Maryland at Memphis Mar 21 2009 3:20PM
PICK: Memphis
Your pick will be graded at: -9.5 Belmont
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: 9* HIGHEST RATED MASSIVE MISMATCH- 100% RUN
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 9* Memphis (-) vs. Maryland, Saturday at 3:20 PM EST
The Tigers definitely got their scare in round one. The Cal State Northridge Matadors played mighty Memphis close the entire game until a late spurt by the Tigers gave them an 11-point win. It was a poorly played game by Memphis, especially on the defensive end, and head coach John Calipari was not happy with his team’s effort. After the game he insinuated his team got “a little full of themselves” and didn’t play with the toughness and effort that got them to this point. Calipari will REALLY get his team’s attention during their short one day break and expect the Tigers to play very well on Saturday.
Maryland came out with a nice win in round one over California. The Terps shot very well at 49%, however you must consider the defense they faced. The Bears had allowed an average of 44.2% on the year (203rd nationally) and opposing offenses up 1.002 points per possession on their porous stop unit (200th nationally). Keep in mind, this is not a potent Maryland offense. They shot only 42% on the year overall and just 41% in ACC play (11th in the league). Look for them to come back to earth as they now face off against the best defense in the nation so look for a huge drop off from their previous output. The Tigers allow opponents to shoot only 36.4% and just 0.827 points per possession (both #1 nationally). Prior to Thursday’s game, Memphis had allowed more than 60 points just once in their previous 12 games.
Another huge advantage for Memphis is this game will be rebounding. The Tigers are very strong and athletic up front which resulted in them being one of the best rebounding teams on the country. That’s not a good match up for Maryland who finished 11th in the ACC on the boards. The Terps were actually out rebounded in 9 of their last 10 games. Memphis will get a bunch of extra shots because of their effort on the boards and on defense. That will push them to an easy win on Saturday. Remember, this team is mad and their coach let them have it after Thursday’s win. The Tigers get back to what got them here and coast on Saturday.
Best of Luck, Lee.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS:
betED 5Dimes Logan's
Maryland
Memphis 131
-9 -110
131
-9.5 -110
131
-9.5 -110
PICK: Memphis
Your pick will be graded at: -9.5 Belmont
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: 9* HIGHEST RATED MASSIVE MISMATCH- 100% RUN
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 9* Memphis (-) vs. Maryland, Saturday at 3:20 PM EST
The Tigers definitely got their scare in round one. The Cal State Northridge Matadors played mighty Memphis close the entire game until a late spurt by the Tigers gave them an 11-point win. It was a poorly played game by Memphis, especially on the defensive end, and head coach John Calipari was not happy with his team’s effort. After the game he insinuated his team got “a little full of themselves” and didn’t play with the toughness and effort that got them to this point. Calipari will REALLY get his team’s attention during their short one day break and expect the Tigers to play very well on Saturday.
Maryland came out with a nice win in round one over California. The Terps shot very well at 49%, however you must consider the defense they faced. The Bears had allowed an average of 44.2% on the year (203rd nationally) and opposing offenses up 1.002 points per possession on their porous stop unit (200th nationally). Keep in mind, this is not a potent Maryland offense. They shot only 42% on the year overall and just 41% in ACC play (11th in the league). Look for them to come back to earth as they now face off against the best defense in the nation so look for a huge drop off from their previous output. The Tigers allow opponents to shoot only 36.4% and just 0.827 points per possession (both #1 nationally). Prior to Thursday’s game, Memphis had allowed more than 60 points just once in their previous 12 games.
Another huge advantage for Memphis is this game will be rebounding. The Tigers are very strong and athletic up front which resulted in them being one of the best rebounding teams on the country. That’s not a good match up for Maryland who finished 11th in the ACC on the boards. The Terps were actually out rebounded in 9 of their last 10 games. Memphis will get a bunch of extra shots because of their effort on the boards and on defense. That will push them to an easy win on Saturday. Remember, this team is mad and their coach let them have it after Thursday’s win. The Tigers get back to what got them here and coast on Saturday.
Best of Luck, Lee.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS:
betED 5Dimes Logan's
Maryland
Memphis 131
-9 -110
131
-9.5 -110
131
-9.5 -110
Antony Dinero
New York at Orlando
Play: Orlando -11.5
New York comes into Central Florida limping after getting it handed to them at home by the Kings, and although they're not turning on Mike D'Antoni, it does seems like legs and the season are wearing on a lot of the Knicks. Orlando is among the league's most conditioned teams, shoot it better than the Knicks, and have boards and inside force on tap with Dwight Howard dominating. No Kryptonate at Amway on Saturday -- Orlando wins big. Lay the 11.5.
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New York at Orlando
Play: Orlando -11.5
New York comes into Central Florida limping after getting it handed to them at home by the Kings, and although they're not turning on Mike D'Antoni, it does seems like legs and the season are wearing on a lot of the Knicks. Orlando is among the league's most conditioned teams, shoot it better than the Knicks, and have boards and inside force on tap with Dwight Howard dominating. No Kryptonate at Amway on Saturday -- Orlando wins big. Lay the 11.5.
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MTi SPORTS
Washington at Phoenix
Play: Over 230
The Suns just might get to 150 here. They are facing a Wizards’ squad that is playing the fourth game of a four-games-in-five-days road trip and they allowed 50%+ shooting in each of the first three. The Wizards will be in no condition to play defense here, when they ranthe floor with the Nuggets last night in Denver.The Wizards are 6-0 OU (+11.0 ppg) when they allowed at least ten points more than their season-to-date average for two straight games, 4-0 OU (+21.8 ppg) with no rest after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field and 4-0 OU (+14.0 ppg) after a road loss in which they had more turnovers than assists. All three of the preceding trends in performance are from THIS season. Also, Washington is 5-0 OU (+14.4 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Antawn Jamison had more turnovers than assists and 5-0 OU (+17.7 ppg) on the road after two away games in which Andray Blatche took fewer than 10 shots in each.Phoenix is off a 126-116 win over the 76ers in which Shaq led all scorers with 26 points, Matt Barnes was a poor 2-of-9 from the field and the Suns committed only eight turnovers. Well, Phoenix is 8-0 OU (+13.2 ppg) with two or more days of rest after a double digit home win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight and 7-0 OU (+7.7 ppg) as a favorite with two or more days of rest after a double digit home win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.Since January, the Suns are 6-0 OU (+17.5 ppg) as a favorite after a double digit win in which they shot at least 50% from the field including 4-0 OU (+21.6 ppg) as a favorite after a game in which they shot at least 55% from the field. Also, Phoenix is 7-0 OU (+18.1 ppg) since January after a win at home in which Steve Nash was NOT the Suns' high scorer and 5-0 OU (+14.3 ppg) after a win at home in which Matt Barnes scored fewer than 10 points.In their first meeting this season, the Suns won 103-87. Shaq was 10-of 14 from the floor and 9-of-10(!) from the free throw line, but had only two assists. Steve Nash had 15 assists and 14 points. Phoenix is 11-0 OU (+22.3 ppg) after winning the previous matchup in which Shaquille O'Neal had more turnovers than assists and 5-0 OU (+19.1 ppg) after winning the previous matchup in which Steve Nash had more assists than points. Check out those average margins. Yow.As mentioned previously, this is a scheduling spot in which the Wizards simply don’t play defense. Washington is 7-0 OU when they are playing in at least their third straight road game and they have no rest, going over by an average of 18.6 ppg. In their most recent game, the 7th of this month, the Wizards lost 119-103 in Dallas with the total at 198. With no one on the Wizards to slow Shaq down, the Suns should shoot 60%+ from the field and not have to play defense at all. Take the OVER as the Wizards can score some points in garbage time.
MTi’s FORECAST: PHOENIX 152 Washington 128
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Washington at Phoenix
Play: Over 230
The Suns just might get to 150 here. They are facing a Wizards’ squad that is playing the fourth game of a four-games-in-five-days road trip and they allowed 50%+ shooting in each of the first three. The Wizards will be in no condition to play defense here, when they ranthe floor with the Nuggets last night in Denver.The Wizards are 6-0 OU (+11.0 ppg) when they allowed at least ten points more than their season-to-date average for two straight games, 4-0 OU (+21.8 ppg) with no rest after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field and 4-0 OU (+14.0 ppg) after a road loss in which they had more turnovers than assists. All three of the preceding trends in performance are from THIS season. Also, Washington is 5-0 OU (+14.4 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Antawn Jamison had more turnovers than assists and 5-0 OU (+17.7 ppg) on the road after two away games in which Andray Blatche took fewer than 10 shots in each.Phoenix is off a 126-116 win over the 76ers in which Shaq led all scorers with 26 points, Matt Barnes was a poor 2-of-9 from the field and the Suns committed only eight turnovers. Well, Phoenix is 8-0 OU (+13.2 ppg) with two or more days of rest after a double digit home win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight and 7-0 OU (+7.7 ppg) as a favorite with two or more days of rest after a double digit home win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.Since January, the Suns are 6-0 OU (+17.5 ppg) as a favorite after a double digit win in which they shot at least 50% from the field including 4-0 OU (+21.6 ppg) as a favorite after a game in which they shot at least 55% from the field. Also, Phoenix is 7-0 OU (+18.1 ppg) since January after a win at home in which Steve Nash was NOT the Suns' high scorer and 5-0 OU (+14.3 ppg) after a win at home in which Matt Barnes scored fewer than 10 points.In their first meeting this season, the Suns won 103-87. Shaq was 10-of 14 from the floor and 9-of-10(!) from the free throw line, but had only two assists. Steve Nash had 15 assists and 14 points. Phoenix is 11-0 OU (+22.3 ppg) after winning the previous matchup in which Shaquille O'Neal had more turnovers than assists and 5-0 OU (+19.1 ppg) after winning the previous matchup in which Steve Nash had more assists than points. Check out those average margins. Yow.As mentioned previously, this is a scheduling spot in which the Wizards simply don’t play defense. Washington is 7-0 OU when they are playing in at least their third straight road game and they have no rest, going over by an average of 18.6 ppg. In their most recent game, the 7th of this month, the Wizards lost 119-103 in Dallas with the total at 198. With no one on the Wizards to slow Shaq down, the Suns should shoot 60%+ from the field and not have to play defense at all. Take the OVER as the Wizards can score some points in garbage time.
MTi’s FORECAST: PHOENIX 152 Washington 128
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