1 on the road and 4-0 after a non-cover, while Georgetown has covered in four straight lined games but is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after a spread-cover.
For Pitt, the over is on runs of 14-6 overall, 10-1 in Big East action, 7-1 after a non-cover and 29-14 on Saturday. The over is also 6-1 in the Hoyas’ last seven Saturday outings, but otherwise Georgetown is on under stretches of 49-22 at home and 37-17 in conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE:NONE
(24) Ohio State (10-1, 4-4 ATS) at (21) Minnesota (12-1, 5-3 ATS)
Minnesota will try to rebound from its first loss of the season when it hosts Ohio State in the second Big Ten contest for both schools.
After getting through the non-conference portion of their schedule unscathed, the Golden Gophers ran up against 10th-ranked Michigan State in its league lifter Wednesday, falling 70-58 as a one-point home underdog. Minnesota, which saw a 4-0 ATS run come to an end in the defeat, scored fewer than 60 points for the first time this season and allowed 70 for just the fourth time.
Four days after tasting defeat for the first time in an ugly 76-48 home loss to West Virginia, the Buckeyes got back on track with Wednesday’s 68-65 Big Ten win over Iowa, failing as an eight-point home favorite. West Virginia is the only team to have scored more than 68 points against Ohio State, which is surrendering just 56.6 points per game, which ranks 13th in the country.
These teams split their season series last year, with Ohio State winning 76-60 as a seven-point home favorite and the Gophers rolling 71-57 as a 2½-point home choice. The host is on a 7-3 SU roll in this rivalry, but just 5-5 ATS (3-1 ATS last four). The Buckeyes have cashed in four of the last five meetings, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four.
In addition to facing Michigan State, Minnesota beat No. 9 Louisville 70-64 as a nine-point underdog in its only other contest against a ranked opponent. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 2-0 SU and ATS against ranked foes, posting five-point upset victories over Miami (Fla.) and Notre Dame in consecutive games to start December.
The Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall, but 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Big Ten battles. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 on Saturday, however it has now failed to cover in five of its last six Big Ten affairs.
The under is on runs of 38-17-1 for Ohio State on Saturday, 5-1 for Ohio State against winning teams, 17-5 for Minnesota overall, 36-17 for Minnesota overall, 37-14 for Minnesota on Saturday and 6-2 in this rivalry (3-1 at Minnesota).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
Penn State (12-2, 5-2 ATS) at Wisconsin (10-3, 6-5 ATS)
The Nittany Lions, riding a five-game winning streak, face their toughest test of the season when they invade the Kohl Center for a Big Ten clash against Wisconsin.
Penn State, which faces three straight ranked league opponents after this contest, kicked off league play with Wednesday’s 61-57 victory over Northwestern, rallying from a five-point halftime deficit to cover as a 2½-point home favorite. The Nittany Lions have given up more than 65 points just three times this season, and they’re allowing just 55.8 points per game during their winning streak and 60.1 ppg for the season.
The Badgers pummeled 23rd-ranked Michigan 73-61 in Wednesday’s Big Ten debut, covering as a 3½-point road underdog as they bounced back from a five-point home loss to ninth-ranked Texas in their previous game. As usual, Wisconsin has been doing it with defense, surrendering 61 points or fewer in 10 of its 13 games and allowing just 59.8 ppg overall.
The Badgers are on an eight-game SU and ATS winning streak against Penn State (all as a favorite), rolling to a pair of double-digit wins last year: 71-44 as a 17½-point home favorite and 80-55 as a 4½-point road chalk. Wisconsin’s last four home games against Penn State have been decided by point margins of 23, 29, 26 and 36 points.
Penn State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games after a spread-cover, but otherwise the Nittany Lions are on ATS tears of 7-2 overall, 4-1 in Big Ten games and 4-1 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is on pointspread runs of 5-2 overall, 13-5 after a SU victory, 8-1 in Big Ten action, 4-1 versus winning teams and 4-0 on Saturday.
The under is 4-0 in the last four series clashes overall and 4-0 in the last four battles at the Kohl Center. Also, the under is on runs of 4-1 for Penn State overall, 4-1 for Penn State in Big Ten play, 5-0 for Penn State on Saturday, 16-7-1 for Wisconsin at home, 6-2 for Wisconsin in league action and 11-3 for Wisconsin on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER
(14) Tennessee (9-2, 6-3 ATS) at Kansas (9-3, 4-3 ATS)
Tennessee makes the always-difficult trek to Allen Fieldhouse for a non-conference clash with Kansas, which is searching for consistency.
The Volunteers suffered an 88-72 loss at Temple in their last road game, but they’ve come back to win their last three (all at home), including an 80-68 win over 24th-ranked Marquette as a six-point favorite and Monday’s 89-62 rout of Louisiana-Lafayette, barely cashing as a 25½-point chalk. Tennessee’s offense has been clicking all season, topping 70 points in every game so far, and it ranks fifth nationally in scoring offense (84.5 ppg).
The Jayhawks crushed Albany 79-43 in a non-lined home game Tuesday, but they’ve alternated SU wins and losses in their last five contests. Kansas has held nine of its 12 opponents to 62 points or less and is surrendering exactly 62 ppg on the season (37.4 percent shooting), but Bill Self’s squad has yet to face a ranked opponent.
The Vols are in ATS ruts of 2-6 versus the Big 12, 0-4-1 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points and 0-5 when hitting the road after a homestand of three games or more. Conversely, despite their recent struggles, the Jayhawks are on ATS upticks of 10-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 on Saturday, 12-4 in non-conference games and 6-0 against the SEC.
The over is 5-0 in Tennessee’s last five games against the Big 12, but otherwise Bruce Pearl’s squad is on under stretches of 8-2 on the road and 8-2 after a non-cover. The over is also 4-1 in Kansas’ last five overall and 4-0 in its last four after a victory, but the under is 6-2 in its last eight against the SEC and 4-1 in its last five Saturday outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS
(7) Notre Dame (10-2, 4-3 ATS) at St. John’s (9-4, 3-4 ATS)
Notre Dame looks to extend a four-game winning streak and hand St. John’s its fourth straight loss when these Big East foes face off at Carnesecca Arena.
Since suffering a 67-62 loss at Ohio State on Dec. 6, Notre Dame has reeled off four straight double-digit wins, including a 92-82 rout of DePaul as 6½-point road favorite in Wednesday’s Big East opener. The Fighting Irish have scored more than 80 points nine times this year, topping the 90-point barrier four times, but they allowed their second-highest point total of the season against DePaul.
The Red Storm have followed up a seven-game winning streak with three consecutive ugly losses to Virginia Tech (81-67) and Miami (70-56) at home, as well as Wednesday’s conference-opening 75-54 disaster at Providence as an eight-point underdog. Twelve of St. John’s 13 games have been decided by double digits.
In the only meeting between these squads last year, the Irish rolled to a 68-55 home win, but came up just short as a 15-point underdog. Notre Dame is 6-3 SU in the last nine head-to-head clashes, but St. John’s has cashed in the last three, all as an underdog. The host is 7-2 SU in the last nine regular-season battles.
Notre Dame has cashed in six of its last eight league games, but it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games on Saturday and 2-5 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning mark. Meanwhile, the Red Storm are 4-1 ATS in their last five Big East contests and 4-1 ATS in their last five coming off a loss of 20 points or more, but they’ve failed to cover in four straight against winning teams.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these squads, and is also on streaks for Notre Dame of 17-7 overall, 10-4 on the road, 20-9 on Saturday and 20-7 in Big East play. However, St. John’s is riding under streaks of 14-6 overall, 11-2 in Big East play and 9-1 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(10) Michigan State (10-2, 5-4 ATS) at Northwestern (8-3, 4-3-1 ATS)
Michigan State goes in search of its seventh consecutive victory when it travels to Evanston, Ill., for a Big Ten battle with Northwestern.
The Spartans had a successful Big Ten debut Wednesday, beating Minnesota 70-58 as a one-point road chalk to hand the Golden Gophers their first defeat of the season. During its six-game winning streak, Michigan State is averaging 81.8 ppg and giving up only 61.3 ppg, holding all six opponents to 66 points or less, and nine of the team’s 10 victories have been double-digit romps.
The Wildcats came up short in their conference opener Wednesday, falling 61-57 as a 2½-point road underdog. Northwestern, which has lost two of its last three games, has scored 53, 59 and 53 points in its three defeats, the only times this season it has scored fewer than 63 points. Today marks the team’s first game against a ranked opponent.
This has been a one-sided rivalry, with the Spartans winning 38 of the last 40 meetings, including nine double-digit routs in the last 10 games. Last year, Michigan State won 78-62 as a 10-point road chalk and 70-55 at home, but failed as an 18½-point favorite. Still, the Spartans are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Evanston, all as a favorite.
Michigan State is on ATS runs of 4-1 on the road and 5-1 in Big Ten play, but Tom Izzo’s team is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 on Saturday and 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a SU victory. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are in pointspread funks of 6-15 at home and 1-4 in league action.
The under is on stretches of 5-1 for Michigan State overall, 6-2 for Michigan State on the road, 12-5 for Northwestern overall, 5-1 for Northwestern in Big Ten action and 6-2 for Northwestern on Saturday. However, the Wildcats have topped the total in 13 of their last 18 home contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
(6) Wake Forest (12-0, 4-4 ATS) at BYU (11-1, 7-4 ATS)
BYU puts the nation’s longest home winning streak on the line tonight when it hosts sixth-ranked an unbeaten Wake Forest at the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah.
The Cougars hit the road for their last two games, getting clipped 76-75 at 20th-ranked Arizona State as a 3½-point underdog two Saturdays ago – their first defeat of the season – before bouncing back with Tuesday’s 74-68 win over Tulsa as a 1½-point road chalk. BYU has won 53 straight games at the Marriott Center, going 7-0 this year, but only 2-4 ATS in lined contests. The Cougars have scored at least 74 points in all but one game this season, and they’re averaging 82.2 ppg at home (52.4 percent shooting).
Wake Forest, which closes out non-conference play with this game before beginning its ACC season at home against top-ranked North Carolina next Sunday, is coming off Tuesday’s 83-61 rout of Radford in a non-lined home game. The Demon Deacons have eclipsed 80 points in nine games this year, including the last three in a row, and they’re 5-0 in road-neutral site games (2-3 ATS).
The Cougars went to Winston-Salem, N.C., last January as a 1½-point road underdog and fell 79-62. Both teams enter this year’s matchup averaging more than 80 points per game (84.5 for Wake Forest, 80.8 for BYU) and shooting better than 50 percent from the field (51.3 for Wake Forest, 52.2 for BYU). The Demon Deacons are sixth nationally in scoring and third in field-goal percentage, while the Cougars are 26th in scoring and second in field-goal offense.
Wake Forest is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games against teams with a winning record, but 1-5 ATS in its last six true road games, while BYU is mired in pointspread slumps of 2-6 at home, 0-5 against ACC foes and 1-4 after a non-cover.
The over is on runs of 5-2 for Wake on the road, 4-0 for BYU overall and 4-1 for BYU on Saturday. However, the under is 4-0 in the Cougars’ last four against the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Nick Parsons
Game: Buffalo at Connecticut Jan 3 2009 12:00PM
Prediction: Buffalo
Reason: Buffalo U @ Connecticut
International Bowl
The Huskies have been dubbed the home team in this contest and is the favorite (-5). Donald Brown was named the Big East's offensive player of the year by the league's coaches. On the one hand, that's a no-brainer, since he finished with 1,822 yards and 17 touchdowns for a team that had no other offensive weapons for defenses to worry about.
But it's also a significant step for the Huskies program. No UConn player had ever won a major season-ending Big East award until this season, and for a team that seems to view itself as being less respected than its record would indicate, that's a sign that the coaches recognize the talent in Storrs.
The team relies on its defense to hold down the opponents' attack long enough so that its own offense can score enough points to win. Cody Brown, the senior defensive end, leads that attack and had 10 sacks in 2008. A quick look at a few key ATS trends to consider before taking a look at Connecticut is that it is 2-3 ATS this season as a favorite, 2-4 ATS after playing a conference game but a perfect 2-0 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.
With 362 points scored this season, the Bulls have set new marks for points and touchdowns in school history. In three seasons with Coach Gill at the helm, Buffalo has scored 220 points in 2006, 291 last year and 362 this year. They do it with a multiple offense. Sometimes you'll see four wide sets, sometimes they'll line up in the power I. Whatever they're in, they move the ball and score.
A quick look at some key ATS trends for Buffalo sees it a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog, 4-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival but a sub-par 0-1 ATS this year when playing with 2 weeks or more rest.
Meanwhile, the excitement builds. Buffalo ran through its initial allotment of 3,000 International Bowl tickets in less than 48 hours, so expect a spirited game North of the border!
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Game: Buffalo at Connecticut Jan 3 2009 12:00PM
Prediction: Buffalo
Reason: Buffalo U @ Connecticut
International Bowl
The Huskies have been dubbed the home team in this contest and is the favorite (-5). Donald Brown was named the Big East's offensive player of the year by the league's coaches. On the one hand, that's a no-brainer, since he finished with 1,822 yards and 17 touchdowns for a team that had no other offensive weapons for defenses to worry about.
But it's also a significant step for the Huskies program. No UConn player had ever won a major season-ending Big East award until this season, and for a team that seems to view itself as being less respected than its record would indicate, that's a sign that the coaches recognize the talent in Storrs.
The team relies on its defense to hold down the opponents' attack long enough so that its own offense can score enough points to win. Cody Brown, the senior defensive end, leads that attack and had 10 sacks in 2008. A quick look at a few key ATS trends to consider before taking a look at Connecticut is that it is 2-3 ATS this season as a favorite, 2-4 ATS after playing a conference game but a perfect 2-0 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.
With 362 points scored this season, the Bulls have set new marks for points and touchdowns in school history. In three seasons with Coach Gill at the helm, Buffalo has scored 220 points in 2006, 291 last year and 362 this year. They do it with a multiple offense. Sometimes you'll see four wide sets, sometimes they'll line up in the power I. Whatever they're in, they move the ball and score.
A quick look at some key ATS trends for Buffalo sees it a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog, 4-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival but a sub-par 0-1 ATS this year when playing with 2 weeks or more rest.
Meanwhile, the excitement builds. Buffalo ran through its initial allotment of 3,000 International Bowl tickets in less than 48 hours, so expect a spirited game North of the border!
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MTI Sports
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals Jan 3 2009 4:30PM
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
Reason: The Falcons’ performance this season is strongly correlated with the offensive style of their opponent. In general, they cover the spread vs other rushing teams and have trouble vs passing teams. Indeed, Atlanta is 1-5 ATS this season vs a team that has passed 35+ times per game season-to-date and 7-2 ATS this season vs a team that has passed less than 35 times per game season-to-date. More specifically, they are 0-3 ATS vs a team that has ran more than 38 passing plays per game season-to-date and 4-0 ATS against a team that has ran less than 30 passing plays per game season-to-date. The Cardinals, of course, are a passing team, averaging 39.44 attempts per game, which is second in the league.
It is interesting to note that the Falcons have allowed an average of 4.9 yards per carry this season and this is fifth worst in the entire league behind the Lions, Chiefs, Broncos and Rams respectively. The Cardinals have been MONEY against such teams, going 7-0 ATS as a dog when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date, covering by an average of 16.1 ppg. Consider taking Arizona.
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals Jan 3 2009 4:30PM
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
Reason: The Falcons’ performance this season is strongly correlated with the offensive style of their opponent. In general, they cover the spread vs other rushing teams and have trouble vs passing teams. Indeed, Atlanta is 1-5 ATS this season vs a team that has passed 35+ times per game season-to-date and 7-2 ATS this season vs a team that has passed less than 35 times per game season-to-date. More specifically, they are 0-3 ATS vs a team that has ran more than 38 passing plays per game season-to-date and 4-0 ATS against a team that has ran less than 30 passing plays per game season-to-date. The Cardinals, of course, are a passing team, averaging 39.44 attempts per game, which is second in the league.
It is interesting to note that the Falcons have allowed an average of 4.9 yards per carry this season and this is fifth worst in the entire league behind the Lions, Chiefs, Broncos and Rams respectively. The Cardinals have been MONEY against such teams, going 7-0 ATS as a dog when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date, covering by an average of 16.1 ppg. Consider taking Arizona.
Carlo Campanella
Game: Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers Jan 3 Prediction: San Diego Chargers
Reason: All 4 Wild Card games opened with the home team in the Dog role, but these Chargers have reeled off 4 straight wins, including an explosive 41-24 win over Tampa Bay and a 52-21 win over Denver in their final two games to clinch this Playoff spot. At the beginning of the season, the Chargers were expected to easily win the AFC West and now they're playing up to those expectations. San Diego is 5-3 at home this season are 19-8 ATS against AFC foes under Head Coach Norv Turner, including 3-1 ATS in the Playoffs!
7* Play On San Diego
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Game: Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers Jan 3 Prediction: San Diego Chargers
Reason: All 4 Wild Card games opened with the home team in the Dog role, but these Chargers have reeled off 4 straight wins, including an explosive 41-24 win over Tampa Bay and a 52-21 win over Denver in their final two games to clinch this Playoff spot. At the beginning of the season, the Chargers were expected to easily win the AFC West and now they're playing up to those expectations. San Diego is 5-3 at home this season are 19-8 ATS against AFC foes under Head Coach Norv Turner, including 3-1 ATS in the Playoffs!
7* Play On San Diego
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College Basketball
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Ohio State at Minnesota Jan 3 2009 12:00PM
Prediction: Minnesota
Reason: I'm laying the points with Minnesota on Saturday. It didn't take Tubby Smith long to get the Gophers in the top-25. As usual for Tubby Smith teams, Minnesota beats their opponents with in-your-face defensive play, and they normally own big advantages in "hustle" stats. Today, they're hosting a short-handed Ohio State team that looked lost last weekend, losing by 28-points to West Virginia. The Buckeyes are still without forward David Lighty...but garnered a close, hard-fought win over Iowa last time out. But they have "bigger" problems in this matchup. That's because 7'0 center B.J. Mullens and leading rebounder Evan Turner will have to deal with 6'11 Ralph Sampson, Jr., and 6'10 F/C Colton Iverson. The two are beginning to come into their own and should have strong games in today's matchups. Tubby Smith's Gophers really go deep this season, with 11 players seeing at least 10 minutes played per game. And, after falling short in the second half at Michigan State, I believe the Gophers will be ready to take advantage of the Buckeyes. Minny went into East Lansing with a 12-0 mark. But they shot poorly and guard Al Nolen said the team must and will put that game behind them. Now, back home, I expect Minnesota to return to their season-long, strong shooting form. Ohio State's going through a bit of a rough-patch, and Minnesota takes advantage. I'm laying the points with the Gophers on Saturday.
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Scott Spreitzer
Game: Ohio State at Minnesota Jan 3 2009 12:00PM
Prediction: Minnesota
Reason: I'm laying the points with Minnesota on Saturday. It didn't take Tubby Smith long to get the Gophers in the top-25. As usual for Tubby Smith teams, Minnesota beats their opponents with in-your-face defensive play, and they normally own big advantages in "hustle" stats. Today, they're hosting a short-handed Ohio State team that looked lost last weekend, losing by 28-points to West Virginia. The Buckeyes are still without forward David Lighty...but garnered a close, hard-fought win over Iowa last time out. But they have "bigger" problems in this matchup. That's because 7'0 center B.J. Mullens and leading rebounder Evan Turner will have to deal with 6'11 Ralph Sampson, Jr., and 6'10 F/C Colton Iverson. The two are beginning to come into their own and should have strong games in today's matchups. Tubby Smith's Gophers really go deep this season, with 11 players seeing at least 10 minutes played per game. And, after falling short in the second half at Michigan State, I believe the Gophers will be ready to take advantage of the Buckeyes. Minny went into East Lansing with a 12-0 mark. But they shot poorly and guard Al Nolen said the team must and will put that game behind them. Now, back home, I expect Minnesota to return to their season-long, strong shooting form. Ohio State's going through a bit of a rough-patch, and Minnesota takes advantage. I'm laying the points with the Gophers on Saturday.
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Big Al
Game: West Virginia at Seton Hall Jan 3 2009 4:00PM
Prediction: West Virginia
Reason: At 4pm, West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Seton Hall. Bob Huggins squad has ripped off four straight wins since dropping a 3-point decision to Davidson, 68-65, on December 9. And, in its four victories, WVU has held its opponents to just 52.5 ppg, on average, while scoring 78.75 ppg. Seton Hall opened up its Big East schedule with a 24-point blowout loss at Syracuse, and now fall into a 30-70 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off big losses. The Pirates are also 3-11 ATS their last 14 off a loss. Take West Virginia.
Game: West Virginia at Seton Hall Jan 3 2009 4:00PM
Prediction: West Virginia
Reason: At 4pm, West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Seton Hall. Bob Huggins squad has ripped off four straight wins since dropping a 3-point decision to Davidson, 68-65, on December 9. And, in its four victories, WVU has held its opponents to just 52.5 ppg, on average, while scoring 78.75 ppg. Seton Hall opened up its Big East schedule with a 24-point blowout loss at Syracuse, and now fall into a 30-70 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off big losses. The Pirates are also 3-11 ATS their last 14 off a loss. Take West Virginia.
Matt Fargo
Game: New Mexico at UNLV Jan 3 2009 10:30PM
Prediction: UNLV
Reason: At first glace, taking the points looks like the way to go here but the Rebels should cruise here. They are coming off an upset win at Louisville in their last game and that will cause some people to be afraid of a letdown but I for one am not. This is the Mountain West Conference opener for the Rebels (for both teams actually) so while they went a solid 12-2 ATS during the non-conference portion of the schedule, it is now a new season and the goal of winning the conference starts Saturday. UNLV is picked to win the conference and coming off a 12-4 MWC record last season, it should be in good shape to do just that. The Rebels have won seven straight games since dropping back-to-back games at home against California and Cincinnati and they bring in some good momentum especially with that win over the Cardinals. New Mexico picked up its second road win of the season with a victory over rival New Mexico St. but this team is completely different away from home where it is 7-1 on the year. Speaking of home, the Rebels shine at the Thomas and Mack Center. UNLV had a 19-game home win streak snapped in that loss to California and prior to that setback, it was tied for the seventh-longest active streak in the country. UNLV is 45-5 at home since the start of the 2006-07 season and has won 24 straight games against MWC opponents at the on its home floor. This has been a very home dominated series as the host has won six of the last eight meetings and that does not include two UNLV wins in the MWC Tournament that is played on its home floor as well. The Rebels also fall into a solid play against situation. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a win by six points or less that are averaging between 74 and 78 ppg going up against a team allowing between 63 and 67 ppg. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +9.2 ppg. The Rebels are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams that have won between 60 and 80 percent of their games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams shooting above 45 percent while allowing below 42 percent shooting. 3* UNLV Running Rebels
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Game: New Mexico at UNLV Jan 3 2009 10:30PM
Prediction: UNLV
Reason: At first glace, taking the points looks like the way to go here but the Rebels should cruise here. They are coming off an upset win at Louisville in their last game and that will cause some people to be afraid of a letdown but I for one am not. This is the Mountain West Conference opener for the Rebels (for both teams actually) so while they went a solid 12-2 ATS during the non-conference portion of the schedule, it is now a new season and the goal of winning the conference starts Saturday. UNLV is picked to win the conference and coming off a 12-4 MWC record last season, it should be in good shape to do just that. The Rebels have won seven straight games since dropping back-to-back games at home against California and Cincinnati and they bring in some good momentum especially with that win over the Cardinals. New Mexico picked up its second road win of the season with a victory over rival New Mexico St. but this team is completely different away from home where it is 7-1 on the year. Speaking of home, the Rebels shine at the Thomas and Mack Center. UNLV had a 19-game home win streak snapped in that loss to California and prior to that setback, it was tied for the seventh-longest active streak in the country. UNLV is 45-5 at home since the start of the 2006-07 season and has won 24 straight games against MWC opponents at the on its home floor. This has been a very home dominated series as the host has won six of the last eight meetings and that does not include two UNLV wins in the MWC Tournament that is played on its home floor as well. The Rebels also fall into a solid play against situation. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a win by six points or less that are averaging between 74 and 78 ppg going up against a team allowing between 63 and 67 ppg. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +9.2 ppg. The Rebels are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams that have won between 60 and 80 percent of their games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams shooting above 45 percent while allowing below 42 percent shooting. 3* UNLV Running Rebels
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NBA
Marc Lawrence
Game: New Jersey Nets at Miami Heat Jan 3 2009 7:35PM
Prediction: New Jersey Nets
Reason: Kudos on the nice job by 1st year head coach Erik Spoelstra. He’s taken the Heat from the outhouse to the pent… well, not quite that far, but at least they are doing their business with indoors with plumbing. Contributing to their success have been 99-94 and 106-103 victories over New Jersey this season, thus setting up a double-revenge payback for the Nets in South Beach this evening. Playing here has been much to the Nets liking, too, as evidenced by their 8-2 ATS mark the last 4 years. If there has been one hurdle Miami has tripped over under Spoelstra it’s been laying points where they are just 4-10 ATS, including 1-6 ATS off a win (check last night’s result at Orlando). Look for the Heat to turn cold for the 4th time in a row (0-3 SU and ATS) in games after Magic encounters.
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Marc Lawrence
Game: New Jersey Nets at Miami Heat Jan 3 2009 7:35PM
Prediction: New Jersey Nets
Reason: Kudos on the nice job by 1st year head coach Erik Spoelstra. He’s taken the Heat from the outhouse to the pent… well, not quite that far, but at least they are doing their business with indoors with plumbing. Contributing to their success have been 99-94 and 106-103 victories over New Jersey this season, thus setting up a double-revenge payback for the Nets in South Beach this evening. Playing here has been much to the Nets liking, too, as evidenced by their 8-2 ATS mark the last 4 years. If there has been one hurdle Miami has tripped over under Spoelstra it’s been laying points where they are just 4-10 ATS, including 1-6 ATS off a win (check last night’s result at Orlando). Look for the Heat to turn cold for the 4th time in a row (0-3 SU and ATS) in games after Magic encounters.
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NHL
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Columbus Blue Jackets at St. Louis Blues Jan 3 Prediction: Columbus Blue Jackets
Reason: Both team's played last night with Columbus winning and the Blues losing. The Blue Jackets come into this one riding a 4-game winning streak. Over the last 4 games they have outscored the opposition 13-1. Columbus is getting solid goaltending and the offense is scoring timely goals. The Blue Jackets are playing their best and most consistent hockey in a long time. The Blues have lost 10 of their last 12 games. In their last 60 games the Blues are 19-41. St. Louis is 2-6 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Play on the Columbus Blue Jackets -.
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Jimmy The Moose
Game: Columbus Blue Jackets at St. Louis Blues Jan 3 Prediction: Columbus Blue Jackets
Reason: Both team's played last night with Columbus winning and the Blues losing. The Blue Jackets come into this one riding a 4-game winning streak. Over the last 4 games they have outscored the opposition 13-1. Columbus is getting solid goaltending and the offense is scoring timely goals. The Blue Jackets are playing their best and most consistent hockey in a long time. The Blues have lost 10 of their last 12 games. In their last 60 games the Blues are 19-41. St. Louis is 2-6 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Play on the Columbus Blue Jackets -.
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